Carrington (Newcastle - NSW)

Carrington has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Carrington (Newcastle - NSW) is around 2,345. This figure reflects an increase of 284 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,061 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,278 in June 2024, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 18 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,149 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Carrington's population growth of 13.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW's growth rate of 5.9%, indicating its status as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including interstate migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 425 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 14.7% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Carrington when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Carrington shows approximately 7 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 38 homes. As of FY26, 1 approval has been recorded. The area has seen an average of 8.7 people moving to it annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating demand outpacing supply. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $484,000, targeting the premium market segment.

This financial year, $1.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Carrington records around 67% of building activity per person and ranks among the 52nd percentile nationally for areas assessed. New building activity consists of approximately 11.0% standalone homes and 89.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living and affordability. This shift is notable compared to the current housing mix of 62.0% houses. The area has about 320 people per dwelling approval, suggesting room for growth.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Carrington is projected to grow by 345 residents through to 2041. If development rates remain constant, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Carrington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects that could impact this region. Key projects include Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, Hunter Park Precinct, Newcastle Future Transit Corridor, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Carrington shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrington has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.3% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 2.8%. As of September 2025, 1,364 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 0.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation was at 72.6%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 29.9% of residents worked from home. Key industries included health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Professional & technical employment was particularly notable, at 1.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing had lower representation at 0.3%. Many residents commuted elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.8%, labour force by 3.8%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. Rest of NSW saw employment decline of 0.5% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Carrington's employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Carrington's employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Carrington had a median income among taxpayers of $53,885 and an average level of $65,315. These figures are close to the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $58,659 and average income $71,102 based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. In the 2021 Census, personal income ranked at the 71st percentile ($930 weekly) while household income was at the 51st percentile. Income distribution showed that 33.5% of Carrington's population (785 individuals) earned between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels where 29.9% fell within this range. Housing affordability pressures were severe with only 81.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Carrington displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Carrington, as per the latest Census evaluation, 61.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 38.2% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrington stood at 24.6%, with mortgaged properties at 30.6% and rented dwellings at 44.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Carrington was $430, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Carrington's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrington features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.3% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.7%, with lone person households at 31.4% and group households comprising 9.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Carrington shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Carrington's educational attainment is notably higher than broader benchmarks. Among residents aged 15+, 35.5% hold university qualifications compared to 21.3% in the Rest of NSW and 26.1% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 24.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 32.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 22.0%.

Educational participation is high in Carrington, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in tertiary education, 7.4% in primary education, and 4.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Carrington has 20 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by three routes offering a total of 213 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is high, with residents on average 151 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound. Car use dominates at 85%, followed by walking at 6% and cycling at 4%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.1, below the regional norm.

A significant 29.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages 30 trips daily across all routes, translating to about 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Carrington is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrington faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but more so among older cohorts. Private health cover is higher than average at approximately 53% of the total population (~1,237 people). The most common medical conditions are mental health issues and asthma, affecting 11.0% and 8.9% of residents respectively. 67.0% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age residents have a higher prevalence of chronic health conditions than average. The area has 14.4% of residents aged 65 and over (337 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

Carrington is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Carrington's population, as of the 2016 Census, was predominantly Australian-born with 90.0% being citizens and 89.1% born in Australia. English was spoken exclusively at home by 95.4% of residents. Christianity was the most prevalent religion, accounting for 37.8% of the population.

However, Judaism was not represented in Carrington's population, unlike the Rest of NSW where it constituted 0.1%. The top three ancestral groups were English (30.0%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.9%). Among other ethnic groups, Russian (0.6%) and Welsh (0.7%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. Macedonian representation was similar to the region at 0.4%.

Carrington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrington's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 23.8% locally, while the 75-84 year-olds are under-represented at 3.9%. This concentration of the 25-34 age group is well above the national average of 14.4%. Following the Census conducted on August 10, 2021, younger residents have shifted the median age down by 1.1 years to 35. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 20.9% to 23.8% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 9.9%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 12.8% to 11.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Carrington's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 27%, adding 151 residents to reach 710. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.