Warabrook

An assessment of population growth drivers in Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Warabrook statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,061 people. This figure reflects an increase of 79 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,982 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,013 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,374 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Warabrook (SA2)'s growth rate of 4.0% since the census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population gains in the area during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Examining future population trends, a population increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation is expected for the Warabrook (SA2). Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is expected to grow by 220 persons to reach a total population of approximately 2,281 by the year 2041. This reflects an overall increase of 8.1% in population over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warabrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Warabrook had an average of one new dwelling approved annually over five years, with a total of eight approvals. This low level of development is typical in rural areas due to modest housing needs and limited construction activity influenced by local demand and infrastructure capacity. The small sample size means annual growth and relativity statistics can be significantly impacted by individual projects.

Warabrook has notably lower development activity compared to the Rest of NSW and national averages. Recent development consists entirely of medium and high-density housing, marking a shift from the area's current 70.0% houses. This trend caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, reflecting decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles. With approximately 3996 people per dwelling approval, Warabrook indicates a highly mature market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Warabrook is projected to grow by 166 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Looking ahead, Warabrook is expected to grow by 166 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Warabrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three major projects likely to impact the area: Callaghan Campus Heart, Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Mayfield Concept Plan, and Boatman Creek Flood Improvements. The following details these key projects in order of relevance:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Warabrook has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Warabrook has an educated workforce with high representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.6% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth of 2.8%.

As of September 2025, 1,065 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.2% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing had lower representation at 0.3% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. There were 0.9 workers for each resident as per the Census, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.8% while labour force increased by 3.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, the labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warabrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, assuming constant population growth for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Warabrook suburb had median income among taxpayers at $49,232 and average income at $57,736. These figures are lower than national averages which stood at $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.86% from financial year ended June 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $53,594 and average income at $62,851 as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 data, household, family, and personal incomes in Warabrook rank modestly between 38th and 43rd percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 33.8% of locals (696 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, similar to the regional average of 29.9%. After housing expenses, 85.2% of income remains for other expenditures. Warabrook's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warabrook displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Warabrook's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 69.5% houses and 30.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warabrook was at 38.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (28.2%) or rented (33.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Warabrook was $1,790, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. The median weekly rent figure in Warabrook was recorded at $375, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400 and the national average of $375.

Warabrook features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 67.8% of all households, including 26.4% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.2%, with lone person households at 27.0% and group households comprising 4.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the average for the Rest of NSW.

Warabrook shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates of 27.6% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Rest of NSW average of 21.3%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 32.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.1% and certificates at 21.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.4% in tertiary education, 6.8% in primary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warabrook has 19 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 different routes that together facilitate 4,294 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically residing just 157 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 613 trips per day across all routes, which amounts to about 226 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warabrook is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warabrook faces significant health challenges, affecting various age groups. Approximately half of its population (~1,026 people) has private health cover, compared to 56.7% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 10.6 and 9.3% of residents respectively.

About 61.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 64.9% in Rest of NSW. Warabrook has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (23.7%, or 488 people), compared to the Rest of NSW at 16.7%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Warabrook was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warabrook's cultural diversity is above average, with 21.7% of its population born overseas and 19.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warabrook, accounting for 59.1% of the population, compared to 47.7% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (28.5%), English (25.1%), and Scottish (7.8%).

Notably, Macedonian is overrepresented at 1.6%, Samoan at 0.7%, and Vietnamese at 1.1%.

Warabrook hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warabrook's median age was 44 years in 2021, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 years and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Warabrook had a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (17.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.1%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, Warabrook's median age decreased from 45 years to 44 years, indicating a rejuvenation of its population. Specifically, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 increased from 13.5% to 17.0%, while those aged 35-44 rose from 10.3% to 12.0%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 55-64 decreased from 13.2% to 11.7%, and those aged 85 and above dropped from 6.2% to 4.7%. By 2041, Warabrook's age composition is expected to change notably. The number of residents aged 25-34 is projected to increase by 81 people (23%) from 350 to 432. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 age cohorts.