Shoal Bay (NSW)

Suburb (SAL)

Rest of NSW / Port Stephens

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Data Sources ABSValuer GeneralRental BoardACARA Newest Aug 2026 · Refreshed ABS QuickStats SAL13554 How we calculate this
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Suburb (SAL) Boundary Analysis

This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.

SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.

Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.

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Sales ActivityProperty Sales Trends in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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The median house price in Shoal Bay (NSW) is $1.27m, with units at $810k. House values have moved 5.5% a year compounded over five years.

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DemographicsPopulation Growth in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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Shoal Bay (NSW) has an estimated 1,829 residents. That puts 455 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.

Detail

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census Shoal Bay's population is estimated at around 1,829 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 14 people (0.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,815 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,827, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 8 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 455 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development.

Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 98.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia released in 2024, using 2022 as a baseline, have been adopted for each SA2 region. For any SA2 locations lacking this coverage, figures are sourced from the 2022 NSW State Government SA2 projections with a 2021 base year. Growth rates segmented by age from these aggregated sources are applied to all locations for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on these anticipated demographic transitions, population expansion is projected to track slightly below the midpoint for non-metropolitan areas, with the region expected to add 202 residents by 2041 based on compiled SA2 projections, representing a total rise of 10.9% over the 16 years.

Frequently Asked Questions - Population

What is the latest population estimate for the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Total population for the suburb of Shoal Bay was estimated to be approximately 1,829 as at May 26. This is based upon an estimated resident population of 1,827 from the ABS up to June 2025.
How has the population in the suburb of Shoal Bay changed since 2021?
The suburb of shoal bay has added approximately 14 people and shown a 0.77% increase from the 1,815 people recorded at the 2021 Census period.
What is the population density in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The population density in the suburb of Shoal Bay is estimated at 455 persons per square kilometer based on the latest population estimate.
How much has the population grown over the past 10 years in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Over the past 10 years, the population in the suburb of Shoal Bay has shown a compound annual growth rate of -0.6% per annum.
What are the main drivers of population growth in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Population growth in the suburb of Shoal Bay is driven by: Overseas migration (98.0%), Interstate migration (2.0%), Natural increase (0.0%). The primary driver is Overseas migration, contributing 98.0% of overall population gains.

Residential SupplyHousing Development & Building Approvals in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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41 new dwellings have been approved in Shoal Bay (NSW) over the past five years, an average of 8 a year. That is 4.5 approvals per 1,000 residents. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 5, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.

Detail

According to building approval figures compiled by AreaSearch from statistical area datasets, the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) averages roughly 8 residential building approvals annually, summing to approximately 41 residences over the preceding 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 5 approvals have been registered. Given that the local population has been shrinking, the incoming housing stock has likely matched demand, providing ample choices for prospective purchasers, with newly constructed residences carrying an average valuation of $721,000, indicating that builders are focusing on premium, high-end housing. Compared against the rest of the state, the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) registers approximately 75% of the per capita building activity, placing it in the 37th percentile of all analyzed locations across the country, which restricts options for buyers and strengthens interest in established properties.

Recent builds consist of 20.0% standalone houses and 80.0% multi-unit dwellings. This orientation toward denser housing options offers more attainable price points and appeals to downsizers, property investors, and buyers entering the market for the first time. This represents a distinct shift from the current housing stock, which consists of 53.0% detached houses, demonstrating a shrinking pool of buildable land, evolving lifestyle preferences, and a requirement for a more varied and attainable housing mix. The ratio of 456 residents for each building approval points to a quiet, low-scale development landscape. Projections indicate that the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) will gain 200 residents by 2041, according to the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. Current building volumes seem aligned with upcoming requirements, encouraging balanced market dynamics without significant upward pressure on prices.

