Fern Bay

Fern Bay lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, Fern Bay's population is estimated at around 4,317, reflecting a growth of 271 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 6.7% rise from the previous census figure of 4,046 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of Fern Bay's resident population at 4,267 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024) and an additional 37 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 520 persons per square kilometer. Fern Bay's growth rate exceeded that of Rest of NSW, which was 5.9%, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 80% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Fern Bay is predicted to grow by 2,332 persons, reflecting a total gain of 56% over the 17-year period, placing it in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas for exceptional growth.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Fern Bay among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Fern Bay averaged approximately 28 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 142 homes. As of FY-26, five approvals have been recorded. The area has seen an average of 4.1 people moving in per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting demand significantly exceeds new supply. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $551,000, indicating developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

This financial year has seen $768,000 in commercial approvals, predominantly focused on residential development. Compared to Rest of NSW, Fern Bay shows moderately higher building activity, 24.0% above regional average per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. New building activity comprises 90.0% detached dwellings and 10.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

Fern Bay reflects a low-density area with around 80 people per approval. Future projections estimate Fern Bay to add 2,416 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Fern Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 10 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, Rifle Range, Fern Bay, Stockton Beach Repair Project, and Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Fern Bay exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Fern Bay's workforce is skilled with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.6% as of September 2025, lower than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.1%.

As of September 2025, 1,876 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 1.2% below the regional average. Workforce participation was somewhat lower at 57.6%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Census responses indicated that 31.5% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries in Fern Bay were health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training.

The area showed strong specialization in public administration & safety with an employment share 2.1 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 0.8% compared to the regional 5.3%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.1%, while labour force grew by 3.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, published in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Fern Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years. These projections are illustrative extrapolations based on national trends and do not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest data released on June 15, 2023, Fern Bay's median income among taxpayers is $58,273. The average income in the suburb is $70,705. Both figures are above the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Fern Bay would be approximately $63,436 (median) and $76,969 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Fern Bay rank modestly, between the 31st and 35th percentiles. Income distribution data shows that the largest segment comprises 27.4% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,182 residents), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. The income distribution demonstrates clear polarization, with 30.3% in lower brackets (<$800/week) and 20.9% in higher brackets (>$3,000/week). Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.1% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 27th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Fern Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Fern Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.2% houses and 1.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Fern Bay stood at 47.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.2% and rented ones at 24.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,299, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Fern Bay was $510, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Fern Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,299 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Fern Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 68.5% of all households, including 27.7% couples with children, 33.0% couples without children, and 7.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.5%, with lone person households at 29.9% and group households comprising 1.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of NSW.

Educational attainment in Fern Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Fern Bay trail regional benchmarks, with 22.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the state average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (28.6%). Educational participation is high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (11.4%), secondary (6.4%), and tertiary (3.8%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Fern Bay has 20 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 36 different routes that together facilitate 725 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically living just 234 meters away from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily due to Fern Bay being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 98% of residents. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, at 31.5%, work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 103 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 36 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Fern Bay are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Fern Bay's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Approximately 55% (~2,369 people) have private health cover, compared to Rest of NSW's 51.9%. The most common conditions are arthritis (11.7%) and mental health issues (8.8%). 60.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age residents show above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. Fern Bay has 28.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,208 people), higher than Rest of NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Fern Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Fern Bay has a lower cultural diversity, with 87.5% born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 57.5%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (31.9%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Welsh (1.3%) is overrepresented in Fern Bay versus the regional average of 0.5%. Similarly, Russian (0.4%) and Macedonian (0.3%) have higher representation than their respective regional averages of 0.2% and 0.4%.

Fern Bay hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Fern Bay's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile reveals that those aged 75-84 are particularly prominent at 11.2%, while the 55-64 group is smaller at 7.0% compared to Rest of NSW. This concentration of 75-84 year-olds is higher than the national average of 6.1%. Since 2021, Fern Bay has become younger, with its median age dropping from 43 years to 42 years. Key changes include the growth of the 15 to 24 age group from 7.8% to 10.0%, and the increase of the 35 to 44 cohort from 13.5% to 14.7%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 17.3% to 14.7%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 9.6% to 7.0%. Population forecasts for Fern Bay indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041, with the 25 to 34 cohort projected to grow by 74%, adding 351 residents to reach a total of 826.