Fern Bay

Fern Bay lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Fern Bay statistical area (Lv2) is around 4,315 people. This represents an increase of 269 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,046 people in Fern Bay. The current population reflects an analysis of ABS updates and AreaSearch validations, including an estimated resident population of 4,267 based on ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024, along with additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 519 persons per square kilometer. The Fern Bay (SA2) has experienced significant growth since the 2021 Census, with a growth rate of 6.6%. This exceeds the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%, making Fern Bay a growth leader in its region.

Interstate migration contributed approximately 80% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all demographic factors such as overseas migration and natural growth were positive. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the Fern Bay (SA2) is predicted to experience exceptional growth over the period leading up to 2041. The area is expected to expand by approximately 2,333 persons by that year, reflecting a gain of around 55.9% in total population over the 17-year span.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Fern Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Fern Bay averaged approximately 28 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling an estimated 142 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 5 approvals recorded. This shows an average of 4.1 people moving to the area per year for each dwelling built over these five years, indicating demand significantly exceeds new supply. The average construction cost value of new properties is $551,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In FY-26, there have been $768,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of NSW, Fern Bay exhibits moderately higher building activity, at 24.0% above the regional average per person over this period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. New building activity comprises approximately 90.0% detached dwellings and 10.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

Fern Bay reflects a developing area with around 80 people per approval. Latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate projects Fern Bay to add approximately 2,412 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Fern Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely to affect the region. Notable ones include Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, Rifle Range, Fern Bay, Stockton Beach Repair Project, and Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Fern Bay exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Fern Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.3%.

As of September 2025, 1,894 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 1.2% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 50.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area showed strong specialization in public administration & safety with an employment share of 2.1 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 0.8% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.3%, while labour force increased by 3.7%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fern Bay's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Fern Bay's median income among taxpayers is $58,273. The average income in the suburb is $70,705. Both figures are above the national average. Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest Fern Bay's median income is approximately $63,436 as of September 2025, with the average being around $76,969. The 2021 Census shows household, family and personal incomes in Fern Bay rank modestly, between the 31st and 35th percentiles. Income distribution data reveals that 27.4% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort represents 29.9%. The income distribution is polarized, with 30.3% in lower brackets (<$800/week) and 20.9% in higher brackets (>$3,000/week). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 27th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Fern Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fern Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.2% houses and 1.8% other dwellings. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fern Bay was 47.9%, with mortgaged properties at 27.2% and rented ones at 24.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,299, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,962. Median weekly rent in Fern Bay was $510, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $400. Nationally, Fern Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,299 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Fern Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 68.5% of all households, including 27.7% couples with children, 33.0% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.5%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Educational attainment in Fern Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Fern Bay's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks; 22.8% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to NSW's 32.2%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (28.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fern Bay has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 36 different routes that together facilitate 725 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as good, with residents being an average of 234 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 103 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Fern Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Fern Bay faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents.

Approximately 55% (~2,368 people) have private health cover, which is relatively high. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.7%) and mental health issues (8.8%). Conversely, 60.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 64.9% in the rest of NSW. Fern Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.2% (1,216 people), compared to 16.7% in the rest of NSW. The health outcomes among seniors largely align with those of the general population.

Fern Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fern Bay's population showed low cultural diversity, with 87.5% born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 57.5%, compared to 47.7% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.9%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh (1.3%) and Russian (0.4%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.8% and 0.2%, respectively. Macedonian representation was lower at 0.3% than the regional average of 0.8%.

Fern Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Fern Bay's median age in 2021 was 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile showed that those aged 75-84 were particularly prominent at 11.1%, while the 55-64 group was smaller at 7.3% compared to Rest of NSW. This concentration of 75-84 year-olds was higher than the national average of 6.0%. Between 2021 and the present, Fern Bay's median age has decreased by 1 year to 42 from its previous figure of 43. During this period, the 15-24 age group grew from 7.8% to 9.7%, while the 65-74 cohort declined from 17.3% to 15.0% and the 55-64 group dropped from 9.6% to 7.3%. Population forecasts for Fern Bay in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 age cohort at 75%, adding 353 residents to reach a total of 824.