Karuah

Karuah lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Karuah statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,362. This reflects a significant increase from the 2021 Census figure of 1,618 people, marking a growth of 744 individuals or approximately 46.0%. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on examination of ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date, is 2,297. This results in a population density ratio of 32 persons per square kilometer. The Karuah (SA2) has demonstrated notable growth since the 2021 census, exceeding both the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.4% and the non-metro area's growth during this period. Interstate migration contributed significantly to this population increase, accounting for approximately 73.0% of overall population gains.

However, all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch projections, based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, indicate that the Karuah (SA2) is expected to experience exceptional growth over the period from 2025 to 2041, placing it in the top 10 percent of locations outside capital cities. According to these projections, the area is anticipated to expand by 857 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of approximately 13.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Karuah among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Between FY21 and FY25, Karuah saw approximately 266 new homes approved annually. In FY26 up to date, around 25 homes have been approved. This totals an average of about 53 new homes approved per year over the past five financial years.

Each year, on average, one new resident is associated with each dwelling constructed during this period. The estimated construction value for these dwellings averages $369,000. In FY26, there have been $23.9 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady investment activity in the area. Compared to Rest of NSW, Karuah has 416% more construction activity per person, suggesting strong developer confidence and ample buyer choice, although recent construction activity has eased slightly. The new building activity in Karuah comprises approximately 69% standalone homes and 31% townhouses or apartments, showing a shift from the current housing mix of 93% houses. This change reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With around 56 people per dwelling approval, Karuah exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Karuah is projected to grow by approximately 315 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Karuah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely affecting this region: Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and Newcastle Offshore Wind Project. Relevant details are provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Karuah has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Karuah has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar employment. The construction sector is particularly prominent.

Its unemployment rate is 4.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025730 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.4% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Karuah is lower at 41.9%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment among residents is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Construction employs 1.8 times the regional average. Health care & social assistance employs 12.9% of local workers, lower than Rest of NSW's 16.9%. There are 1.1 workers for every resident, indicating Karuah functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 1.8% while employment declined by 1.4%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%, with a rise in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. As of 25-Nov-25, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 12.4% over ten years. Applying these projections to Karuah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 10.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Karuah had a lower than average income level nationally according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $38,759 and the average income stood at $47,460, compared to Rest of NSW's figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $42,193 (median) and $51,665 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Karuah all fell between the 5th and 7th percentiles nationally. Income distribution showed that the $400 - $799 bracket dominated with 30.9% of residents (729 people), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket led at 29.9%. Economic circumstances indicated widespread financial pressure, with 40.7% of households operating within modest weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 84.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Karuah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Karuah, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.6% houses and 7.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Karuah stood at 48.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (29.3%) or rented (21.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,444, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Karuah was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Karuah's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,444 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Karuah has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.1% of all households, including 19.6% couples with children, 34.8% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.9%, with lone person households making up 28.4% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Karuah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

In the region, university qualification rates are significantly lower than the NSW average, at 8.4%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent among residents with higher education qualifications, at 5.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational skills are prominent in the area, with 43.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding such credentials.

This includes advanced diplomas held by 7.2% of residents and certificates held by 36.0%. Educational participation is high, with 28.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (12.0%), secondary education (7.6%), and tertiary education (1.9%).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Karuah has 22 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 114 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is considered good, with residents on average being located 263 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 16 daily trips, which equates to roughly five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Karuah is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Karuah faces significant health challenges across various age groups. Approximately 46% (~1,081 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW's 50.1% and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (13.7%) and mental health issues (9.3%).

About 54.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 59.3% in Rest of NSW. Karuah has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.5% (720 people), versus Rest of NSW's 28.1%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

The latest Census data sees Karuah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Karuah had a cultural diversity level below average, with 88.9% of its population being citizens, 91.1% born in Australia, and 96.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Karuah, comprising 58.8%, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.7%), English (29.1%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 8.6% compared to the regional average of 4.5%. Welsh and Russian populations also differed from regional averages, being 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively, versus 0.7% and 0.2%.

Karuah ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

"Karuah has a median age of 50, which is higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group makes up 18.3% of Karuah's population, compared to Rest of NSW's percentage, while the 35-44 cohort represents 8.7%. This 65-74 concentration is higher than the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 8.8% to 9.7%, while the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 12.0% to 10.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Karuah's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 70 people (29%), from 248 to 319. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 55% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, numbers in the 15-24 age range are projected to fall by 11.".