Mount Tarcoola

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mount Tarcoola reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mount Tarcoola's population, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date, was around 3,455 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 198 people from the 2021 Census total of 3,257, indicating a growth rate of approximately 6.1%. The suburb's population density is calculated at 1,629 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Mount Tarcoola has shown consistent growth with an annual compound growth rate of 0.8%, outperforming comparable SA3 areas. Natural growth contributed roughly 64.0% to overall population gains during recent periods in the suburb. AreaSearch's projections for Mount Tarcoola are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data and post-2032 estimates, AreaSearch employs growth rates by age cohort provided by the ABS in its Greater Capital Region projections from 2023, based on 2022 data. Future population trends indicate an above median growth for regional areas nationally, with Mount Tarcoola projected to grow by 594 persons to reach a total of 4,049 by 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 18.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mount Tarcoola according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mount Tarcoola had two dwelling approvals annually between 2016 and 2020. This low development activity reflects its rural nature, with housing needs driving projects rather than market demand. Note that the small sample size can significantly impact annual growth figures.

Mount Tarcoola has less construction activity than Rest of WA and is below national averages. Recent building activity consists solely of detached houses, maintaining the area's rural character. There are approximately 695 people per dwelling approval in Mount Tarcoola, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mount Tarcoola is expected to grow by 623 residents by 2041.

If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Mount Tarcoola has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 6thth percentile nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely impacting the region. Notable ones include the Revised Wandina Structure Plan, Geraldton Cycling Network Expansion Project, Geraldton Cycle Network Expansion Project, and Mount Tarcoola Brand Highway Residential Development Plan. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Mount Tarcoola demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Mount Tarcoola has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.2%.

The area's unemployment rate is 1.0% lower than Rest of WA's rate of 3.2%, and workforce participation is higher at 66.4% compared to Rest of WA's 59.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 2.8% compared to 9.3% regionally.

Labour force data from Jun-25 to Jul-26 showed a decrease of 2.4%, while employment declined by 2.5%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of WA saw employment growth of 1.1% and labour force growth of 0.5%, with a fall in unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mount Tarcoola's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

Mount Tarcoola had a median taxpayer income of $52,501 and an average of $65,527 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This is approximately average nationally, contrasting with Rest of WA's median income of $57,323 and average income of $71,163. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 14.2% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,956 (median) and $74,832 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Mount Tarcoola cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate 36.9% of the population (1,274 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen the surrounding region where 31.1% similarly occupy this range. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Mount Tarcoola is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Mount Tarcoola's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 95.2% houses and 4.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro WA's 87.5% houses and 12.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Tarcoola stood at 31.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.4% and rented ones at 25.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, aligning with Non-Metro WA's average, while the median weekly rent was $300, compared to Non-Metro WA's $250. Nationally, Mount Tarcoola's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Mount Tarcoola has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.5% of all households, including 28.9% couples with children, 31.0% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 23.1% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of WA average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Mount Tarcoola fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 16.5%, significantly below the Australian average of 30.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 12.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.2%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.4%) and certificates (33.1%).

Educational participation is notably high at 30.5%, including 10.4% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education. Mount Tarcoola Primary School provides local educational services within Mount Tarcoola, with an enrollment of 390 students as of the latest data. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 11.3, below the regional average of 16.8, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mount Tarcoola has 19 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by four different routes that together offer 75 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is rated as excellent, with residents typically living within 181 meters of their nearest stop.

On average, there are 10 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Mount Tarcoola's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Mount Tarcoola residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with common conditions seen across both young and old age groups at a fairly standard level.

Private health cover is held by approximately 53% of Mount Tarcoola's total population (~1,838 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area rate. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (affecting 8.7% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 7.8%). A majority of residents (68.7%) report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 66.8% in Rest of WA. Mount Tarcoola has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.3% (563 people), compared to the 18.3% seen in Rest of WA. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Mount Tarcoola ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Tarcoola's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.9% of its population being citizens, 84.3% born in Australia, and 91.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Mount Tarcoola, comprising 51.3% of people there, while Islam is overrepresented at 2.4%, compared to 1.3% across Rest of WA. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (30.2%), English (29.9%), and Irish (8.1%).

Notably, Filipino (2.0%) and Australian Aboriginal (4.2%) populations are overrepresented in Mount Tarcoola compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 6.9%, respectively. Macedonian ancestry is also slightly overrepresented at 0.2%.

Mount Tarcoola's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Mount Tarcoola is 39 years, similar to Rest of WA's average of 40 and closely aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group constitutes 13.0% of the population in Mount Tarcoola, higher than Rest of WA's percentage. Conversely, the 55-64 age cohort makes up 10.6%, lower than Rest of WA's figure. According to data from the Census conducted on 9 August 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 12.0% to 13.2%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 12.3% to 10.6%, and the 5-14 age group has dropped from 14.6% to 13.3%. Population forecasts for Mount Tarcoola in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 50%, reaching 686 people from its current total of 456. Conversely, both the 85+ and 75-84 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.