Waratah (NSW)

Population growth drivers in Waratah are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the population of the suburb of Waratah (NSW) is estimated to be around 4,995. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 4,927 people, representing a rise of 68 individuals or approximately 1.4%. The latest estimate by AreaSearch, based on their examination of the ABS's ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date, puts the resident population at 4,971. This results in a density ratio of 2,615 persons per square kilometer, placing Waratah in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration was the primary driver behind this population growth.

For projections, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by ABS data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections indicate an above median population growth for Australia's regional areas, with Waratah expected to expand by 629 persons to reach approximately 5,624 inhabitants by the year 2041, marking a total gain of 11.1% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Waratah, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Waratah averaged approximately 13 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending FY-25. This totals an estimated 67 homes. In FY-26 so far, four approvals have been recorded. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an average of 0.4 people moved to Waratah per year for each dwelling built.

New construction is matching or outpacing demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current expectations. The average value of new properties constructed in the area is $510,000. This financial year, $2.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting Waratah's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Waratah records markedly lower building activity, 51.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. When measured against the national average, Waratah indicates its established nature and suggests potential planning limitations. New development consists of 30.0% detached dwellings and 70.0% medium and high-density housing.

This trend marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 62.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Waratah shows a mature, established area with around 896 people per approval. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Waratah is expected to grow by 552 residents through to 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Waratah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The area's performance is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include Former Waratah Gasworks Redevelopment, Waratah Park Masterplan, Hunter Indoor Sports Centre (HISC), and Mayfield Concept Plan. The following list details those most relevant:.

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Employment performance in Waratah has been broadly consistent with national averages

Waratah has an educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.2% as of the past year, with estimated employment growth of 2.4%.

As of June 2025, 2,892 residents were employed, and the unemployment rate was 0.4% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was at par with Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance showed strong specialization with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 0.4% compared to 5.3% regionally.

The area functioned as an employment hub with 1.0 workers per resident, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from nearby areas. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.4%, while labour force grew by 2.5%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.1% and a rise in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Waratah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

Waratah's median taxpayer income was $51,430 and average income was $61,778 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. By September 2025, estimates suggest Waratah's median income will be approximately $57,915 and average income $69,568, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61%. The 2021 Census places household, family, and personal incomes in Waratah between the 36th and 46th percentiles. Income brackets show that 31.6% of individuals fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing affordability is severe, with only 80.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 32nd percentile. Waratah's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Waratah displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Waratah's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 62.5% houses and 37.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Waratah stood at 22.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.4% and rented ones at 48.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,827, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. The median weekly rent in Waratah was $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Waratah's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,827 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less at $350 than the national figure of $375.

Waratah features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.0% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 22.3% couples without children, and 13.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 44.0%, with lone person households at 35.8% and group households making up 8.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Waratah aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Waratah's educational attainment is notably high, with 31.6% of residents aged 15+ having university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the rest of NSW and 26.1% in its SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 21.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 34.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 25.1%. Educational participation is high, with 32.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.6% in tertiary, 7.9% in primary, and 5.9% pursuing secondary education.

Waratah has a robust network of 8 schools educating approximately 3,152 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 998) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub with 63.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.5, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The transport analysis indicates there are 56 active stops in Waratah, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 64 individual routes that collectively facilitate 5,307 weekly passenger trips. The report rates transport accessibility as excellent, with residents typically residing 121 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 758 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 94 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Waratah is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Waratah faces significant health challenges, with various conditions impacting both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 51% of Waratah's total population (~2,566 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area's 55.6%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions in Waratah, affecting 12.6% and 8.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 64.9% across Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 23.5% (1,173 people) compared to Rest of NSW's 16.7%. Health outcomes among seniors in Waratah generally align with the broader population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Waratah records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Waratah's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 85.0% citizens, 82.8% born in Australia, and 87.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, at 49.7%. Judaism, however, is slightly overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to the Rest of NSW's 0.1%.

The top ancestry groups are English (28.4%), Australian (27.0%), and Irish (10.2%). Notably, Welsh (0.7% vs 0.8%), Polish (0.9% vs 0.8%), and Macedonian (0.4% vs 0.8%) groups show higher representation in Waratah than regionally.

Waratah hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Waratah is 40 years, which is slightly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. The 25-34 cohort makes up 20.7% of Waratah's population, notably higher than the Rest of NSW average and well above the national average of 14.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group is under-represented at 6.8%. Between the 2021 Census and now, Waratah has become younger, with median age dropping from 41 to 40 years. The 25-34 age group grew from 17.0% to 20.7%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.3% to 13.0%. However, the 45-54 cohort declined from 11.3% to 9.6%, and the 5-14 group dropped from 8.2% to 6.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Waratah. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 305 people (30%), increasing from 1,033 to 1,339. Conversely, both the 15-24 and 55-64 age groups are expected to decrease in number.