Fern Bay

Fern Bay lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, Fern Bay's population is estimated at around 4,317, reflecting an increase of 271 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,046. This increase, inferred from AreaSearch validation and latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), results in a population density ratio of 520 persons per square kilometer. Fern Bay's growth rate of 6.7% since the 2021 Census exceeded Rest of NSW's 5.9%, marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 80.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041.

By 2041, Fern Bay is predicted to expand by 2,184 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 49.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Fern Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Fern Bay averaged approximately 28 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. This totals an estimated 140 homes. As of FY-26, six approvals have been recorded. On average, 4.2 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built during this period.

This indicates that demand significantly exceeds new supply, which typically results in price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction value of new properties is $551,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, there have been $768,000 in commercial approvals, predominantly focused on residential development.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Fern Bay shows moderately higher building activity, with 25.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. New building activity consists of 90.0% detached dwellings and 10.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. Fern Bay reflects a low-density area with around 81 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Fern Bay is projected to add 2,134 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Fern Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects that may impact this region. Notable projects include Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, Rifle Range, Fern Bay, Stockton Beach Repair Project, and another Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre project. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Fern Bay has been broadly consistent with national averages

Fern Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.1% as of December 2025. This rate is 0.9% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Fern Bay is somewhat below the regional average, at 56.5% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 31.5% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, at 0.8% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 0.3%, while labour force increased by 1.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest Fern Bay's employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Fern Bay's employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023 indicates Fern Bay's median income among taxpayers is $58,273 with an average of $70,705. This is above the national average and compares to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $63,436 (median) and $76,969 (average) as of September 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes rank modestly in Fern Bay, between the 31st and 35th percentiles. Income distribution shows the largest segment comprises 27.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,182 residents), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Income distribution demonstrates clear polarization - 30.3% in lower brackets (<$800/week) alongside 20.9% in higher brackets (>$3,000/week). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 27th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Fern Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fern Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.2% houses and 1.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fern Bay stood at 47.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.2% and rented ones at 24.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,299, exceeding the Regional NSW average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Fern Bay was $510, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Fern Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,299 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Fern Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 68.5% of all households, including 27.7% couples with children, 33.0% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.5%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the Regional NSW average.

Educational attainment in Fern Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Fern Bay's residents aged 15+ have 22.8% university degree holders, compared to NSW's 32.2%, indicating potential for educational development. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.8% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (28.6%). Educational participation is high at 28.0%, with 11.4% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fern Bay has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 36 different routes that together facilitate 725 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average living 234 meters from the nearest stop. Most Fern Bay residents commute outwards, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 98%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 31.5%, work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 103 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 36 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Fern Bay are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Fern Bay's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average in older cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 55% of the total population (~2,369 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7 and 8.8% of residents respectively, while 60.5% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 28.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,226 people), higher than Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Fern Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fern Bay was found to have a cultural diversity below the average, with 87.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Fern Bay is Christianity, comprising 57.5% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups in Fern Bay are English (31.9%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh (1.3%) and Russian (0.4%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Macedonian population is slightly underrepresented at 0.3%, compared to the regional average of 0.4%.

Fern Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Fern Bay's median age is 42 years, comparable to Regional NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile reveals that those aged 75-84 are notably prominent, comprising 11.4% of the population, while the 55-64 group constitutes only 6.9%. This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 6.1%. Between 2021 and the present, Fern Bay's median age has decreased by 1.1 years to 42 from its previous figure of 43. During this period, notable shifts include an increase in the 15-24 age group from 7.8% to 10.1%, and a rise in the 35-44 cohort from 13.5% to 14.9%. Conversely, the 55-64 group has decreased from 9.6% to 6.9%, and the 65-74 age group has fallen from 17.3% to 14.9%. By 2041, Fern Bay's population is projected to undergo substantial demographic changes, with the 25-34 cohort expected to grow significantly by 66%, adding 320 residents to reach a total of 804.