Mayfield - Warabrook
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mayfield - Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

AreaSearch's analysis indicates that Mayfield-Warabrook's population is approximately 16,123 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 597 people, corresponding to a growth rate of 3.8%, since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 15,526. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,963 in June 2024 and an additional 298 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,138 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mayfield-Warabrook's growth rate of 3.8% since the census places it within 1.3 percentage points of the non-metro area (5.1%), suggesting competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population growth in the area during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas, with the area expected to expand by 2,117 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, resulting in a total gain of 12.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mayfield - Warabrook according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mayfield-Warabrook has approved around 43 residential properties annually. Between FY21 and FY25, it granted approval for 218 homes, with an additional 14 approved in FY26 so far. On average, over the past five financial years, this area has seen approximately 1.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed. However, recent data shows an increase to 6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

The average construction cost value of new homes in Mayfield-Warabrook is $243,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. This year alone, commercial development approvals have reached $84.5 million, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Mayfield-Warabrook has about half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks in the 24th percentile nationally for areas assessed, suggesting limited housing choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower development activity may reflect market maturity or potential constraints. New developments consist of 45% detached dwellings and 55% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the current housing mix (76% houses) addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, providing more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

The location has approximately 673 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Future projections estimate Mayfield-Warabrook will add around 1,956 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mayfield - Warabrook has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects potentially affecting this region. Notable ones include Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Mayfield Concept Plan, Subdivision at 110 Elizabeth Street, Tighes Hill, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Mayfield - Warabrook has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Mayfield-Warabrook has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.9% as of June 2024, with estimated employment growth of 1.8%.

As of June 2025, 8,834 residents were employed, marking a 1.3% increase from the Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was high at 62.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area had a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, accounting for only 0.5% of Mayfield-Warabrook's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident indicated a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8%, and the labour force grew by 2.5%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW experienced a slight decline in employment (-0.1%), with labour force growth of 0.3% and an unemployment rate increase of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mayfield-Warabrook's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, though these estimates are illustrative and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Mayfield - Warabrook was $53,451 and average income was $62,683. This is below the national average. Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $60,191 and average income $70,587, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census ranked Mayfield - Warabrook incomes modestly, between the 42nd and 51st percentiles for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows 33.4% of residents earn $1,500 - $2,999 annually, with broader regional trends at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe; only 81.2% of income remains after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Mayfield - Warabrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Mayfield-Warabrook, as per the latest Census, 75.7% of dwellings were houses while 24.3% comprised semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This differs from Non-Metro NSW's figures of 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mayfield-Warabrook stood at 25.4%, with mortgaged properties at 34.2% and rented ones at 40.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. Weekly rent in the area averaged $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Mayfield-Warabrook's median monthly mortgage repayment was higher at $1,883 and weekly rent exceeded the national figure of $375.

Mayfield - Warabrook features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.8 percent of all households, including 22.0 percent couples with children, 24.3 percent couples without children, and 11.9 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.2 percent, with lone person households at 32.7 percent and group households comprising 7.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mayfield - Warabrook aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate of 29.3% among residents aged 15+ exceeds the Rest of NSW average of 21.3%, as well as the SA4 region average of 26.1%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 20.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 24.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.1% in tertiary, 7.7% in primary, and 5.2% in secondary education. Six schools operate within Mayfield - Warabrook, educating approximately 1,777 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1028) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents stand at 11.0, below the regional average of 15.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates that there are currently 153 active public transport stops operating within the Mayfield-Warabrook area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with a total of 69 individual routes providing passenger trips. Each week, these routes collectively facilitate 5,584 passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as excellent, with residents typically residing approximately 126 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to 797 trips per day, equating to roughly 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mayfield - Warabrook is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Mayfield - Warabrook affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% (8,238 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area of 55.6%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (13.7%) and asthma (8.8%), while 60.8% report no medical ailments compared to 64.9% in Rest of NSW. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 15.4% (2,486 people), lower than the 16.7% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors broadly align with the general population's health profile.

Mayfield - Warabrook ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mayfield-Warabrook was found to be below average in cultural diversity, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 90.2% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion is Christianity, comprising 45.2% of the population. Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to 0.1% across Rest of NSW.

The top ancestry groups are English (29.1%), Australian (27.0%), and Irish (9.5%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) is equally represented regionally, Macedonian (0.6%) is slightly underrepresented (vs 0.8%), and Samoan (0.3%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

Mayfield - Warabrook's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Mayfield-Warabrook as of May was 36 years, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years, and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group made up 21.8% of the population in Mayfield-Warabrook compared to Rest of NSW, while the 65-74 cohort was less prevalent at 8.7%. This concentration of young adults aged 25-34 is well above the national average of 14.5%. According to the post-2021 Census data, Mayfield-Warabrook has become younger, with its median age dropping by 1 year to 36 from 37 years between censuses. Specifically, the 25-34 age group grew from 19.3% to 21.8%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.1% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 11.4% to 10.0%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, Mayfield-Warabrook is projected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 25-34 age cohort is expected to grow significantly by 924 people (26%), increasing from 3,506 to 4,431. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.