Fingal Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Fingal Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Fingal Bay is around 1,636 people, reflecting a slight increase from the 2021 Census figure of 1,635. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 1,613 residents based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density stands at approximately 170 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed significantly to recent population growth, accounting for around 98% of overall gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas.

These projections anticipate median population growth outside capital cities, predicting an increase of 269 persons by 2041, reflecting a 17.6% rise over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Fingal Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Fingal Bay had minimal residential development activity with 3 dwelling approvals annually between January 2016 and December 2020 inclusive. This resulted in a total of 15 dwelling approvals over these five years. Such low development levels are typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest, and construction activity is naturally limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that with such low approval numbers, yearly growth figures and relativities can vary considerably based on individual projects. Fingal Bay shows significantly less construction activity than the rest of NSW during this period. Development levels were likewise under national averages for the same period. New building activity showed 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% attached dwellings between January 2016 and December 2020 inclusive. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

The estimated count of 1650 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment during this period. Looking ahead, Fingal Bay is expected to grow by 288 residents from June 2021 to June 2041 inclusive (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth in Fingal Bay, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases during this period.

Fingal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are 14 Market Street development, Fingal Bay Mixed-Use (Shop-top Housing), Engadine RSL and Fingal Bay Sports Club Development, Fingal Bay Foreshore Upgrade, Nelson Bay Toboggan Hill Park Development Opportunity. Relevant details follow.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Fingal Bay faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Fingal Bay has a skilled workforce with prominent tourism and hospitality sectors. The unemployment rate is 4.8%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025592 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.0% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Fingal Bay lags at 43.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Census responses indicate that 22.0% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries for employment among residents are accommodation & food services, construction, and health care & social assistance. The area specializes in accommodation & food services with an employment share 2.2 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 12.0% versus the regional average of 16.9%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population count. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.0% alongside a 2.0% employment decline, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 4.8%. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Fingal Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Fingal Bay is below the national average. The median income is $37,336 while the average income stands at $53,191. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $52,390 and the average income is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Fingal Bay would be approximately $40,644 (median) and $57,904 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Fingal Bay all fall between the 8th percentile nationally. Looking at income distribution, the largest segment comprises 33.1% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (541 residents), contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Fingal Bay, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Fingal Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Fingal Bay, as assessed at the 2016 Census, consisted of 51.8% houses and 48.2% other dwellings. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fingal Bay was 57.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.6% and rented ones at 26.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent was $390, higher than Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Fingal Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Fingal Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.1% of all households, including 14.4% couples with children, 45.7% couples without children, and 8.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.9%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Fingal Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (32.8%).

A total of 21.9% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 9.3% in primary education, 6.0% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fingal Bay has 25 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 357 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 149 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Fingal Bay being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 22.0% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 51 trips per day, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Fingal Bay is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Fingal Bay shows superior health outcomes, as per AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among its general population but higher than the national average among older, at-risk cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 48% of the total population (around 785 people), lower than Rest of NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 16.1% of residents) and heart disease (7.0%), while 55.3% report no medical ailments, compared to Rest of NSW's 63.3%. Health outcomes for the working-age population are largely typical. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 48.2% (788 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 23.4%, but ranks lower nationally than the broader population.

Fingal Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fingal Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.9% of its population being citizens and 85.6% born in Australia. English was spoken exclusively at home by 96.9%. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 62.6%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (36.3%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (11.1%). Notably, Welsh (1.1%) and Russian (0.4%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Scottish representation was also slightly higher at 8.7%.

Fingal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Fingal Bay's median age is 63 years, notably exceeding both the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and the national average of 38 years. In Fingal Bay, those aged 65-74 make up 23.2% of the population, which is notably higher than the Rest of NSW average and well above the national average of 9.5%. Conversely, those aged 35-44 constitute only 5.8% of Fingal Bay's population, indicating an under-representation compared to the Rest of NSW average. According to the Census conducted on the 27th of August, 2021, the age group 15-24 has grown from 5.7% to 6.5%, while the 45-54 cohort has declined from 8.4% to 7.1%. Similarly, the 55-64 group has dropped from 16.9% to 15.6%. By the year 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Fingal Bay's age profile. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 89%, reaching a total of 232 people from the current figure of 122. This growth will be largely driven by residents aged 65 and older, who are projected to represent 71% of the anticipated population increase. Meanwhile, numbers in the 15-24 age range are expected to decrease by 11%.