Mayfield East

Mayfield East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of Mayfield East is estimated at around 1,852 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 1,794 people, indicating a growth rate of approximately 3.2%. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 1,809 in June 2024, combined with validation of ten new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,987 persons per square kilometer, placing Mayfield East in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate since the census is within 2.7 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population gains during recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2-level data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former. By 2041, Mayfield East is projected to increase its population by just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally, adding approximately 262 persons over the 17-year period, reflecting an overall increase of around 11.8%.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mayfield East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mayfield East has seen limited development activity over the past five years, averaging one approval per year with a total of eight. This is typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is constrained by local demand and infrastructure capacity. The small sample size means annual growth and relativity statistics can be significantly influenced by individual projects.

Development levels in Mayfield East are notably lower than those in the Rest of NSW, and below national averages. New building activity consists of 50% detached dwellings and 50% medium to high-density housing, indicating a shift from the current housing mix which is predominantly houses at 83%. This change reflects reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The area has approximately 1838 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mayfield East is projected to add 219 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Future projections show Mayfield East adding 219 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mayfield East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No infrastructure changes in the area have been identified by AreaSearch. Key projects include Mayfield Concept Plan, Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence.

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Mayfield East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Mayfield East has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 5.2% as of December 2025. This rate is 1.3% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation is high at 74.9%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Data from Census responses indicates that 35.4% of residents work from home, with potential Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, education & training, and accommodation & food. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.5%, compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, labour force increased by 1.6% while employment declined by 0.1%, causing an unemployment rate rise of 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mayfield East's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Mayfield East has a median taxpayer income of $59,514 and an average income of $69,793, according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is slightly above the national average. In comparison, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest approximately $64,787 (median) and $75,977 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Mayfield East are around the 60th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 33.5% of the population, equating to 620 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which is similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 18.7% of income in Mayfield East, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 50th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mayfield East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Mayfield East, as per the latest Census, consisted of 83.1% houses and 16.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mayfield East was at 23.1%, with the rest being mortgaged (38.4%) or rented (38.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Mayfield East's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mayfield East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.0% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.0%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 7.7%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Mayfield East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Mayfield East significantly surpasses broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 34.4% of residents aged 15+ held university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the Rest of NSW and 26.1% in the SA4 region. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees were the most prevalent at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%).

Trade and technical skills featured prominently, with 32.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (23.0%). Educational participation was notably high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2016 Census. This included 9.1% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 3.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 12 active stops operating within Mayfield East. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 24 individual routes that facilitate 1,280 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 116 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 90%, while walking accounts for 4%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average.

A high 35.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages 182 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mayfield East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates substantial health challenges in Mayfield East. AreaSearch's assessment found notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover was approximately 55% (around 1,009 people), higher than Regional NSW's 51.9%. Mental health issues and asthma were the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 13.7% and 7.9% of residents respectively. About 63.6% reported no medical ailments, similar to Regional NSW's 63.3%. The working-age population faces significant health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Mayfield East has 13.8% (255 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings.

Mayfield East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mayfield East has a lower than average cultural diversity, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 93.5% being citizens, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mayfield East, comprising 36.7% of the population. Judaism, however, is overrepresented compared to Regional NSW, making up 0.5% of Mayfield East's population versus 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.8%), Australian (25.6%), and Irish (11.3%). Notably, Welsh (0.9%), Polish (1.0%), and Macedonian (0.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Mayfield East compared to Regional NSW figures of 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively.

Mayfield East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

At 35 years, Mayfield East's median age is significantly below the Regional NSW average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented at 23.8% locally, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.9%. This concentration in the 25-34 age group is well above the national average of 14.4%. Following the census conducted on 2021/08/03, younger residents have shifted the median age down by 1.3 years to 35. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 20.6% to 23.8%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 16.6% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 9.4%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 9.8% to 8.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Mayfield East's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041/07/01. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 22%, adding 96 residents to reach 537. Conversely, the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.