Thornton - Millers Forest
Statistical Area - sa2

Thornton - Millers Forest lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Thornton-Millers Forest's population, as of Aug 2025, is approximately 19,492. This figure represents a growth of 3,593 people (22.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,899. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 19,023 as of June 2024 and an additional 1,062 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 308 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential for further development. Thornton-Millers Forest's growth rate exceeded non-metro areas (4.8%) and the state level, placing it as a growth leader regionally. Interstate migration was the primary driver contributing approximately 70.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends predict exceptional growth, placing Thornton-Millers Forest in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 19,535 persons based on latest numbers, recording a gain of 97.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Thornton - Millers Forest was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Thornton-Millers Forest has seen approximately 347 new homes approved annually. Development approval data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that between Financial Year 2021 (FY21) and FY25, around 1,738 homes were approved. As of May 2026, 44 approvals have been recorded in FY26. On average, each home built over the past five financial years accommodates about 3.3 new residents.

This has led to significant demand exceeding supply, contributing to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost of new properties is $393,000, which is below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options for purchasers. In FY26, commercial approvals totalled $4.9 million, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Thornton-Millers Forest has 82.0% more construction activity per person as of May 2026, offering greater choice for buyers despite a recent slowdown in building activity. This is significantly above the national average, suggesting robust developer interest in the area. New building activity comprises approximately 74.0% detached houses and 26.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes.

This represents a shift from the current housing stock, which is predominantly houses (95.0%), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. With around 64 people per approval, Thornton-Millers Forest reflects an area experiencing development. Looking ahead, projections indicate that the population is expected to grow by approximately 19,066 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with growth projections, although buyers may face heightened competition as the population increases.

Thornton - Millers Forest has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include the Raymond Terrace Sub-Precincts Master Plan, Chisholm Plaza, Thornton Rail Bridge Duplication, and Sophia Waters Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Thornton - Millers Forest demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Thornton - Millers Forest has an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of June 2025. It has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented.

There are 9,695 residents in work, which is 1.7% below Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is high at 72.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade. The area has a strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.9% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Over the past year, labour force decreased by 4.2%, and employment decreased by 4.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1%, labour force grow by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Thornton - Millers Forest's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Thornton-Millers Forest has an average national income level according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers is $55,417 and the average income stands at $64,523. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which are $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $61,291 (median) and $71,362 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Thornton-Millers Forest rank highly nationally, between the 72nd and 79th percentiles. Income analysis shows that the largest segment comprises 40.7% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (7,933 residents), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 29.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 15.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Thornton - Millers Forest is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Thornton - Millers Forest's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 94.8% houses and 5.3% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 87.1% houses and 13.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornton - Millers Forest was at 23.9%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 46.2% and rented dwellings making up 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,015, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,862. The median weekly rent figure stood at $420, higher than Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, Thornton - Millers Forest's median monthly mortgage repayment of $2,015 was higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and its median weekly rent of $420 was substantially above the national figure of $375.

Thornton - Millers Forest features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.4% of all households, including 43.2% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.6%, with lone person households at 12.9% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.7.

Thornton - Millers Forest shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 18.8%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (31.9%).

Educational participation is high at 30.8%, including primary education (11.1%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (4.6%). Thornton-Millers Forest's five schools have a combined enrollment of 2,623 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents stand at 13.5, below the regional average of 17.7, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornton-Millers Forest has 114 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 107 unique routes that facilitate 5,276 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents generally situated 235 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 753 daily trips across all routes, equating to about 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornton - Millers Forest's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Thornton-Millers Forest's health metrics are close to national benchmarks, with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Approximately 52% (10,116 people) of its total population has private health cover, which is slightly higher than the average for SA2 areas. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.7% and 9.6% of residents respectively. Around 67.4% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. The area has an older population, with 11.5% (2,233 people) aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 15.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to these challenges.

Thornton - Millers Forest ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornton-Millers Forest had a cultural diversity below average, with 88.5% of its population born in Australia, 93.3% being citizens, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 56.9%, compared to 57.0% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.5%), English (30.4%), and Scottish (7.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.4% (vs regional 5.1%), Welsh at 0.6% (vs 0.6%), and Korean at 0.3% (vs 0.1%).

Thornton - Millers Forest's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age in Thornton-Millers Forest is 33 years, which is considerably lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and substantially under the national average of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 17.6% locally, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 7.1%. Post the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 14.6% to 16.0%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 10.4% to 8.9% and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 11.7% to 10.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Thornton-Millers Forest, with the 35-44 age group projected to grow by 106%, reaching 6,423 people from 3,122.