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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Shoal Bay (NSW) is $1.30m, with units at $822k. House values have moved 6.0% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Shoal Bay (NSW) has an estimated 1,828 residents. That puts 455 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to evaluations of regional ABS demographic releases alongside post-Census address validations by AreaSearch, the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) has a population of approximately 1,828 as of Aug 2026. This indicates an expansion of 13 people (0.7%) compared to the 2021 Census tally of 1,815 people. Such figures build upon an Estimated Resident Population of 1,826 established by AreaSearch following the ABS June 2025 ERP update, combined with 10 validated new addresses identified after the Census. The suburb's density stands at 454 persons per square kilometer, indicating generous space per resident and capacity for prospective development.
Net overseas migration served as the core growth engine, generating around 98.0% of the overall population additions in recent times. Demographic projections for the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) draw upon 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia SA2 models anchored to 2022, supplemented by 2022 NSW State Government SA2 releases based on 2021 where necessary, with age-cohort growth rates extended across 2032 to 2041. Looking forward, the area is slated to outperform the median growth rate of non-metropolitan regions across Australia, adding 212 persons by 2041 under aggregated SA2 projections, representing an overall expansion of 11.5% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Detail
Residential building approvals in Shoal Bay remain subdued, registering an average of 1 approvals per year (equating to 8 dwellings across the five-year period). This constrained construction volume is typical for non-urban settings where dwelling requirements are modest and building activity is restricted by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It is worth noting that due to the modest sample size, single residential schemes can create marked variations in year-on-year growth and comparative metrics. Building activity in Shoal Bay tracks significantly below levels observed across Rest of NSW, as well as broader nationwide averages.
Of the recent building approvals, 33.0% were detached houses while medium-and-high density options like townhouses or apartments made up 67.0%. This shift toward medium-density housing creates accessible avenues for first-time buyers, downsizers, and property investors. It also marks a noticeable departure from the prevailing housing stock (53.0% houses), reflecting a scarcity of development sites alongside evolving buyer budgets and living preferences. Recording approximately 260 people per dwelling approval, the locality displays low-density attributes. Demographic forecasts indicate Shoal Bay will gain 210 residents by 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If dwelling construction continues at its current rate, residential supply could face difficulties keeping pace with incoming residents, potentially driving up buyer competition and exerting upward pressure on property prices.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Shoal Bay (NSW)
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 40 current infrastructure and development projects close to Shoal Bay (NSW), worth an estimated $1.27 billion. 5 are already under construction and 14 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and tourism. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Strategic planning, regional initiatives, and public infrastructure updates significantly guide local market dynamics. Currently, no major projects have been recorded by AreaSearch with anticipated direct consequences for the immediate area. Broad planning and infrastructure frameworks relevant to the district include the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Newcastle Offshore Wind Project, and Draft Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan 2036.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan
A 20-year vision by Port Stephens Council to revitalise the Nelson Bay town centre and foreshore. The plan focuses on upgrading streetscapes, improving pedestrian connectivity, and creating a greener, more attractive environment. Recent works include the Stockton Street stage upgrades and pedestrian wayfinding improvements, supported by smart parking revenue and government grants.
The Belvedere
An eight-storey luxury residential development comprising 56 apartments including two- and three-bedroom residences and penthouses, with rooftop amenities such as a pool, spa, gym, and sauna, along with communal green spaces, an office, and a coffee shop, aimed at addressing housing shortages in Port Stephens.
d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel
Demolition of existing on-land structures at Nelson Bay Marina and construction of a four-storey 122-room waterfront hotel across three multi-storey buildings, along with upgraded restaurant and cafe facilities, enhanced retail spaces, a boat maintenance workshop, outdoor and rooftop terraces, a new foreshore public plaza, and multi-level car parking. A State Significant Development application (SSD-77938524) is being prepared for submission to the NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure following community engagement completed in October 2025.The precinct is owned and operated by d'Albora Marinas (MA Financial).
Nelson Bay Apartments
High-end block of five residential apartments, six storeys, penthouse with pool, ocean views.
14 Market Street, Fingal Bay Mixed-Use (Shop-top Housing)
DA-approved shop-top housing: 3 apartments (two 2-bedroom units and one full-floor penthouse) over ground-floor retail with on-grade parking. Site is approximately 200m from Fingal Beach. Property was marketed for sale in 2024 with DA in place and the ground-floor commercial space is currently advertised for lease, indicating no construction commencement as of the latest checks.
