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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Fern Bay is $1.04m, with units at $834k. House values have moved 5.5% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Fern Bay has an estimated 4,337 residents, up from 4,046 at the 2021 Census — a change of 291 people, or 7.2%. Growth has averaged 2.7% a year over five years. Interstate and internal migration accounts for 80.0% of that increase. That puts 523 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
As of Aug 2026, the suburb of Fern Bay has an estimated population of around 4,337, according to AreaSearch evaluations combining regional ABS demographic updates with post-Census address validations. Compared to the 4,046 people recorded in the 2021 Census, this represents an expansion of 291 people (7.2%). This figure is derived from an estimated resident population of 4,330 calculated by AreaSearch following the ABS June 2025 ERP release, alongside 35 validated new addresses established post-Census. With a density of 522 persons per square kilometer, the suburb of Fern Bay offers substantial space per resident as well as scope for additional expansion.
Outpacing both the SA4 region and the Rest of NSW (5.1%), the suburb of Fern Bay's 7.2% increase establishes it as a regional growth frontrunner. While natural increases and overseas arrivals contributed positively, gains were predominantly underpinned by interstate migration, which accounted for approximately 80.0% of total population additions in recent times. Projections for the suburb of Fern Bay incorporate 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia SA2 figures based on 2022, supplemented where necessary by 2022 NSW State Government SA2 models using 2021 as a baseline, with age-cohort growth rates projected forward for 2032 to 2041. Over the 16 years leading to 2041, the suburb of Fern Bay is forecast to experience outstanding expansion that ranks within the top 10 percent of regional localities across Australia, adding 2,027 persons according to combined SA2 projections to achieve an overall increase of 46.6%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
38 new dwellings have been approved in Fern Bay over the past five years, an average of 7 a year. That places the area in the 64th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 2 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 27, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Analysis of ABS building approvals by AreaSearch indicates that Fern Bay averages approximately 7 residential approvals each year, with 27 registered during FY-25 to date and an estimated 38 homes sanctioned across the previous 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25). Demand continues to substantially outstrip new construction, averaging 12 incoming residents annually for each newly built residence over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), a dynamic that typically fuels price expansion and heightened buyer competition. New dwelling construction costs average $356,000, sitting below regional benchmarks to provide relatively attainable housing options, while $768,000 in approved commercial works this financial year underlines an overwhelmingly residential development environment.
Residential building volumes in Fern Bay sit 59.0% below regional average per person compared to the Rest of NSW, reflecting a subdued construction rate indicative of market maturity and possible planning constraints, despite a recent pickup in activity. This constrained level of new supply typically supports property values and demand across established homes. Low-density detached houses comprise 78.0% of new residential development, with attached dwellings making up 22.0%, catering to family buyers in search of space. This composition represents a noticeable shift from the existing housing stock of 98.0% houses, catering to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs amid limited development site availability, with a ratio of around 239 people per approval pointing to an evolving market landscape. Based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly estimate, long-term projections indicate that Fern Bay will add 2,020 residents through to 2041. Should current construction rates persist, local dwelling supply could face challenges keeping pace with incoming population, potentially intensifying buyer competition and placing upward pressure on home values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Fern Bay
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 7 current infrastructure and development projects inside Fern Bay, worth an estimated $38 million. A further 49 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $71 billion. 15 are already under construction and 17 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and education & training. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure investment and strategic project planning serve as critical catalysts for regional development and demand. AreaSearch has highlighted 10 significant projects expected to influence the community, prominently featuring the Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, Rifle Range, Fern Bay, Stockton Beach Repair Project, and Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre
A new B1 Neighbourhood Centre featuring a 3,800sqm full-line Woolworths supermarket and a BWS liquor store. The development includes approximately 2,500sqm of specialty retail space, a medical centre, and over 300 car parking spaces. The project is designed to serve the growing residential communities of Fullerton Cove and Fern Bay while adhering to a 9-metre height limit and preserving surrounding environmental conservation zones.
Bayway Village
An over 50s land lease community with resort-style facilities and a variety of social activities, offering modern, low-maintenance homes for relaxed coastal living. The village is pet-friendly and features a new indoor pool, gym, bowling green, and community hall.
Rifle Range, Fern Bay
A coastal residential redevelopment of the former Stockton Rifle Range featuring 232 land lots, a 1.5-hectare central park, and scenic walkways linking to Stockton Beach and local bushland. The masterplan includes 97 service residences for Defence families and 135 lots for the public. The project incorporates heritage stabilization of a former Anti-Aircraft Battery and extensive environmental conservation zones covering approximately 50% of the 105-hectare site.
