Thornton - Millers Forest
Statistical Area - sa2

Thornton - Millers Forest lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Thornton-Millers Forest's population was 15,899 in the 2021 Census. By Aug 2025, it had increased to around 19,492, a rise of 3,593 people (22.6%). This growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 19,023 residents as of June 2024 and an additional 1,062 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 308 persons per square kilometer in Aug 2025. Thornton-Millers Forest's growth exceeded non-metro areas (4.8%) and the state, making it a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 70.7% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a 2021 base are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth in Thornton-Millers Forest, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 19,535 persons based on latest population numbers, recording a gain of 97.8% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Thornton - Millers Forest was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Thornton-Millers Forest has seen approximately 347 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 1,738 homes were approved, with an additional 72 approved in FY26 so far. Each year, about 3.3 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed during this period.

This demand significantly exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new dwellings is $393,000, which is below regional levels, offering more affordable housing choices for buyers. In FY26, there have been $4.9 million in commercial approvals, highlighting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Thornton-Millers Forest exhibits 82.0% higher construction activity per person, indicating ample choice for buyers, although recent activity has eased somewhat. This high level of activity reflects strong developer confidence in the area. New building activity consists of approximately 74.0% detached houses and 26.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes.

This shift from the current housing composition (95.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, with an increasing need for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 64 people per approval, Thornton-Millers Forest is developing at a reasonable pace. Future projections indicate that by 2041, the area will add approximately 19,066 residents. Development appears to be keeping up with projected growth, although buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Thornton - Millers Forest has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Twenty-four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly, with local infrastructure changes being a primary influencer on performance. Notable projects include Raymond Terrace and Heatherbrae Strategy (2020-2040), Chisholm Plaza, Thornton Rail Bridge Duplication, and Sophia Waters Estate. The following list details those projected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Thornton - Millers Forest demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Thornton - Millers Forest had an unemployment rate of 2.0% as of June 2025. It employed 9,695 residents with a participation rate of 72.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 3.7% and 56.4% respectively.

Key sectors were health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and retail trade. Public administration & safety was particularly strong at 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing was low at 0.9%. Labour force decreased by 4.2% over a year, with employment down by 4.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Applying these projections to Thornton - Millers Forest's mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Thornton-Millers Forest's income level is approximately average nationally according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Its median income among taxpayers is $55,417 and the average income stands at $64,523. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which are $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $62,405 (median) and $72,659 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Thornton-Millers Forest, between the 72nd and 79th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 40.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (7,933 residents). This is consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 29.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 15.4% of income. However, strong earnings still place disposable income at the 79th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Thornton - Millers Forest is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Thornton-Millers Forest's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 94.8% houses and 5.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 87.1% houses and 13.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Thornton-Millers Forest was 23.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.2% and rented ones at 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,015, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,862. Median weekly rent in the area was $420, higher than Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $2,015 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Thornton - Millers Forest features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 84.4% of all households, including 43.2% couples with children, 29.4% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 15.6%, with lone person households at 12.9% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.7.

Thornton - Millers Forest shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 18.8%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (31.9%).

Educational participation is high at 30.8%, including primary education (11.1%), secondary education (7.8%), and tertiary education (4.6%). Thornton-Millers Forest's five schools have a combined enrollment of 2,623 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 993) offering balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents are at 13.5, below the regional average of 17.7, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Thornton-Millers Forest has 114 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 107 different routes, facilitating 5,276 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents generally located 235 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 753 daily trips across all routes, translating to approximately 46 weekly trips per individual stop.

Thornton - Millers Forest's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Thornton-Millers Forest's health metrics are close to national benchmarks.

Common health conditions among its general population are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts. Private health cover rate is approximately 52% of the total population (~10,116 people), slightly leading the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 10.7 and 9.6% of residents respectively. 67.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. The area has 11.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,233 people), lower than the 15.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Thornton - Millers Forest ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Thornton-Millers Forest was found to have a below average cultural diversity, with 88.5% of its population born in Australia, 93.3% being citizens, and 91.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Thornton-Millers Forest is Christianity, which comprises 56.9% of the population. This figure is similar to the regional average of 57.0%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (32.5%), English (30.4%), and Scottish (7.1%). There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal at 4.4% (vs regional average of 5.1%), Welsh at 0.6% (same as regional), and Korean at 0.3% (higher than regional average of 0.1%).

Thornton - Millers Forest's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age in Thornton-Millers Forest is 33 years, which is lower than both the Rest of NSW average of 43 and the national average of 38. The 25-34 age cohort is notably higher at 17.6% locally compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 65-74 age group is under-represented at 7.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 35-44 age group has increased from 14.6% to 16.0%, while the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 10.4% to 8.9% and the 45-54 group has dropped from 11.7% to 10.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the 35-44 age group projected to grow by 106%, reaching 6,423 people from a current total of 3,122.