Carrington (Newcastle - NSW)

Carrington has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Carrington (Newcastle - NSW) is estimated at around 2,345 people. This reflects a growth of 284 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,061 people. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 2,278 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 18 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,149 persons per square kilometer. Carrington's growth rate of 13.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW's 5.9%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 435 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 15.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Carrington when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Carrington has recorded around 7 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 39 homes. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. With an average of 8.3 people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five years (between FY-21 and FY-25), demand significantly outpaces supply, typically putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $484,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $1.6 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating Carrington's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Carrington records approximately 68% of the building activity per person and places among the 52nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity shows 11.0% standalone homes and 89.0% townhouses or apartments, focusing on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix (currently 62.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 319 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth.

Looking ahead, Carrington is expected to grow by 368 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Carrington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects that could impact this region. Key projects include Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, Hunter Park Precinct, Newcastle Future Transit Corridor, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Carrington shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrington has an educated workforce with significant representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% as of December 2025. This rate is 1.0% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Carrington is high at 72.4%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 29.9% of residents work from home. Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. The area has a notable concentration in professional & technical services, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.3% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Carrington's labour force increased by 1.4%, while employment declined by 0.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 1.6 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW saw an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Carrington had a median income among taxpayers of $53,885. The average income stood at $65,315. This was just below the national average and compared to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $58,659 (median) and $71,102 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, personal income ranks at the 71st percentile ($930 weekly), while household income sits at the 51st percentile. Distribution data shows 33.5% of the population (785 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, reflecting patterns seen regionally where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carrington displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carrington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 61.8% houses and 38.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrington was at 24.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (44.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, above Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent was $430, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Carrington's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrington features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.3% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.7%, with lone person households at 31.4% and group households comprising 9.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Carrington shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Educational attainment in Carrington is notably high, with 35.5% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications. This compares favourably to the broader benchmarks of 21.3% in Rest of NSW and 26.1% in SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 24.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 32.8% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas accounting for 10.8% and certificates for 22.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in tertiary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 4.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrington has 20 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by three routes that together offer 213 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 151 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily. Car is the primary mode at 85%, followed by walking at 6% and cycling at 4%. The area has an average vehicle ownership of 1.1 per dwelling, lower than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 29.9% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 30 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carrington is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrington faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across all age groups but are more pronounced among older cohorts. The area has approximately 53% private health cover, which is slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~1,237 people). Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.0% and 8.9% of residents respectively. About 67.0% of residents reported having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents have a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 14.3% of residents aged 65 and over (335 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, although they rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Carrington is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Carrington's population was found to have low cultural diversity, with 90.0% being Australian citizens and 89.1% born in Australia. English was the language spoken by 95.4% of residents at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 37.8%.

However, Judaism was not present among Carrington's population, compared to Regional NSW where it constituted 0.1%. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.0%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.9%). Notably, Russian ancestry was more prevalent in Carrington at 0.6%, compared to the regional average of 0.2%. Similarly, Welsh ancestry was higher at 0.7% versus 0.5%, and Macedonian ancestry was also present at 0.4%, matching the regional figure exactly.

Carrington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrington's median age is 35 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 years and slightly younger than Australia's median of 38 years. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented in Carrington at 23.7%, compared to the regional average of 19.6% and the national average of 14.4%. Conversely, the 75-84 year-olds are under-represented at 3.9%. The median age decreased by 1.1 years to 35 after the 2021 Census due to an increase in younger residents. Specifically, the 25-34 age group grew from 20.9% to 23.7%, while the 45-54 cohort declined from 11.8% to 9.9% and the 55-64 group dropped from 12.8% to 11.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Carrington's age profile. The 25-34 cohort is expected to grow by 29%, adding 161 residents to reach 717. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.