Medowie

Medowie lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Medowie is around 12,126, reflecting an increase of 1,247 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 11.5% rise from the previous population count of 10,879. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of the ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of new addresses, is 11,835. This results in a population density ratio of 271 persons per square kilometer. Medowie's growth rate since the 2021 Census exceeded that of its SA3 area (5.5%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 73.0% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb of Medowie is forecasted to increase its population by 5,130 persons, reflecting a total gain of 41.0% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Medowie among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Medowie approved around 161 new homes per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 808 homes were approved, with an additional 57 approved in FY-26 to date. This results in an average of 1.7 new residents per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years. However, this rate has increased to 4.7 people per dwelling over the last two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

The average construction value for new properties is $369,000. In FY-26, Medowie recorded $65.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating high local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Medowie has 135.0% more building activity per person. This level is above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. New development consists of 70.0% detached houses and 30.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature while offering more diverse housing options. The location has approximately 152 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Future projections estimate Medowie to add 4,975 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Medowie has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 14 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Stockton Rifle Range Development - Fern Bay, Medowie Precinct F Residential Development, Medowie New High School, and The Bower Medowie. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Medowie shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Medowie has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.7%, lower than the Rest of NSW's 3.8%. As of September 2025, 5,871 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below the regional average and workforce participation at 64.7%.

Census data shows that 25.3% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and construction. The area specializes in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level, but has lower representation in agriculture, forestry & fishing at 0.8% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Local employment opportunities appear limited, with a decrease in labour force (-2.3%) and employment (-1.9%) over a 12-month period, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points.

In contrast, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and an increase in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with Medowie's employment mix suggesting local growth should be around 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023. Medowie suburb had median taxpayer income of $59,012 and average income of $72,259. These figures exceed national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $64,240 (median) and $78,661 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, Medowie's household, family and personal incomes cluster around the 63rd percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 39.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999, aligning with regional levels at 29.9%. After housing costs, 84.9% of income remains for other expenses. Medowie's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Medowie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Medowie, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 97.3% houses and 2.8% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Medowie was 30.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.0% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Medowie was $1,950, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Medowie was $430, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Medowie's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Medowie features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.4% of all households, including 41.8% couples with children, 29.9% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 15.6%, with lone person households at 14.5% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Medowie aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 47.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.6%) and certificates (35.1%). Educational participation is high at 31.2%, with 12.0% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.8% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Medowie has 163 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 66 different routes that together facilitate 653 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 196 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents in this predominantly residential area commute outward using their cars, which remain the dominant mode of transport at 97%. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling, a figure that exceeds the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a significant 25.3% of residents work from home, a trend potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages out to 93 trips per day, which equates to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centerpoint.

Health performance in Medowie is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Medowie faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~6,728 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 10.3 and 9.3% of residents respectively, while 64.9% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of 25th June 2021, the area has 16.9% of residents aged 65 and over (2,049 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Medowie is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Medowie has a cultural diversity level below average, with 90.3% of its population born in Australia, 94.4% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Medowie, comprising 53.9% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups in Medowie are Australian (34.2%), English (31.0%), and Scottish (7.6%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 4.7% in Medowie than regionally (4.6%), Maltese at 0.8% compared to 0.4%, and Dutch at 1.5% versus 1.0%.

Medowie's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Medowie is 37 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and close to the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 years make up 14.7% of the population, while those aged 65-74 years comprise 9.7%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of those aged 75 to 84 years has increased from 4.4% to 5.8%, while the percentages for those aged 5-14 years have decreased from 16.3% to 14.7%, and for those aged 45 to 54 years, it has dropped from 13.7% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate that the age cohort of 25-34 years is expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 845 people (60%), from 1,418 to 2,264.