Frequently Asked Questions - Development

How many dwelling approvals have occurred in the suburb of Shoal Bay recently?
Dwelling approval activity in the the suburb of Shoal Bay area has seen 8 residential approvals over the past two financial years, based on AreaSearch's SA2 aggregation method. The suburb of Shoal Bay's current population of 1,829 has been supported by 8 approvals on average over recent years.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay's development activity compare to the broader region?
The suburb of Shoal Bay has seen 0.45 approvals per 100 people in recent years, compared to 0.58 approvals in the broader region. This means that one dwelling has been approved for every 455 people in the suburb of Shoal Bay, compared to one for every 192 in the broader region.
Is the suburb of Shoal Bay keeping up with housing demand?
With the population expected to increase by 200 people by 2041, around 100 new dwellings will be necessary. Recent approval levels may be insufficient to meet these forecasts, considering the census average of 2.0 persons per dwelling. This indicates potential housing shortages if current approval trends continue.
What has been the trend in development approvals over the past five years in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Looking at development activity over the past five years, the suburb of Shoal Bay's approval levels have been significantly below the yearly average of 8, showing a notable downturn in recent development.
How many dwellings will be needed to accommodate future population growth in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The population in the suburb of Shoal Bay is expected to grow by 200 people by 2041, necessitating approximately 100 new dwellings. This calculation is based on the current census average of 2.0 persons per dwelling in the area.
How does recent development compare to population growth in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Over the past five years, the population in the suburb of Shoal Bay has grown by approximately 267 people, while 41 residential approvals were recorded. This equates to a ratio of 6.5 people added for each new dwelling approval. This high ratio suggests strong population growth relative to housing supply, potentially indicating unmet housing demand.
Are there opportunities for residential developers in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
With dwelling approval activity running at an average of 8 approvals per year and a population of 1,829, there appears to be a supply shortfall relative to projected demand, presenting strong opportunities for residential developers. With the population expected to increase by 200 people by 2041, around 100 new dwellings will be necessary. Current approval trends may be insufficient to meet forecast demand, indicating strong development opportunities.
Approvals Pipeline Development applications near Shoal Bay (NSW)

Development applications around Shoal Bay (NSW)

Development approvals is a new addition to AreaSearch. We’re actively expanding council coverage and refining the dataset — details and statuses for some councils may be partial. Check back regularly for the latest pipeline.
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.

Project PipelineInfrastructure & Major Projects in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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AreaSearch tracks 40 current infrastructure and development projects close to Shoal Bay (NSW), worth an estimated $1.27 billion. 5 are already under construction and 12 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and tourism. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.

Detail

Infrastructure updates, major works, and local planning decisions are critical drivers of regional outcomes. AreaSearch has identified no projects that are expected to influence the local area. Key regional frameworks include the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), the Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, the Newcastle Offshore Wind Project, and the Draft Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan 2036, with the list below highlighting those of most significance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure

What are some of the major infrastructure and planning changes likely to influence the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Key infrastructure and planning changes likely to influence the suburb of Shoal Bay include: Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP) (Approved); Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program (Planning); Newcastle Offshore Wind Project (Proposed); Draft Greater Newcastle Metropolitan Plan 2036 (Planning); and Hunter Regional Plan 2041 (Planning). These projects represent significant developments that will shape the area's future infrastructure landscape.
What types of infrastructure projects are impacting the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Infrastructure development impacting the suburb of Shoal Bay spans multiple sectors including Transport & Logistics, Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal, and Energy, among others.
What is the scale of infrastructure investment impacting the suburb of Shoal Bay?
While specific investment values are not publicly disclosed for all projects impacting the suburb of Shoal Bay, the area shows active development across multiple infrastructure categories within the broader region.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay's infrastructure development compare to other areas?
With an infrastructure score in the top 40%, the suburb of Shoal Bay demonstrates above-average development activity compared to national benchmarks.
Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan
Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal
Stage: Construction | Est. Comp: 2039
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

A 20-year vision by Port Stephens Council to revitalise the Nelson Bay town centre and foreshore. The plan focuses on upgrading streetscapes, improving pedestrian connectivity, and creating a greener, more attractive environment. Recent works include the Stockton Street stage upgrades and pedestrian wayfinding improvements, supported by smart parking revenue and government grants.

Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal

The Belvedere
Category: Residential Development
Stage: Planning | Est. Comp: 2027
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

An eight-storey luxury residential development comprising 56 apartments including two- and three-bedroom residences and penthouses, with rooftop amenities such as a pool, spa, gym, and sauna, along with communal green spaces, an office, and a coffee shop, aimed at addressing housing shortages in Port Stephens.

Residential Development

d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel
Category: Tourism
Stage: Planning | Est. Comp: 0
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

Demolition of existing on-land structures at Nelson Bay Marina and construction of a four-storey 122-room waterfront hotel across three multi-storey buildings, along with upgraded restaurant and cafe facilities, enhanced retail spaces, a boat maintenance workshop, outdoor and rooftop terraces, a new foreshore public plaza, and multi-level car parking. A State Significant Development application (SSD-77938524) is being prepared for submission to the NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure following community engagement completed in October 2025.The precinct is owned and operated by d'Albora Marinas (MA Financial).

Tourism

Nelson Bay Apartments
Category: Residential Development
Stage: Approved | Est. Comp: 0

High-end block of five residential apartments, six storeys, penthouse with pool, ocean views.

