Mayfield - Warabrook

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mayfield - Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mayfield-Warabrook's population is 16,303 as of February 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 777 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,526. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,962 in June 2024 and an additional 302 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,162 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mayfield-Warabrook's growth rate of 5.0% since the Census positions it close to the Rest of NSW (5.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas, with Mayfield-Warabrook expected to expand by 2,117 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 10.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mayfield - Warabrook according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mayfield-Warabrook has granted around 43 residential property approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, it approved a total of 218 homes, with an additional 24 approved in FY-26. Over the past five financial years, each dwelling constructed accommodated an average of 1.9 new residents per year. However, this figure has increased to 6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $243,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers. This financial year alone, commercial development approvals have reached $84.5 million, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Mayfield-Warabrook has approximately half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 23rd percentile nationally in terms of housing choices for buyers. This lower level of development activity reflects market maturity and potential constraints on future growth. The current residential development mix consists of 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift towards higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (76.0%). The location has an established market with approximately 673 people per dwelling approval. Future projections estimate that Mayfield-Warabrook will add around 1,776 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with these growth projections, though increased competition among buyers is expected as the population grows.

Mayfield - Warabrook has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 22 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Mayfield Concept Plan, Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Subdivision at 110 Elizabeth Street, Tighes Hill, and Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Mayfield - Warabrook has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Mayfield-Warabrook has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.3% as of September 2024, with an estimated employment growth of 2.3% over the past year. As of September 2025, 8780 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation was high at 69.2%, above Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census data, 28.8% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area had a specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, but agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented at 0.5% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

There were 0.7 workers per resident as of the Census, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, labour force increased by 3.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 1 percentage point. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mayfield-Warabrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7% over five years and 14.5% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Mayfield - Warabrook SA2 is $58,225, below the national average of $66,144. Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $63,384 (median) and $72,004 (average). The 2021 Census ranks Mayfield - Warabrook's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 41st and 51st percentiles. Income distribution shows 33.4% of individuals earning between $1,500 and $2,999 annually (5,445 individuals). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Mayfield - Warabrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Mayfield-Warrabrook, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 75.7% houses and 24.3% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mayfield-Warrabrook was 25.4%, with the remainder being mortgaged (34.2%) or rented (40.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Mayfield-Warrabrook's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,883, while rents were exceeding the national figure of $375.

Mayfield - Warabrook features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.8% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 32.7% and group households comprising 7.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mayfield - Warabrook aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.3%, higher than the Rest of NSW average of 21.3% and the SA4 region's rate of 26.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.0% and certificates at 24.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.1% in tertiary education, 7.7% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Mayfield-Warabrook indicates that there are 158 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops consist of a mix of train and bus services. A total of 69 individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 5,406 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 121 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 90%.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 28.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 772 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Mayfield - Warabrook is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch's assessment reveals critical health challenges across Mayfield-Warabrook.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence indicate significant impacts on both younger and older age cohorts due to a range of health conditions. The area has approximately 52% private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area (~8,493 people). Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 13.7% and 8.8% of residents respectively. However, 60.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,507 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Mayfield - Warabrook ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mayfield-Warrabrook was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 90.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mayfield-Warrabrook, comprising 45.2% of people. However, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to the region's 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.1%), Australian (27.0%), and Irish (9.5%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Macedonian (0.6%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Mayfield-Warrabrook compared to the regional averages of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Samoan ethnicity is also notably higher at 0.3%.

Mayfield - Warabrook's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Mayfield - Warabrook as of May was 36 years, significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 years, and somewhat younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group had a strong representation at 22.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's figure, while the 65-74 cohort was less prevalent at 8.8%. This concentration in the 25-34 age group was well above the national average of 14.4%. Post-2021 Census data showed that the area had become younger, with median age dropping from 37 years to 36 years between two points in time. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 19.3% to 22.3%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.1% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 11.4% to 9.7%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.3% to 9.9%. By 2041, Mayfield - Warabrook is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 798 people (22%) from 3,632 to 4,431. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.