Shoal Bay (NSW)

Shoal Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Shoal Bay (NSW) (SA2) is around 1,802 people, a decrease of 13 individuals since the 2021 Census. This reflects a resident population of 1,778 as of June 2024, with an additional 7 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 448 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed significantly to population growth in recent periods, accounting for around 98% of overall gains. AreaSearch utilises ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data.

By 2041, Shoal Bay (NSW) is projected to grow by 254 persons, reflecting an overall gain of 16.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Shoal Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Shoal Bay has seen minimal construction activity over the past five years, with only two new dwellings approved annually on average. This totals to 12 approvals in total during this period. Such low development levels are typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that due to the small number of approvals, individual development projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics. Compared to Rest of NSW and national averages, Shoal Bay has much lower development activity. The new developments consist of 50% standalone homes and 50% townhouses or apartments, indicating a skew towards compact living which offers affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. Currently, there are an estimated 525 people in the area per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Shoal Bay is forecasted to gain 296 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Shoal Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

No changes can impact an area's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Newcastle Offshore Wind Project, and Draft Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan 2036. The following list outlines those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Shoal Bay faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Shoal Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.6% as of an AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025702 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 1.8% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 39.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and construction. The area had a particularly notable concentration in accommodation & food, with employment levels at 2.0 times the regional average.

Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with 1.4% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. Many residents appeared to commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, labour force decreased by 3.4% and employment decreased by 3.0%, resulting in the unemployment rate falling by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment had contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shoal Bay's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that income in Shoal Bay is below the national average. The median income is $40,594 while the average income stands at $57,833. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $44,191 (median) and $62,957 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Shoal Bay all fall between the 3rd and 14th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 32.1% of the community (578 individuals), unlike trends in the surrounding region where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. The concentration of 40.7% in sub-$800 weekly brackets highlights economic challenges facing a significant portion of the community. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile.

Shoal Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Shoal Bay, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 52.9% houses and 47.2% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shoal Bay was 43.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 19.0% and rented dwellings at 37.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,700, below the Non-Metro NSW average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Shoal Bay was $338, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Shoal Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Shoal Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 54.9% of all households, including 13.7% couples with children, 30.7% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 45.1%, with lone person households at 42.0% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4 people.

Educational outcomes in Shoal Bay fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (30.7%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.7% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 3.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 21 active stops operating in Shoal Bay, offering mixed bus services. These are covered by 22 routes, offering 280 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport access is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 144 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 40 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shoal Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Shoal Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately half of Shoal Bay's total population (~898 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.3%) and mental health issues (9.1%). While 56.4% of residents report no medical ailments, this is slightly lower than the Rest of NSW figure at 59.3%. Shoal Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (41.9%, or 755 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 28.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Shoal Bay are better than those for the general population.

Shoal Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shoal Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.9% of its population being citizens born in Australia who predominantly speak English only at home (80.4%, 93.9% respectively). Christianity is the main religion in Shoal Bay, practiced by 59.9% of residents, slightly higher than the 57.4% regional average in Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.3%), Australian (27.1%), and Irish (10.5%).

Notably, Polish (0.8%) and Scottish (8.5%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to their regional counterparts (0.6%, 8.3% respectively), while Maori representation is also higher at 0.6%.

Shoal Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Shoal Bay's median age is 59, significantly higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shoal Bay has a higher proportion of residents aged 85+ (10.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (6.6%). This concentration of 85+ residents is well above the national figure of 2.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 14.4% to 15.2%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 10.1% to 9.1%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shoal Bay's age structure. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 89%, adding 168 residents to reach a total of 358. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 80% of this growth. Conversely, the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age cohorts are anticipated to experience population declines.