Carrington (Newcastle - NSW)

Carrington has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the population of Carrington (Newcastle - NSW) is estimated at around 2,171 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,061 people, marking a growth of 110 individuals or approximately 5.3%. The latest estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of the ABS ERP data release in June 2024, is 2,151 residents, with an additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this increase. This results in a population density ratio of about 1,064 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate exceeds the non-metro area average of 5.1%, indicating its status as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 37.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although interstate migration and natural growth also contributed positively to this trend.

AreaSearch utilises ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, for covered areas. For any uncovered SA2 areas, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022, using the base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest an above median population growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 415 persons to reach a total of approximately 2,586 people by 2041, reflecting an increase of about 23.6% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Carrington according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Carrington recorded approximately 9 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 46 homes. As of FY26, 0 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 7.2 people moving to the area for each dwelling built annually between FY21 and FY25. Demand significantly outpaces supply, typically exerting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $484,000. In FY26, $474,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Carrington records 19.0% less building activity per person and ranks among the 15th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. New building activity consists of 9.0% standalone homes and 91.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix of 62.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

The location has approximately 1119 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Looking ahead, Carrington is expected to grow by 512 residents through to 2041 according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Carrington has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 31 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Hunter Park Precinct, Newcastle Future Transit Corridor, Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence, and The Store Newcastle. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Carrington shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Carrington's workforce is highly educated with significant representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 4.1% as of June 2025, showing a 1.5% growth over the previous year according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

In June 2025, 1,329 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Carrington was 67.2%, surpassing Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Notably, professional & technical services had employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 0.3% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. While local employment opportunities exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.5%, labour force grew by 2.1%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points in Carrington. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Carrington's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, assuming constant population growth.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Carrington had a median income among taxpayers of $53,872. The average income stood at $65,296 in the same period. These figures are comparable to national averages and contrast with Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998 during the same year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Carrington's median income would be approximately $60,665 and average income around $73,530 as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, personal income ranks at the 71st percentile ($930 weekly) in Carrington, while household income sits at the 51st percentile. Distribution data shows that 33.5% of the population (727 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Carrington, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Carrington displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Carrington's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 61.8% houses and 38.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro NSW's 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Carrington stood at 24.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 44.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. Median weekly rent in Carrington was $430, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $400. Nationally, Carrington's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Carrington features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.3% of all households, including 20.2% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.7%, with lone person households at 31.4% and group households comprising 9.1%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Carrington shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Educational attainment in Carrington is notably high, with 35.5% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in Rest of NSW and 26.1% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 24.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 32.8% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 10.8% and certificates at 22.0%. Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.4% in tertiary, 7.4% in primary, and 4.6% pursuing secondary education.

Carrington Public School serves the local area, with an enrollment of 124 students as of a recent report. The school operates under typical Australian conditions (ICSEA: 990) and offers balanced educational opportunities focused exclusively on primary education. Secondary options are available in nearby areas due to limited local capacity (5.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.5).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 19 operational stops in Carrington, served by buses. These stops are covered by three routes, offering a total of 219 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 151 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 31 daily trips across all routes, translating to about 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Carrington is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Carrington faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups but to a higher degree among older cohorts. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 53% (~1,145 people), compared to the average SA2 area's 55.6%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.0% and 8.9% of residents respectively. 67.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 64.9% across Rest of NSW. The area has 14.8% (321 people) of residents aged 65 and over, lower than the 16.7% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to the challenges they present.

Carrington is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Carrington's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.0% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.1%), and speaking English only at home (95.4%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 37.8% of Carrington's population. Notably, Judaism was not represented in Carrington, compared to a regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.0%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.9%). Some ethnic groups showed notable variations: Russian was overrepresented at 0.6% in Carrington (regional average 0.2%), Welsh at 0.7% (regional average 0.8%), and Macedonian at 0.4% (regional average 0.8%).

Carrington's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Carrington's median age is 35 years, significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 23.3% locally, while the 75-84 year-olds are under-represented at 4.1%. This 25-34 concentration is well above the national average of 14.5%. Following the Census conducted on August 10, 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 20.9% to 23.3% of Carrington's population. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 11.8% to 10.3%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 12.8% to 11.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Carrington's age profile will evolve significantly. The 25-34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 39%, adding 199 residents to reach a total of 705. The 65-74 group displays more modest growth at 2%, adding only 4 residents.