Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's population is around 7017 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 130 people, a 1.9% rise since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 6887 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7001 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 234 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 50.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward, an above median population growth is expected nationally for non-metropolitan areas, with the area projected to grow by 1113 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 15.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen approximately 19 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 97 homes. In FY26 so far, 47 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling accommodated around two new residents annually between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand which supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $314,000.

This financial year has seen $1.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting a primarily residential focus. Compared to the rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 56.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing mix of 91.0% houses. This change likely reflects reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population per dwelling approval in the area is 1357 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections suggest Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay will add approximately 1,097 residents by 2041, potentially leading to housing supply struggles and increased buyer competition if current development rates persist.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are The Caswell Supported Living Village, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), 100 Salamander Way Residential Development, and Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay had an unemployment rate of 5.1% in September 2025, with 2,614 residents employed. This was 1.3% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

The workforce participation rate was 45.7%, significantly lower than the regional average of 56.4%. Key employment industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade had a particularly strong presence, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level. However, education & training had limited representation at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 9.6%.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.8%, while employment declined by 1.4%, leading to a drop in unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Statewide, as of 25-November, NSW had an unemployment rate of 3.9% after contracting employment by 0.03%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median income among taxpayers in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay SA2 was $43,604 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $52,993 during the same period. These figures compare to $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $49,102 (median) and $59,675 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 29.0% of individuals earn between $800 and $1,499, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, with only 82.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, as per the latest Census, 91.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay stood at 44.2%, similar to Non-Metro NSW. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 29.3%, while rented dwellings made up 26.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733 and the national figure of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay was $365, slightly higher than Non-Metro NSW's $360 but below the national average of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.5% of all households, including 21.2% couples with children, 34.2% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 27.4% and group households making up 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.0% and graduate diplomas at 1.5%. Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (35.1%).

A total of 24.0% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 8.6% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay shows that there are currently 63 active transport stops operating. These stops service a mix of buses along 25 individual routes, providing a total of 309 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located within 167 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 44 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces significant health challenges, impacting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 47% (~3,276 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW's 49.3% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (10.8%), with 55.2% reporting no medical ailments, compared to Rest of NSW's 59.3%.

As of 2021, 28.3% (~1,983 people) are aged 65 and over. Seniors' health outcomes present challenges similar to the general population's profile.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage-Tanilba Bay had low cultural diversity, with 88.3% born in Australia, 91.4% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 54.2%. This is similar to Rest of NSW's 57.4%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.1%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 5.2% compared to the regional average of 4.5%, as were Dutch at 1.3% versus 1.1%, and Maltese at 0.4% versus 0.5%.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and well above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 15.7% of the population, compared to 9.4% nationally and 12.8% in the Rest of NSW. Conversely, the 5-14 age cohort is less prevalent at 9.3%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has grown from 9.3% to 10.8%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 9.1% to 10.3%. Meanwhile, the 5-14 age group declined from 10.9% to 9.3%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 16.8% to 15.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's age profile. The 25-34 age cohort is expected to grow by 257 people (37%), from 700 to 958. Conversely, the 15-24 age group is projected to decrease by 64 people.