Mayfield - Warabrook
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mayfield - Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mayfield-Warabrook's population is around 16,116 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 590 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 15,526 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,965 from ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 294 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,137 persons per square kilometer. Mayfield-Warabrook's growth rate of 3.8% since census positions it within 1.0 percentage points of the non-metro area (4.8%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas, with the area expected to expand by 2,117 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, recording a gain of 12.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mayfield - Warabrook according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mayfield-Warabrook recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 218 homes approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, and 6 so far in FY-26. On average, around 1.9 new residents arrived per new home annually over the past five financial years. However, recent data shows this has increased to 6 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential supply constraints. Development projects averaged $400,000 in construction value, aligning with regional patterns.

This financial year, $84.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Mayfield-Warabrook has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 24th percentile nationally, suggesting relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. New development consists of 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix, which is currently 76.0% houses. The location has approximately 673 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. Population forecasts project Mayfield-Warabrook to gain 1,963 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mayfield - Warabrook has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 19 projects that could impact the area significantly due to their influence on local infrastructure. Notable projects include Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Mayfield Concept Plan, Subdivision at 110 Elizabeth Street in Tighes Hill, and Hunter Net Zero Manufacturing Centre of Excellence. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Mayfield - Warabrook has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Mayfield-Warabrook has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate as of June 2025 was 4.9%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8% over the past year.

There were 8,834 residents employed at this time, with an unemployment rate of 1.3% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Mayfield-Warabrook was 62.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care and social assistance, education and training, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in health care and social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry, and fishing is under-represented, with only 0.5% of Mayfield-Warabrook's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. The ratio of 0.7 workers per resident indicates a higher level of local employment opportunities than usual. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 1.8%, while the labour force grew by 2.5%. This caused the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.1% during the same period, with a labour force growth of 0.3% and an unemployment rate increase of 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows that NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This is favourable compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5% but lags behind the national employment growth of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May 2025 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mayfield-Warabrook's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Mayfield - Warabrook was $53,451 and average income was $62,683. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% by March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $59,117 (median) and $69,327 (average). The 2021 Census ranks household, family, and personal incomes in Mayfield - Warabrook modestly, between the 42nd and 51st percentiles. Income distribution shows that 33.4% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with broader trends across the region at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 39th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Mayfield - Warabrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Mayfield-Warrabrook, as per the latest Census, comprised 75.7% houses and 24.3% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mayfield-Warrabrook was at 25.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.2% and rented dwellings at 40.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,883, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. The median weekly rent figure was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Mayfield-Warrabrook's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,883 and rents exceeded the national average of $375.

Mayfield - Warabrook features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 59.8% of all households, including 22.0% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 32.7% and group households at 7.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mayfield - Warabrook aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate of 29.3% among residents aged 15+ exceeds the Rest of NSW average of 21.3% and the SA4 region average of 26.1%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (24.4%).

Educational participation is high at 27.7%, with 8.1% in tertiary education, 7.7% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing secondary education. There are six schools operating within Mayfield - Warabrook, educating approximately 1,777 students. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1028) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes three primary, one secondary, and two K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents stand at 11.0, below the regional average of 15.6, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that Mayfield-Warabrook has 153 active public transport stops. These are served by 69 different routes, offering a total of 5,584 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 126 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 797 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mayfield - Warabrook is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Mayfield-Warrabrook faces substantial health challenges, as revealed by health data. A variety of conditions significantly impact both younger and older age groups.

The area has approximately 51% private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area's 55.6%. This translates to around 8,235 people in Mayfield-Warrabrook having private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (affecting 13.7%) and asthma (8.8%). Conversely, 60.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Rest of NSW's 64.9%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.4%, or approximately 2,485 people, compared to Rest of NSW's 16.7%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, largely mirroring the general population's health profile in the region.

Mayfield - Warabrook ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mayfield-Warabrook was found to be below average in cultural diversity, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia and 90.0% being citizens. English is the language spoken at home by 90.2% of residents. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mayfield-Warabrook, comprising 45.2% of the population.

However, Judaism, which makes up only 0.1% of the population, is proportionally higher compared to the rest of NSW. The top three ancestral groups based on country of birth of parents are English at 29.1%, Australian at 27.0%, and Irish at 9.5%. Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Macedonian (0.6%) are overrepresented in Mayfield-Warabrook compared to regional averages, while Samoan (0.3%) shows a smaller but notable increase from the regional average of 0.1%.

Mayfield - Warabrook's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Mayfield - Warabrook in May was 36 years, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43, and somewhat younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group made up 21.8% of the population, compared to Rest of NSW's percentage, while the 65-74 cohort comprised 8.7%, both figures being notably different from national statistics. Post-2021 Census data indicated that Mayfield - Warabrook had become younger, with median age dropping from 37 to 36 years between censuses. Specifically, the 25-34 age group grew from 19.3% to 21.8%, and the 35-44 cohort increased from 14.1% to 15.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 11.4% to 10.0%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 11.3% to 10.1%. By 2041, Mayfield - Warabrook's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 925 people (26%) from 3,505 to 4,431, while population declines are forecast for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.