Warabrook

An assessment of population growth drivers in Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Warabrook is around 2,063. This reflects an increase of 81 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,982. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,013 residents following examination of ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 11 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,375 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warabrook's growth rate of 4.1% since the census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%). Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 212 persons to reach a total population of 2,275 by 2041, reflecting an increase of 7.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warabrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Warabrook approved 8 new dwellings annually over five years ending in 2021. This minimal activity reflects its rural nature, with development driven by local needs rather than market demand. Individual projects can significantly impact annual growth statistics due to the small number of approvals.

Warabrook's development activity is much lower compared to Rest of NSW and below national averages. Recent building activity consists entirely of townhouses or apartments, indicating decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles seeking diverse, affordable housing options. Warabrook has 3996 people per approval, showing a mature, established area with an expected population growth of 159 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Looking ahead, Warabrook is expected to grow by 159 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Warabrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three major projects that may impact this region. Key projects are Callaghan Campus Heart, Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Mayfield Concept Plan, and Boatman Creek Flood Improvements. The following details those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Warabrook shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Warabrook has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, lower than the national average. Over the past year, ending September 2025, employment growth was estimated at 3.2%.

As of that date, 1,076 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.2% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Warabrook is 63.5%, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 23.6% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

Warabrook specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.3% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The ratio of workers to residents, as of the Census, indicates substantial local employment opportunities at 0.9 workers per resident. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 3.2%, while labour force increased by 3.7%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warabrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, Warabrook had a median income among taxpayers of $49,232 and an average income of $57,736. This is lower than the national average of $52,390 and the Rest of NSW's average of $65,215. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, median income is estimated at approximately $53,594 and average income at $62,851. The 2021 Census data ranks Warabrook's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 38th and 43rd percentiles. Incomes of $1,500 - 2,999 capture 33.8% of Warabrook residents (697 individuals), similar to metropolitan regions at 29.9%. After housing costs, 85.2% of income remains for other expenses. Warabrook's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warabrook displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warabrook's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.5% houses and 30.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warabrook stood at 38.5%, similar to Non-Metro NSW, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.2% and rented ones at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,790, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Warabrook was $375, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Warabrook's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable at $375.

Warabrook features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households compose 67.8% of all households, including 26.4% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.2%, with lone person households at 27.0% and group households comprising 4.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Rest of NSW average.

Warabrook shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 27.6% among residents aged 15+, exceeding the Rest of NSW average of 21.3%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 32.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas comprise 11.1% and certificates make up 21.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.4% in tertiary education, 6.8% in primary education, and 6.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warabrook has 19 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 different routes, collectively facilitating 4,294 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 157 meters to the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most Warabrook residents commute outwards, primarily using cars (94%). The area has a below-average vehicle ownership rate of 1.3 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 23.6% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

On average, there are 613 daily trips across all routes, equating to approximately 226 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warabrook is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Warabrook faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's assessment in March 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were substantially higher than average, particularly among older age cohorts. Private health cover was relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~1,027 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis were the most common medical conditions, impacting 10.6 and 9.3% of residents respectively, while 61.4% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age residents showed above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area had 23.2% of residents aged 65 and over (478 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting some challenges, though ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Warabrook was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warabrook's population shows cultural diversity with 21.7% born overseas and 19.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warabrook, with 59.1%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (28.5%), English (25.1%), and Scottish (7.8%).

Notably, Macedonian (1.6%) Samoan (0.7%) and Vietnamese (1.1%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Warabrook compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 0.1% and 0.1% respectively.

Warabrook hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warabrook's median age was 44 years in 2021, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 years and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Warabrook had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (17.5%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.0%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, Warabrook's median age decreased from 45 years to 44 years. The 25-34 age group grew from 13.5% to 17.5%, while the 35-44 age group increased from 10.3% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 85+ age group declined from 6.2% to 4.3%, and the 55-64 age group decreased from 13.2% to 11.6%. By 2041, Warabrook's population aged 25-34 is projected to increase by 69 people (19%), from 361 to 431. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65-74 age group and the 15-24 age group.