Fern Bay

Suburb (SAL)

Rest of NSW / Newcastle

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Data Sources ABSValuer GeneralRental BoardACARA Newest Aug 2026 · Refreshed ABS QuickStats SAL11504 How we calculate this
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Suburb (SAL) Boundary Analysis

This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.

SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.

Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.

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Sales ActivityProperty Sales Trends in Fern Bay

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The median house price in Fern Bay is $1.01m, with units at $815k. House values have moved 4.9% a year compounded over five years.

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DemographicsPopulation Growth in Fern Bay

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Fern Bay has an estimated 4,339 residents, up from 4,046 at the 2021 Census — a change of 293 people, or 7.2%. Growth has averaged 2.7% a year over five years. Interstate and internal migration accounts for 80.0% of that increase. That puts 523 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.

Detail

Determined from an evaluation of ABS population updates for the wider region and new address listings validated by AreaSearch since the Census, the suburb of Fern Bay is home to approximately 4,339 people as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 293 residents (7.2%) relative to the 2021 Census, which registered a population of 4,046 individuals. The estimate is derived from a resident headcount of 4,332 calculated by AreaSearch using the ABS's June 2025 ERP data release, combined with 37 validated new addresses identified since the Census date. This population size results in a density ratio of 522 persons per square kilometer, indicating low congestion and scope for future expansion.

The suburb of Fern Bay's 7.2% growth rate since the 2021 census outperformed the Rest of NSW (4.9%) and the local SA4 region, establishing it as a frontrunner for expansion in the district. This population growth was chiefly fueled by interstate migration, which accounted for approximately 80.0% of recent population gains, though other contributors such as overseas migration and natural growth also registered positive values. AreaSearch incorporates ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for individual SA2 regions released in 2024 with a 2022 baseline. For areas where these are unavailable, projections at the SA2 level from the NSW State Government's 2022 release with a 2021 baseline are substituted. Projected growth rates by age group from these sources are likewise applied to all locations for the period 2032 to 2041. Anticipated demographic shifts suggest the suburb of Fern Bay will experience exceptional expansion, ranking in the top 10 percent of non-metropolitan areas nationwide, with the population projected to grow by 2,050 persons to 2041 under aggregated SA2-level estimates, yielding a total gain of 47.1% over the 16 years.

Frequently Asked Questions - Population

What is the latest population estimate for the suburb of Fern Bay?
Total population for the suburb of Fern Bay was estimated to be approximately 4,339 as at May 26. This is based upon an estimated resident population of 4,332 from the ABS up to June 2025.
How has the population in the suburb of Fern Bay changed since 2021?
The suburb of fern bay has added approximately 293 people and shown a 7.24% increase from the 4,046 people recorded at the 2021 Census period.
What is the population density in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The population density in the suburb of Fern Bay is estimated at 522 persons per square kilometer based on the latest population estimate.
How much has the population grown over the past 10 years in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Over the past 10 years, the population in the suburb of Fern Bay has shown a compound annual growth rate of 5.3% per annum.
What are the main drivers of population growth in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Population growth in the suburb of Fern Bay is driven by: Interstate migration (80.0%), Overseas migration (20.0%), Natural increase (1.0%). The primary driver is Interstate migration, contributing 80.0% of overall population gains.

Residential SupplyHousing Development & Building Approvals in Fern Bay

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67 new dwellings have been approved in Fern Bay over the past five years, an average of 13 a year. That places the area in the 69th percentile for residential development activity nationally, about 3 approvals per 1,000 residents a year. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 29, running ahead of that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.

Detail

According to AreaSearch's evaluation of building approvals from the ABS, mapped from local statistical areas, Fern Bay averages approximately 13 residential building approvals annually, with an estimated total of 67 dwellings approved during the past 5 financial years. In the current period of FY-26, 27 approvals have been logged to date. With an average of 8.1 new residents entering the area for every home constructed over the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), demand is outstripping new supply, which typically drives up prices and intensifies buyer competition. The average value of these new approvals stands at $551,000, indicating developer interest in the higher-end residential market.

