Nelson Bay Peninsula
Statistical Area - sa2

Nelson Bay Peninsula has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Nelson Bay Peninsula's population was 21,972 as of Aug 2021. By Aug 2025, it is estimated to be around 22,220, reflecting an increase of 248 people (1.1%) since the 2021 Census. This change is inferred from the ABS's estimated resident population of 22,044 as of June 2024 and an additional 108 validated new addresses since Aug 2021. The population density is approximately 468 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed to around 97.9% of the recent population gains in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate that Nelson Bay Peninsula is expected to increase by just below the median rate of Australia's regional areas, adding approximately 1,921 persons by 2041. This would result in a total gain of 7.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Nelson Bay Peninsula recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Nelson Bay Peninsula has recorded approximately 100 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 504 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, with 14 approvals so far in FY-26. The average population growth per dwelling built over these five years has been 0.3 people annually, indicating that supply meets or exceeds demand and supports potential population growth while offering greater buyer choice. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $721,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

Commercial approvals registered this financial year amount to $14.4 million, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Rest of NSW, Nelson Bay Peninsula has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 52nd percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New building activity comprises 36.0% standalone homes and 64.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 62.0% houses). This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 341 people, reflecting its quiet development environment.

Looking ahead, Nelson Bay Peninsula is projected to grow by 1,744 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Nelson Bay Peninsula has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 19 projects likely affecting the region. Key initiatives are d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel, Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan, The Belvedere, and Kurrara Hill. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

While Nelson Bay Peninsula retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.8%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Nelson Bay Peninsula has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 3.8% as of June 2025. There are 8,690 residents employed, with the unemployment rate being 0.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation is lower at 46.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 1.0% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by Census data showing fewer working residents than expected based on population numbers. Between June 2024 and May 2025, the labour force decreased by 4.2%, employment decreased by 4.6%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1% while the labour force grew by 0.3%. State-level data from Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, and employment growth lagged behind at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Nelson Bay Peninsula's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Nelson Bay Peninsula's median income among taxpayers was $42,224 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $60,154 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimates suggest median income would be approximately $46,700 and average income around $66,530 by March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Nelson Bay Peninsula fell between the 18th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis revealed that the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominated with 27.2% of residents (6,043 people). Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Nelson Bay Peninsula displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Nelson Bay Peninsula, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, consisted of 62.3% houses and 37.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership within Nelson Bay Peninsula stood at 49.0%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (24.4%) or rented (26.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,861, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Nelson Bay Peninsula's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Nelson Bay Peninsula features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households, including 19.9% couples with children, 37.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Nelson Bay Peninsula fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common (13.5%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 29.3%.

A substantial 23.2% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.1% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 2.9% in tertiary education. There are 10 schools operating within Nelson Bay Peninsula, educating approximately 2,920 students. The area shows typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 978) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 6 primary, 2 secondary, and 2 K-12 schools. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nelson Bay Peninsula has 219 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of buses across 84 routes, offering 1,099 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 158 meters.

On average, there are 157 trips per day across all routes, which works out to about five trips per week per individual stop.

Health performance in Nelson Bay Peninsula is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Nelson Bay Peninsula faces substantial health challenges, with common conditions notably prevalent across younger and older age cohorts. Only approximately 50% (~10,998 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.3%) and mental health issues (8.3%). Meanwhile, 58.9% report having no medical ailments, similar to the Rest of NSW's 59.3%. The Peninsula has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 36.2% (8,036 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 28.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Nelson Bay Peninsula are above average and better than the general population.

Nelson Bay Peninsula ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nelson Bay Peninsula's cultural diversity was found to be below average. As of the census, 81.6% of its population were born in Australia, with 90.2% being citizens and 93.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 58.8% of people, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.6%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) Scottish (8.8%) and Maltese (0.6%) groups had higher representations compared to regional averages of 0.7%, 8.3% and 0.5% respectively.

Nelson Bay Peninsula ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nelson Bay Peninsula's median age is 55 years, which is higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and the national norm of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are prominent at 17.8%, while those aged 25-34 are comparatively smaller at 7.0%. This concentration of those aged 65-74 is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.8% to 9.9%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 9.8% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Nelson Bay Peninsula's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to rise substantially, expanding by 949 people (88%) from 1,082 to 2,032. Demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 72% of anticipated growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for those aged 55-64 and 5-14.