Shoal Bay (NSW)

Shoal Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Shoal Bay's population is estimated at around 1,841, reflecting an increase of 26 people since the 2021 Census. The resident population was estimated by AreaSearch as 1,812 in June 2024, using ABS ERP data and validated new addresses. This results in a density ratio of 458 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 98.0% of overall population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, non-metropolitan areas are projected to have above median population growth. By 2041, Shoal Bay is expected to increase by 253 persons, reflecting a gain of 13.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Shoal Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Shoal Bay averaged around 6 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 30 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, on average, 1.3 people moved to the area per dwelling built. However, this figure intensified to 4.6 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $721,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shoal Bay has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and places among the 23rd percentile nationally, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing dwellings. This level reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 25.0% detached dwellings and 75.0% attached dwellings, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers due to affordable entry pathways. This represents a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 53.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. The estimated count of 735 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Shoal Bay will gain 256 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Shoal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes can impact an area's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), the Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, the Newcastle Offshore Wind Project, and the Draft Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan 2036. The following list outlines those projects likely to be most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Shoal Bay face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Shoal Bay has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.8% as of June 2025, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

In this month, 702 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Shoal Bay lagged significantly at 39.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents included health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction. The area had particular specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share twice the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 1.4% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work, indicated by the count of Census working population to local population. In the 12-month period ending in June 2025, labour force decreased by 5.1% and employment decreased by 5.9%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offered insights into potential future demand within Shoal Bay. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, estimated national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Shoal Bay's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Shoal Bay's median income among taxpayers was $40,594 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $57,833 during the same period. In comparison, Rest of NSW had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Shoal Bay would be approximately $45,713 and $65,126 based on a 12.61% growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Shoal Bay fell between the 3rd and 14th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicated that 32.1% of Shoal Bay's population earned within the $400-$799 range, unlike metropolitan regions where 29.9% earned within the $1,500-$2,999 range. The prevalence of lower-income residents (40.7% earning under $800/week) suggested constrained household budgets across much of the locality. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 80.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Shoal Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Shoal Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 52.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 47.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoal Bay stood at 43.9%, similar to Non-Metro NSW, with mortgaged dwellings at 19.0% and rented ones at 37.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in Shoal Bay was $338, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Shoal Bay's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Shoal Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 54.9% of all households, including 13.7% that are couples with children, 30.7% that are couples without children, and 10.4% that are single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 45.1%, with lone person households at 42.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Shoal Bay fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.9%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (30.7%). Educational participation is high at 27.7%, including 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Shoal Bay Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 270 students. The school focuses on primary education, with ICSEA score indicating typical Australian school conditions (965). Secondary options are available nearby. School capacity exceeds local needs at 14.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 11.8, suggesting it serves as an educational hub for the broader region.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shoal Bay has 18 operational public transport stops. These are all bus stops. There are 22 different routes serving these stops, offering a total of 282 weekly passenger trips.

The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 144 meters. On average, there are 40 trips per day across all routes, which equals about 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shoal Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Shoal Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately half of Shoal Bay's total population (~917 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 14.3% of residents) and mental health issues (9.1%). Conversely, 56.4% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW figure at 59.3%. Shoal Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 41.9% (771 people) compared to 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population's health metrics.

Shoal Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shoal Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.9% of its population being citizens, 80.4% born in Australia, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Shoal Bay, comprising 59.9% of people, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.3%), Australian (27.1%), and Irish (10.5%).

Notably, Polish was overrepresented at 0.8% in Shoal Bay versus 0.6% regionally, Scottish at 8.5% versus 8.3%, and Maori at 0.6% versus 0.3%.

Shoal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Shoal Bay's median age is 59, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and also notably higher than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Shoal Bay has a higher proportion of residents aged 85 and above (10.5%), but fewer individuals aged 25 to 34 (6.6%). This concentration of residents aged 85 and above is well above the national figure of 2.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of the population in the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 14.4% to 15.2%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 10.1% to 9.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoal Bay's age structure. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 86%, adding 165 residents to reach a total of 359. Demographic aging will continue as residents aged 65 and older represent 83% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, the 55 to 64 and 5 to 14 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.