Furthermore, commercial approvals of $768,000 have been logged this financial year, confirming that the local construction focus remains heavily residential. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Fern Bay registers roughly 60% of the per capita construction volume, positioning it in the 64th percentile of all localities evaluated across the country, despite a recent uptick in building activity. This level of activity is below the national average, pointing to a mature urban environment or potential planning restrictions. Recent building approvals are split between 82.0% detached houses and 18.0% townhouses or multi-unit dwellings, sustaining the suburban low-density profile suited to families. This represents a notable shift from the established housing stock (presently 98.0% houses), reflecting a decrease in available building plots alongside changing buyer preferences and budget considerations. With a ratio of approximately 227 people per residential approval, Fern Bay represents an emerging development market. Long-term projections indicate that the suburb of Fern Bay is on track to add 2,043 residents by 2041, based on the most recent quarterly projections from AreaSearch. If current building rates persist, the supply of new housing may fail to keep pace with this influx, potentially escalating buyer competition and reinforcing upward pressure on prices.

Frequently Asked Questions - Development

How many dwelling approvals have occurred in the suburb of Fern Bay recently?
Dwelling approval activity in the the suburb of Fern Bay area has seen 38 residential approvals over the past two financial years, based on AreaSearch's SA2 aggregation method. The suburb of Fern Bay's current population of 4,339 has been supported by 13 approvals on average over recent years.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay's development activity compare to the broader region?
The suburb of Fern Bay has seen 0.33 approvals per 100 people in recent years, compared to 0.58 approvals in the broader region. This means that one dwelling has been approved for every 226 people in the suburb of Fern Bay, compared to one for every 192 in the broader region.
Is the suburb of Fern Bay keeping up with housing demand?
With the population expected to increase by 2,043 people by 2041, around 1,022 new dwellings will be necessary. Recent approval levels may be insufficient to meet these forecasts, considering the census average of 2.0 persons per dwelling. This indicates potential housing shortages if current approval trends continue.
What has been the trend in development approvals over the past five years in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Looking at development activity over the past five years, the suburb of Fern Bay's approval levels have been significantly above the yearly average of 13, indicating strong recent growth in development activity.
How many dwellings will be needed to accommodate future population growth in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The population in the suburb of Fern Bay is expected to grow by 2,043 people by 2041, necessitating approximately 1,022 new dwellings. This calculation is based on the current census average of 2.0 persons per dwelling in the area.
How does recent development compare to population growth in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Over the past five years, the population in the suburb of Fern Bay has grown by approximately 3,086 people, while 67 residential approvals were recorded. This equates to a ratio of 46.1 people added for each new dwelling approval. This high ratio suggests strong population growth relative to housing supply, potentially indicating unmet housing demand.
Are there opportunities for residential developers in the suburb of Fern Bay?
With dwelling approval activity running at an average of 13 approvals per year and a population of 4,339, there appears to be a supply shortfall relative to projected demand, presenting strong opportunities for residential developers. With the population expected to increase by 2,043 people by 2041, around 1,022 new dwellings will be necessary. Current approval trends may be insufficient to meet forecast demand, indicating strong development opportunities.
Approvals Pipeline Development applications near Fern Bay

Development applications around Fern Bay

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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.

Project PipelineInfrastructure & Major Projects in Fern Bay

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AreaSearch tracks 7 current infrastructure and development projects inside Fern Bay, worth an estimated $38 million. A further 49 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $71 billion. 15 are already under construction and 17 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and education & training. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.

Detail

Local performance is heavily shaped by regional infrastructure upgrades, major developments, and urban planning changes. AreaSearch has identified a total of 10 projects that are anticipated to influence the local area. Principal developments include Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, Rifle Range, Fern Bay, Stockton Beach Repair Project, and Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre, with the following list detail highlighting the most significant undertakings.

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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure

What are some of the major infrastructure and planning changes likely to influence the suburb of Fern Bay?
Key infrastructure and planning changes likely to influence the suburb of Fern Bay include: Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre (Dev. Approval); Rifle Range, Fern Bay (Under Assessment); Stockton Beach Repair Project (Planning); Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre (Dev. Approval); and Bayway Village (Completed). These projects represent significant developments that will shape the area's future infrastructure landscape.
What types of infrastructure projects are impacting the suburb of Fern Bay?
Infrastructure development impacting the suburb of Fern Bay spans multiple sectors including Retail, Residential Development, and Energy, among others.
What is the scale of infrastructure investment impacting the suburb of Fern Bay?
Infrastructure investment analysis indicates substantial capital deployment exceeding $2.9 billion in projects that will impact the extended area.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay's infrastructure development compare to other areas?
The suburb of Fern Bay ranks in the top 10% nationally for infrastructure development, reflecting exceptional investment activity compared to similar areas across the country.
Fullerton Cove Shopping Centre
Category: Retail
Stage: Approved | Est. Comp: 2027
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

A new B1 Neighbourhood Centre featuring a 3,800sqm full-line Woolworths supermarket and a BWS liquor store. The development includes approximately 2,500sqm of specialty retail space, a medical centre, and over 300 car parking spaces. The project is designed to serve the growing residential communities of Fullerton Cove and Fern Bay while adhering to a 9-metre height limit and preserving surrounding environmental conservation zones.

