Stockton (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Stockton reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Stockton's population is estimated at around 4,446 people. This reflects an increase of 400 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,046 people. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population being 4,429 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 31 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,208 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Stockton's growth rate of 9.9% since the 2021 Census exceeded the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.1%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on these projections, exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with the suburb expected to grow by 2,406 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 52.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Stockton among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Stockton has seen approximately 27 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 137 homes. This fiscal year, three approvals have been recorded so far. On average, each home built between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodates about 3.5 new residents annually, indicating a significant demand-supply imbalance that typically drives up prices and intensifies buyer competition. The average construction cost of new properties in Stockton is around $551,000, higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development.

This fiscal year has seen approximately $4.8 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the rest of NSW, Stockton has experienced slightly more development activity, with 21.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand.

The new development consists of 85.0% detached houses and 15.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's suburban nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. Stockton has around 113 people per approval, reflecting a developing area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Stockton is expected to grow by approximately 2,316 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Stockton has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 23 projects that may impact the area. Notable ones include Stockton Centre Repurposing, Dairy Farmers Towers, Pottery Lane Residential Development - Newcastle, and Newcastle Ocean Baths Upgrade. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Stockton has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Stockton has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.1%.

As of June 2025, 2,189 residents are employed, and the unemployment rate is similar to Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, while workforce participation is broadly similar at 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, professional & technical sectors have employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.9% versus the regional average of 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population.

Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, while labour force increased by 2.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer insight into potential future demand within Stockton. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Stockton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Stockton's median income at $59,700 and average income at $72,436. This is higher than Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998. By September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $67,228 (median) and $81,570 (average), based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. Census data places Stockton's household, family, and personal incomes between the 37th and 39th percentiles. The predominant income cohort in Stockton is 28.5%, representing 1,267 people with incomes between $1,500 - 2,999. This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 37th percentile. Stockton's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Stockton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Stockton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.5% houses and 17.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Non-Metro NSW's 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Stockton stood at 37.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.5% and rented ones at 30.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. Median weekly rent in Stockton was $370, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Stockton's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were lower than the national figure of $375.

Stockton features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 66.3% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households making up 30.5% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Stockton aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Stockton's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks; 23.1% of residents aged 15+ have university degrees, compared to NSW's 32.2%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common (15.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them; advanced diplomas account for 11.4%, while certificates make up 28.7%.

Educational participation is high at 26.1%; this includes primary education (9.3%), secondary education (7.1%), and tertiary education (4.1%). Stockton Public School and St Peter's Primary School serve 420 students collectively, operating under typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 1017). Both schools focus exclusively on primary education; secondary options are available in surrounding areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 9.4, below the regional average of 15.5, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Stockton has 40 active public transport stops, including both ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 34 different routes that together facilitate 1,516 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 152 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 216 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Stockton is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Stockton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data showing high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 56% (~2470 people) have private health cover, which is notably high. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.7%) and mental health issues (9.4%). Conversely, 62.4% claim to be free of medical ailments compared to 64.9% in Rest of NSW. Stockton has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.0% (978 people), compared to the 16.7% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors largely mirror those of the general population.

Stockton is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Stockton's population showed low cultural diversity, with 90.6% born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 53.4% of Stockton's population, compared to 47.7% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestral groups were English (33.1%), Australian (28.8%), and Irish (9.5%).

Notably, Welsh (0.9%) was overrepresented in Stockton compared to the regional average of 0.8%, as were Scottish (9.4% vs 8.4%) and Macedonian (0.2% vs 0.8%).

Stockton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Stockton's median age was 46 as of the 2021 Census, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's national norm of 38. The age group 45-54 had strong representation at 13.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's figure, while the 25-34 cohort was less prevalent at 10.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows a rejuvenation with the median age falling from 47 to 46 years. Specifically, the 15-24 age group grew from 10.3% to 12.5%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.2% to 12.3%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 16.1% to 13.9%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 13.9% to 11.8%. By 2041, Stockton is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition, with the 45-54 age cohort projected to expand considerably by 363 people (63%), from 577 to 941.