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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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Sales Activity
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Sales Detail
Population
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's population was 6,887 as of the 2021 Census. By May 2026, it had increased to around 7,071, a rise of 184 people (2.7%). This growth is inferred from an estimated resident population of 7,065 in June 2025 and the addition of 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density stands at 235 persons per square kilometer. The area's 2.7% growth since the census is within 2.2 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (4.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 59.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.
AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, it utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 1,023 persons, reflecting a gain of 14.4% in total over the 16 years, which is above the median population growth rate for non-metropolitan areas nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
Residential development activity is lower than average in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen approximately 19 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 97 homes. In FY26 to date, there have been 48 approvals. On average, each dwelling brings in about 2 new residents annually over these five years (FY21-FY25), indicating strong demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average cost of $314,000.
This financial year has seen $1.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting a primarily residential focus. Compared to the rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay shows significantly reduced construction activity (55.0% below regional averages per capita), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This is also lower than national averages, possibly due to planning constraints in the area. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing mix of 91.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1357 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. By 2041, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is projected to add approximately 1,017 residents (based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate).
If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally
The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes to local infrastructure. AreaSearch has identified six projects that may impact this particular area. Notable among these are The Caswell Supported Living Village, the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) and Development Control Plan (DCP), the 100 Salamander Way Residential Development, and the Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program. The following list provides details on those considered most relevant.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Hunter-Central Coast Renewable Energy Zone
The Hunter-Central Coast Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) is a critical network infrastructure project upgrading approximately 85km of existing 132kV sub-transmission lines between Kurri Kurri and Muswellbrook, and constructing two new substations at Sandy Creek (Muswellbrook) and Antiene (Singleton). The project delivers an additional 1GW of network transfer capacity, enabling connection of approximately 1.8GW of new renewable generation and storage. Ausgrid, as appointed network operator, is responsible for design, financing, construction and operation. The Project Deed with EnergyCo was signed in December 2025 following Australian Energy Regulator determination, and construction officially commenced on 27 February 2026. The REZ is the first in Australia to upgrade existing distribution poles and wires rather than build new transmission infrastructure. It will create 590 jobs during construction and 220 ongoing local positions, with full capacity expected by 2028.
Hunter Transmission Project
A critical 110 km overhead 500 kV transmission line project connecting Bayswater Power Station to a new switching station in Olney State Forest near Eraring. As of May 2026, the project is under assessment following the February 2026 lodgement of the Submissions and Amendment Reports. It serves as the northern section of the Sydney Ring, designed to transfer renewable energy from the Central-West Orana and New England REZs. Infrastructure includes new switching stations at Bayswater South and Olney, plus upgrades to existing substations. Environmental surveys are ongoing through May 2026, with a final government determination expected later this year.
Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy
Comprehensive NSW state planning reforms designed to increase housing density in well-located areas. The policy mandates mid-rise apartment buildings (3-6 storeys) and low-rise multi-dwelling housing (terraces, townhouses, and dual occupancies) within 800m of 171 high-frequency transport hubs and town centres. As of May 2026, the policy is fully operational following the phased rollout of dual occupancy provisions in July 2024 and mid-rise apartment provisions in early 2025. Recent updates include refined floor space ratios (FSR) and non-refusal standards to streamline local council assessments.
Mariyung Fleet (New Intercity Fleet)
The Mariyung Fleet is a 610-carriage double-deck electric train fleet (D sets) replacing the ageing V-set and Oscar fleets across the NSW intercity network. Delivered by the RailConnect NSW consortium (UGL, Hyundai Rotem, Mitsubishi Electric Australia), the trains feature wider 2x2 seating with arm rests, tray tables and cup holders, charging ports, dedicated luggage, pram and bicycle spaces, accessible toilets, dedicated wheelchair spaces, CCTV, digital information screens and Automatic Selective Door Operation. The fleet operates in 4, 6, 8 or 10-car formations. Passenger services commenced on the Central Coast & Newcastle Line on 3 December 2024, on the Blue Mountains Line on 13 October 2025, and on the South Coast Line on 14 April 2026. The South Coast Line rollout begins with seven 4 and 6-car sets, scaling to 16 trains by 2027 with 8-car sets later in 2026 and 10-car configurations in 2027. The project includes the Kangy Angy Maintenance Facility (operated by UGL on a 15-year contract) and extensive corridor upgrades including platform extensions, signalling modifications, balise installation and overhead wiring works.
