Thornton - Millers Forest
Statistical Area - sa2

Thornton - Millers Forest lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Thornton-Millers Forest's population is 19,492 as of August 2025. This is an increase of 3,593 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,899. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 19,023 in June 2024 and an additional 1,062 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 308 persons per square kilometer. Thornton-Millers Forest's growth rate of 22.6% since the 2021 census exceeds both the non-metro area (4.8%) and state averages, making it a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 70.7% to this population gain.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth, placing Thornton-Millers Forest in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 19,535 persons based on latest population numbers, recording a total gain of 97.8% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Thornton - Millers Forest was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Thornton - Millers Forest has seen approximately 347 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 1,738 homes were approved, with a further 72 approved in FY26 so far. Each year, an average of 3.3 new residents per dwelling has been recorded between FY21 and FY25.

This high demand exceeds the supply of new dwellings, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value for new dwellings is $393,000, which is below regional levels, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers in the area. Commercial approvals have totaled $4.9 million this financial year, indicating a primarily residential nature of the area. Compared to the rest of NSW, Thornton - Millers Forest shows 82.0% higher construction activity per person, providing ample choice for buyers. However, construction activity has eased recently. This high level of activity reflects strong developer confidence in the area.

New building activity comprises 74.0% detached houses and 26.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes. This represents a shift from the current housing composition, which is 95.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles that require more diverse housing options. With approximately 64 people per approval, Thornton - Millers Forest reflects its status as a developing area. Future projections indicate that by 2041, the area will add around 19,066 residents. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Thornton - Millers Forest has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 24 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Raymond Terrace Sub-Precincts Master Plan, Chisholm Plaza, Thornton Rail Bridge Duplication, and Sophia Waters Estate. The following details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Thornton - Millers Forest demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Thornton - Millers Forest has an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of June 2025, with 9,695 residents employed. This rate is 1.7% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation in the area is 72.2%, well above Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.9% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

In the year to June 2025, labour force decreased by 4.2% and employment decreased by 4.4%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment. Meanwhile, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1%, with a labour force growth of 0.3% and a higher unemployment rate increase of 0.4 percentage points. State-wide, NSW's employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) to Sep-25, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornton - Millers Forest's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3%% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Thornton-Millers Forest's median income among taxpayers was $55,417 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $64,523 during the same period. These figures compare to national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimated median income as of March 2025 would be approximately $61,291. Estimated average income by the same period is around $71,362. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Thornton-Millers Forest rank between the 72nd and 79th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis reveals that 40.7% of residents earn between $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region where 29.9% fall into this category. High housing costs consume 15.4% of income in Thornton-Millers Forest. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Thornton - Millers Forest is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Thornton - Millers Forest's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 94.8% houses and 5.3% other dwellings. Non-Metro NSW had 87.1% houses and 13.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornton - Millers Forest was at 23.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented at 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,015, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,862. Median weekly rent was $420, higher than Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents substantially higher at $375.

Thornton - Millers Forest features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 84.4% of all households, including 43.2% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 15.6%, with lone person households at 12.9% and group households at 2.8%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.7.

Thornton - Millers Forest shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has lower university qualification rates at 18.8%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 31.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.1% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education. Thornton - Millers Forest's 5 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,623 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 993) with balanced educational opportunities, including 3 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (13.5) are below the regional average (17.7), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornton-Millers Forest has 114 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 107 individual routes that facilitate 5,276 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 235 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 753 trips per day, equating to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornton - Millers Forest's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Thornton-Millers Forest's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions among its general population are somewhat typical but higher than the national average for older cohorts. Private health cover is at approximately 52% of the total population (~10,116 people), which leads the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.7 and 9.6% of residents respectively. 67.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. As of 2016, 11.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (2,233 people), which is lower than the 15.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those for the broader population.

Thornton - Millers Forest ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornton-Millers Forest had a cultural diversity below average, with 88.5% of its population born in Australia, 93.3% being citizens, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, accounting for 56.9% of people. This figure is similar to the 57.0% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.5%), English (30.4%), and Scottish (7.1%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.4%, compared to 5.1% regionally. Welsh and Korean populations were also notably different: Welsh at 0.6% versus 0.6% regionally, and Korean at 0.3% versus 0.1%.

Thornton - Millers Forest's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age in Thornton - Millers Forest is 33 years, which is lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and significantly below the national average of 38. The proportion of individuals aged 25-34 is notably higher at 17.6% compared to Rest of NSW, while those aged 65-74 are underrepresented at 7.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the population aged 35 to 44 has increased from 14.6% to 16.0%, while the 55 to 64 group has declined from 10.4% to 8.9% and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 11.7% to 10.5%. By 2041, forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Thornton - Millers Forest, with the 35 to 44 age group projected to grow by 106%, reaching 6,423 people from its current figure of 3,122.