Carrington (Newcastle - NSW)

Carrington has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the Carrington (Newcastle - NSW) statistical area (Lv2), as estimated by AreaSearch, is around 2,346 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 285 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,061. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,278 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,150 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Carrington (Newcastle - NSW) (SA2) experienced a growth rate of 13.8% since the 2021 Census, exceeding the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the Carrington (Newcastle - NSW) (SA2), although all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Carrington (Newcastle - NSW) (SA2) is expected to grow by an above median population growth rate of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with a projected increase of 426 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Carrington when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carrington recorded around 7 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 38 homes. So far in FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. On average, 8.7 people moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating demand outpacing supply. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $484,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year, $1.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Carrington records approximately 67% of building activity per person and ranks among the 52nd percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New building activity comprises 11.0% standalone homes and 89.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living suitable for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift contrasts with the current housing mix of 62.0% houses, reflecting reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands. Carrington has approximately 320 people per dwelling approval, suggesting room for growth.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by 348 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Carrington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence a region's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, Hunter Park Precinct, Newcastle Future Transit Corridor, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence. The following details projects expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Carrington shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrington has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 4.4% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 2.6%.

As of September 2025, 1,362 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.9%, higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 67.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Professional & technical services have notable concentration, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.3% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the year to September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.6%, labour force by 3.7%, resulting in unemployment rising by 1 percentage point. By comparison, Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Carrington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Carrington had a median income among taxpayers of $53,885 and an average income of $65,315. These figures are slightly below the national averages of $54,794 and $71,384 respectively. Compared to Rest of NSW, where the median income is $52,390 and the average is $65,215, Carrington's incomes are higher. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for median and average incomes in Carrington would be approximately $58,659 and $71,102 as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, personal income ranks at the 71st percentile ($930 weekly) and household income at the 51st percentile. Income distribution shows that 33.5% of Carrington's population falls within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, which is similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrington, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carrington displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carrington's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 61.8% houses and 38.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrington stood at 24.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 44.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. Median weekly rent in Carrington was $430, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $400. Nationally, Carrington's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $430 versus the national figure of $375.

Carrington features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.3% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.7%, with lone person households at 31.4% and group households comprising 9.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Carrington shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

In Carrington, residents aged 15 and above have notably higher educational attainment compared to broader areas. Specifically, 35.5% of residents hold university qualifications, surpassing the Rest of NSW's 21.3% and the SA4 region's 26.1%. This high level of educational attainment is composed primarily of bachelor degrees (24.9%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 32.8% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.8%) and certificates (22.0%).

Educational participation is notably high in Carrington, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in tertiary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 4.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis conducted in Carrington revealed operation of 20 active transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are serviced by three individual routes, collectively providing 213 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 151 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 30 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Carrington is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrington faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, particularly among older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~1,237 people), leading that of the average SA2 area but slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 56.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 11.0% and 8.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 67.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 64.9% across Rest of NSW. The area has 14.7% of residents aged 65 and over (344 people), which is lower than the 16.7% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population.

Carrington is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Carrington's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.0% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.1%), and speaking English only at home (95.4%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Carrington, comprising 37.8% of the population. Notably, Judaism's representation was overstated in Carrington at 0.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups based on parents' country of birth are English (30.0%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.9%). Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Russian is overrepresented in Carrington at 0.6% compared to the regional average of 0.2%, Welsh at 0.7% (vs 0.8%), and Macedonian at 0.4% (vs 0.8%).

Carrington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrington's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented in Carrington at 23.3%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 75-84 are under-represented at 4.0%. This concentration of the 25-34 age group is well above the national average of 14.5%. According to the Census conducted on 28 August 2021, the proportion of Carrington's population aged 25 to 34 has grown from 20.9% in the previous census to 23.3%. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 has declined from 11.8% to 10.3%, and the 55 to 64 age group has dropped from 12.8% to 11.3%. Demographic modeling suggests that Carrington's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow strongly, adding 162 residents to reach a total of 709, an increase of 30%. Meanwhile, both the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.