Fingal Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Fingal Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Fingal Bay statistical area (Lv2) is around 1,628 people. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 1,635 people, indicating a drop of 7 individuals or approximately 0.4%. The current resident population estimate of 1,613 by AreaSearch, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of 5 new addresses since the Census date, supports this decrease. This results in a density ratio of 169 persons per square kilometer, suggesting ample space for further development. Overseas migration has been the primary driver of population growth in the area, contributing approximately 98% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections indicate an expected population increase just below the median for locations outside capital cities by 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Fingal Bay (SA2) is anticipated to increase its population by 198 persons from 2025 to 2041, reflecting a total increase of approximately 13.8% over these 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Fingal Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Fingal Bay had minimal residential development activity with 3 dwelling approvals annually between January 2015 and December 2019 inclusive. This resulted in a total of 15 dwelling approvals over the five-year period. Such low development levels are characteristic of rural areas where housing needs are modest, and construction activity is naturally limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that with such low approval numbers, yearly growth figures and relativities can vary considerably based on individual projects. Fingal Bay shows significantly less construction activity than the Rest of NSW. Development levels are likewise under national averages. New building activity between January 2015 and December 2019 inclusive showed 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% attached dwellings. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

The estimated count of 1650 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Fingal Bay is expected to grow by 224 residents between January 2021 and December 2041 inclusive (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Fingal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting the region. Key initiatives include 14 Market Street, Fingal Bay Mixed-Use (Shop-top Housing), Engadine RSL and Fingal Bay Sports Club Development, Fingal Bay Foreshore Upgrade, Nelson Bay Toboggan Hill Park Development Opportunity. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Fingal Bay faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Fingal Bay's workforce is skilled with tourism and hospitality prominent. Its unemployment rate was 4.7% in aggregated statistical area data.

As of September 2025574 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate at 4.5%. This was 0.8% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation was lower at 36.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents were accommodation & food, construction, and health care & social assistance. Accommodation & food had a higher share of employment at 2.2 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance was lower at 12.0% compared to the regional average of 16.9%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.7%, employment declined by 2.5%, causing unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points in Fingal Bay. This contrasted with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fingal Bay's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In Fingal Bay during financial year 2023, median income was $37,336 and average income was $53,191. This is below the national averages of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average) for Rest of NSW. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $40,644 and average income $57,904, based on an 8.86% growth from the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Fingal Bay fall between the 8th and 8th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The largest income segment comprises 33.1% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly (538 residents), contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Fingal Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Fingal Bay, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, consisted of 51.8% houses and 48.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fingal Bay stood at 57.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.6% and rented dwellings at 26.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with the Non-Metro NSW average, while the median weekly rent was $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Fingal Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Fingal Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.1% of all households, including 14.4% that are couples with children, 45.7% that are couples without children, and 8.3% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.9%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Fingal Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 18.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (32.8%).

A total of 21.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, consisting of 9.3% in primary, 6.0% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fingal Bay has 25 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 17 different routes that together facilitate 357 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 149 meters from their nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 51 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Fingal Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Fingal Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 48%, covering around 781 people, compared to 50.1% across the Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 16.1% of residents) and heart disease (7%).

About 55.3% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 59.3% in the Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 47.9% (779 people), compared to 28.1% in the Rest of NSW.

Fingal Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fingal Bay had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.9% of its population being Australian citizens, 85.6% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practised by 62.6% of Fingal Bay's population, compared to 57.4% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (36.3%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (11.1%).

Notably, Welsh (1.1%) and Russian (0.4%) groups were overrepresented in Fingal Bay compared to regional averages of 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Scottish ancestry was also slightly higher at 8.7%.

Fingal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Fingal Bay's median age is 63 years, notably exceeding the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and substantially exceeding the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the cohort aged 65-74 is notably over-represented in Fingal Bay at 23.1%, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 5.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the Census conducted on 28 August 2021, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 5.7% to 6.7%, while the cohort aged 45 to 54 has declined from 8.4% to 7.1%. Additionally, the group aged 55 to 64 has dropped from 16.9% to 15.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Fingal Bay's age profile will evolve significantly by the year 2041. Leading this demographic shift, the population aged 85 and above is projected to grow by 105%, reaching 234 people from an initial count of 113. This growth is anticipated to be driven by demographic aging, with residents aged 65 and older representing 82% of the expected population growth. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the cohorts aged 5 to 14 and 15 to 24.