Karuah

Karuah lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Karuah's population is estimated at around 1,964 people. This reflects an increase of 346 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,618 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,883 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of an additional 140 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 26 persons per square kilometer. Karuah's growth rate of 21.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area's 5.1% and SA3 area growth rates, marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and overseas migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase is forecasted in top quartile regional areas across the nation. The suburb of Karuah is expected to expand by 816 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 34.2% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Karuah when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Karuah has had around 41 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, approximately 205 homes were approved, with a further 9 approved in FY26 so far. This results in an estimated average of 1.3 new residents per year per dwelling constructed during this period.

The average construction value of these properties is $369,000, reflecting more affordable housing options compared to regional norms. In the current financial year, commercial development approvals total $18.0 million, indicating steady investment activity in Karuah. Compared to Rest of NSW, Karuah has seen 301.0% more construction activity per person recently, though this activity has eased slightly. This high level of activity is well above national averages and reflects strong developer confidence in the area. The new building activity consists of 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Karuah's traditional low density character while addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 94 people per dwelling approval, Karuah exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Karuah is expected to grow by 672 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Karuah has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes to local infrastructure projects and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified two projects that are expected to impact the region. Notable projects include Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and High Speed Rail - Newcastle to Sydney (Stage 1). The following list details those that are likely to be most relevant.

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Employment drivers in Karuah are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Karuah's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. The construction sector stands out with significant representation.

As of June 2025, the unemployment rate in Karuah is 4.5%, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Karuah lags at 41.9% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Notably, construction employment levels are at 1.8 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance employs only 12.9% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 16.9%. Karuah functions as an employment hub with 1.1 jobs per resident. Between Jun-24 and Jul-25, labour force decreased by 4.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Karuah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.4% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Karuah's median income among taxpayers was $38,759 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $47,460 during the same period. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $43,647 (median) and $53,445 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Karuah fall between the 5th and 7th percentiles nationally. The income distribution shows that 30.9% of residents earn within the $400 - 799 bracket, while regional levels are dominated by the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket at 29.9%. Economic circumstances indicate financial pressure, with 40.7% of households having weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 84.6% of income remaining for residents in Karuah, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Karuah is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As of the latest Census in Karuah, 92.6% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 7.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs from Non-Metro NSW where 81.1% of dwellings are houses. Home ownership in Karuah stood at 48.8%, with mortgaged properties accounting for 29.3% and rented dwellings making up 21.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,444, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in Karuah averaged $300, compared to $360 in Non-Metro NSW. Nationally, Karuah's mortgage repayments are lower at $1,444 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents are also lower at $300 compared to the national figure of $375.

Karuah has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.1% of all households, including 19.6% couples with children, 34.8% couples without children, and 13.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.9%, with lone person households at 28.4% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Karuah faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.4%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 5.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.2%) and certificates (36.0%). Educational participation is high at 28.7%, comprising 12.0% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Karuah Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 153 students as of a certain date. The school focuses on primary education, with ICSEA value of 869. School places per 100 residents are 7.8, below the regional average of 11.8.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Karuah has 21 operational public transport stops. These are served by a variety of bus routes, totalling 19. Together, these routes facilitate 129 weekly passenger trips.

Transport access in Karuah is considered good, with residents on average being 263 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 18 daily trips across all routes, equating to about 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Karuah is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Karuah faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~899 people) have private health cover, lower than the Rest of NSW's 49.3% and the national average of 55.3%. Common medical conditions include arthritis (13.7%) and mental health issues (9.3%).

About 54.7% report no medical ailments, compared to 59.3% in Rest of NSW. Karuah has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 30.7% (602 people), compared to 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors largely align with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Karuah placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Karuah's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.9% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Karuah, comprising 58.8% of people compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (33.7%), English (29.1%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 8.6% in Karuah compared to the regional average of 4.5%. Welsh (0.8%) and Russian (0.5%) populations are also relatively higher than their respective regional averages of 0.7% and 0.2%.

Karuah ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Karuah has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and also above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group makes up 18.3% of Karuah's population, compared to 12.9% in the Rest of NSW and 9.4% nationally. Meanwhile, the 35-44 age group is less prevalent at 8.6%. According to the 2021 Census, Karuah's 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.8% to 9.7%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 10.8%. Demographic projections suggest that by 2041, Karuah's age profile will change significantly. The 65 to 74 age group is expected to grow by 133 people (37%), reaching a total of 493 individuals.