Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay
Statistical Area - sa2

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's population is around 7,014 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 127 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,887 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,001 in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 234 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 50.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections show an above median growth of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with the area expected to grow by 1,113 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, recording a gain of 15.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen approximately 19 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 97 homes. In FY26 so far, there have been 2 approvals recorded. On average, each dwelling has accommodated around 2 new residents annually between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand that supports property values. The average construction cost of new dwellings is $508,000.

This year, $1.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has seen significantly reduced construction activity (56.0% below regional average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. This is also below national averages, suggesting maturity in the area and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current housing mix of 91.0% houses. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1357 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Future projections indicate Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay adding approximately 1,100 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects that may affect this region. Notable ones are The Caswell Supported Living Village, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), 100 Salamander Way Residential Development, and Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, and the unemployment rate is 5.7%.

As of June 2025, 2600 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 3.7% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 45.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade has a particularly strong presence with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

Education & training, however, has limited presence at 5.2% compared to the regional figure of 9.6%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and May 2025, labour force decreased by 4.4%, while employment also declined by 4.4%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 5.7%. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose to 4.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggest that over five years, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% and by 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's median income among taxpayers was $43,604 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $52,993 during the same period. These figures compare to Rest of NSW's median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimates project Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's median income to be approximately $49,102 and the average income at $59,675, based on a 12.61% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay all fell between the 8th percentile nationally. The earnings profile showed that 29.0% of the community (2,034 individuals) earned within the $800 - 1,499 band, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket led at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, as per the latest Census, 91.1% of dwellings were houses while 8.9% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments and other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay stood at 44.2%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's level. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (29.3%) or rented (26.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than the Non-Metro NSW average of $1,733. Weekly rent in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay was recorded at $365, slightly higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $360. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.5% of all households, including 21.2% couples with children, 34.2% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.5%, consisting of 27.4% lone person households and 3.3% group households. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 11.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 35.1%.

A substantial 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.6% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education. Tanilba Bay Public School serves the local educational needs within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, with an enrollment of 379 students as of the latest data. The area has varied educational conditions, with one school focusing exclusively on primary education, while secondary options are available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited, with only 5.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 11.8, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 63 active stops operating within Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 25 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide 309 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 167 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 44 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Health challenges are prominent in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay, affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 47% (~3,275 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW at 49.3%, but below the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (10.8%), while 55.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 59.3% in Rest of NSW.

As of 2021, 28.3% (~1,982 people) are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges similar to the general population's health profile.

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage-Tanilba Bay showed lower cultural diversity, with 88.3% born in Australia, 91.4% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 54.2%, compared to 57.4% regionally. Top ancestry groups were English (33.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 5.2% (vs regional 4.5%), Dutch at 1.3% (vs 1.1%), and Maltese at 0.4% (vs 0.5%).

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group makes up 15.7% of the population, compared to 12.9% in the Rest of NSW and 9.4% nationally. Meanwhile, the 5-14 age cohort is less prevalent at 9.3%. Post the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group grew from 9.3% to 10.8%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 9.1% to 10.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group declined from 10.9% to 9.3% and the 65-74 group decreased from 16.8% to 15.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Lemon Tree Passage - Tanilba Bay's age profile. The 25-34 age cohort is expected to grow by 257 people (37%), reaching 958 from an initial 700. Conversely, the 15-24 age range is projected to decrease by 63 people.