Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay
Statistical Area - sa2

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's population is 7,014 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 6,887 people, a rise of 127 people (1.8%). This change is inferred from the ABS estimated resident population of 7,001 in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 234 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 50.5% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, non-metropolitan areas are projected to have above median population growth. The area is expected to grow by 1,113 persons to 2041 based on the latest numbers, recording a gain of 15.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen approximately 19 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 97 homes. As of FY26, two approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling has accommodated around two new residents per year between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost value for new homes is $508,000.

In the current financial year, $1.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus compared to other areas in NSW. Compared to the rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has shown substantially reduced construction activity, with 56.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the current housing mix of 91.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval in the area is 1357 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Future projections show Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay adding approximately 1,100 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects potentially affecting this region. Notable ones are The Caswell Supported Living Village, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), 100 Salamander Way Residential Development, and Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay had an unemployment rate of 5.7% as of June 2025, with 2,600 residents employed. The area's unemployment rate was 2.0% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation was lower at 45.7%.

Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction, with retail trade being particularly strong at 1.2 times the regional level. Education & training had a limited presence at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 9.6%. The labour force decreased by 4.4% over a 12-month period ending in June 2025, while employment declined by the same percentage, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1%, with the labour force growing by 0.3% and unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points.

State-level data to Sep-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, employment grew by 0.26% while the unemployment rate was 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $43,604 and an average income of $52,993 in the financial year 2022, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. These figures compare to $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for the Rest of NSW. By March 2025, these incomes are estimated to be approximately $48,226 (median) and $58,610 (average), based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census figures show that household, family, and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay all fall between the 8th percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 29.0% of the community (2,034 individuals) earns within the $800 - $1,499 band, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, with only 82.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, consisted of 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure of 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings during the same period. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay stood at 44.2%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 29.3% and rented dwellings making up 26.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,517 as of August 2016, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay was recorded at $365 during this period, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, mortgage repayments in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863 as of August 2016, while rents were less than the national figure of $375 during this period.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.5% of all households, including 21.2% that are couples with children, 34.2% that are couples without children, and 13.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 27.4% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 11.5%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.0% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 35.1%.

A substantial 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.6% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.0% in tertiary education. Tanilba Bay Public School provides local educational services within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, enrolling 379 students as of the latest data. The area offers varied educational conditions, with one school focusing exclusively on primary education while secondary options are available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 5.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 11.8, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 63 active stops operating in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay area. These stops offer a mix of bus services. They are served by 25 individual routes, providing a total of 309 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 167 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 44 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces significant health issues, affecting both younger and older age groups. The private health cover rate is approximately 47% of the total population (around 3,275 people), compared to 49.3% in the rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. Arthritis and mental health problems are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 13.1% and 10.8% of residents respectively, while 55.2% report having no medical ailments, compared to 59.3% in the rest of NSW.

The area has 28.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,982 people), with senior health outcomes broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage-Tanilba Bay, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity score below average. 88.3% of its residents were born in Australia, with 91.4% being Australian citizens and 96.8% speaking only English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 54.2% of the population, compared to 57.4% across the rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.1%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation stood at 5.2%, higher than the regional average of 4.5%. Dutch ancestry was also slightly overrepresented at 1.3% compared to 1.1% regionally, while Maltese ancestry was present at 0.4%, slightly below the regional average of 0.5%.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is 50, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and also above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 15.7% of the population, compared to 12.9% in the Rest of NSW and 9.4% nationally. The 5-14 age group is less prevalent at 9.3%. Following the Census conducted on 10 August 2021, the 35 to 44 age group grew from 9.3% to 10.8%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 9.1% to 10.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 10.9% to 9.3% and the 65-74 group decreased from 16.8% to 15.7%. Demographic modeling indicates that Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow by 257 people, from 700 to 958, while the 15 to 24 age range is expected to decrease by 63 people.