Nelson Bay Peninsula
Statistical Area - sa2

Nelson Bay Peninsula has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Nelson Bay Peninsula's population was 21,972 as of 2021 Census. As of Nov 2025, it is around 22,257, an increase of 285 people (1.3%). This change reflects an estimated resident population of 22,044 in June 2024 and 125 new addresses validated since the Census date. The population density is 468 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 97.9% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 (base year 2021) are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the population is projected to increase by 1,921 persons, a gain of 7.7% over 17 years, approaching Australia's regional median growth rate.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Nelson Bay Peninsula recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Nelson Bay Peninsula has granted approval for approximately 100 residential properties annually over the past five financial years, totalling 504 homes. As of FY26, 24 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.3 new residents arrive per year per new home between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new properties is $561,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment.

This financial year has seen $14.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting moderate commercial development levels. Compared to the rest of NSW, Nelson Bay Peninsula has about three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 52nd percentile nationally. New building activity consists of 36.0% standalone homes and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 62.0% houses), likely due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. The area has an estimated 341 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its low activity development environment. Population growth projections indicate Nelson Bay Peninsula is expected to gain 1,707 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Nelson Bay Peninsula has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 19 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel, Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan, The Belvedere, and Kurrara Hill. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

While Nelson Bay Peninsula retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.8%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Nelson Bay Peninsula has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate as of June 2025 is 3.8%.

There are 8,690 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation stands at 46.1%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.0%, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The labour force decreased by 4.2% over a 12-month period ending June 2025, with employment decreasing by 4.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1%, the labour force grow by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Nelson Bay Peninsula's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Nelson Bay Peninsula's median income among taxpayers was $42,224 and average income was $60,154 in financial year 2022. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $47,548 and average income would be around $67,739, based on a 12.61% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Nelson Bay Peninsula rank between the 18th and 19th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income analysis shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is dominant, with 27.2% of residents (6,053 people) falling within this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Nelson Bay Peninsula displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure within Nelson Bay Peninsula, as per the latest Census, consisted of 62.3% houses and 37.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nelson Bay Peninsula stood at 49.0%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (24.4%) or rented (26.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,861, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Nelson Bay Peninsula's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Nelson Bay Peninsula features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3%, consisting of 29.9% lone person households and 2.3% group households. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Nelson Bay Peninsula fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (29.3%). A total of 23.2% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 8.1% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education.

There are 10 schools operating within Nelson Bay Peninsula, educating approximately 2,920 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 978). The educational mix includes 6 primary, 2 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nelson Bay Peninsula has 219 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 84 different routes that together facilitate 1,099 weekly passenger trips. The peninsula's residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

Across all routes, buses run approximately 157 times a day, which translates to about five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Nelson Bay Peninsula is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Nelson Bay Peninsula, with high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Approximately half (50%) of its total population (~11,017 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.3% of residents) and mental health issues (8.3%), while 58.9% report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than Rest of NSW's 59.3%. The peninsula has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 36.2% (8,050 people), compared to the state average of 28.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in key health metrics.

Nelson Bay Peninsula ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nelson Bay Peninsula's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 81.6% of its population born in Australia, 90.2% being citizens, and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Nelson Bay Peninsula, comprising 58.8% of people, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.7%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.7%, Scottish (8.8%) also exceeds the regional average of 8.3%, and Maltese (0.6%) slightly surpasses the regional figure of 0.5%.

Nelson Bay Peninsula ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nelson Bay Peninsula's median age is 55 years, which is higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and the national norm of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are prominent at 17.8%, while those aged 25-34 are smaller at 7.0%. This 65-74 concentration is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.8% to 9.9%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 9.8% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Nelson Bay Peninsula's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise substantially, increasing by 948 people (87%) from 1,083 to 2,032. Demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 73% of anticipated growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 5 to 14 cohorts.