Fern Bay and North Stockton Strategy
A joint 20-year land use strategy led by Port Stephens Council and the City of Newcastle to guide future growth across Fern Bay, North Stockton and Fullerton Cove. The strategy supports a mixed-use town centre, diverse housing, open space, active transport, improved road and public transport links, and coordinated precinct planning. Implementation is progressing through individual planning proposals and development applications, including the Defence Housing Australia Rifle Range redevelopment and the approved Fullerton Cove neighbourhood shopping centre.
Retirement Community At Newcastle Golf Club
The seniors housing design includes three buildings with 125 serviced self-care apartments, 47 villas, 337 carparks, and a community centre with cinema and gym at the Newcastle Golf Club.
Seaside at Fern Bay
A masterplanned coastal community of approximately 1000 lots, featuring a mix of residential housing, community facilities, and environmental protection areas.
Four Anchors
Townhouse development offering generous sized blocks with wide street frontage, some overlooking a bush reserve. The project is sold out. It was developed by Mavid Group.
Stockton Centre Repurposing
Repurposing the former Stockton Centre to provide transitional housing for vulnerable families. The upgraded site will offer short-term accommodation for up to 25 people per night.
1,779 residents of Fern Bay are employed, from a labour force of 1,848. Unemployment sits at 3.7%, with participation at 53.0%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.5% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 3,533, about 81% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Workforce data aggregated by AreaSearch reveals that Fern Bay possesses a skilled labour pool with prominent representation in essential service industries and a low jobless rate of 3.7%. As of March 2026, 1,779 residents are employed, and the local unemployment level sits 0.4% below Regional NSW's rate of 4.1%, whereas labour force participation is notably lower at 53.0% against 60.6% across Regional NSW. Census findings showed 31.5% of workers operating from home, though this figure reflects the influence of Covid-19 restrictions. Resident employment is concentrated primarily in public administration & safety, health care & social assistance, and education & training.
Public administration & safety stands out with a local concentration reaching 2.1 times the regional average, whereas agriculture, forestry & fishing accounts for only 0.8% of the local workforce, well underneath the 5.3% recorded across Regional NSW. A comparison between the resident headcount and the Census working population highlights a relatively modest base of local employment opportunities within the immediate boundary. During the year to March 2026, AreaSearch analysis of ABS and SALM figures indicates that Fern Bay's labour force contracted by 1.3% while local employment fell by 2.8%, leading to an unemployment rate rise by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.9%, a labour force decline of 0.4%, and an unemployment rise of 0.5 percentage points. Looking ahead, national forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 project nationwide employment expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though sector-specific trajectories diverge. When weighted against Fern Bay's existing industry distribution, projected local employment expands by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, noting this illustrative extrapolation excludes localized population forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Fern Bay is $1,435 a week (about $75,000 a year), with median personal income at $735 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $58,273 a year against an average of $70,705. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
According to the latest ATO postcode statistics published by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, taxpayers in the suburb of Fern Bay recorded a median income of $58,273 and an average of $70,705, outperforming both the national benchmark and Regional NSW figures of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average). Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023 brings estimated earnings to approximately $64,287 for the median and $78,002 for the average as of March 2026. Across personal, family, and household levels, Census earnings sit modestly between the 31st and 35th percentiles.
