Waratah West

An assessment of population growth drivers in Waratah West reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of the Waratah West statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 3,298 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 156 people since the Census in August 2021, which reported a population of 3,142 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,280 residents following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 57 validated new addresses since August 2021. This level of population results in a density ratio of approximately 2,100 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Waratah West (SA2)'s growth rate of 5.0% since the census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for population gains in the area during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in June 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in December 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth rate for locations outside capital cities, with the Waratah West (SA2) expected to grow by 493 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Waratah West, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Waratah West has seen approximately 25 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 128 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 8 approvals recorded. On average, about 0.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new construction is keeping pace with demand or even exceeding it, providing more options for buyers while facilitating population growth.

The average value of new dwellings is approximately $510,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment. In FY-26, there have been around $8.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the rest of NSW, Waratah West has moderately higher new home approvals, with a 46.0% increase per person over the five-year period ending FY-25. This maintains reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods.

The majority of new building activity involves medium and high-density housing (74.0%), with detached dwellings comprising 26.0%. This shift towards higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a significant change from the current housing mix which is predominantly houses (85.0%). Waratah West reflects a highly mature market with around 645 people per dwelling approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Waratah West is expected to grow by approximately 438 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Waratah West has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Former Waratah Gasworks Redevelopment, Callaghan Campus Heart, Waratah Park Masterplan, and Hunter Indoor Sports Centre (HISC). The following list details those most relevant.

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Waratah West shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Waratah West has an educated workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 5.4% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. The area's unemployment rate is 1.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation is higher at 63.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and accommodation & food. Waratah West has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.6% of its workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 2.3% while labour force increased by 3.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%, with a rise in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Waratah West's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median taxpayer income in Waratah West is $44,944, with an average of $53,987, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is lower than the national average, which is a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 in Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $48,926 (median) and $58,770 (average). Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Waratah West rank modestly, between the 25th and 36th percentiles. Income distribution indicates that 33.1% of the population falls within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Waratah West, with only 80.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 32nd percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Waratah West is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Waratah West's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.2% houses and 14.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NSW had 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Waratah West was 25.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.1% and rented ones at 45.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,853, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. Median weekly rent in Waratah West was $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Waratah West's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,853 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $390.

Waratah West features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 58.4% of all households, including 19.3% couples with children, 25.2% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.6%, with lone person households at 27.9% and group households making up 13.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Rest of NSW average.

Educational outcomes in Waratah West fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates of 27.4%, exceeding the Rest of NSW average of 21.3%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 18.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 30.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 8.6% and certificates for 21.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 34.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.7% in tertiary education, 6.2% in primary education, and 5.4% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Waratah West has 30 active public transport stops, all bus services. These are covered by 20 routes, offering a total of 956 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average 115 meters from the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency averages 136 trips across all routes, equating to around 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Waratah West is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across the board, though to a considerably higher degree among older age cohorts

Waratah West faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across all age groups, but more so among older individuals. Private health cover is low at approximately 48%, compared to 56.7% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues affect 12.3% of residents, while asthma impacts 8.7%.

A total of 66.8% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the 64.9% in Rest of NSW. The area has an 11.1% senior population (366 people), lower than the 16.7% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to specific challenges they face.

In terms of cultural diversity, Waratah West records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Waratah West had a higher than average cultural diversity, with 19.5% of its population born overseas and 15.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Waratah West, accounting for 43.5% of people. Notably, Islam was overrepresented compared to the rest of NSW, comprising 4.1% versus 1.7%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (28.0%), Australian (26.1%), and Other (9.2%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Polish at 1.0% versus 0.8%, Australian Aboriginal at 5.2% versus 3.2%, and Serbian at 0.4% versus 0.2%.

Waratah West hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Waratah West's median age was 30 years in the 2021 Census, significantly lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Waratah West had a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (24.6%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (6.1%), with this age group being well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, younger residents shifted Waratah West's median age down by 1.4 years to 30. Key changes included an increase in the proportion of residents aged 25-34 from 21.6% to 24.6%, and a rise in the 35-44 age group from 11.6% to 13.5%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort declined from 3.3% to 1.1% and the 75-84 group decreased from 5.7% to 3.9%. Population forecasts for Waratah West in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to increase by 256 people (32%) from 811 to 1,068. Conversely, both the 85+ and 55-64 age groups are expected to have reduced numbers.