Nelson Bay Peninsula

Nelson Bay Peninsula has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Nelson Bay Peninsula's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 22,257. This figure reflects an increase of 285 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,972. The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population figures of 22,044 as of June 2024 and an additional 125 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 468 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, based on latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is projected to increase by 1,921 persons, reflecting a gain of approximately 7.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Nelson Bay Peninsula recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Nelson Bay Peninsula has recorded approximately 100 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 504 homes. As of FY26, 24 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.3 new residents arrive per year for each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new properties is $721,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment.

In FY26, $14.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development compared to other NSW areas. Nelson Bay Peninsula has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 51st percentile nationally. Building activity shows 36.0% standalone homes and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 62.0% houses). This reflects low density development with approximately 341 people per approval. By 2041, Nelson Bay Peninsula is expected to grow by 1,707 residents.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Nelson Bay Peninsula has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel, Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan, The Belvedere, and Kurrara Hill. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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While Nelson Bay Peninsula retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.8%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Nelson Bay Peninsula has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.8%.

In this month, 8,690 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 46.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level.

In contrast, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.0% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 4.2%, accompanied by a 4.6% decrease in employment, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW, where employment contracted by 0.1%, the labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Nelson Bay Peninsula's employment mix, local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Nelson Bay Peninsula SA2 had a median income of $42,224 and an average income of $60,154 in the financial year 2022. This is below the national averages for Rest of NSW at $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $47,548 and average income $67,739, based on a 12.61% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Nelson Bay Peninsula fall between the 18th and 19th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant with 27.2% of residents (6,053 people). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Nelson Bay Peninsula displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Nelson Bay Peninsula, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 62.3% houses and 37.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nelson Bay Peninsula was at 49.0%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (24.4%) or rented (26.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,861, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Nelson Bay Peninsula's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Nelson Bay Peninsula has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Nelson Bay Peninsula fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.9%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 13.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 29.3%. A total of 23.2% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 8.1% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.2% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.1% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 219 active transport stops operating within Nelson Bay Peninsula. These comprise a mix of buses serving 84 routes. Weekly passenger trips total 1,099.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 158 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 157 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Nelson Bay Peninsula is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Nelson Bay Peninsula faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across younger and older age groups. Approximately half (50%) of its total population (~11,017 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.3% of residents) and mental health issues (8.3%). Conversely, 58.9% of residents report being free from medical ailments, slightly lower than Rest of NSW's 59.3%. The peninsula has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (36.2%, or 8,050 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 28.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Nelson Bay Peninsula are above average, outperforming the general population in various health metrics.

Nelson Bay Peninsula ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nelson Bay Peninsula's cultural diversity was below average, with 81.6% born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 58.8%, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) Scottish (8.8%) and Maltese (0.6%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.7%, 8.3% and 0.5% respectively.

Nelson Bay Peninsula ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nelson Bay Peninsula has a median age of 55 years, which is higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and the national norm of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 17.8% of the population, while those aged 25-34 make up only 7.0%. This is higher than the national average for the 65-74 age group, which stands at 9.4%. Between 2021 and now, the proportion of people aged 15-24 has increased from 8.8% to 9.9%, while those aged 5-14 have decreased from 9.8% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Nelson Bay Peninsula's age structure. The number of people aged 85 and over is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 948 people (an 87% increase) from 1,083 to 2,032. This aging trend continues as residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 73% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 55-64 and 5-14 years old.