Retail

Bayway Village
Category: Residential Development
Stage: Completed | Est. Comp: 2026
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

An over 50s land lease community with resort-style facilities and a variety of social activities, offering modern, low-maintenance homes for relaxed coastal living. The village is pet-friendly and features a new indoor pool, gym, bowling green, and community hall.

Residential Development

Rifle Range, Fern Bay
Category: Residential Development
Stage: Under Assessment | Est. Comp: 2028
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

A coastal residential redevelopment of the former Stockton Rifle Range featuring 232 land lots, a 1.5-hectare central park, and scenic walkways linking to Stockton Beach and local bushland. The masterplan includes 97 service residences for Defence families and 135 lots for the public. The project incorporates heritage stabilization of a former Anti-Aircraft Battery and extensive environmental conservation zones covering approximately 50% of the 105-hectare site.

Residential Development

Fern Bay and North Stockton Strategy
Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal
Stage: Planning | Est. Comp: 2040
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

A joint 20-year land use strategy led by Port Stephens Council and the City of Newcastle to guide future growth across Fern Bay, North Stockton and Fullerton Cove. The strategy supports a mixed-use town centre, diverse housing, open space, active transport, improved road and public transport links, and coordinated precinct planning. Implementation is progressing through individual planning proposals and development applications, including the Defence Housing Australia Rifle Range redevelopment and the approved Fullerton Cove neighbourhood shopping centre.

Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal

Retirement Community At Newcastle Golf Club
Category: Health & Medical
Stage: Approved | Est. Comp: 0
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

The seniors housing design includes three buildings with 125 serviced self-care apartments, 47 villas, 337 carparks, and a community centre with cinema and gym at the Newcastle Golf Club.

Health & Medical

Seaside at Fern Bay
Category: Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal
Stage: Completed | Est. Comp: 0
Source / Links: Link 1   Link 2  

A masterplanned coastal community of approximately 1000 lots, featuring a mix of residential housing, community facilities, and environmental protection areas.

Communities, Precincts & Urban Renewal

Four Anchors
Category: Residential Development
Stage: Completed | Est. Comp: 2024
Source / Links: Link 1   

Townhouse development offering generous sized blocks with wide street frontage, some overlooking a bush reserve. The project is sold out. It was developed by Mavid Group.

Residential Development

Stockton Centre Repurposing
Category: Residential Development
Stage: Construction | Est. Comp: 0
Source / Links: Link 1   

Repurposing the former Stockton Centre to provide transitional housing for vulnerable families. The upgraded site will offer short-term accommodation for up to 25 people per night.

Residential Development

Jobs & IndustryEmployment Trends in Fern Bay

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1,792 residents of Fern Bay are employed, from a labour force of 1,861. Unemployment sits at 3.7%, with participation at 53.9%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.5% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 3,529, about 81% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.

Detail

The local workforce is characterized by high skill levels and a strong presence in essential services, alongside a low unemployment rate of 3.7%, according to AreaSearch's compiled regional statistics. As of March 2026, the area has 1,792 employed residents. The unemployment rate is 0.4% lower than the Regional NSW average of 4.1%, whereas labor force participation is lower, standing at 53.9% compared to the 60.6% recorded across Regional NSW. Census data indicates that 31.5% of workers commute from home, though this figure should be interpreted in the context of pandemic lockdown measures.

The primary employment sectors for residents are health care & social assistance, public administration & safety, and education & training. The area exhibits a strong concentration in public administration & safety, with an employment share that is 2.1 times the regional average. Conversely, agricultural, forestry, and fishing enterprises account for only 0.8% of the local workforce, compared to 5.3% across Regional NSW. A comparison between the number of local jobs and the size of the resident workforce suggests that local employment opportunities are somewhat scarce. According to AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics for the surrounding region, the local labor force contracted by 1.1% and total employment fell by 2.6% during the year ending March 2026, leading to a rise in unemployment of 1.5 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW registered a 0.9% drop in employment and a 0.4% contraction in the labor force, with its unemployment rate rising by 0.5 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment projections from May-25 offer additional context on future demand trends. These five and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth. While national employment is expected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the rates of change vary by industry. Applying these sectoral trajectories to the local occupational mix indicates that employment among residents would rise by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, assuming a basic weighted model that does not account for specific local population growth projections.

