Nelson Bay Peninsula

Nelson Bay Peninsula has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Nelson Bay Peninsula's population was 21,972 as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it is estimated to be around 22,257, reflecting a 1.3% increase since the Census. This increase is inferred from ABS data showing an ERP of 22,044 in June 2024 and an additional 125 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 468 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed around 97.9% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Nelson Bay Peninsula's population is projected to increase by approximately 1,921 persons, reflecting a total gain of around 7.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Nelson Bay Peninsula recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Nelson Bay Peninsula has recorded approximately 100 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling 504 homes. As of FY-26, 28 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.3 new residents arrive per new home constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25. This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost of new properties is $561,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment. In FY-26, commercial approvals valued at $14.4 million have been registered, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the rest of NSW, Nelson Bay Peninsula has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 51st percentile nationally. New building activity comprises 36.0% standalone homes and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 62.0% houses). This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

Nelson Bay Peninsula has a low density population, with approximately 341 people per approval. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 1,707 residents (latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Nelson Bay Peninsula has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel, Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan, The Belvedere, and Kurrara Hill. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

While Nelson Bay Peninsula retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.6%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Nelson Bay Peninsula has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.6%.

There are 8,704 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 0.2% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Nelson Bay Peninsula lags at 46.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.0% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.6%, with employment decreasing by 2.4%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, the labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest a national expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Nelson Bay Peninsula's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Nelson Bay Peninsula SA2 had a median income of $42,224 among taxpayers and an average income of $60,154 in the financial year 2022. This is below the national averages for Rest of NSW which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth suggest median income will be approximately $47,548 and average income will be around $67,739. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Nelson Bay Peninsula fall between the 18th and 19th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income analysis shows that the majority of residents, 27.2% or 6,053 people, earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually. This aligns with the regional trend where this income bracket also represents 29.9%. Housing affordability is a significant issue in Nelson Bay Peninsula, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Nelson Bay Peninsula displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Nelson Bay Peninsula, as per the latest Census findings, 62.3% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 37.6% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nelson Bay Peninsula stood at 49.0%, with mortgaged properties making up 24.4% and rented dwellings accounting for 26.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,861, surpassing Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent was recorded at $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's figure of $360. Nationally, Nelson Bay Peninsula's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Nelson Bay Peninsula has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 2.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Nelson Bay Peninsula fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.9%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 29.3%. A total of 23.2% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.1% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.2% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.1% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 2.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows 219 active public transport stops in Nelson Bay Peninsula. These are served by a mix of buses operating along 84 individual routes. The total weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes is 1,099.

Residents' accessibility to transport is rated excellent, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency across all routes averages 157 trips per day, which equates to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Nelson Bay Peninsula is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Nelson Bay Peninsula faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 50% (around 11,017 people), lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (affecting 13.3%) and mental health concerns (8.3%). About 58.9% report no medical ailments, slightly below Rest of NSW's 59.3%. The peninsula has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 36.2% (around 8,050 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 28.1%. Despite this, health outcomes for seniors are above average and better than those in the general population.

Nelson Bay Peninsula ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nelson Bay Peninsula's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.6% of its population born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Nelson Bay Peninsula, comprising 58.8% of people, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.7%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Welsh ethnicity is overrepresented at 0.8%, Scottish at 8.8%, and Maltese at 0.6%.

Nelson Bay Peninsula ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nelson Bay Peninsula's median age is 55 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and the national norm of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 17.8% of the population, compared to the national average of 9.4%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 7.0%, compared to the Rest of NSW figure. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 8.8% to 9.9% of the population, while the 5-14 cohort has declined from 9.8% to 8.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Nelson Bay Peninsula's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 948 people (an 87% growth) from 1,083 to 2,032 people. Demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 73% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 55-64 and 5-14 years.