The primary income bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, capturing 27.4% of residents (1,188 people), closely matching the 29.9% observed regionally. The community displays income diversity, with 30.3% facing tighter financial circumstances alongside 20.9% earning upper-tier weekly incomes. Housing affordability remains constrained, with 81.1% of income remaining to place the area in the 27th percentile, while its SEIFA income score falls in the 6th decile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Fern Bay had 1,641 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 98% detached houses and 0% apartments. 27% are owned with a mortgage, 25% rented and 48% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $510 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,299 a month. Rent absorbs 35.5% of household income here and mortgage repayments 37.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
According to recent Census findings, standalone houses made up 98.2% of dwellings in Fern Bay, with 1.8% categorized as other dwellings (including semi-detached properties and apartments), contrasting with Regional NSW's breakdown of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Outright home ownership reached 47.9%, substantially exceeding regional levels, while mortgaged residences accounted for 27.2% and rented properties 24.9%. Financial commitments for housing are elevated, with median monthly mortgage payments reaching $2,299 and median weekly rents at $510, compared to Regional NSW averages of $1,733 and $330, and national benchmarks of $1,863 for mortgages and $375 for rents.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Fern Bay counted 1,641 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 1,759 today, averaging 2.4 people each. 28% are couples with children, against 33% couples without children. 30% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family units make up 68.5% of households, led by couples without children at 33.0%, couples with children at 27.7%, and single parent families representing 7.1%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 31.5%, comprising 29.9% lone person households and 1.8% group households. The median household occupancy stands at 2.4 people, precisely mirroring the Regional NSW benchmark.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
22.8% of adults in Fern Bay hold a university qualification, including 15.1% with a bachelor degree and 5.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 28.6% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 167 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 992 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Educational attainment levels among Fern Bay residents aged 15+ sit below state averages, with 22.8% possessing university qualifications relative to 32.2% across NSW. Bachelor degrees represent the largest proportion at 15.1%, with postgraduate qualifications held by 5.1% and graduate diplomas by 2.6%. Vocational education is strongly represented, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of 28.6% with certificates and 11.2% with advanced diplomas. Formal learning engagement is substantial across the community, with 28.0% of residents actively undertaking study. This cohort comprises 11.4% attending primary school, 6.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% enrolled in tertiary institutions.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Fern Bay reaches 20 stops on 35 routes, timetabled for about 710 services a week. The typical home sits about 230 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.3 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport connectivity in Fern Bay is supported by 20 active bus stops across 35 individual routes, combining to deliver 705 weekly passenger trips. Network access is favorable, with residents generally located 234 meters from their closest stop. Given the suburb's residential nature, outbound commuting predominates, with private vehicles accounting for 98% of transport choices. Households maintain an average of 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional figure, while 31.5% of workers operated from home at the 2021 Census during COVID-19 conditions. Public transport schedules deliver an average of 100 trips per day across the network, translating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
60.5% of residents in Fern Bay report no long-term health condition. 7.4% need daily assistance with core activities, and 54.9% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.0 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
AreaSearch evaluations of chronic condition incidence and mortality rates point to below-average overall health metrics in Fern Bay. Common health conditions align closely with general norms across the total population but become elevated among older age groups compared to nationwide levels, while private health insurance uptake is comparatively strong at approximately 55% of the total population (~2,380 people), exceeding the 51.9% recorded across Regional NSW. Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent diagnosed ailments locally, recorded among 11.7 and 8.8% of residents, while 60.5% reported no long-term medical conditions compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW.
Chronic conditions are elevated among working-age individuals. Seniors aged 65 and over constitute 30.2% of the local population (1,309 people), higher than the 23.3% share across Regional NSW, with older cohorts experiencing some health challenges despite ranking more favorably nationally than the wider community profile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Fern Bay is largely Australian-born, at 87.5% of residents, with 4.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (31.9%) and Australian (29.9%). 3.7% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures in Fern Bay sit beneath broader averages, with Australian-born residents accounting for 87.5% of the population, Australian citizens comprising 91.6%, and 95.2% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the predominant religious affiliation, representing 57.5% of the community compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The primary reported parental ancestries across Fern Bay are English at 31.9%, Australian at 29.9%, and Irish at 9.0%. Other distinct demographic concentrations include Welsh ancestry at 1.3% (compared to 0.5% regionally), Russian at 0.4% (vs 0.2%), and Macedonian at 0.3% (vs 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Fern Bay is 42. That is 1 year younger than at the 2021 Census. 20.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Demographic patterns show that Fern Bay has an older population structure than Regional NSW, with seniors aged 65+ making up 30.2% of the population as at August 2026 against 23.3% regionally, while the 45 - 64 age group accounts for 15.4% compared to 23.8% across Regional NSW. The estimated median age is 42 as at August 2026, dropping from 43 at the 2021 Census and sitting 1 year below the Regional NSW median of 43 recorded in the same Census. Since the Census, the share of middle aged and young retiree residents declined from 18.1% to an estimated 15.4%.
Within the senior bands, the 65 to 74 demographic dropped from 17.3% to an estimated 15.1%, while the 75 to 84 cohort expanded from 10.3% to 12.6% as residents age without corresponding replenishment from younger families. By 2041, senior age groups are projected to absorb most demographic expansion, adding 644 residents (49%) to total 1,954.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Fern Bay
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 2 months ago all 7 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 35 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (4,046 at the 2021 Census → 4,337 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL11504). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.