Mayfield - Warabrook

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mayfield - Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mayfield - Warabrook's population is around 16,303 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 777 people (5.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,526 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,962 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 302 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,162 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mayfield - Warabrook's 5.0% growth since the census positions it within 0.9 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of national non-metropolitan areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 2,117 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 10.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mayfield - Warabrook according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mayfield - Warabrook has recorded around 43 residential properties granted approval annually, with 218 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 24 so far in FY-26. Given an average of 1.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply and demand appear well-balanced, creating stable market conditions, though recent data shows this has intensified to 6 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply. New homes are being built at an average construction cost of $243,000‚—below regional norms‚—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $84.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Mayfield - Warabrook has around half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places among the 23rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New development consists of 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 76.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 673 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Future projections show Mayfield - Warabrook adding 1,776 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Mayfield - Warabrook has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 22 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Mayfield Concept Plan, Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Subdivision at 110 Elizabeth Street, Tighes Hill, and the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Mayfield - Warabrook are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Mayfield - Warabrook possesses a well-educated workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 6.1%. As of December 2025, 8,643 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.1% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (68.7% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 28.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.5% of Mayfield - Warabrook's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. The ratio of 0.7 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force increased by 1.4% while employment declined by 0.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.9 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Mayfield - Warabrook. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mayfield - Warabrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Mayfield - Warabrook SA2 is just below the national average, with the median assessed at $58,225 while the average income stands at $66,144. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $63,384 (median) and $72,004 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Mayfield - Warabrook, between the 41st and 51st percentiles. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 33.4% of the community (5,445 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the region showing 29.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 39th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Mayfield - Warabrook is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Mayfield - Warabrook, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 75.7% houses and 24.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Mayfield - Warabrook lagged that of Regional NSW, at 25.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.2%) or rented (40.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Regional NSW average at $1,883, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $380, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Mayfield - Warabrook's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Mayfield - Warabrook features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 59.8% of all households, comprising 22.0% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 40.2%, with lone person households at 32.7% and group households comprising 7.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Mayfield - Warabrook aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's educational profile stands out regionally, with university qualification rates (29.3% of residents aged 15+) exceeding the Rest of NSW average of 21.3% and that of the SA4 region (26.1%), reflecting the community's emphasis on higher education. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 34.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.0%) and certificates (24.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.1% in tertiary education, 7.7% in primary education, and 5.2% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 158 active transport stops operating within Mayfield - Warabrook, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 69 individual routes, collectively providing 5,406 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 121 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 90%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A high 28.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 772 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 34 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Mayfield - Warabrook is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Mayfield - Warabrook, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags that of the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~8,493 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 13.7% and 8.8% of residents, respectively, while 60.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,507 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Mayfield - Warabrook ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mayfield - Warabrook was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 90.0% being citizens, and 90.2% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Mayfield - Warabrook is Christianity, which makes up 45.2% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Judaism, which comprises 0.1% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Mayfield - Warabrook are English, comprising 29.1% of the population, Australian, comprising 27.0% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 0.8% of Mayfield - Warabrook (vs 0.5% regionally), Macedonian at 0.6% (vs 0.4%) and Samoan at 0.3% (vs 0.1%).

Mayfield - Warabrook's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The 36-year median age in Mayfield - Warabrook is significantly below Regional NSW's average of 43 and similarly younger than Australia's 38 years. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 22.3% compared to Regional NSW, whereas the 65 - 74 cohort is less prevalent at 8.8%. This 25 - 34 concentration is well above the national 14.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows the area has become younger, with the median age dropping 1.2 years to 36 from 37. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 19.3% to 22.3% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 14.1% to 15.7%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 9.7% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.3% to 9.9%. By 2041, Mayfield - Warabrook is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 798 people (22%) from 3,632 to 4,431. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 cohorts.