Mayfield East

Mayfield East has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Mayfield East is around 1,852. This figure reflects a growth of 58 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 1,794. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,809 in June 2024, based on the latest ABS ERP data release and validation of additional 10 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,987 persons per square kilometer, placing Mayfield East in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The suburb's 3.2% growth rate since the census is within 2.7 percentage points of the Rest of NSW's 5.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a 2021 base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Mayfield East is expected to grow by just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally, increasing by 270 persons to reach a total population of 2,122 by 2041, reflecting a 14.2% increase over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mayfield East according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mayfield East has seen limited development activity over the past five years, with an average of one approval per year, totalling seven. This low level is typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is constrained by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It's important to note that the small sample size can significantly influence annual growth and relativity statistics.

Compared to Rest of NSW and national averages, Mayfield East has substantially lower development levels. The new building activity shows an equal split between detached dwellings (50%) and medium to high-density housing (50%). This shift towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers, marking a significant change from the current housing mix of 83% houses. The location has approximately 1840 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mayfield East is projected to add 263 residents by 2041. However, at current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Future projections show Mayfield East adding 263 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mayfield East has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No local infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Mayfield Concept Plan, Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence.

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Mayfield East has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Mayfield East has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 2.8%. As of September 2025, 1,087 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is high at 76.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 35.4% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and accommodation & food. The area has a strong specialization in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.5% compared to 5.3% regionally. Employment opportunities locally appear limited as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force increased by 3.7%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Mayfield East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.2% over five years and 14.8% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Mayfield East had a median taxpayer income of $59,514 and an average income of $69,793 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is above the national average of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average) for Rest of NSW. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth suggest median income will be approximately $64,787 and average income around $75,977. Census 2021 data shows incomes in Mayfield East cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. In this suburb, 33.5% of individuals have incomes between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels at 29.9%. High housing costs consume 18.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 50th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Mayfield East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Mayfield East, as per the latest Census evaluation, 83.1% of dwellings were houses, with 16.9% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Mayfield East was 23.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (38.4%) or rented (38.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,000, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Mayfield East was recorded at $420, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Mayfield East's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mayfield East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.0% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 12.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 39.0%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 7.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Mayfield East exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment in Mayfield East is notably high, with 34.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data. This compares to 21.3% in the rest of New South Wales (NSW) and 26.1% in the Small Area (SA4) region. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 23.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 32.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 23.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.1% in tertiary education, 7.6% in primary education, and 3.6% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 12 active stops operating within Mayfield East. These stops service a mix of bus routes totalling 24. They facilitate 1,280 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 116 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commute outward. Car remains dominant at 90%, with 4% walking.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below regional average. High 35.4% work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages 182 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 106 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Mayfield East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mayfield East faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial in both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~1,009 people) have private health cover, compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW. Mental health issues affect 13.7% of residents, while asthma impacts 7.9%. Around 63.6% report no medical ailments, similar to the 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 13.5% (250 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings.

Mayfield East ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mayfield East had a below average cultural diversity, with 87.7% of its population born in Australia, 93.5% being citizens, and 92.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 36.7% of people in Mayfield East. Judaism was overrepresented, making up 0.5% compared to 0.1% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.8%), Australian (25.6%), and Irish (11.3%). Notably, Welsh (0.9%) and Polish (1.0%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5%, and Macedonian (0.7%) was also notably higher than the regional average of 0.4%.

Mayfield East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Mayfield East's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 cohort is notably over-represented in Mayfield East at 23.6%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.7%. This concentration of residents aged 25-34 is well above the national average of 14.4%. Following the Census conducted on 28 August 2021, younger residents have shifted the median age down by 1.2 years to 35. Specifically, the percentage of residents aged 25 to 34 has grown from 20.6% to 23.6%, while those aged 35 to 44 increased from 16.6% to 18.0%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 55 to 64 declined from 11.4% to 9.3%, and those aged 45 to 54 dropped from 9.8% to 8.2%. Demographic modeling suggests that Mayfield East's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow the strongest at 24%, adding 105 residents to reach a total of 543. Conversely, the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.