Mayfield - Warabrook
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mayfield - Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Aug 2025, Mayfield - Warabrook's population is approximately 16,116, reflecting a 3.8% increase since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 15,526. This growth is inferred from an estimated resident population of 15,965 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 2,137 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Since the census, Mayfield - Warabrook's growth rate of 3.8% is close to that of non-metro areas (4.8%). Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for uncovered areas released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Future projections anticipate a population increase close to the median of national non-metropolitan areas by 2041, with an expected expansion of 2,117 persons and a total gain of 12.2%.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mayfield - Warabrook according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mayfield-Warabrook has approximately 50 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data from the ABS shows around 250 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY-20 to FY-25, with six more approved in FY-26 so far. On average, about 1.9 new residents have arrived per new home each year over these five years. However, this has increased to 6.0 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints. The average construction value of development projects is around $400,000, in line with regional patterns.

This financial year has seen $84.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Mayfield-Warabrook has significantly less development activity, at 52.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes, with activity also under the national average, suggesting an established area and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium to high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This is a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is 76.0% houses. The location has approximately 673 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Population forecasts predict Mayfield-Warabrook will gain around 1,963 residents by 2041.

Building activity appears to be keeping pace with growth projections, but buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Mayfield - Warabrook has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Mayfield Concept Plan, Subdivision at 110 Elizabeth Street, Tighes Hill, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Mayfield - Warabrook has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Mayfield-Warrabrook has an educated workforce with a 4.9% unemployment rate as of June 2025, showing 1.8% employment growth over the past year. It has 8,834 residents in work, with a 1.3% higher unemployment rate compared to Rest of NSW's 3.7%.

Workforce participation is high at 62.7%, above Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, but has a low representation in agriculture, forestry & fishing at 0.5% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating good local employment opportunities.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8% while the labour force grew by 2.5%, raising unemployment by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mayfield-Warrabrook's industry mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Mayfield - Warabrook had a median income of $53,451 and an average income of $62,683. This is below the national averages of $57,079 (median) and $67,081 (average). In comparison, Rest of NSW had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, the estimated current incomes are approximately $59,117 (median) and $69,327 (average) as of March 2025. The 2021 Census data indicates that Mayfield - Warabrook's household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 42nd and 51st percentiles. Income distribution shows that 33.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per year, consistent with the broader regional trend of 29.9%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Mayfield - Warabrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Mayfield-Warrabrook, as per the latest Census, houses accounted for 75.7% of dwellings, with the remaining 24.3% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mayfield-Warrabrook stood at 25.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.2% and rented ones at 40.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. The median weekly rent was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Mayfield-Warrabrook's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Mayfield - Warabrook features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.8% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 32.7% and group households making up 7.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mayfield - Warabrook aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.3%, higher than the Rest of NSW average of 21.3% and the SA4 region average of 26.1%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 20.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (24.4%).

Educational participation is high at 27.7%, with 8.1% in tertiary education, 7.7% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing secondary education. Six schools operate within Mayfield - Warabrook, educating approximately 1,777 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1028) with balanced educational opportunities. There are three primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents is 11.0, lower than the regional average of 15.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that Mayfield-Warabrook has 153 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 69 different routes, which together facilitate 5,584 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 126 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are approximately 797 daily trips, equating to about 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mayfield - Warabrook is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Mayfield-Warabrook, where several health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Approximately 51% (~8,235 people) have private health cover, compared to the Rest of NSW average of 55.6%.

The most prevalent medical issues are mental health problems (13.7%) and asthma (8.8%), while 60.8% report no medical ailments, compared to 64.9% in the Rest of NSW. The area has 15.4% residents aged 65 and over (2,485 people), lower than the Rest of NSW average of 16.7%. Seniors' health outcomes present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

Mayfield - Warabrook ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mayfield-Warabrook was found to have low cultural diversity, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 90.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 45.2% of Mayfield-Warabrook's population. Notably, Judaism is slightly overrepresented compared to the rest of NSW, making up 0.1% versus 0.1%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (29.1%), Australian (27.0%), and Irish (9.5%). Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Welsh (0.8% vs regional 0.8%), Macedonian (0.6% vs regional 0.8%), and Samoan (0.3% vs regional 0.1%) are relatively overrepresented in Mayfield-Warabrook.

Mayfield - Warabrook's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Mayfield-Warrabrook as of May 2021 is 36 years, significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 and somewhat younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group represents 21.8% of the population in Mayfield-Warrabrook, compared to 17.9% in Rest of NSW and 14.5% nationally. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort makes up 8.7% of the population, lower than Rest of NSW's 9.3%. Post-2021 Census data shows that Mayfield-Warrabrook has become younger, with median age dropping from 37 to 36 between 2016 and 2021. Specifically, the 25-34 age group grew from 19.3% to 21.8%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.1% to 15.4%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort declined from 11.4% to 10.0%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, Mayfield-Warrabrook is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to grow by 925 people (26%), from 3,505 to 4,431. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.