Newcastle

Newcastle lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Newcastle's population is estimated at around 4890 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1038 people (26.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3852 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4830, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 327 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4252 persons per square kilometer, placing Newcastle (SA2) in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Newcastle statistical area's growth of 26.9% since the 2021 Census exceeded the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where data is not available, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over this period, with Newcastle (SA2) expected to expand by 2184 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 32.3% in total population over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Newcastle among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Newcastle has seen approximately 170 new homes approved annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 853 homes were approved, with an additional 3 approved in FY-26. The average occupancy rate per dwelling built over these years was 0.7 people.

This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering buyers more choice while potentially supporting population growth above projections. The average construction cost value of new homes was $678,000, suggesting developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, there have been $100.3 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Newcastle has 678.0% more development activity per person. This is significantly above the national average, indicating strong developer interest in the area. New building activity shows a focus on higher-density living, with 2.0% detached dwellings and 98.0% attached dwellings.

This creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. Newcastle's population is projected to gain 1,580 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Newcastle has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 39 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include East End Newcastle, Dairy Farmers Towers, Pottery Lane Residential Development - Newcastle, and The Store Newcastle, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Newcastle maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Newcastle has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 3.7% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 3.2% over the past year.

This is based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 2,933 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.2% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Newcastle was 68.2%, significantly higher than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training.

Notably, the area shows strong specialization in professional & technical services, with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.5% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. As at the Census, there were 2.4 workers for every resident, indicating that Newcastle functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment in Newcastle increased by 3.2% while labour force increased by 3.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, the labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows that NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insight into potential future demand within Newcastle. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Newcastle's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.3% over five years and 14.9% over ten years. It is important to note that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that median assessed income in Newcastle is $64,975 and average income stands at $101,142. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $70,732 (median) and $110,103 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, individual earnings rank at the 93rd percentile nationally ($1,251 weekly), while household income ranks at the 62nd percentile. The earnings profile shows that 35.2% of locals (1,721 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to metropolitan regions where 29.9% occupy this range. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 58th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Newcastle features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Newcastle, as per the latest Census evaluation, 2.2% of dwellings were houses while 97.8% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's dwelling composition of 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Newcastle stood at 25.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 19.2% and rented ones at 55.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. The median weekly rent in Newcastle was recorded at $490, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Newcastle's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Newcastle features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 46.0% of all households, including 7.8% couples with children, 32.2% couples without children, and 5.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 54.0%, with lone person households at 47.3% and group households making up 6.7% of the total. The median household size is 1.7 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Newcastle demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Newcastle's educational attainment is notably higher than broader standards. Of residents aged 15+, 46.4% have university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the rest of NSW and 26.1% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 29.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.6%) and graduate diplomas (3.5%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 30.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.0% and certificates at 18.6%.

Furthermore, 22.8% of the population is actively pursuing formal education. This includes 11.8% in tertiary education, 3.4% in primary education, and 2.3% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Newcastle has 34 operational public transport stops. These include ferry, lightrail, and bus services. There are 15 different routes serving these stops, with a total of 4,560 weekly passenger trips.

Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 94 meters to the nearest stop. The service frequency is 651 trips daily across all routes, which amounts to approximately 134 weekly trips per individual stop.

Newcastle's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Newcastle's health data shows positive results, with common conditions seen equally across young and old residents. Private health cover is high at approximately 67% (3,266 people), compared to 56.7% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues affect 10.4%, arthritis impacts 8.2%, while 66.6% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 64.9%.

The area has 20.1% (982 people) aged 65 and over, higher than the 16.7% in Rest of NSW. Seniors' health outcomes are strong, outperforming general population metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Newcastle records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Newcastle has a higher than average cultural diversity, with 20.6% of its population born overseas and 12.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Newcastle, accounting for 41.2% of people. Notably, Judaism comprises 0.2% of Newcastle's population, higher than the Rest of NSW average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (30.6%), Australian (20.9%, lower than the regional average of 27.5%), and Irish (11.3%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Scottish is overrepresented at 10.2% in Newcastle compared to 8.4% regionally, Welsh stands at 0.8% (matching the regional figure), and Hungarian is present at 0.4%, higher than the regional average of 0.2%.

Newcastle's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Newcastle is 40 years, which is slightly lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 but higher than the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 24.3% of Newcastle's population, compared to the Rest of NSW average of around 19%. This is a notable increase from the 2021 Census figure of 23.0%. Meanwhile, the 5-14 age group constitutes only 2.2%, down from 3.7% in the 2021 Census. The 45-54 age group has also decreased, from 12.4% to 11.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate that Newcastle's 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 527 people, reaching a total of 1,716, an increase of 44% from the current figure of 1,188.