Frequently Asked Questions - Employment

What is the employment situation in the suburb of Fern Bay?
As of March 2026, the suburb of Fern Bay has approximately 1,792 employed residents with an unemployment rate of 3.7%. This healthy unemployment rate suggests a well-functioning labour market. Employment indicators are below the national average, suggesting room for improvement, though the very low unemployment rate of 3.7% indicates the ranking primarily reflects recent job losses rather than underlying labor market weakness.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay's unemployment rate compare to the broader region?
As of March 2026, the unemployment rate in the suburb of Fern Bay stands at 3.7%, which is broadly in line with Regional NSW's rate of 4.1%. For comparison, the national unemployment rate is 4.2%.
What are the major employment sectors in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The employment landscape in the suburb of Fern Bay is dominated by several key sectors. The largest employers are health care & social assistance (17.1% of employment), public administration & safety (15.5%), and education & training (10.2%). Other significant employers include construction and professional & technical.
How has employment changed recently in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Over the past year to March 2026, the suburb of Fern Bay has experienced a decline in employment, with total jobs decreasing while the labour force decreased. As a result, the unemployment rate has rise. By comparison, Regional NSW saw employment decreased and its unemployment rate rose.
What is the workforce participation rate in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The workforce participation rate in the suburb of Fern Bay is 53.9%, which represents the proportion of working-age residents who are either employed or actively seeking work. This moderate participation rate suggests some residents may face barriers to workforce entry. The local rate trailing the Regional NSW average of 60.6%, suggesting potential for increased workforce participation.
Which industries are over-represented in the suburb of Fern Bay's employment market?
The suburb of fern bay shows notable specialization in public administration & safety, which employs 15.5% of the local workforce compared to 7.5% regionally. With a local vs regional employment ratio of 2.1, this represents a significant industry cluster that likely serves markets beyond the local area.
What are the employment growth prospects for the suburb of Fern Bay?
Based on Jobs and Skills Australia projections applied to the suburb of Fern Bay's industry mix, employment is expected to grow by 6.5% over the next five years and 13.6% over ten years. This compares to national growth expectations of 6.6% over five years. Steady growth is anticipated across multiple sectors, providing diverse employment opportunities.
How does the job market in the suburb of Fern Bay compare nationally?
The suburb of fern bay's employment market shows below-average performance in national comparisons. While employment opportunities exist, the area faces more challenges than many other regions. However, the low unemployment rate of 3.7% suggests the ranking is driven by recent job losses rather than structural weakness. Recent job advertisement trends show the broader employment region saw a 1.7% decline, ranking 21.0st out of 37 regions nationally.
What employment opportunities exist for skilled workers in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Skilled workers will find good opportunities in the suburb of Fern Bay, with skilled sectors accounting for 37.6% of employment. Key sectors for skilled workers include health care & social assistance (17.1%), education & training (10.2%), and professional & technical (6.6%). With projected employment growth of 6.5% over five years, demand for skilled workers is expected to remain strong.

EarningsHousehold Income in Fern Bay

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Median household income in Fern Bay is $1,435 a week (about $75,000 a year), with median personal income at $735 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $58,273 a year against an average of $70,705. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.

Detail

According to the latest ATO tax statistics for the postcode level released for financial year 2023, taxpayers in the suburb of Fern Bay earn a median income of $58,273 and an average income of $70,705. These figures exceed national benchmarks, comparing to a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated earnings as of March 2026 would be roughly $64,287 (median) and $78,002 (average). Census findings from 2021 show that household, family, and individual incomes are moderate, placing between the 31st and 35th percentiles.

In terms of earnings distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly band accounts for 27.4% of the population (representing 1,188 individuals), which aligns with the wider metropolitan trend of 29.9%. The population exhibits distinct economic tiers, ranging from 30.3% living in modest circumstances to 20.9% who are high earners. Affordable housing options are limited, with residents retaining only 81.1% of their income after housing costs, ranking in the 27th percentile, while the SEIFA index for income places the area in the 6th decile.

