Warabrook

An assessment of population growth drivers in Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Warabrook's population is estimated to be around 1,989 people. This figure reflects an increase from the 2021 Census count of 1,982 people, representing a rise of 7 individuals (0.4%). The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 1,977, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,326 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth for Warabrook during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Warabrook is expected to grow by approximately 218 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 11.9% over the 17-year period. This growth trend aligns with a population increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Warabrook according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Warabrook has seen minimal construction activity over the past five years, with fewer than two new dwellings approved annually. This low level of development is typical in rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It should be noted that due to the small sample size, individual development projects can significantly influence annual growth and relativity statistics.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Warabrook has notably lower development activity. The development pattern in Warabrook is also well below national averages.

Warabrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three major projects that could impact this region. Notable projects are Mayfield Concept Plan, Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Callaghan Campus Heart, and Boatman Creek Flood Improvements. Relevant details about these projects follow.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Warabrook maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Warabrook has an educated workforce with 3.2% unemployment as of June 2025. This rate is 0.5% lower than Rest of NSW's 3.7%.

Workforce participation is similar to the rest of NSW at 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance is notably concentrated with levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.3% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.2%, labour force by 2.6%, raising unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1%, labour force growth by 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warabrook's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch aggregated latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022. Warabrook had a median income among taxpayers of $49,232 and an average income of $57,736. These figures were lower than the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income in Warabrook would be approximately $55,440 and average income around $65,017. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Warabrook ranked modestly between the 38th and 43rd percentiles. Income analysis showed that 33.8% of Warabrook's population (672 individuals) had incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, consistent with regional trends where 29.9% fell within the same category. After housing costs, 85.2% of income remained for other expenses. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Warabrook displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warabrook's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.5% houses and 30.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warabrook stood at 38.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.2% and rented ones at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,790, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. Median weekly rent in Warabrook was $375, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Warabrook's median monthly mortgage repayment is below the Australian average of $1,863, while its median weekly rent figure is comparable at $375.

Warabrook features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.8% of all households, including 26.4% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.2%, with lone person households making up 27.0% and group households comprising 4.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, aligning with the Rest of NSW average.

Warabrook shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable within its region, with university qualification rates at 27.6% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of NSW average of 21.3%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 32.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas comprise 11.1% and certificates make up 21.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.4% in tertiary education, 6.8% in primary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education. Educational facilities appear to be located outside the immediate catchment boundaries, requiring families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warabrook has 17 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 different routes that collectively facilitate 4,236 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 605 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 249 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warabrook is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warabrook faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 50% (~990 people) have private health cover, compared to 55.6% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 10.6 and 9.3% of residents respectively.

However, 61.4% report no medical ailments, compared to 64.9% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.7% (471 people), compared to 16.7% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors generally align with the overall population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Warabrook was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warabrook's cultural diversity was above average, with 21.7% of its population born overseas and 19.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Warabrook, accounting for 59.1%, compared to 47.7% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (28.5%), English (25.1%), and Scottish (7.8%).

Notably, Macedonian (1.6%) was overrepresented in Warabrook compared to the regional average of 0.8%. Similarly, Samoan (0.7% vs 0.1%) and Vietnamese (1.1% vs 0.3%) were also overrepresented.

Warabrook hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warabrook's median age was 44 years in 2021, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 years and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Warabrook had a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (17.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.1%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Warabrook's median age decreased from 45 to 44 years. The percentage of residents aged 25-34 increased from 13.5% to 17.0%, while those aged 35-44 rose from 10.3% to 12.0%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 55-64 decreased from 13.2% to 11.7%, and those aged 85+ fell from 6.2% to 4.7%. By 2041, Warabrook's age composition is projected to shift significantly. The number of residents aged 25-34 is expected to increase by 92 people (27%), from 338 to 431. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 age cohorts.