Fingal Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Fingal Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Fingal Bay's population is estimated at around 1,636 people. This reflects an increase of 1 person since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,635 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 1,613 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024, and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 170 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 98.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Applying growth rates from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041, Fingal Bay is expected to increase by 269 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 15.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Fingal Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Fingal Bay had minimal residential development activity with 3 dwelling approvals annually between 2015 and 2019 (a total of 19 approvals). Such low development levels are characteristic of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It's important to note that yearly growth figures can vary considerably based on individual projects with such low approval numbers.

Fingal Bay showed significantly less construction activity than the Rest of NSW during this period, with development levels also under national averages. New building activity consisted of 50% detached dwellings and 50% attached dwellings between 2015 and 2019. The estimated population count was 826 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Fingal Bay is expected to grow by 246 residents from 2019 to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Looking ahead, Fingal Bay is expected to grow by 246 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Fingal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include 14 Market Street, Fingal Bay Mixed-Use (Shop-top Housing), Engadine RSL and Fingal Bay Sports Club Development, Fingal Bay Foreshore Upgrade, Nelson Bay Toboggan Hill Park Development Opportunity. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Fingal Bay recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Fingal Bay has a skilled workforce with prominence in tourism and hospitality sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.8% as of an unspecified past year. As of December 2025598 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, which is 0.8% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Fingal Bay lags at 42.7%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 22.0% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors include accommodation & food, construction, and health care & social assistance. The area specializes in accommodation & food services with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance has lower representation at 12.0% versus the regional average of 16.9%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment in Fingal Bay increased by 0.3%, while labour force remained stable at 0.0%, leading to a unemployment rate drop of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 1.2% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points over the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fingal Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that income in Fingal Bay is below the national average. The median income is $37,336 and the average income stands at $53,191. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $40,644 (median) and $57,904 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Fingal Bay all fall between the 8th and 8th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the largest segment comprises 33.1% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (541 residents), contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Fingal Bay, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Fingal Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fingal Bay's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 51.8% houses and 48.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fingal Bay stood at 57.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.6% and rented ones at 26.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average. The median weekly rent was $390, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Fingal Bay's mortgage repayments were lower ($1,733 vs. Australia's $1,863), while rents exceeded the national figure ($390 vs. $375).

Fingal Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.1% of all households, including 14.4% that are couples with children, 45.7% that are couples without children, and 8.3% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.9%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Fingal Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 32.8%.

A total of 21.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.3% in primary, 6.0% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fingal Bay has 25 active public transport stops offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 17 routes that collectively facilitate 357 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 149 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 22% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 51 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Fingal Bay is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Fingal Bay shows better-than-average health outcomes, as per AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions among the general population is low but exceeds the national average for older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 48% of the total population (~785 people), lower than Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (16.1%) and heart disease (7%). A total of 55.3% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among working-age residents are generally typical. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 49.6% (811 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%, but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

Fingal Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fingal Bay had a cultural diversity level below average, with 88.9% of its population being citizens, 85.6% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Fingal Bay, comprising 62.6%, which is higher than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups in Fingal Bay were English at 36.3%, Australian at 27.9%, and Irish at 11.1%.

Notably, Welsh (1.1% vs regional 0.5%), Russian (0.4% vs regional 0.2%), and Scottish (8.7% vs regional 8.0%) groups were overrepresented in Fingal Bay compared to Regional NSW averages.

Fingal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Fingal Bay's median age is 63 years, notably exceeding Regional NSW's average of 43 years and substantially exceeding Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW's average, Fingal Bay has a notably over-represented cohort of 65-74 year-olds at 23.9%, while the 35-44 age group is under-represented at 6.0%. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above Australia's national average of 9.5%. According to the 2021 Census, Fingal Bay's population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 5.7% to 6.8%, while the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 8.4% to 7.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Fingal Bay's age profile will evolve significantly. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ age group is projected to grow by 83%, reaching 231 people from a current total of 125. This growth is primarily driven by residents aged 65 and older representing 75% of anticipated population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.