Frequently Asked Questions - Income

What is the median taxable income in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Based on Wage Price Index adjustments to March 2026, the estimated median taxable income in the suburb of Fern Bay is approximately $64,287. The official ATO data from FY-23 recorded a median of $58,273.
What is the average taxable income in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Based on Wage Price Index adjustments to March 2026, the estimated average taxable income in the suburb of Fern Bay is approximately $78,002. The official ATO data from FY-23 recorded an average of $70,705.
How does the median taxable income in the suburb of Fern Bay compare to the region?
Based on Wage Price Index adjustments to March 2026, the estimated median taxable income in the suburb of Fern Bay is approximately $64,287 compared to $57,797 in Regional NSW. The official ATO data from FY-23 shows $58,273 and $52,390 respectively.
How does the average taxable income in the suburb of Fern Bay compare to the region?
Based on Wage Price Index adjustments to March 2026, the estimated average taxable income in the suburb of Fern Bay is approximately $78,002 compared to $71,945 in Regional NSW. The official ATO data from FY-23 shows $70,705 and $65,215 respectively.
What are the main income cohorts in the suburb of Fern Bay according to the 2021 Census?
As per the 2021 Census, the income bracket containing the largest proportion (~27.4% / 1,188 persons) of the suburb of Fern Bay's population is the $1,500 - 2,999 cohort.
How do the main income cohorts in the suburb of Fern Bay compare to the region?
The largest income cohort in the suburb of Fern Bay is the $1,500 - 2,999 group, representing about 27.4% of the population. In comparison, Regional NSW's largest income cohort is the $1,500 - 2,999 group, representing 29.9% of its population, according to the 2021 Census.
What is the median household income in the suburb of Fern Bay according to the 2021 Census?
The 2021 Census data indicates that the median household income in the suburb of Fern Bay is $1,435/wk.
What is the median family income in the suburb of Fern Bay according to the 2021 Census?
According to the 2021 Census, the median family income in the suburb of Fern Bay is $2,104/wk.
What is the median personal income in the suburb of Fern Bay according to the 2021 Census?
The 2021 Census shows that the median personal income in the suburb of Fern Bay is $735/wk.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay's income rank nationally?
As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the suburb of Fern Bay's median income among taxpayers is $58,273, with an average of $70,705. This is above the national average, and compares to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $64,287 (median) and $78,002 (average) as of March 2026.
What is the disposable income in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The estimated disposable income in the suburb of Fern Bay is $5,043 per year according to AreaSearch analysis.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay's disposable income compare to the region?
The suburb of fern bay's disposable income is $5,043 compared to $5,252 for Regional NSW, based on AreaSearch analysis.

Housing StockHousing & Dwellings in Fern Bay

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Fern Bay had 1,641 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 98% detached houses and 0% apartments. 27% are owned with a mortgage, 25% rented and 48% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $510 a week and the median mortgage repayment $2,299 a month. Rent absorbs 35.5% of household income here and mortgage repayments 37.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.

Detail

At the time of the latest Census, the residential landscape in Fern Bay was dominated by separate houses at 98.2%, with semi-detached structures, apartments, and alternative dwellings making up the remaining 1.8%. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where separate houses account for 82.6% and other dwellings comprise 17.4%. Outright home ownership in the area was significantly higher than the regional average, standing at 47.9%, while the remaining properties were either held with a mortgage (27.2%) or occupied by tenants (24.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment was notably high at $2,299, and the median weekly rent was $510, compared to regional figures of $1,733 and $330 respectively.

On a national level, mortgage commitments in the area are substantially above the Australian median of $1,863, and typical rent levels exceed the national average of $375.