Kurrara Hill
A 10-storey mixed-use development featuring 48 modern apartments with a mix of one to four-bedroom units, two business premises, one retail space, premium landscaping, and secure on-site parking.
Engadine Rsl And Fingal Bay Sports Club Development
Societie Group is seeking development partners for a joint-venture redevelopment opportunity at Engadine RSL and Fingal Bay Sports Club sites to explore a variety of potential end-uses and synergies, future-proofing the clubs.
Fingal Bay Foreshore Upgrade
Improve accessibility and inclusiveness for local residents at Fingal Bay Foreshore with amenities and furniture upgrades, including demolishing existing amenities, constructing a new inclusive, DDA-compliant amenities building, and upgrading pathway connections. The project also included park furniture upgrades and the installation of a playground shade sail.
701 residents of Shoal Bay (NSW) are employed, from a labour force of 741. Unemployment sits at 5.4%, with participation at 44.6%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.8% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Shoal Bay maintains a skilled local workforce with solid representation in essential services, recording an unemployment rate of 5.4% and an estimated annual employment expansion of 1.3% according to AreaSearch aggregated data. In March 2026701 residents were employed; the local jobless rate sat 1.3% above the 4.1% recorded for Regional NSW, and the labour force participation rate of 44.6% trailed the Regional NSW benchmark of 60.6%. At the Census, 22.1% of workers indicated they were working remotely, though pandemic-related lockdown measures should be kept in mind. The primary employment fields for the local workforce are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction.
Accommodation & food represents a standout area of local specialization, capturing an employment share 2.0 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing accounts for a smaller footprint, employing only 1.4% of the local workforce relative to 5.3% in Regional NSW. Although local positions are available, comparisons between the Census working population and resident counts suggest a substantial share of residents travel outside the area for work. AreaSearch analysis of ABS and SALM statistical data shows that across the 12 months to March 2026, resident employment rose by 1.3% while the labour pool grew by 0.5%, resulting in a 0.7 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. Over the identical timeframe, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 0.9% and the labour force contract by 0.4%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 provide additional context on future workforce needs for the locality. Across Australia, total employment is projected to expand by 6.6% across five years and 13.7% over ten years, with distinct variances among industry sectors. Weighting these sectoral expectations across the local industry profile points to a potential local employment increase of 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years (calculated as a baseline illustrative weighting without incorporating local population projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Shoal Bay (NSW) is $1,007 a week (about $52,000 a year), with median personal income at $623 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $40,594 a year against an average of $57,833. The average runs 42% above the median, a wider spread than most areas and a sign of a concentrated group of high earners. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest ATO postcode data compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, taxpayers in the suburb of Shoal Bay recorded a median income of $40,594 and an average of $57,833, trailing national benchmarks and falling below the Regional NSW median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023 yields updated estimates of approximately $44,783 for median earnings and $63,801 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census placed Shoal Bay's household, family, and individual incomes between the 3rd and 14th percentiles across Australia.
The most common income tier encompasses 32.1% of residents (586 people) in the $400 - 799 range, contrasting with Regional NSW where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is largest at 29.9%. With 40.7% of earners receiving less than $800 weekly, significant financial strain is evident across the community. Housing cost burdens are pronounced, leaving just 80.1% of income uncommitted and placing the area in the 4th percentile nationwide.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Shoal Bay (NSW) had 821 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 53% detached houses and 14% apartments. 19% are owned with a mortgage, 37% rented and 44% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $338 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,700 a month. Rent absorbs 33.6% of household income here and mortgage repayments 39.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to the latest Census, residential dwellings in Shoal Bay were split between 52.9% separate houses and 47.2% other residential formats (including apartments, townhouses, and alternate dwellings), contrasting with Regional NSW where houses comprised 82.6% and other dwellings accounted for 17.4%. Outright property ownership in Shoal Bay stood at 43.9%, well above regional benchmarks, while remaining homes were mortgaged (19.0%) or occupied by tenants (37.1%). Typical monthly mortgage commitments were $1,700, below the Regional NSW figure of $1,733, while median weekly rent sat at $338 versus $330 regionally. On a national scale, local monthly mortgage repayments sat below the Australian benchmark of $1,863, and weekly rents were lower than the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Shoal Bay (NSW) counted 821 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.0 people each. 14% are couples with children, fewer than in 95% of areas nationally, against 31% couples without children. 42% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units constitute 54.9% of all local households, divided between couple families without children (30.7%), couples with dependent children (13.7%), and single parent households (10.4%). Non-family living arrangements account for the other 45.1%, dominated by lone person households at 42.0% alongside group households at 2.8%. With a median household occupancy of 2.0 people, average dwelling density is lower than the Regional NSW benchmark of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
