Fingal Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Fingal Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Fingal Bay, as estimated by AreaSearch based on ABS updates and new addresses validated since the 2021 Census, is around 1,656 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 21 people (1.3%) from the previous count of 1,635 in the 2021 Census. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,634 following their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 172 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing approximately 98.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, they utilize the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the suburb is expected to experience population growth just below the median rate for locations outside capital cities. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Fingal Bay's population is anticipated to increase by 198 persons to reach a total of around 1,854 by the year 2041, marking an overall increase of approximately 11.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Fingal Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Fingal Bay had minimal residential development activity with 3 dwelling approvals annually between 2016 and 2020. This resulted in a total of 19 approvals over these five years. Such low development levels are characteristic of rural areas where housing needs are modest, and construction activity is naturally limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It's important to note that with such low approval numbers, yearly growth figures and relativities can vary considerably based on individual projects. Fingal Bay shows significantly less construction activity than the Rest of NSW and its development levels are likewise under national averages. New building activity showed 50% detached dwellings and 50% attached dwellings between 2016 and 2020. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The estimated count of 471 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Fingal Bay is expected to grow by 196 residents between 2021 and 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate released on 30th June 2021. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Fingal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are 14 Market Street, Fingal Bay Mixed-Use (Shop-top Housing), Engadine RSL and Fingal Bay Sports Club Development, Fingal Bay Foreshore Upgrade, Nelson Bay Toboggan Hill Park Development Opportunity. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Fingal Bay faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Fingal Bay has a skilled workforce with prominence in tourism and hospitality sectors. The unemployment rate is 4.8%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025573 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.2% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Fingal Bay lags behind at 36.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are accommodation & food, construction, and health care & social assistance. The area has a significant specialization in accommodation & food with an employment share 2.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 12.0% compared to the regional average of 16.9%. While local employment opportunities exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, labour force decreased by 4.1% and employment declined by 4.7%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase in employment over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fingal Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Fingal Bay is below the national average. The median assessed income is $37,336 and the average income stands at $53,191. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average income is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $42,044 for median income and $59,898 for average income as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Fingal Bay all fall between the 8th and 8th percentiles nationally. The largest segment of income distribution comprises 33.1% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly, with 548 residents falling into this bracket. This contrasts with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Fingal Bay, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Fingal Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Fingal Bay, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 51.8% houses and 48.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fingal Bay was 57.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.6% and rented dwellings at 26.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, similar to Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent was $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Fingal Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 than the Australian average of $1,863. Rents in Fingal Bay exceeded the national figure of $375 at $390.

Fingal Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.1% of all households, consisting of 14.4% couples with children, 45.7% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.9%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households making up 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Fingal Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 43.6% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 32.8%. Currently, 21.9% of the population is engaged in formal education: 9.3% in primary, 6.0% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to lie outside the immediate area, necessitating families to access schools in neighboring regions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fingal Bay has 21 operational public transport stops. These are served by a mix of buses operating along 17 different routes. Together, these routes facilitate 359 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from residences to the nearest transport stop is 149 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. On average, services run 51 times daily across all routes, translating to about 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Fingal Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Fingal Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover penetration is low at approximately 48%, covering around 795 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (16.1%) and heart disease (7.0%). Around 55.3% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 59.3%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 47.9%, with around 793 people falling into this category, compared to 28.1% in Rest of NSW.

Fingal Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fingal Bay had a cultural diversity level below average, with 88.9% of its population being citizens, 85.6% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Fingal Bay, comprising 62.6% of the population, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (36.3%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (11.1%).

Notably, Welsh (1.1%) was overrepresented in Fingal Bay compared to the regional average of 0.7%, as were Russian (0.4% vs 0.2%) and Scottish (8.7% vs 8.3%).

Fingal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Fingal Bay's median age is 63 years, exceeding both the Rest of NSW average of 43 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, residents aged 65-74 are notably over-represented in Fingal Bay at 23.1%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 5.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is significantly higher than the national average of 9.4%. Post the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 5.7% to 6.7%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 8.4% to 7.1% and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 16.9% to 15.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Fingal Bay's age profile. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 102%, reaching 234 people from the current 115. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 85% of this growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups.