Stockton - Fullerton Cove

Stockton - Fullerton Cove lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Stockton-Fullerton Cove's population was 9,581 as of November 2025, reflecting an increase of 757 people since the 2021 Census. The population in 2021 was 8,824. This growth represents an 8.6% increase from the census figure. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 9,542 as of June 2024 and 71 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 314 persons per square kilometer. Stockton-Fullerton Cove's growth exceeded non-metro areas (5.1%) and its SA4 region.

Interstate migration contributed approximately 79.7% of overall population gains recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics predict exceptional growth, placing the area in the top 10% of Australia's regional areas. By 2041, the population is expected to grow by 5,175 persons, reflecting a total gain of 53.6%.

The level of residential development activity in Stockton - Fullerton Cove was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Stockton - Fullerton Cove has recorded approximately 51 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 255 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved so far in FY26. On average, over these five years, about 4.5 new residents arrived per dwelling constructed annually.

This has led to a significant lag between supply and demand, resulting in heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average value of new homes being built is around $551,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating an emphasis on quality construction. In terms of commercial development, there have been approximately $7.9 million in approvals this financial year, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Stockton - Fullerton Cove has similar development levels per person, maintaining market equilibrium consistent with surrounding areas. The new development consists of 83.0% detached dwellings and 17.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature while still attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 263 people per dwelling approval, Stockton - Fullerton Cove shows a developing market. Looking ahead to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by approximately 5,136 residents. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Stockton - Fullerton Cove has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 33 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Rifle Range, Fern Bay, Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, Bayway Village, and Fern Bay and North Stockton Strategy. The following details projects likely most relevant.

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The labour market in Stockton - Fullerton Cove demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Stockton - Fullerton Cove has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.8% as of June 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.2%.

The area has 4,337 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 0.9% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation at 50.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. Public administration & safety is particularly notable with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.7% of Stockton - Fullerton Cove's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW.

Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.2% while labour force increased by 2.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Stockton - Fullerton Cove's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The median taxpayer income in Stockton - Fullerton Cove SA2 was $57,005 and the average was $69,166 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for the financial year 2022. This is higher than national averages, which were $49,459 median and $62,998 average for Rest of NSW in the same period. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $64,193 median and $77,888 average. The 2021 Census data ranks Stockton - Fullerton Cove's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 30th and 32nd percentiles. Income brackets show that 27.2% of individuals (2,606 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is consistent with regional trends where 29.9% fall into the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in the area, with only 82.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 28th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Stockton - Fullerton Cove is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Stockton - Fullerton Cove, as per the latest Census evaluation, 89.1% of dwellings were houses while 10.9% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Stockton - Fullerton Cove was 46.5%, with mortgaged properties at 28.2% and rented ones at 25.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $430, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Stockton - Fullerton Cove's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Stockton - Fullerton Cove has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.0% of all households, including 25.1% couples with children, 32.8% couples without children, and 9.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households making up 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Stockton - Fullerton Cove aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Stockton's educational qualifications benchmark against Fullerton Cove trail regional standards show that 22.5% of residents aged 15 and over hold university degrees, compared to 32.2% in New South Wales (NSW). This difference suggests potential for educational development and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 5.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.4% of residents aged 15 and over holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 28.8%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Stockton-Fullerton Cove has 81 active public transport stops offering a mix of ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 39 individual routes, collectively providing 1,541 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 181 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 220 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 19 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Stockton - Fullerton Cove is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Stockton - Fullerton Cove faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 54% (~5,144 people) of the total population has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 11.9% of residents) and mental health issues (8.6%). In contrast, 60.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 64.9% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.2% (2,700 people), compared to the state average of 16.7%. Health outcomes among seniors generally align with those of the broader population.

Stockton - Fullerton Cove is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Stockton-Fullerton Cove has a lower cultural diversity, with 88.6% of its population born in Australia, 91.4% being citizens, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, accounting for 56.5% of the population, compared to 47.7% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.9%), Australian (29.5%), and Irish (9.2%).

Notably, Welsh (1.1%) and Scottish (8.6%) groups are slightly overrepresented, while Australian Aboriginal (3.4%) is nearly equal to the regional average of 3.2%.

Stockton - Fullerton Cove hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Stockton-Fullerton Cove's median age as of 2021 was 47 years, significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and substantially exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile showed that those aged 65-74 were particularly prominent, at 15.1%, while the 55-64 group was comparatively smaller at 10.7%. This concentration of those aged 65-74 was well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and the present, a rejuvenation is evident as the median age has fallen from 48 to 47 years. Key changes include the growth of the 15-24 age group from 8.6% to 10.8%, and the increase of the 35-44 cohort from 11.7% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 10.7%, and the 65-74 group has dropped from 17.3% to 15.1%. By 2041, Stockton-Fullerton Cove is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to expand considerably, increasing by 703 people (74%) from 954 to 1658.