Carrington (Newcastle - NSW)

Carrington has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Carrington's population is estimated at around 2,266 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 205 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,061. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,263 residents following examination of ABS data released in June 2025 and 18 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,110 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb of Carrington (Newcastle - NSW) saw a growth rate of 9.9% since the 2021 Census, exceeding the Rest of NSW's 4.9%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in Carrington.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 341 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 14.9% in total over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Carrington when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Carrington has recorded around 7 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years. This totals an estimated 39 homes. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. Over these 5 years, an average of 6.9 people have moved to the area for each dwelling built, indicating demand outpacing supply which can put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $484,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $1.6 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Carrington records about 67% of the building activity per person and places among the 50th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity shows 11.0% standalone homes and 89.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a focus on higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix, which is currently 62.0% houses.

The location has approximately 321 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth. Looking ahead, Carrington is expected to grow by 338 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Carrington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 30 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, Hunter Park Precinct, Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence, and University of Newcastle City Campus Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Carrington shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrington's workforce is highly educated with significant representation in professional services. The unemployment rate stands at 4.7%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 1,313 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.7% compared to Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation is high at 71.1%, above Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census data shows that 29.9% of residents work from home. Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Notably, professional & technical services have a concentration index of 180 (1.8 times the regional average), while agriculture, forestry & fishing has an index of 30 (0.3% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%).

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparing working population to local population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Carrington's labour force increased by 0.9%, while employment declined by 0.7%, leading to a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Regional NSW saw an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrington's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Carrington suburb had median income among taxpayers at $53,885 with average level standing at $65,315. These figures are just below national averages of $54,792 and $71,541 respectively. Regional NSW levels stood at $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $59,446 (median) and $72,056 (average) as of March 2026. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census figures for 2021, personal income ranks at the 71st percentile ($930 weekly), while household income sits at the 51st percentile. Distribution data shows 33.5% of population (759 individuals) fall within $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carrington displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carrington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 61.8% houses and 38.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrington stood at 24.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 44.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Carrington was $430, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Carrington's mortgage repayments were above the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher than the national figure of $375.

Carrington features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 59.3 percent of all households, including 20.2 percent couples with children, 26.7 percent couples without children, and 12.0 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.7 percent, with lone person households at 31.4 percent and group households comprising 9.1 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Carrington shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Educational attainment in Carrington is notably high, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications compared to 21.3% in the rest of NSW and 26.1% in its SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 24.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 32.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 10.8% and certificates make up 22.0%. Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.4% in tertiary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 4.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrington has 20 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by three routes offering a total of 213 weekly passenger trips. The nearest stop is typically 151 meters from residents' locations. Most commuters travel outward, with cars being the primary mode at 85%. Walking and cycling account for 6% and 4% respectively. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

In 2021 Census data (possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions), 29.9% of residents worked from home. Service frequency averages 30 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Carrington is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrington faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Approximately 53% of Carrington residents have private health cover, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~1,195 people). The most common medical conditions are mental health issues affecting 11.0% and asthma impacting 8.9%. However, 67.0% of residents report no medical ailments compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents show a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions. Carrington has 15.0% of residents aged 65 and over (339 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Carrington is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Carrington's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with its population comprising 90.0% citizens, 89.1% born in Australia, and 95.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Carrington, making up 37.8% of its population. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Carrington with 0.0%, compared to Regional NSW's 0.1%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (30.0%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.9%). Other ethnic groups showed notable divergences: Russian at 0.6% (vs regional 0.2%), Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.5%), and Macedonian at 0.4%.

Carrington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrington's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Regional NSW average of 43 years and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 22.9% in Carrington, while the 75-84 year-olds are under-represented at 4.3%. This 25-34 concentration is well above the national average of 14.6%. Following the Census conducted on August 10, 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 20.9% to 22.9% of Carrington's population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 10.0%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 12.8% to 11.5%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Carrington's age profile will evolve significantly. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 29%, adding 148 residents to reach a total of 667. On the other hand, both the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.