Residential Development

14 Market Street, Fingal Bay Mixed-Use (Shop-top Housing)
Category: Residential Development
Stage: Approved | Est. Comp: 0
Source / Links: Link 1   

DA-approved shop-top housing: 3 apartments (two 2-bedroom units and one full-floor penthouse) over ground-floor retail with on-grade parking. Site is approximately 200m from Fingal Beach. Property was marketed for sale in 2024 with DA in place and the ground-floor commercial space is currently advertised for lease, indicating no construction commencement as of the latest checks.

Residential Development

Kurrara Hill
Category: Residential Development
Stage: Approved | Est. Comp: 0
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

A 10-storey mixed-use development featuring 48 modern apartments with a mix of one to four-bedroom units, two business premises, one retail space, premium landscaping, and secure on-site parking.

Residential Development

Engadine Rsl And Fingal Bay Sports Club Development
Category: Sports & Recreation
Stage: Proposed | Est. Comp: 0
Source / Links: Link 1   

Societie Group is seeking development partners for a joint-venture redevelopment opportunity at Engadine RSL and Fingal Bay Sports Club sites to explore a variety of potential end-uses and synergies, future-proofing the clubs.

Sports & Recreation

Fingal Bay Foreshore Upgrade
Category: Sports & Recreation
Stage: Completed | Est. Comp: 0
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

Improve accessibility and inclusiveness for local residents at Fingal Bay Foreshore with amenities and furniture upgrades, including demolishing existing amenities, constructing a new inclusive, DDA-compliant amenities building, and upgrading pathway connections. The project also included park furniture upgrades and the installation of a playground shade sail.

Sports & Recreation

Jobs & IndustryEmployment Trends in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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694 residents of Shoal Bay (NSW) are employed, from a labour force of 733. Unemployment sits at 5.3%, with participation at 44.4%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.8% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.

Detail

The employment landscape in Shoal Bay is characterized by a competent labor pool and strong representation across vital service industries, alongside an unemployment rate of 5.3% and an estimated annual employment growth of 0.7%, according to AreaSearch aggregated statistical area information. By March 2026, the local workforce numbered 694 individuals, yet the unemployment rate stood 1.2% higher than the Regional NSW average of 4.1%, while workforce participation remained markedly lower at 44.4% relative to the regional benchmark of 60.6%. Census data indicated that 22.1% of residents engaged in remote work, although the lingering effects of Covid-19 lockdowns should be taken into account when interpreting these figures.

Local workers are mostly employed in healthcare and social assistance, lodging and food services, and the building industry. The suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) exhibits a particularly high concentration in lodging and food services, where employment is 2.0 times the regional norm. In contrast, agriculture, forestry, and fishing are underrepresented at 1.4% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Although there are local employment options, a comparison of the Census working population against the total local population suggests a significant portion of residents travel to other areas for work. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from broader regions, the 12 months leading to March 2026 saw employment expand by 0.7% while the overall workforce remained unchanged at 0.0%, resulting in a decrease in the unemployment rate of 0.7 percentage points. This contrast with Regional NSW, where employment declined by 0.9%, the labour force shrank by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.5 percentage points. Job prospects can be further understood through national forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia issued in May-25. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local workforce composition to estimate growth. Locally, applying these industry weightings indicates employment should rise by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, compared to national projections of 6.6% and 13.7% respectively, though this is a simple weighted projection and does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Frequently Asked Questions - Employment

What is the employment situation in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
As of March 2026, the suburb of Shoal Bay has approximately 694 employed residents with an unemployment rate of 5.3%. The unemployment rate is moderate, indicating some available workforce capacity. The area faces employment challenges compared to other regions nationally.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay's unemployment rate compare to the broader region?
As of March 2026, the unemployment rate in the suburb of Shoal Bay stands at 5.3%, which is 1.2 percentage points above Regional NSW's rate of 4.1%. This higher unemployment rate may indicate local labour market challenges. For comparison, the national unemployment rate is 4.2%.
What are the major employment sectors in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The employment landscape in the suburb of Shoal Bay is dominated by several key sectors. The largest employers are health care & social assistance (19.3% of employment), accommodation & food (15.3%), and construction (9.7%). Other significant employers include retail trade and education & training.
How has employment changed recently in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Over the past year to March 2026, the suburb of Shoal Bay has experienced employment growth, with total employment increasing while the labour force remained stable. As a result, the unemployment rate has fall. By comparison, Regional NSW saw employment decreased and its unemployment rate rose.
What is the workforce participation rate in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The workforce participation rate in the suburb of Shoal Bay is 44.4%, which represents the proportion of working-age residents who are either employed or actively seeking work. The relatively low participation rate may indicate limited job opportunities or demographic factors affecting workforce engagement. The local rate trailing the Regional NSW average of 60.6%, suggesting potential for increased workforce participation.
Which industries are over-represented in the suburb of Shoal Bay's employment market?
The suburb of shoal bay shows notable specialization in accommodation & food, which employs 15.3% of the local workforce compared to 7.8% regionally. This concentration suggests the area has developed competitive advantages in this sector. The area also shows above-average employment in 2 other sectors, contributing to a distinctive economic profile.
What are the employment growth prospects for the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Based on Jobs and Skills Australia projections applied to the suburb of Shoal Bay's industry mix, employment is expected to grow by 6.8% over the next five years and 14.0% over ten years. This exceeds the national forecast of 6.6% over five years, suggesting the area's industry composition is well-positioned for future growth. Steady growth is anticipated across multiple sectors, providing diverse employment opportunities.
How does the job market in the suburb of Shoal Bay compare nationally?
The suburb of shoal bay's employment market shows weaker performance compared to most areas nationally. This suggests the need for targeted economic development initiatives. Recent job advertisement trends show the broader employment region saw a 1.7% decline, ranking 21.0st out of 37 regions nationally.
What employment opportunities exist for skilled workers in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Skilled workers will find good opportunities in the suburb of Shoal Bay, with skilled sectors accounting for 35.3% of employment. Key sectors for skilled workers include health care & social assistance (19.3%), education & training (7.3%), and professional & technical (6.8%). With projected employment growth of 6.8% over five years, demand for skilled workers is expected to remain strong.

EarningsHousehold Income in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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Median household income in Shoal Bay (NSW) is $1,007 a week (about $52,000 a year), with median personal income at $623 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $40,594 a year against an average of $57,833. The average runs 42% above the median, a wider spread than most areas and a sign of a concentrated group of high earners. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.

Detail

According to the most recent postcode tax statistics from the ATO for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) have a median income of $40,594 and an average income of $57,833. This falls below national benchmarks, and compares to a median of $52,390 and average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Adjusted for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since the 2023 financial year, estimated figures as of March 2026 would be roughly $44,783 for the median and $63,801 for the average. Census data places household, family, and individual incomes in the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) between the 3rd and 14th percentiles nationally.

The largest cohort, representing 32.1% of taxpayers (587 residents), earns between $400 - 799 weekly, whereas the broader region sees its largest group of 29.9% in the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket. Low-income households are highly represented, with 40.7% earning under $800 weekly, pointing to financial pressure for many. Housing costs consume a significant portion of earnings, leaving just 80.1% of income remaining, which ranks in the 4th percentile.

Frequently Asked Questions - Income

What is the median taxable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Based on Wage Price Index adjustments to March 2026, the estimated median taxable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay is approximately $44,783. The official ATO data from FY-23 recorded a median of $40,594.
What is the average taxable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Based on Wage Price Index adjustments to March 2026, the estimated average taxable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay is approximately $63,801. The official ATO data from FY-23 recorded an average of $57,833.
How does the median taxable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay compare to the region?
Based on Wage Price Index adjustments to March 2026, the estimated median taxable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay is approximately $44,783 compared to $57,797 in Regional NSW. The official ATO data from FY-23 shows $40,594 and $52,390 respectively.
How does the average taxable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay compare to the region?
Based on Wage Price Index adjustments to March 2026, the estimated average taxable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay is approximately $63,801 compared to $71,945 in Regional NSW. The official ATO data from FY-23 shows $57,833 and $65,215 respectively.
What are the main income cohorts in the suburb of Shoal Bay according to the 2021 Census?
As per the 2021 Census, the income bracket containing the largest proportion (~32.1% / 587 persons) of the suburb of Shoal Bay's population is the $400 - 799 cohort.
How do the main income cohorts in the suburb of Shoal Bay compare to the region?
The largest income cohort in the suburb of Shoal Bay is the $400 - 799 group, representing about 32.1% of the population. In comparison, Regional NSW's largest income cohort is the $1,500 - 2,999 group, representing 29.9% of its population, according to the 2021 Census.
What is the median household income in the suburb of Shoal Bay according to the 2021 Census?
The 2021 Census data indicates that the median household income in the suburb of Shoal Bay is $1,007/wk.
What is the median family income in the suburb of Shoal Bay according to the 2021 Census?
According to the 2021 Census, the median family income in the suburb of Shoal Bay is $1,441/wk.
What is the median personal income in the suburb of Shoal Bay according to the 2021 Census?
The 2021 Census shows that the median personal income in the suburb of Shoal Bay is $623/wk.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay's income rank nationally?
The suburb of Shoal Bay shows a median taxpayer income of $40,594 and an average of $57,833 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is below the national average, contrasting with Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $44,783 (median) and $63,801 (average) as of March 2026.
What is the disposable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The estimated disposable income in the suburb of Shoal Bay is $3,497 per year according to AreaSearch analysis.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay's disposable income compare to the region?
The suburb of shoal bay's disposable income is $3,497 compared to $5,252 for Regional NSW, based on AreaSearch analysis.

Housing StockHousing & Dwellings in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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Shoal Bay (NSW) had 821 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 53% detached houses and 14% apartments. 19% are owned with a mortgage, 37% rented and 44% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $338 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,700 a month. Rent absorbs 33.6% of household income here and mortgage repayments 39.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.

Detail

Housing types in the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) at the time of the latest Census consisted of 52.9% standalone houses and 47.2% alternative options such as duplexes, apartments, and other configurations, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings in Regional NSW. Home ownership was higher than the regional average, with 43.9% owning their properties outright, while 19.0% had mortgages and 37.1% rented. Median monthly home loan repayments were lower than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, standing at $1,700, while median weekly rent was $338, compared to $330 regionally.

On a national level, repayments in the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are below the national median of $375.

Frequently Asked Questions - Housing

What percentage of homes are owned vs rented in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
In the suburb of Shoal Bay, 43.9% of homes are owned outright, 19.0% are owned with a mortgage, and 37.1% are rented.
What percentage of dwellings in the suburb of Shoal Bay are houses?
According to the latest data, 52.9% of dwellings in the suburb of Shoal Bay are houses.
What percentage of dwellings in the suburb of Shoal Bay are apartments or units?
In the suburb of Shoal Bay, 13.9% of dwellings are apartments or units, with an additional 33.3% being semi-detached dwellings.
What is the level of outright home ownership in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Outright home ownership in the suburb of Shoal Bay stands at 43.9%, compared to 39.6% in Regional NSW.
What is the median monthly mortgage repayment in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The median monthly mortgage repayment in the suburb of Shoal Bay is $1,700, compared to $1,733 in Regional NSW.
What is the median weekly rent in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The median weekly rent in the suburb of Shoal Bay is $338, compared to $330 in Regional NSW.
What is the distribution of rental prices in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
In the suburb of Shoal Bay, 12.8% of rentals are $0-149/week, 39.5% are $150-349/week, 46.1% are $350-649/week, 1.6% are $650-949/week, and 0.0% are $950+/week.
What is the average monthly housing cost in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The aggregate monthly housing cost in the suburb of Shoal Bay is $866, which represents the average monthly cost across all housing types.
What percentage of income do residents spend on housing in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
In the suburb of Shoal Bay, households with mortgages typically spend 39.0% of their income on mortgage repayments, while renters spend 33.6% of their income on rent.
How crowded are homes in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The average persons per bedroom ratio in the suburb of Shoal Bay is 0.7, indicating the level of household density.
How does housing affordability in the suburb of Shoal Bay compare to the region?
Housing affordability in the suburb of Shoal Bay shows mortgage holders spending 39.0% of income on repayments (vs 27.9% regionally), while renters spend 33.6% of income on rent (vs 23.0% regionally).
What types of dwellings are most common in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The dwelling mix in the suburb of Shoal Bay consists of 52.9% detached houses, 33.3% semi-detached dwellings, 13.9% apartments, and 0.0% other dwelling types.
What is the weighted average housing cost based on tenure mix in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Factoring in the ownership distribution, the weighted average monthly housing cost is approximately $866. This accounts for outright owners paying no housing costs, mortgage holders paying $1,700/month, and renters paying $1,464/month.
How affordable is housing in the suburb of Shoal Bay relative to local incomes?
Housing in Shoal Bay consumes approximately 19.9% of median household income ($4,360 monthly), indicating costs are highly affordable. The generally accepted benchmark is that housing should not exceed 30% of household income.
How do proposed developments compare to existing housing types in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Development activity remains minimal in this area with fewer than 5 recent applications recorded.

HouseholdsHousehold Composition in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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Shoal Bay (NSW) counted 821 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.0 people each. 14% are couples with children, fewer than in 95% of areas nationally, against 31% couples without children. 42% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.

