Mount Tarcoola

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mount Tarcoola reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mount Tarcoola's population is estimated at around 3,468 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 211 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,257 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 3,426 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,635 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Mount Tarcoola has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.8%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by natural growth contributing approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data and to estimate growth across all areas post-2032, AreaSearch utilises growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its latest Greater Capital Region projections released in 2023 based on 2022 data. Future population trends project an above median growth for regional areas with Mount Tarcoola expected to grow by 592 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 17.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mount Tarcoola according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mount Tarcoola had 16 dwelling approvals over the period from January 2017 to December 2021. This averages out to approximately three dwelling approvals annually during this time span. The low development levels in Mount Tarcoola reflect its rural nature, with housing needs typically driven by local specific requirements rather than broader market demand.

It is important to note that the small sample size can lead to significant influences on annual growth and relativity statistics from individual development projects. Comparing Mount Tarcoola's construction activity with the Rest of WA and national averages shows significantly lower levels. Recent building activity in Mount Tarcoola has consisted entirely of detached houses, maintaining its rural character with an emphasis on space. The area has approximately 579 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mount Tarcoola is projected to grow by 613 residents by the year 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Mount Tarcoola has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 38thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that may impact the area. Notable ones include the Revised Wandina Structure Plan, Geraldton Cycling Network Expansion Project, Geraldton Cycle Network Expansion Project, and Mount Tarcoola Brand Highway Residential Development Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Mount Tarcoola ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Mount Tarcoola has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%. Employment stability has been consistent over the past year.

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data up until September 2025, 1,848 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Rest of WA's rate of 3.3%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of WA's 67.2%. Census responses show that only 4.2% of residents work from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

Mount Tarcoola has a particularly strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at just 2.8% compared to the regional average of 9.3%. The predominantly residential area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 0.4% while labour force grew by 0.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of WA recorded employment growth of 1.4%, labour force growth of 1.2%, and a decrease in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can provide further insight into potential future demand within Mount Tarcoola. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mount Tarcoola's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Mount Tarcoola suburb shows median taxpayer income of $52,501 and average income of $65,527 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is slightly lower than national average, contrasting with Rest of WA's median income of $59,973 and average income of $74,392. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $57,552 (median) and $71,831 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Mount Tarcoola cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate 36.9% of population (1,279 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen in surrounding region where 31.1% similarly occupy this range. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. Area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Mount Tarcoola is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Mount Tarcoola's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.2% houses and 4.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro WA's 88.5% houses and 11.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Tarcoola was at 31.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.4% and rented ones at 25.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro WA's average of $1,560. The median weekly rent in Mount Tarcoola was $300, compared to Non-Metro WA's $265. Nationally, Mount Tarcoola's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mount Tarcoola has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.5% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 31.0% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 23.1% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of WA.

Educational outcomes in Mount Tarcoola fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.5%, significantly lower than the Australian average of 30.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (33.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mount Tarcoola has 19 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together offer 75 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 181 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, and cars remain the primary mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 4.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 10 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Mount Tarcoola's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Mount Tarcoola's health data shows positive outcomes, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. Common health issues are seen across all age groups, with asthma and mental health impacting 8.7% and 7.8% of residents respectively.

Around 68.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 69.3% in Rest of WA. Private health cover is at approximately 53%, slightly higher than the SA2 average but lower than Rest of WA's 56.4%. The working-age population has typical health outcomes. Seniors make up 15.7% (544 people) of Mount Tarcoola's population, lower than Rest of WA's 19.2%, with above-average health outcomes and national rankings higher than the general population.

Mount Tarcoola ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Tarcoola's population was found to have low cultural diversity, with 88.9% being citizens, 84.3% born in Australia, and 91.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, accounting for 51.3%. Islam was overrepresented compared to the Rest of WA, with 2.4% versus 0.8%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (30.2%), English (29.9%), and Irish (8.1%). Notably, Filipino, Australian Aboriginal, and Macedonian groups had higher representations in Mount Tarcoola compared to regional averages: Filipino at 2.0% vs 1.2%, Australian Aboriginal at 4.2% vs 6.1%, and Macedonian at 0.2% vs 0.1%.

Mount Tarcoola's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Mount Tarcoola has a median age of 38 years, which is slightly below the Rest of WA average of 40 but aligns with the Australian median of 38. The 15-24 cohort is notably overrepresented at 13.2% compared to the Rest of WA average, while the 55-64 age group is underrepresented at 10.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 25 to 34 grew from 12.0% to 13.8%, and the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 12.2% to 13.3%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group declined from 12.3% to 10.5%, and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 14.6% to 13.1%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Mount Tarcoola's age profile by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 43%, adding 206 residents to reach 685. Meanwhile, the 85+ group is expected to contract by 1 resident.