Fern Bay

Fern Bay lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Fern Bay's population is estimated at around 164,094 people. This reflects an increase of 50,730 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 113,364 people. The change was inferred from the resident population of 4,319 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 38 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 19,770 persons per square kilometer, placing Fern Bay in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Fern Bay's growth of 44.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (5.5%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with Fern Bay expected to increase by 78,188 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 81.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Fern Bay was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Fern Bay averaged approximately 2040 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 10204 homes were approved, with an additional 438 so far in FY-26. This results in about 5.7 people moving to the area per dwelling built over the past five financial years.

Demand significantly outpaces supply, potentially driving up prices and increasing buyer competition. The average construction value of new homes is approximately $1066000, indicating a focus on premium market developments. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $136.8 million. Fern Bay has 532% more construction activity per person compared to Greater Sydney, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprises 75% standalone homes and 25% attached dwellings, maintaining Fern Bay's suburban nature. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix of 175% houses, likely due to reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands.

The location has around 88 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. However, population projections indicate stability or decline, which may reduce future housing demand pressures and benefit potential buyers.

Fern Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects expected to impact the region. Notable projects include Rifle Range, Fern Bay, Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, Stockton Beach Repair Project, and Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Fern Bay places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Fern Bay has an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.6%, with estimated employment growth of 2.1% over the past year.

As of June 2025, 42,734 residents are employed, which is 0.6% below Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Fern Bay is high at 144.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and professional & technical services, with a significant concentration in construction (2.9 times the regional average).

Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Fern Bay's employment increased by 2.1% while labour force grew by 3.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, labour force grow by 2.9%, and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest Fern Bay's employment could increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Fern Bay's employment mix.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Fern Bay's median income is $131,256 and average income is $161,202. This compares to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $147,807 (median) and $181,530 (average). The 2021 Census ranks Fern Bay's household incomes at the 196th percentile ($5,928 weekly). Distribution data shows 60.8% of residents earn over $4,000 weekly (99,769 people), contrasting with Greater Sydney where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. High earnings mean 98.6% of households have weekly incomes exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. However, high housing costs consume 64.8% of income. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 194th percentile and Fern Bay's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 18th decile.

Fern Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fern Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 175.4% houses and 24.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 70.5% houses and 29.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fern Bay was at 43.2%, with the remainder being mortgaged (113.0%) or rented (43.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $6,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $1,962 and significantly above the Australian average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Fern Bay was $1,200, substantially higher than the national figure of $375 but lower than Sydney metro's $400.

Fern Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 177.4% of all households, including 116.0% couples with children, 41.8% couples without children, and 18.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for -77.4%, consisting of 20.2% lone person households and 2.4% group households. The median household size is 6.6 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.4.

Fern Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Fern Bay's educational attainment is notably high: 76.2% of residents aged 15+ have university qualifications, compared to 26.1% in the SA4 region and 30.4% nationally (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2021). Bachelor degrees are most common at 50.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (21.6%) and graduate diplomas (4.6%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent: 61.8% of residents aged 15+ hold such qualifications, with advanced diplomas comprising 23.6% and certificates making up 38.2%. Educational participation is high, with 67.8% currently enrolled in formal education: 25.4% in primary, 18.0% in secondary, and 10.8% in tertiary education (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2021).

Fern Bay Public School serves the local community, enrolling 167 students as of 2021, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 992) offering balanced educational opportunities. The area functions as an education hub, providing 28.1 school places per 100 residents – significantly higher than the regional average of 15.5 – and attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fern Bay has 902 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 364 unique routes that together facilitate 23,338 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as moderate, with residents typically located 428 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 3,334 daily trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 25 weekly trips per individual stop.

Fern Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Fern Bay's health outcomes data shows excellent results across all age groups with a very low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 121%, covering 198,980 people in total, compared to Greater Sydney's 55.6%. Nationally, the average stands at 55.3%.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most common conditions, affecting 12.0% and 9.8% of residents respectively. Notably, 159.0% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 64.9%. Fern Bay has a larger senior population at 19.0%, or 31,177 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 16.7%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

Fern Bay is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Fern Bay has a population where 72.8% were born overseas, with 69.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Fern Bay, comprising 110.0% of its population. Hinduism is notably overrepresented, making up 17.0%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 1.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (40.0%), English (37.4%), and Other (30.8%). These percentages are substantially higher than their respective regional averages: Australian at 27.5%, English at 29.6%, and Other at 6.4%. Some ethnic groups with notable overrepresentation in Fern Bay include Maltese (5.8% vs regional 0.2%), Indian (14.4% vs regional 0.9%), and Filipino (7.0% vs regional 0.7%).

Fern Bay's population is younger than the national pattern

Fern Bay's median age is 68 years, which is considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Fern Bay has a higher concentration of residents aged 35-44 (40.6%) but fewer individuals aged 85+ (1.7%). This concentration of 35-44-year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 36.4% to 40.6%, while the percentage of those aged 25 to 34 has decreased from 25.0% to 21.3%. The proportion of children aged 0 to 4 has also dropped, from 15.6% to 13.6%. By 2041, Fern Bay's age composition is expected to shift significantly. The number of individuals aged 85+ is projected to increase by 527 people (19%), from 2,822 to 3,350. Notably, the combined age groups of 65+ will account for 100% of Fern Bay's total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. However, both the 75-84 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.