Detail

Families make up 54.9% of all households, consisting of 13.7% couples with children, 30.7% couples without children, and 10.4% single-parent households. The remaining 45.1% are non-family households, with single-person households representing 42.0% and shared households accounting for 2.8% of the total. The median household occupancy is 2.0 people, which is lower than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Frequently Asked Questions - Households

How many households are in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
As of the 2021 Census, the suburb of Shoal Bay had 821 households. Based on population growth patterns, this has remained relatively stable to an estimated 827 households today.
What is the typical household size?
The median household size in the suburb of Shoal Bay is 2.0 people. This compares to 2.4 in Regional NSW and reflects the area's household composition mix.
What types of households are most common?
Family households dominate at 54.9% of all households. The remaining households consist of lone person households (42.0%), group households (2.8%), and other household types (0.0%).
How are families structured in the area?
Among the 450 family households, 13.7% are couples with children, 30.7% are couples without children at home, and 10.4% are single parent families. This mix shapes local demand for schools, family services, and housing types.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay compare to regional household patterns?
Compared to Regional NSW, the suburb of Shoal Bay shows distinct household patterns. Lone person households are notably over-represented at 42.0% (versus 27.9% regionally). Conversely, family households are under-represented at 54.9% compared to the regional 68.8%. This higher proportion of single-person households drives demand for smaller dwellings and different community services.
What is the average family size?
Families in the suburb of Shoal Bay have an average of 1.9 children, slightly above the Regional NSW average of 1.8. This influences local demand for child-related services and larger family homes.
What are the marriage patterns in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Marriage patterns reveal 42.6% of the adult population are currently married, while 24.1% have never married. This compares to 45.6% married and 34.3% never married across Regional NSW.
How significant are single-person households?
Single-person households represent 42.0% of all households in the suburb of Shoal Bay, higher than the regional average of 27.9%. This affects demand for smaller dwellings and single-person accommodation.
Are shared living arrangements common?
Group households (unrelated people sharing) account for 2.8% of households, well below the Regional NSW average of 3.3%. This low rate suggests limited student or young professional shared accommodation.
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EducationSchools & Education in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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19.9% of adults in Shoal Bay (NSW) hold a university qualification, including 14.7% with a bachelor degree and 4.2% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 30.7% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 270 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 965 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.

Detail

The region presents educational disparities, with university completion rates at 19.9%, which is lower than the state-wide average of 32.2%. This shows a clear gap and an opening for focused educational policies. Undergraduate degrees are the most common higher qualification at 14.7%, with postgraduate degrees at 4.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.0%. Practical and vocational skills are common, with 43.4% of residents aged 15+ holding trade qualifications, comprising advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 30.7%. A significant proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 27.7% of residents enrolled in an educational program.

This is made up of 9.7% in primary school, 8.0% in high school, and 3.3% enrolled in higher education.

Frequently Asked Questions - Education

What percentage of people in the suburb of Shoal Bay have university qualifications?
19.9% of people aged 15 and over in the suburb of Shoal Bay have university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the broader region.
What percentage of people in the suburb of Shoal Bay have no formal qualifications?
36.8% of people aged 15 and over in the suburb of Shoal Bay have no formal qualifications, compared to 39.1% regionally.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay's education level compare to national averages?
The suburb of shoal bay ranks in the 34th percentile nationally for education based on AreaSearch's analysis of qualification and performance metrics.
What types of qualifications are most common in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The most common qualifications in the suburb of Shoal Bay are: Certificate (30.7%), Bachelor Degree (14.7%), Advanced Diploma (12.7%).
What proportion of the suburb of Shoal Bay's population is currently attending educational institutions?
27.7% of the population in the suburb of Shoal Bay is currently engaged in formal education, with 9.7% in primary school, 8.0% in secondary school, 3.3% at university.
What is the ICSEA score for schools in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The average ICSEA (Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage) score for schools in the suburb of Shoal Bay is 965, indicating below-average socio-educational advantage compared to the national average of 1000.
How many schools are located within the suburb of Shoal Bay?
There are 1 schools within the suburb of Shoal Bay, with a combined enrollment of approximately 270 students.
What types of schools are available in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The suburb of shoal bay includes 1 primary school.

Schools Detail

AmenitiesServices & Amenities in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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Getting AroundTransport & Commuting in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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Public transport in Shoal Bay (NSW) reaches 21 stops on 22 routes, timetabled for about 280 services a week. The typical home sits about 140 m from its nearest stop. Households keep an average of 0.9 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.

Detail

Public transit analysis shows 21 transit stops located within the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW), consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 22 routes, offering a total of 280 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is highly rated, with residents living an average of 144 meters from their closest stop. Because the suburb is mostly residential, many workers travel outside the area, with private vehicles remaining the primary mode of travel at 87% and walking accounting for 9%. Car ownership stands at an average of 0.9 vehicles per household, which is below the regional average.

A total of 22.1% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been impacted by pandemic conditions. Transit service frequency averages 40 runs per day across all routes, which translates to about 13 weekly trips per transit stop.

Frequently Asked Questions - Transport

How many public transport stops are in Shoal Bay (NSW)?
There are 21 public transport stops within the suburb of Shoal Bay.
How frequent are the transport services in Shoal Bay (NSW)?
the suburb of Shoal Bay has 280 weekly trips across 22 routes, averaging 40 trips per day.
How far are residents from public transport in Shoal Bay (NSW)?
On average, residential properties are 144 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Transport Stops Detail

HealthcareHealth Services in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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56.4% of residents in Shoal Bay (NSW) report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 75% of areas nationally. 7.8% need daily assistance with core activities, and 49.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 8.2 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.

Detail

The suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) faces notable health concerns based on mortality figures and the prevalence of long-term conditions across multiple age cohorts, alongside a relatively low rate of private health insurance, which covers about 50% of the population (~911 people). This is lower than the 51.9% coverage across Regional NSW and the national level of 55.7%. Joint inflammation and mental health struggles are the most prevalent health concerns locally, affecting 14.3% and 9.1% of the community respectively, while 56.4% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW.

Working-age individuals experience chronic illnesses at rates higher than average. The population includes 44.4% of residents who are aged 65 and over (812 people), exceeding the regional proportion of 23.4%. Senior health outcomes present difficulties, though national health percentiles align closely with broader demographics.

Frequently Asked Questions - Health

How many people in the suburb of Shoal Bay have private health insurance?
Around 49.8% of people in the suburb of Shoal Bay are covered by private health insurance, which compares to 51.9% in the broader region of Regional NSW.
What percentage of the population requires ongoing medical assistance in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
In the suburb of Shoal Bay, 7.8% of the population is identified as requiring ongoing medical assistance. This figure is slightly different from the regional average, where 6.8% of people in Regional NSW require similar assistance.
How prevalent is asthma in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
6.7% of people in the suburb of Shoal Bay are diagnosed with asthma. In comparison, 8.4% of the population across Regional NSW is affected by asthma.
What percentage of people have diabetes in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Diabetes affects 5.5% of the the suburb of Shoal Bay population, while in the surrounding region, 4.7% of people are diagnosed with diabetes.
What is the percentage of people with heart disease in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
5.9% of people in the suburb of Shoal Bay have heart disease. Across the region of Regional NSW, 4.4% of the population is affected by heart disease.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay compare to the region in terms of overall private health coverage?
In the suburb of Shoal Bay, 49.8% of the population are estimated to have private health insurance. Comparatively, Regional NSW sees an estimated private health coverage rate of 51.9%.

Ancestry & LanguageCultural Diversity in Shoal Bay (NSW)

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Shoal Bay (NSW) is largely Australian-born, at 80.4% of residents, with 6.1% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (32.3%) and Australian (27.1%). Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.

Detail

The community has lower levels of cultural diversity than average, with citizens representing 82.9% of the population, 80.4% born locally in Australia, and 93.9% using only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, practiced by 59.9% of residents in the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW), which is higher than the 55.9% observed across Regional NSW. Regarding ancestral backgrounds, the three most common ancestries in the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) are English at 32.3%, Australian at 27.1%, and Irish at 10.5%. There are also distinct differences in other groups, with Polish residents overrepresented at 0.8% (compared to 0.5% in the region), Scottish ancestry at 8.5% (compared to 8.0%), and Maori heritage at 0.6% (compared to 0.3%).

Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity

What is the level of cultural diversity in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
Shoal Bay was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.9% of its population being citizens, 80.4% born in Australia, and 93.9% speaking English only at home.
What is the most common religion in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The main religion in Shoal Bay was found to be Christianity, which makes up 59.9% of people in Shoal Bay. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.
What are the top countries of origin in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Shoal Bay are English, comprising 32.3% of the population, Australian, comprising 27.1% of the population, and Irish, comprising 10.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Polish is notably overrepresented at 0.8% of Shoal Bay (vs 0.5% regionally), Scottish at 8.5% (vs 8.0%) and Maori at 0.6% (vs 0.3%).
How does the percentage of people born overseas compare to the regional average?
19.6% of the the suburb of Shoal Bay population was born overseas, compared to 13.0% regionally.
What percentage of the the suburb of Shoal Bay population speaks a language other than English at home?
6.1% of the population in the suburb of Shoal Bay speaks a language other than English at home, compared to 7.1% in the wider region.
How many people in the suburb of Shoal Bay identify as Australian Aboriginal?
2.5% of the the suburb of Shoal Bay population identifies as Australian Aboriginal, compared to 4.6% in the region.
What is the citizenship status of the population in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
82.9% of the the suburb of Shoal Bay population holds citizenship, compared to 89.2% in the wider region.

Age StructureAge Profile of Shoal Bay (NSW)

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The median resident of Shoal Bay (NSW) is 59, older than 98% of areas nationally. 15.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.

