Mayfield - Warabrook

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mayfield - Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mayfield-Warabrook's population is 16,123 as of Nov 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 597 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,526. The change was inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 15,963 in June 2024 and an additional 298 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,138 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 3.8% since the Census positions it close to non-metro areas' average growth of 5.1%. Overseas migration primarily drove this population increase.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where data is unavailable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future projections indicate a population increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas, expecting an expansion of 2,117 persons by 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 12.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mayfield - Warabrook according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mayfield-Warabrook recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 218 homes were approved. As of FY26, 14 homes have been approved so far. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years was approximately 1.9.

However, this figure has increased to 6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $400,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. In FY26, $84.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Mayfield-Warabrook has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person. Nationally, it places among the 23rd percentile of areas assessed, indicating more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. New development in Mayfield-Warabrook consists of approximately 45% detached dwellings and 55% medium to high-density housing.

This shift from the current housing mix (76% houses) reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 673 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections estimate Mayfield-Warabrook will add around 1,956 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mayfield - Warabrook has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Mayfield Concept Plan, Subdivision at 110 Elizabeth Street, Tighes Hill, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Mayfield - Warabrook has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Mayfield-Warrabrook has an educated workforce with high representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8%.

As of June 2025, 8,834 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% above Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and a workforce participation rate of 62.7%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.5% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio of 0.7 indicates above-average local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8%, labour force grew by 2.5%, leading to a 0.7 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-wide, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) to Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mayfield-Warrabrook's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest AreaSearch postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Mayfield - Warabrook SA2 had an income median of $53,451 and an average income of $62,683. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Mayfield - Warabrook SA2 would be approximately $60,191 (median) and $70,587 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Mayfield - Warabrook SA2 rank modestly, between the 41st and 51st percentiles. Income distribution shows that 33.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, which is consistent with broader trends across the region at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mayfield - Warabrook SA2, with only 81.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Mayfield - Warabrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Mayfield - Warabrook, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.7% houses and 24.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mayfield - Warabrook was at 25.4%, with the remainder being mortgaged (34.2%) or rented (40.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. The median weekly rent was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Mayfield - Warabrook's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,883, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Mayfield - Warabrook features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.8% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 32.7% and group households comprising 7.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mayfield - Warabrook aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 29.3%, higher than the Rest of NSW average of 21.3% and the SA4 region's 26.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.4% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (24.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.1% in tertiary education, 7.7% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the area of Mayfield-Warabrook shows that there are currently 153 active transport stops operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. A total of 69 individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 5,584 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 126 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 797 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mayfield - Warabrook is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Mayfield-Warabrook faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data from various sources. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 51%, which is slightly lower than the average SA2 area rate of 55.6%.

This corresponds to around 8,238 people in Mayfield-Warabrook. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 13.7% and 8.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 60.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 64.9% across Rest of NSW. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 15.4% (2,486 people), than the 16.7% recorded in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors in Mayfield-Warabrook generally align with those of the broader population.

Mayfield - Warabrook ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mayfield-Warabrook was found to have low cultural diversity, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 90.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mayfield-Warabrook, comprising 45.2% of its population. Judaism, however, is overrepresented compared to the rest of NSW, with 0.1% of Mayfield-Warabrook's population identifying as such.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.1%), Australian (27.0%), and Irish (9.5%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Macedonian (0.6%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Mayfield-Warabrook compared to regional averages, while Samoan ethnicity is underrepresented at 0.3%.

Mayfield - Warabrook's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Mayfield - Warabrook as of May was 36 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years, and somewhat younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group had a strong representation at 21.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's percentage. Meanwhile, the 65-74 cohort was less prevalent at 8.7%. This concentration in the 25-34 age group is well above the national average of 14.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the area has become younger, with the median age dropping by 1 year to 36 from 37 years between censuses. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 19.3% to 21.8%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.1% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 11.4% to 10.0%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, Mayfield - Warabrook is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 924 people (26%) from 3,506 to 4,431. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.