Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's population, as of Nov 2025, is approximately 7,019, marking an increase of 132 people since the 2021 Census. This rise corresponds to a 1.9% growth from the previous population count of 6,887. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 7,001 in June 2024 and the addition of 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 234 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential room for further development. Overseas migration primarily drove this growth, contributing approximately 50.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, non-metropolitan areas nationally are projected to have above median population growth. The area is expected to grow by 1,113 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 15.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen approximately 19 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 97 homes. In FY26, 48 approvals have been recorded so far. On average, each new dwelling accommodates about two residents annually over the last five financial years (FY21 to FY25), indicating steady demand that supports property values. The average construction cost for new homes is around $314,000.

This year, $1.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a primarily residential focus. Compared to the rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has significantly lower construction activity (56.0% below regional average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an increasing blend of attached housing types to cater to various price ranges. This marks a notable shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (91.0%). The estimated population per dwelling approval in the area is 1357 people, indicating a quiet and low activity development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is projected to add around 1,095 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects expected to influence the area. Key projects are The Caswell Supported Living Village, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), 100 Salamander Way Residential Development, and Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.1%. There are 2,614 residents in work, which is 1.3% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation stands at 46.0%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 18.0% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade is particularly strong with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

However, education & training has limited presence at 5.2%, compared to 9.6% regionally. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.8% and employment declined by 1.4%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate of 1.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median income among taxpayers in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay SA2 was $46,130 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $55,168 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest that median income will be approximately $50,217 and average income around $60,056, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay all fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 29.0% of individuals earn between $800 and $1,499, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, with only 82.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, as per the latest Census, 91.1% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 8.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay was at 44.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.3% and rented ones at 26.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was $365 compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay had significantly lower mortgage repayments at $1,517 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also less at $365 compared to the national figure of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 21.2% couples with children, 34.2% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 27.4% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (35.1%).

A substantial 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.6% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 69 active transport stops operating within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay. These are served by a mix of buses along 25 individual routes, providing 279 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 166 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward due to the area's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 18% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across various health conditions that affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% of the total population (~3,327 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (10.8%), while 55.2% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.3% (1,983 people), compared to 23.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage-Tanilba Bay, surveyed in June 2016, had low cultural diversity with 88.3% born in Australia, 91.4% citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 54.2%, compared to 55.9% regionally. The top three ancestries were English (33.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Notable differences included overrepresentation of Aboriginal Australians (5.2% vs regional 4.6%), Dutch (1.3% vs 1.0%), and Maltese (0.4% vs 0.4%).

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and above the national average of 38. The age group of 65-74 years shows strong representation at 15.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's figure, while the 5-14 age group is less prevalent at 9.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is higher than the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 9.3% to 10.8%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 9.1% to 10.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 10.9% to 9.3%, and the 65-74 age group has dropped from 16.8% to 15.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow strongly, increasing by 256 people (37%) from 701 to 958. Meanwhile, the number of individuals in the 15-24 age range is expected to decrease by 64.