Lorn

Population growth drivers in Lorn are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, Lorn's estimated population is around 1,581. This reflects an increase of 116 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,465. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 1,568 residents following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and three additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 344 persons per square kilometer. Lorn's growth of 7.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both non-metro area (5.7%) and state averages, marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate a significant increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas, with Lorn expected to grow by 687 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 40.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lorn according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Lorn has recorded around 5 residential properties granted approval annually. Approximately 29 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 4.5 new residents per year have been associated with every home built during these five financial years.

This indicates that supply is lagging behind demand, likely leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average construction value of new properties is $483,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, there have been $3.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Relative to Rest of NSW, Lorn records markedly lower building activity, at 68.0% below the regional average per person.

This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. New building activity shows 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population count of 511 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Lorn will gain approximately 644 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lorn has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified six projects that could impact the local area, with key initiatives including the Maitland Mental Health Rehabilitation Project, Maitland Regional Sports Complex Redevelopment, Maitland Local Housing Strategy 2041, and New Maitland Hospital. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Lorn significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Lorn has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.0%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025801 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.9% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Lorn is high at 66.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, the area specializes in education & training with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 1.9% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Lorn's labour force decreased by 2.2% while employment declined by 2.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. Comparatively, Rest of NSW had an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-wide, as of 25-November-25, NSW's employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lorn's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Lorn suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $52,271 and an average income of $66,265. This is slightly below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Lorn's median income would be approximately $56,902 and the average income would be around $72,136 as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Lorn cluster around the 63rd percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that the majority, 26.2% or 414 people, fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly income bracket, reflecting regional patterns where 29.9% also occupy this range. Notably, 32.3% of Lorn residents earn more than $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power in the community. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 87.4% of their income, demonstrating robust purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Lorn is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Lorn, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.6% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 87.1% houses and 13.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lorn was 43.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.4% and rented ones at 16.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,862. The median weekly rent in Lorn was $378, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, Lorn's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Lorn has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.5% of all households, including 33.5% couples with children, 27.3% couples without children, and 12.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.5%, with lone person households at 23.7% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.7.

Lorn shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Lorn, 31.2% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, exceeding the SA4 region's 15.2% and the SA3 area's 17.6%. This high educational attainment positions the area favourably for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.1%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 38.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (24.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (8.7%), secondary (7.8%), and tertiary (4.9%) levels.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lorn has 11 operational public transport stops, all offering bus services. These stops are served by 24 unique routes, which together facilitate 138 weekly passenger journeys. The accessibility of transport in Lorn is rated highly, with residents generally residing just 146 metres from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 19 trips per day across all routes, translating to roughly 12 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lorn is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Lorn faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover in Lorn is approximately 53%, leading that of the average SA2 area, covering around 840 people. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.3% and 9.2% of residents respectively. A total of 63.9% of Lorn's residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Rest of NSW. The area has 20.1% of residents aged 65 and over, which amounts to 317 people, higher than the 15.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors in Lorn are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Lorn placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lorn was found to have a cultural diversity below average, with 91.8% of its population born in Australia, 95.3% being citizens, and 97.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Lorn is Christianity, which comprises 56.8% of the population, compared to 57.0% across Rest of NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups in Lorn are English (33.8%), Australian (28.4%), and Irish (11.7%).

Notably, Welsh is overrepresented at 1.0%, Scottish at 9.7%, and Macedonian at 0.3%, compared to regional figures of 0.6%, 7.6%, and 0.1% respectively.

Lorn hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Lorn has a median age of 43, matching Rest of NSW and exceeding the national average of 38 years. Notably, individuals aged 15-24 comprise 13.9%, while those aged 25-34 constitute only 7.4% of Lorn's population. Between the 2021 Census and present day, the percentage of 15-24 year-olds increased from 12.7% to 13.9%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 55-64 decreased from 15.1% to 13.4%, while those aged 25-34 dropped from 9.0% to 7.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Lorn's age structure. Specifically, the 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 52%, reaching 332 individuals from a current total of 218.