Detail

With a median age of 59, the suburb of Shoal Bay (NSW) is older than Regional NSW, which has a median age of 43, and the nation, which has a median of 38. The area has a high proportion of people aged 75 - 84 at 16.3%, but fewer young adults aged 25 - 34 at 6.6%. The proportion of those aged 75 - 84 is higher than the national figure of 6.1%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 bracket increased from 14.4% to 16.3% of the population, and the 15 to 24 age group grew from 7.9% to 9.1%.

Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 10.1% to 8.5%, and children aged 5 to 14 declined from 8.7% to 7.4%. Looking to 2041, projections suggest significant structural aging. The 85+ cohort is expected to grow by 73%, adding 144 people to reach a total of 344. Demographic aging is set to persist, with people aged 65 and older representing 82% of total growth, while the cohorts aged 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 are projected to shrink.

Frequently Asked Questions - Age

What is the median age in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
According to the latest data, the median age in the suburb of Shoal Bay is 59 years.
How does the suburb of Shoal Bay's median age compare to broader areas?
At 59 years, Shoal Bay is 16 years older than the Regional NSW average (43 years) and 21 years older than the national average (38 years).
What age groups are over-represented in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The most over-represented age group in the suburb of Shoal Bay compared to the Regional NSW region is the 75 - 84 group, making up 16.3% of the population.
What age groups are under-represented in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The most under-represented age group in the suburb of Shoal Bay compared to the Regional NSW region is the 25 - 34 group, making up 6.6% of the population.
Are there age groups with notable population variances?
Yes, certain age groups in the suburb of Shoal Bay show significant variance compared to the Regional NSW region. The most over-represented age groups are 85+ year-olds (10.9% vs 2.9%) and 75-84 year-olds (16.3% vs 8.2%). The most under-represented age groups are 0-4 year-olds (3.1% vs 5.6%) and 25-34 year-olds (6.6% vs 11.4%).
What is the percentage of children (0-14 years) in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The percentage of children aged 0-14 years in the suburb of Shoal Bay is 10.5%.
What is the percentage of older people (65+ years) in the suburb of Shoal Bay?
The percentage of people aged 65 and over in the suburb of Shoal Bay is 44.4%.

Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Shoal Bay (NSW)

Data currency Refreshed

9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.

Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.

The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section

Section Source & update cycle Currency
Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections
Population ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline.
Age profile ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate.
Development & approvals ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline
Property sales & rents Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures
Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026.
Infrastructure projects Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily May 2026 3 months ago all 2 projects tracked here
Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026.
Employment ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census.
Education ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Transport ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Services & amenities Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures
Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections
Income ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail.
Health ABS, ATO Annual 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current.
Housing ABS 5-yearly (Census) 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures
Households ABS 5-yearly (Census) 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures
Cultural diversity ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures

"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.

How the numbers are built

Population

The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 8 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (1,815 at the 2021 Census → 1,829 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.

Age profile

Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".

Property sales

Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.

Rents

Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.

Development & infrastructure

Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.

Employment & income

Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.

Education, transport & amenities

School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.

Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.

Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.

Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL13554). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.

Common questions about this page

How do Shoal Bay (NSW) suburb boundaries differ from Statistical Areas?
This page uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries (suburb-style geography). SAL represents commonly-known suburb names used in addresses, while Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census/statistical reporting. Even when sharing the same name, SAL and SA2 boundaries often cover different geographic areas with different populations.
Where does the data on this Shoal Bay (NSW) page come from?
AreaSearch compiles this page from official and industry sources — including ABS, Geoscience Australia, Valuer General, Provider directories, DEWR, JSA, State Transport Departments and ACARA — then aggregates them to the boundary shown and calculates the rankings, growth rates and benchmarks itself. Property sales come from the state valuation authority, rents from state rental bond lodgements, development applications from council and state planning portals, school data from ACARA, and public transport from state transport departments.
Is the Shoal Bay (NSW) data on this page just from the 2021 Census?
No. Most of this page is maintained well beyond the Census. Sourced entirely from current releases: development & approvals (Jun 2026), property sales & rents (Aug 2026), infrastructure projects (May 2026) and services & amenities (Jul 2026). Built on a Census baseline but carrying newer measures on top: population (to May 2026), age profile (to May 2026), employment (to Mar 2026), income (to FY 2023), education (to Aug 2026), transport (to Jul 2026) and health (to 2024). Population and age cohorts in particular are re-based to the latest ABS Estimated Resident Population rather than left at 2021 counts. Only housing, households and cultural diversity remain wholly Census-based, because no more current small-area dataset exists for those measures.

Nearby Areas