Lorn

Population growth drivers in Lorn are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Lorn is around 1,572. This reflects an increase of 107 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,465. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 1,561 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS and an additional 3 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 342 persons per square kilometer. Lorn's growth rate of 7.3% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area (5.1%) and state averages, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb of Lorn is forecasted to grow by 688 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 41.6% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Lorn recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Lorn has averaged around 5 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 26 homes. So far in FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 5 new residents per year for every home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating significant demand exceeding supply, which typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $483,000. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lorn shows substantially reduced construction, 72.0% below the regional average per person, reflecting a constrained new construction environment that usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. This level is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 67.0% detached dwellings and 33.0% medium and high-density housing, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments offering options across different price points. This marks a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 92.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population density in Lorn is 438 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Lorn to grow by 654 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Lorn has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely impacting the area. Key projects are Maitland Mental Health Rehabilitation Project, Maitland Regional Sports Complex Redevelopment, Maitland Local Housing Strategy 2041, and New Maitland Hospital. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Lorn shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Lorn has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.1%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025793 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Lorn stands at 66.1%, exceeding Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, education & training has a high concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 1.9% employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.0%, and employment decreased by 4.5% in Lorn, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 provide insights into potential future demand within Lorn. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Lorn's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Lorn's median income is $52,271 and average income is $66,265. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes in Lorn would be approximately $58,862 (median) and $74,621 (average). The 2021 Census figures indicate that household, family, and personal incomes in Lorn are at the 63rd percentile nationally. Income brackets show that 26.2% of residents (411 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, consistent with metropolitan trends of 29.9%. Higher earners make up a substantial presence in Lorn, with 32.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Lorn is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lorn, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 87.1% houses and 13.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lorn stood at 43.3%, with mortgaged properties making up 40.4% and rented dwellings accounting for 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, surpassing Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,862. The median weekly rent figure in Lorn was recorded at $378, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, Lorn's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Lorn has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.5% of all households, including 33.5% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households making up 1.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.7.

Lorn shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Lorn is notably higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2021 data, 31.2% of residents aged 15 and above hold university qualifications, compared to 15.2% in the SA4 region and 17.6% in the SA3 area. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 38.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (24.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2021. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 7.8% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education. Nillo Infants School serves the local educational needs within Lorn, with an enrollment of 53 students as of the latest data. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. As of 2021, the area has limited local school capacity, with only 3.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.6, indicating many families travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates nine active transport stops operating within Lorn, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 23 distinct routes, collectively facilitating 164 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents typically situated 147 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 23 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lorn is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Lorn faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover in Lorn is approximately 53%, leading that of the average SA2 area, covering about 835 people. Mental health issues impact 9.3% of residents, while arthritis affects 9.2%. About 63.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. Lorn has 20.1% of residents aged 65 and over (315 people), higher than the 15.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors in Lorn are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Lorn placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lorn has a low cultural diversity, with 91.8% of its population born in Australia, 95.3% being citizens, and 97.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lorn, comprising 56.8%, similar to the regional average of 57.0%. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.8%), Australian (28.4%), and Irish (11.7%).

Notably, Welsh people make up 1.0% of Lorn's population, higher than the regional average of 0.6%, while Scottish people comprise 9.7%, compared to 7.6% regionally. Macedonian ancestry is also slightly overrepresented in Lorn at 0.3%, versus 0.1% regionally.

Lorn hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lorn has a median age of 43, which is equal to that of Rest of NSW and higher than the national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that individuals aged 15-24 are notably prominent at 13.9%, while those aged 25-34 constitute a smaller proportion at 7.4% compared to Rest of NSW. Between the 2021 Census and present, the percentage of Lorn's population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 12.7% to 13.9%. Conversely, the 25-34 age group has decreased from 9.0% to 7.4%, and the 55-64 age group has dropped from 15.1% to 13.5%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Lorn's age structure, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 54 people, reaching 332 from its current figure of 216.