Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

According to the analysis conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is approximately 7,071 as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 184 individuals (2.7%) relative to the 2021 Census, which recorded 6,887 people. This shift is calculated utilizing the ABS estimated resident population of 7,065 from June 2025 alongside 16 validated new addresses registered after the Census. Such a population size results in a density of 235 persons per square kilometer, offering ample space per resident and capacity for future expansion. The post-census growth rate of 2.7% in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is within 2.2 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (4.9%), indicating competitive demographic momentum. The primary driver of this population growth was interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 59.8% of the total demographic gains in recent times.

AreaSearch adopts the demographic projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia published in 2024, using 2022 as the baseline. For SA2 regions lacking this coverage, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are implemented. Age cohort growth rates derived from these sources are projected forward to the years 2032 through 2041. Future projections suggest that population growth will exceed the national non-metropolitan median, with the locality predicted to add 1,023 residents by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP statistics, which translates to a overall rise of 14.4% across the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Around 19 residential builds receive development consent annually in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, culminating in 97 approved dwellings over the preceding 5 financial years. In the current FY-26 period, 49 approvals have been logged. With an average influx of 1.9 new residents per completed home annually over the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, residential supply and demand appear balanced, yielding steady market conditions, though this metric has climbed to 4.4 individuals per approved home over the past 2 financial years, pointing to rising local demand and possible supply bottlenecks. Approved development ventures carry an average construction value of $314,000. Additionally, commercial approvals worth $1.9 million were recorded this financial year, highlighting the predominantly residential character of the locality.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay exhibits a low volume of building activity when contrasted with the Rest of NSW, sitting 55.0% below the regional average per capita. This limited rate of new builds generally underpins demand and supports pricing for established properties. This volume is also below the national standard, reflecting the mature state of the local market and hinting at potential planning constraints. Current construction activity consists of 69.0% detached houses and 31.0% medium and high-density formats, revealing a broadening selection of medium-density choices that provide diverse entry points, ranging from traditional family residences to more economical compact options. This represents a distinct shift from the existing housing stock, which is currently 91.0% houses, suggesting a decrease in available development sites and mirroring changing lifestyle choices and affordability needs. The calculation of 1363 residents for every single dwelling approval underscores the quiet and low-intensity nature of local development.

Looking forward, the population of Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is projected to expand by 1,017 occupants by 2041, according to the latest quarterly estimates from AreaSearch. Should current construction rates persist, the supply of new housing may fail to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and driving upward pressure on prices.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Local infrastructure updates, major construction works, and planning policies significantly affect regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 6 projects expected to influence the local area. Prominent developments include The Caswell Supported Living Village, the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), the 100 Salamander Way Residential Development, and the Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, with details provided on the most significant initiatives.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

The workforce of Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is distributed across white and blue-collar occupations, featuring a solid presence in essential services, an unemployment rate of 5.0%, and an estimated job growth rate of 2.8% over the past year. As of March 2026, employed residents count 2,647, with the unemployment rate standing 0.9% higher than the Regional NSW benchmark of 4.1%, while workforce participation is considerably lower at 46.0% compared to 60.6% in Regional NSW. Census data indicates a moderate 18.0% of the working population operated from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of Covid-19 restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local citizens are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The community displays a distinct specialization in retail trade, where the employment concentration is 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, education & training is underrepresented, employing just 5.2% of the workforce in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay compared to 9.6% across Regional NSW. A comparison of the Census working population against the resident population suggests that the local area offers a restricted number of job opportunities.

AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics shows that during the 12-month period, employment expanded by 2.8% while the labor force grew by 1.4%, leading to a decrease in unemployment by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced a 0.9% contraction in employment, a 0.4% decline in the labor force, and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 provide additional context regarding future demand trends in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay. These projections, spanning five and ten-year horizons, have been applied to the local industry mix to model growth trends. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with performance varying by sector. Applying these industry projections to the local employment distribution suggests local jobs could grow by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, representing a basic weighted extrapolation for illustrative purposes that does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Income levels within the Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay SA2 sit below the national average, according to taxpayer data from the ATO compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Taxpayers in the Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay SA2 recorded a median income of $46,130 and an average income of $55,168, compared to $52,390 and $65,215 respectively in Regional NSW. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, updated estimates suggest figures of approximately $50,891 for median income and $60,861 for average income as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census places the household, family, and individual incomes of Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationwide. The income distribution shows that 29.0% of the community, representing 2,050 people, falls into the $800 - 1,499 weekly bracket, differing from regional trends where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is most common at 29.9%. Affordability constraints are significant, with residents retaining only 82.1% of their income, which ranks in the 8th percentile.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the time of the last Census, the housing composition in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay consisted of 91.1% separate houses and 8.9% alternative housing types including semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwellings, compared to Regional NSW where separate houses made up 82.6% and other dwellings accounted for 17.4%. Home ownership rates in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay were notably higher than the Regional NSW average at 44.2%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (29.3%) or rented (26.5%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,517 was below the Regional NSW average of $1,733, while the median weekly rent was $365 compared to the Regional NSW average of $330. Nationally, mortgage repayments in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay are below the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are lower than the national figure of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families represent the majority of local households at 69.5%, consisting of couples with children at 21.2%, couples without children at 34.2%, and single-parent households at 13.1%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households representing 27.4% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 individuals, which is slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The locality demonstrates lower rates of higher education, with university qualification rates at 11.5%, which is well below the NSW average of 32.2%. This situation presents a clear target for focused educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 2.0% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Vocational and technical training is highly prevalent, with 45.0% of citizens aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 35.1%.

A total of 24.0% of the local population is enrolled in formal study. This student population includes 8.6% attending primary schools, 7.5% enrolled in secondary education, and 2.0% participating in tertiary studies.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transit options indicates 69 transport stops are active in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, offering bus services. These locations are serviced by 25 distinct routes, which provide 279 weekly passenger connections. Accessibility is high, with residents living an average of 166 meters from the nearest stop. The area is primarily residential, with 96% of commuters traveling by private car. Average vehicle ownership is 1.5 per household. Working from home was recorded for 18.0% of the workforce in the 2021 Census, which may reflect the pandemic context.

Transit service frequency averages 39 daily runs across all active routes, which translates to approximately 4 weekly passenger departures per stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and chronic illness rates highlights significant health challenges in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, with various conditions affecting both youth and elderly cohorts, while the proportion of residents with private health insurance is low at roughly 47% of the population, representing approximately 3,351 people. This is below the Regional NSW average of 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent medical issues, affecting 13.1% and 10.8% of the population respectively, while 55.2% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Chronic illness rates are elevated among the working-age cohort. Residents aged 65 and over make up 29.0% of the population, equating to 2,052 individuals, which is higher than the Regional NSW proportion of 23.4%. Senior health outcomes present some difficulties, with national rankings aligning closely with general population trends.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay exhibits lower cultural diversity compared to broader averages, with 88.3% of residents born in Australia, 91.4% holding citizenship, and 96.8% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 54.2% of the population, which is comparable to the 55.9% recorded across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestral backgrounds, the three most common heritages in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay are English at 33.4%, Australian at 31.1%, and Scottish at 8.1%. Notable variations exist in other demographics, with Australian Aboriginal ancestry representing 5.2% of the local population compared to 4.6% regionally, Dutch heritage at 1.3% compared to 1.0% regionally, and Maltese heritage matching the regional rate at 0.4%.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of 50 in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is higher than the Regional NSW median of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 age bracket is highly represented at 16.2% compared to Regional NSW, while the 5 - 14 demographic is less common at 9.4%. This concentration in the 65 - 74 range is higher than the national rate of 9.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort has increased from 9.3% to 11.2% of the population, and the 75 to 84 cohort has grown from 9.1% to 10.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 11.7% to 10.2% and the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.4%. Projections indicate the local age profile will shift by 2041, with the 25 to 34 cohort expected to grow by 225 people (33%) from 695 to 921, while the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to decrease by 57 individuals.