Fern Bay

Fern Bay lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Fern Bay as of May 2026 is around 4,339. This reflects an increase of 293 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,046. The change was inferred from the resident population of 4,332 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 522 persons per square kilometer. Fern Bay's growth rate of 7.2% since the 2021 census exceeded that of both Rest of NSW (4.9%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the area. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the suburb of Fern Bay expected to expand by 2,050 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 47.1% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Fern Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Fern Bay averaged approximately 28 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 140 homes. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. On average, 5 people moved to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating demand significantly exceeds new supply. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $551,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

Commercial approvals in FY-26 totalled $768,000, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of NSW, Fern Bay shows moderately higher building activity, 23.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

New building activity comprises 90.0% detached dwellings and 10.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. Fern Bay reflects a developing area, with around 79 people per approval. Future projections estimate Fern Bay will add approximately 2,043 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Fern Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified ten projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, Rifle Range, Fern Bay, Stockton Beach Repair Project, and Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre again. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.3%, Fern Bay has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Fern Bay has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%. Employment stability over the past year is relatively high.

As of December 2025, 1,811 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Fern Bay lags at 54.2%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. A high proportion of residents, 31.5%, work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training.

The area has a particular employment specialization in public administration & safety, with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.8%, compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.9% while employment decreased by 0.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW where employment fell by 1.2%, labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Fern Bay. Applying these projections to Fern Bay's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Fern Bay's median income among taxpayers is $58,273 with an average of $70,705. This is above the national average and compares to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Fern Bay would be approximately $64,287 (median) and $78,002 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Fern Bay rank modestly between the 31st and 35th percentiles. Income distribution shows the largest segment comprises 27.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,188 residents), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Income distribution demonstrates clear polarization - 30.3% in lower brackets (<$800/week) alongside 20.9% in higher brackets (>$3,000/week). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.1% of income remaining, ranking at the 27th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Fern Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fern Bay's dwellings were 98.2% houses and 1.8% other types at the latest Census. This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fern Bay was 47.9%, with mortgaged properties at 27.2% and rented ones at 24.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,299, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Fern Bay was $510, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Fern Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,299 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Fern Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 68.5% of all households, including 27.7% couples with children, 33.0% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.5%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households making up 1.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, aligning with the Regional NSW average.

Educational attainment in Fern Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Fern Bay's residents aged 15+ have educational qualifications that trail regional benchmarks, with 22.8% holding university degrees compared to NSW's 32.2%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common (15.1%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 28.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.0% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fern Bay has 20 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 36 different routes that collectively facilitate 725 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living 234 meters from the nearest stop. As Fern Bay is primarily residential, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 98% of residents. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 31.5% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 103 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Fern Bay are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Fern Bay's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is fairly high at approximately 55% of the total population (around 2,381 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7 and 8.8% of residents respectively, while 60.5% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 29.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,262 people), higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Fern Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fern Bay, surveyed in August 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 87.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 57.5%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's 55.9%. Ancestry wise, English (31.9%) and Australian (29.9%) were the top groups, followed by Irish (9.0%).

Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Welsh at 1.3% in Fern Bay versus 0.5% regionally, Russian at 0.4% versus 0.2%, and Macedonian at 0.3% versus 0.4%.

Fern Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Fern Bay's median age is 42, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but considerably older than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile indicates that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent at 11.9%, while the 55-64 group comprises 7.1% of the population, which is smaller compared to Regional NSW. This concentration of individuals aged 75-84 is well above the national average of 6.1%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has grown from 7.8% to 10.2%, while those aged 75-84 increased from 10.3% to 11.9%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 9.6% to 7.1%, and the 65-74 group decreased from 17.3% to 15.0%. Population forecasts for Fern Bay in 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes, with the strongest projected growth occurring in the 75-84 cohort at 61%, adding 314 residents to reach a total of 831 individuals in this age group.