Fingal Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Fingal Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of Fingal Bay is around 1,587, marking a decrease of 48 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 1,635. This decline reflects an inferred resident population of 1,583 based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses following the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025. The population density is approximately 165 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed significantly to population growth in recent periods, accounting for around 98% of overall gains. For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia figures released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas.

Applying growth rates by age group from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041, Fingal Bay is expected to increase by 156 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of approximately 9.6% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Fingal Bay is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Fingal Bay had minimal residential development activity with 3 dwelling approvals annually between 2015 and 2019 (a total of 19 approvals over five years). This low level of development reflects the rural nature of the area, where housing needs driven by local demand are typically prioritized over broader market demands. It is important to note that with such low approval numbers, yearly growth figures and relativities can vary significantly based on individual projects.

Fingal Bay has substantially lower development levels than the Rest of NSW, and this activity level is also below national patterns. Recent construction comprises 50% standalone homes and 50% medium and high-density housing, indicating a trend towards denser development which caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The estimated population density in Fingal Bay is 807 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Fingal Bay's population is forecasted to grow by 152 residents between 2020 and 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the area.

Population forecasts indicate Fingal Bay will gain 152 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Fingal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are 14 Market Street development, Fingal Bay Mixed-Use (Shop-top Housing), Engadine RSL and Fingal Bay Sports Club Development, Fingal Bay Foreshore Upgrade, Nelson Bay Toboggan Hill Park Development Opportunity. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Fingal Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Fingal Bay's workforce is skilled, with tourism and hospitality sectors prominent. The unemployment rate was 5.0% as of AreaSearch data aggregation in an unspecified period. As of December 2025534 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 1.0%, exceeding Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 38.7%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, a moderate 22.0% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in accommodation & food (strongly specialized with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level), construction, and health care & social assistance (12.0%, below Regional NSW's 16.9%). Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparison between working population and local population.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 2.4% and employment by 2.2%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fingal Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Fingal Bay is lower than average nationally. The median income is $37,336 while the average income stands at $53,191. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $41,189 (median) and $58,680 (average) as of March 2026. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Fingal Bay all fall between the 8th and 8th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that the $800 - $1,499 bracket dominates with 33.1% of residents (525 people), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Fingal Bay, with only 84.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Fingal Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Fingal Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.8% houses and 48.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fingal Bay was at 57.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.6% and rented dwellings at 26.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average, while the median weekly rent figure was $390, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Fingal Bay's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and median weekly rents were higher at $390 compared to the national figure of $375.

Fingal Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.1% of all households, including 14.4% couples with children, 45.7% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.9%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4 people.

Fingal Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (32.8%).

A significant 21.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.3% in primary, 6.0% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fingal Bay has 25 operational public transport stops, serving a mix of bus routes. These routes total 17, offering 357 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is high, with residents usually located 149 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily, predominantly using cars (94%). On average, there's 1.1 vehicle per dwelling, below the regional norm. In 2021 Census data, 22% of residents worked from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 51 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 14 weekly trips per stop.

Fingal Bay's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Fingal Bay residents have shown positive health outcomes, according to AreaSearch's analysis. Mortality rates and health conditions are largely in line with national benchmarks. Common health conditions are low among the general population but higher among older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is very low, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 762 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (16.1%) and heart disease (7%). About 55.3% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than the 63.3% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among working-age residents are typical. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 51.0% (809 people), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Nationally, this figure is lower than the broader population.

Fingal Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fingal Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.9% of its population being Australian citizens, 85.6% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Fingal Bay, comprising 62.6% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (36.3%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (11.1%).

Notably, Welsh (1.1%) and Russian (0.4%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Fingal Bay compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Scottish ethnicity was also slightly higher at 8.7%.

Fingal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Fingal Bay's median age is 63 years, notably exceeding Regional NSW's average of 43 years and substantially surpassing Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, Fingal Bay has a notably higher proportion of the 65-74 age group (24.0% locally vs. an average of 18.9%), while the 35-44 age group is under-represented (5.9% vs. an average of 12.5%). This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is well above Australia's national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, Fingal Bay's population aged 75 to 84 grew from 17.1% to 19.0%, and the 15 to 24 age group increased from 5.7% to 7.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 8.4% to 6.2%, and the 5 to 14 age group decreased from 8.0% to 6.9%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Fingal Bay's age profile by 2041. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 77%, reaching 225 people from the current 126. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 78% of this growth, while population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups.