Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's population is around 7,019 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 132 people (1.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,887 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,001 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 234 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 50.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth for non-metropolitan areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to grow by 1,113 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 15.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has experienced around 19 dwellings receiving development approval per year, totalling 97 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 48 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 2 new residents per year for each dwelling over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average construction cost of $314,000. Additionally, $1.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay shows substantially reduced construction (56.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, featuring an increasing blend of attached housing types offering choices across price ranges, from spacious family homes to more accessible compact options. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 91.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated count of 1357 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay adding 1,095 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 6 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include The Caswell Supported Living Village, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), 100 Salamander Way Residential Development, and Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment drivers in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.2%, and 0.5% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 2,623 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.3% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (46.1% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 18.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area shows particularly strong specialization in retail trade, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. Meanwhile, education & training has a limited presence with 5.2% employment compared to 9.6% regionally. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 0.5% alongside the labour force decreasing by 0.8%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.2 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay SA2's income level is lower than average on a national basis according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay SA2's median income among taxpayers is $46,130 and the average income stands at $55,168, which compares to figures for Regional NSW's of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,217 (median) and $60,056 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay all fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $800 - 1,499 earnings band captures 29.0% of the community (2,035 individuals), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 91.1% houses and 8.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 44.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (29.3%) or rented (26.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,517, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $365, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 69.5% of all households, comprising 21.2% couples with children, 34.2% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 27.4% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (11.5%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (35.1%).

A substantial 24.0% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.6% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 69 active transport stops operating within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 279 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 166 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. Some 18.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~3,327 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 13.1% and 10.8% of residents, respectively, while 55.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 28.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,988 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.3% of its population born in Australia, 91.4% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is Christianity, which makes up 54.2% of the population. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay are English, comprising 33.4% of the population, Australian, comprising 31.1% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 8.1% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 5.2% of Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay (vs 4.6% regionally), Dutch at 1.3% (vs 1.0%) and Maltese at 0.4% (vs 0.4%).

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 50, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay notably exceeds the Regional NSW figure of 43 and is well above the 38-year national average. The 65 - 74 age group shows strong representation at 15.8% compared to Regional NSW, whereas the 5 - 14 cohort is less prevalent at 9.1%. This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Following the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 9.3% to 11.2% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 9.0% to 10.2%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.1% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.7% to 10.5%. Demographic modeling suggests Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 239 people (33%) from 718 to 958. Conversely, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 52.