Shortland

Shortland lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of May 2026 the estimated population of Shortland is around 5,480. This reflects an increase of 943 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,537. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,473, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 201 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 835 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Shortland's growth of 20.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW (4.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 95.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, Shortland is predicted to experience exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of Australia's non-metropolitan areas over the period. By 2041, the suburb is expected to increase by 2,891 persons, reflecting an overall increase of 52.6% in total population over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Shortland among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Shortland has recorded around 33 residential properties granted approval each year. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 165 homes were approved, with an additional 27 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 3.8 new residents arrive per dwelling constructed over these years, indicating supply is lagging demand, which typically leads to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $264,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year has seen $14.0 million in commercial development approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shortland shows moderately higher new home approvals, 26.0% above the regional average per person over the past 5 years. This balances buyer choice while supporting current property values. New building activity comprises 14.0% standalone homes and 86.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a trend toward denser development to provide accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently 70.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. Shortland has around 143 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a growth area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Shortland is expected to grow by 2,884 residents through to 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Shortland has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely to impact the region. Notable ones include Shortland Waters Retirement Village, Callaghan Campus Heart, 9 Gothic Street Student Accommodation, and Boatman Creek Flood Improvements. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Shortland has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Shortland has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.2% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.7%. As of December 2025, 2,777 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 4.2%, 1.3% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation was broadly similar to Regional NSW at 60.5%. According to Census responses, 18.3% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented with only 0.5% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.7%, labour force increased by 3.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.7 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates varying significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Shortland's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Shortland suburb had a median taxpayer income of $54,845 and an average income of $65,365. Nationally, the median was $57,090 and the average was $71,390. In Regional NSW, the figures were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Shortland are approximately $60,505 (median) and $72,111 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data places Shortland between the 23rd and 25th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. Income distribution shows 33.3% of locals (1,824 people) earn $1,500 - 2,999, mirroring the broader area's 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 19th percentile.

Shortland displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Shortland's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 69.9% houses and 30.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shortland stood at 27.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.9% and rented ones at 38.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,679, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Shortland was $377, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Shortland's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,679 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $377 than the national figure of $375.

Shortland features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.0% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.0%, with lone person households at 29.5% and group households comprising 8.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Shortland faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 20.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.6%. Vocational credentials are common, with 37.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 8.5% and certificates for 29.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in tertiary education, 7.3% in primary education, and 5.1% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 45 active stops operating within Shortland, comprising various bus routes. These are serviced by 20 individual routes, collectively offering 381 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 148 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature, with car being the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 18.3% of residents work from home, possibly reflecting COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 54 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shortland is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Shortland faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is more prevalent than average at approximately 53% (~2,892 people). Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, impacting 12.3 and 9.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.5% (958 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings.

Shortland ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shortland's population was found to be less diverse culturally, with 86.3% being citizens, 85.0% born in Australia, and 88.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 50.0% of Shortland's population. Islam, however, was overrepresented at 2.6%, compared to Regional NSW's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (29.3%), English (29.2%), and Scottish (8.3%) were the top groups represented in Shortland. Notably, Welsh (0.7% vs regional 0.5%), Samoan (0.4% vs regional 0.1%), and Australian Aboriginal (4.6% vs regional 4.6%) had different representations compared to Regional NSW.

Shortland's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

Shortland's median age is 31, which is lower than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group makes up 25.4% of Shortland's population, compared to Regional NSW, while the 45-54 cohort constitutes only 6.4%. This concentration of individuals aged 25-34 is significantly higher than the national average of 14.6%. Between 2021 and the present, Shortland's median age has decreased by 1.6 years from 33 to 31, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. During this period, the 25-34 age group grew from 20.7% to 25.4%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.0% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 9.3% to 7.7%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 8.0% to 6.4%. Demographic modeling projects significant changes in Shortland's age profile by 2041. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 80%, adding 1,111 people to reach a total of 2,503 from the current 1,391. Meanwhile, the 85+ age group is projected to decrease by 12 residents.