Birubi Point Aboriginal Place Tourism Transport Interchange
The development of a new visitor interchange facility at Birubi Point Aboriginal Place, which includes a drop-off zone, coach parking, and car spaces. The project aims to manage increasing tourism pressures and improve the visitor experience to the Worimi Conservation Lands while protecting the site's cultural and environmental significance. The project is currently on hold while Port Stephens Council seeks alternative funding.
Anna Bay Strategy and Town Plan
The Anna Bay Strategy and Town Plan guides the management of future population growth and the building of neighborhoods in Anna Bay. It establishes policy direction for future rezoning requests, development controls, and integrates the location, timing, and funding for community facilities and infrastructure. The vision for Anna Bay is a small and vibrant town with a mix of dwelling types, business opportunities, and a quality natural environment. This includes facilitating low-density residential on lots of 400-700sqm, medium-density villas and townhouses, and environmental living on lots of at least 1,000sqm to protect koala corridors. It also plans for commercial expansion, a new small neighborhood center, light industrial uses, and conservation of environmentally sensitive areas like the northern sand ridge.
Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm
NSW Government $275 million investment to improve safety and travel times on Nelson Bay Road including duplicating the road from Williamtown to Bobs Farm. Major connection between Newcastle Airport, RAAF base and Nelson Bay used by 25,000 motorists daily.
100 Salamander Way Residential Development
Council-led planning proposal to rezone 87 hectares of land to deliver 110 residential lots with mixed-density housing including detached houses, townhouses and multi-dwelling units for over 300 residents. The development will retain 83% of the site (73 hectares) for environmental conservation through biobanking, with a 1-hectare tree planting buffer zone to support wildlife movement. Profits from land sales will fund the Roads Acceleration Program, intersection upgrades including a new roundabout at Salamander Way entrance, footpath connections, and environmental management initiatives. Public exhibition and hearing expected to commence early 2026.
Employment
Employment drivers in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.2%. There was an estimated employment growth of 0.5% in the past year.
In total, 2,623 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.3% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation lags at 45.7%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 18.0% of residents work from home. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.
Retail trade is particularly strong with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. However, education & training has limited presence at 5.2%, compared to 9.6% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 0.5% while labour force decreased by 0.8%, causing unemployment to fall by 1.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's employment mix, local employment is expected to increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis
The median income among taxpayers in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay SA2 was $46,130 and the average income stood at $55,168 according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This compares to figures for Regional NSW which were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $50,891 (median) and $60,861 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay all fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that the $800 - 1,499 earnings band captures 29.0% of the community (2,050 individuals), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, with only 82.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
In Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, as per the latest Census, 91.1% of dwellings were houses, with 8.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay stood at 44.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.3% and rented ones at 26.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent was recorded as $365, compared to $330 in Regional NSW. Nationally, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay had lower mortgage repayments ($1,517 vs $1,863) and rents ($365 vs $375).
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size
Family households account for 69.5% of all households, including 21.2% that are couples with children, 34.2% that are couples without children, and 13.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.5%, with lone person households at 27.4% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally
The area's university qualification rate is 11.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (35.1%).
A total of 24.0% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, with 8.6% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Public transport analysis shows that there are 69 active transport stops operating within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay. These stops offer a mix of bus services. They are serviced by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 279 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 166 meters from the nearest transport stop. As of the 2021 Census, most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with car remaining the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling.
Some 18.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions). Service frequency averages 39 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% of the total population (~3,351 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.
The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (10.8%), while 55.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with higher chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.0% (2,052 people), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics
Lemon Tree Passage-Tanilba Bay had a cultural diversity index below average, with 88.3% of its population born in Australia and 96.8% speaking English only at home as of 2016 Census data. The majority religion was Christianity, practised by 54.2% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.1%).
Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 5.2%, Dutch at 1.3%, and Maltese at 0.4%, compared to regional averages of 4.6%, 1.0%, and 0.4% respectively.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide
Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a median age of 50, which is higher than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and well above the national average of 38. The age group of 65-74 is strongly represented at 16.2%, compared to Regional NSW's figure, while the 5-14 age group is less prevalent at 9.4%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is higher than the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 9.3% to 11.2% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 9.1% to 10.6%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 11.7% to 10.2%, and the 5-14 age group has fallen from 10.9% to 9.4%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's age profile will change significantly. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow by 225 people (33%), from 695 to 921, while the 15 to 24 age range is expected to decrease by 57.