19.9% of adults in Shoal Bay (NSW) hold a university qualification, including 14.7% with a bachelor degree and 4.2% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 30.7% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 270 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 965 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Tertiary qualification levels present an area for community development, with 19.9% of residents holding a higher education degree compared to 32.2% across NSW overall. Among degree holders, bachelor qualifications are most prevalent at 14.7%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 4.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.0%. Technical and vocational training is strongly represented, with 43.4% of the population aged 15+ possessing vocational credentials, including 12.7% with advanced diplomas and 30.7% holding certificates. Formal study engagement is substantial, with 27.7% of the community undertaking an educational course. Broken down by stage of schooling, 9.7% of residents attend primary school, 8.0% are enrolled in secondary education, and 3.3% are engaged in tertiary studies.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Shoal Bay (NSW) reaches 21 stops on 22 routes, timetabled for about 280 services a week. The typical home sits about 140 m from its nearest stop. Households keep an average of 0.9 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transit infrastructure in Shoal Bay features 21 active transit stops operating across the suburb, served by bus networks. A total of 22 distinct routes run through the area, providing 276 weekly passenger trips. Local transit accessibility is high, with an average distance of 144 meters to the nearest transit stop. With the suburb functioning mainly as a residential locality, most workers commute out of the area; private vehicles are the primary mode of travel at 87%, while 9% walk. Private vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, sitting below regional norms, and 22.1% of workers worked from home at the 2021 Census (which may incorporate pandemic-era effects).
Transit service schedules average 39 trips per day across all available routes, translating to roughly 13 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
56.4% of residents in Shoal Bay (NSW) report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 75% of areas nationally. 7.8% need daily assistance with core activities, and 49.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 8.2 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health considerations are prominent in Shoal Bay, where AreaSearch metrics on mortality and disease prevalence show medical conditions appearing across both younger and senior residents. Private health insurance participation is relatively subdued at approximately 50% of residents (~911 people), which sits below both the Regional NSW level of 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%. Arthritis and mental health conditions represent the leading diagnosed ailments in the area, affecting 14.3 and 9.1% of the community respectively, while 56.4% of residents reported no chronic health issues compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW.
Working-age cohorts record above-average rates of long-term medical conditions. Seniors aged 65 and over comprise 45.0% of the population (822 people), markedly higher than the 23.3% share across Regional NSW, with general senior health outcomes tracking close to national averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Shoal Bay (NSW) is largely Australian-born, at 80.4% of residents, with 6.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (32.3%) and Australian (27.1%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Shoal Bay displays modest cultural diversity metrics, with 82.9% holding Australian citizenship, 80.4% born within Australia, and 93.9% speaking only English in their households. Christianity is the predominant religious affiliation, encompassing 59.9% of local residents, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. Looking at ancestral background based on parental birthplace, the most frequent heritages in Shoal Bay are English (32.3%), Australian (27.1%), and Irish (10.5%). Several other ancestries show higher representation than typical regional figures, including Polish at 0.8% (compared to 0.5% regionally), Scottish at 8.5% (versus 8.0%), and Maori at 0.6% (versus 0.3%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Shoal Bay (NSW) is 59, older than 98% of areas nationally. 16.0% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
With its coastal setting and established retiree base, the age demographic in the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) is heavily weighted towards mature residents. Those aged 65+ comprise 45.0% of the population as at August 2026, compared to 23.3% across Regional NSW, whereas youth and young adults aged 0 - 24 represent 19.6% against a regional benchmark of 29.3%. The median age is estimated at 59 as at August 2026, matching the 2021 Census figure, which was 16 years older than the Regional NSW median of 43 and well above the Australian median of 38 at that Census.
Since the Census, the retiree and senior cohort has risen from 40.9% to an estimated 45.0%. Projections to 2041 anticipate this senior bracket expanding by 194 (24%) to 1,017 people, while the young adult and child demographic is expected to contract.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Shoal Bay (NSW)
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 5 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 10 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (1,815 at the 2021 Census → 1,828 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL13554). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.