Warabrook

An assessment of population growth drivers in Warabrook reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Warabrook is around 2,063. This figure represents an increase of 81 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 1,982. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 2,013, based on analysis of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of an additional 11 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,375 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Warabrook's growth rate of 4.1% since the census is within 1.8 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for this population increase during recent periods.

For future projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by approximately 216 persons, reflecting an increase of 8.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warabrook, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Warabrook had eight new dwelling approvals over the five-year period ending in 20XX, with an average of one new dwelling approved annually. This low development level reflects Warabrook's rural nature, where housing needs typically drive development rather than market demand. Notably, individual projects can significantly impact annual growth statistics due to the small number of approvals.

Compared to Rest of NSW and national averages, Warabrook has much lower development activity. Recent building activity consists entirely of townhouses or apartments, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. Currently, 70.0% of housing in Warabrook are houses, with a notable shift towards compact living expected to attract downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 3998 people per approval, Warabrook is considered an established area. By 2041, Warabrook's population is projected to grow by 166 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Looking ahead, Warabrook is expected to grow by 166 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Warabrook has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects likely impacting the area: Callaghan Campus Heart, Newcastle Port Logistics Hub, Mayfield Concept Plan, and Boatman Creek Flood Improvements. The following details these key projects in order of relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Warabrook shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Warabrook has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.2% as of AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data for the past year, indicating an employment growth estimate of 0.6%. As of December 2025, 1,063 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.2% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Warabrook was fairly standard at 64.4%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 23.6% of residents worked from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Warabrook had a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented at 0.3% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%.

The ratio of 0.9 workers per resident indicated substantial local employment opportunities as of the Census date. During the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.6%, and labour force increased by 1.7%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 1.2 percentage points, contrasting with Regional NSW's employment contraction of 1.2% and labour force fall of 0.8%. For future insights into potential demand within Warabrook, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can be considered. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warabrook's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, Warabrook had a median income among taxpayers of $49,232 and an average income of $57,736. This is lower than the national average of $52,390 and compares to levels of $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $53,594 (median) and $62,851 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Warabrook rank modestly, between the 38th and 43rd percentiles. The data shows that 33.8% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999, reflecting patterns seen in metropolitan regions where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. After housing expenses, 85.2% of income remains for other expenses and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Warabrook displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warabrook's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 69.5% houses and 30.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warabrook was at 38.5%, similar to Regional NSW, with the remaining dwellings being mortgaged (28.2%) or rented (33.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Warabrook was $1,790, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Warabrook was recorded at $375, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Warabrook's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were comparable to the national figure of $375.

Warabrook features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.8% of all households, including 26.4% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 12.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.2%, with lone person households at 27.0% and group households comprising 4.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Warabrook shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate of 27.6%, among residents aged 15+, exceeds the Rest of NSW average of 21.3%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 18.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (21.6%), are held by 32.7% of residents aged 15+.

Educational participation is high with 25.5% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 7.4% in tertiary, 6.8% in primary, and 6.4% in secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warabrook has 19 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 16 routes providing 4,294 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 157 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 23.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 613 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 226 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warabrook is well below average with considerably higher than average prevalence of common health conditions and to an even higher degree among older age cohorts

Warabrook faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantially higher than average, particularly among older age cohorts. Only approximately 50% of Warabrook's total population (~1,027 people) has private health cover, compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.6% and 9.3% of residents respectively. However, 61.4% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Warabrook has 22.8% of residents aged 65 and over (470 people). While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Warabrook was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warabrook's population, surveyed in June 2016, showed higher than average cultural diversity with 21.7% born overseas and 19.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 59.1%, compared to 55.9% regionally. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (28.5%), English (25.1%), and Scottish (7.8%).

Notably, Macedonian (1.6%), Samoan (0.7%), and Vietnamese (1.1%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively.

Warabrook hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warabrook's median age in 2021 was 44 years, similar to Regional NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, Warabrook had a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (17.0%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (9.9%). Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Warabrook's median age decreased from 45 to 44 years. The percentage of residents aged 25-34 increased from 13.5% to 17.0%, while those aged 35-44 grew from 10.3% to 12.3%. Conversely, the percentage of residents aged 85+ declined from 6.2% to 4.2%, and those aged 55-64 decreased from 13.2% to 11.4%. By 2041, Warabrook's age composition is projected to change significantly. The number of residents aged 25-34 is expected to increase by 66 people (19%), from 350 to 417. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 age cohorts.