Frequently Asked Questions - Housing

What percentage of homes are owned vs rented in the suburb of Fern Bay?
In the suburb of Fern Bay, 47.9% of homes are owned outright, 27.2% are owned with a mortgage, and 24.9% are rented.
What percentage of dwellings in the suburb of Fern Bay are houses?
According to the latest data, 98.2% of dwellings in the suburb of Fern Bay are houses.
What percentage of dwellings in the suburb of Fern Bay are apartments or units?
In the suburb of Fern Bay, 0.2% of dwellings are apartments or units, with an additional 1.6% being semi-detached dwellings.
What is the level of outright home ownership in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Outright home ownership in the suburb of Fern Bay stands at 47.9%, compared to 39.6% in Regional NSW.
What is the median monthly mortgage repayment in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The median monthly mortgage repayment in the suburb of Fern Bay is $2,299, compared to $1,733 in Regional NSW.
What is the median weekly rent in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The median weekly rent in the suburb of Fern Bay is $510, compared to $330 in Regional NSW.
What is the distribution of rental prices in the suburb of Fern Bay?
In the suburb of Fern Bay, 0.0% of rentals are $0-149/week, 19.5% are $150-349/week, 75.4% are $350-649/week, 5.1% are $650-949/week, and 0.0% are $950+/week.
What is the average monthly housing cost in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The aggregate monthly housing cost in the suburb of Fern Bay is $1,175, which represents the average monthly cost across all housing types.
What percentage of income do residents spend on housing in the suburb of Fern Bay?
In the suburb of Fern Bay, households with mortgages typically spend 37.0% of their income on mortgage repayments, while renters spend 35.5% of their income on rent.
How crowded are homes in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The average persons per bedroom ratio in the suburb of Fern Bay is 0.7, indicating the level of household density.
How does housing affordability in the suburb of Fern Bay compare to the region?
Housing affordability in the suburb of Fern Bay shows mortgage holders spending 37.0% of income on repayments (vs 27.9% regionally), while renters spend 35.5% of income on rent (vs 23.0% regionally).
What types of dwellings are most common in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The dwelling mix in the suburb of Fern Bay consists of 98.2% detached houses, 1.6% semi-detached dwellings, 0.2% apartments, and 0.0% other dwelling types.
What is the weighted average housing cost based on tenure mix in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Based on the area's tenure composition, the weighted average monthly housing cost is approximately $1,175. This accounts for outright owners paying no housing costs, mortgage holders paying $2,299/month, and renters paying $2,208/month.
How affordable is housing in the suburb of Fern Bay relative to local incomes?
Housing in Fern Bay consumes approximately 18.9% of median household income ($6,214 monthly), indicating costs are highly affordable. The generally accepted benchmark is that housing should not exceed 30% of household income.
How do proposed developments compare to existing housing types in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Recent development applications in Fern Bay show attached dwellings contributing 11% of approvals compared to 2% of existing stock, while detached houses represent 89% of applications versus 98% of current dwellings. This suggests increasing densification. Density increases remain below national trends.

HouseholdsHousehold Composition in Fern Bay

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Fern Bay counted 1,641 households at the 2021 Census, an estimated 1,760 today, averaging 2.4 people each. 28% are couples with children, against 33% couples without children. 30% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.9 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.

Detail

Families represent the majority of local households at 68.5%, consisting of couples with children (27.7%), couples without children (33.0%), and single parent families (7.1%). Single persons (29.9%) and shared households (1.8%) make up the remaining 31.5% of non-family households. The median household size is 2.4 people, matching the Regional NSW average.

Frequently Asked Questions - Households

How many households are in the suburb of Fern Bay?
As of the 2021 Census, the suburb of Fern Bay had 1,641 households. Based on population growth patterns, this has grown by approximately 7.3% to an estimated 1,760 households today.
What is the typical household size?
The median household size in the suburb of Fern Bay is 2.4 people. This compares to 2.4 in Regional NSW and reflects the area's household composition mix.
What types of households are most common?
Family households dominate at 68.5% of all households. The remaining households consist of lone person households (29.9%), group households (1.8%), and other household types (0.0%).
How are families structured in the area?
Among the 1,124 family households, 27.7% are couples with children, 33.0% are couples without children at home, and 7.1% are single parent families. This mix shapes local demand for schools, family services, and housing types.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay compare to regional household patterns?
Compared to Regional NSW, the suburb of Fern Bay shows distinct household patterns. This higher proportion of single-person households drives demand for smaller dwellings and different community services.
What is the average family size?
Families in the suburb of Fern Bay have an average of 1.9 children, slightly above the Regional NSW average of 1.8. This influences local demand for child-related services and larger family homes.
What are the marriage patterns in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Marriage patterns reveal 52.3% of the adult population are currently married, while 24.9% have never married. This compares to 45.6% married and 34.3% never married across Regional NSW.
How significant are single-person households?
Single-person households represent 29.9% of all households in the suburb of Fern Bay, similar to the regional average of 27.9%. This affects demand for smaller dwellings and single-person accommodation.
Are shared living arrangements common?
Group households (unrelated people sharing) account for 1.8% of households, well below the Regional NSW average of 3.3%. This low rate suggests limited student or young professional shared accommodation.
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EducationSchools & Education in Fern Bay

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22.8% of adults in Fern Bay hold a university qualification, including 15.1% with a bachelor degree and 5.1% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 28.6% hold a vocational qualification. 1 school serves the area, with 167 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 992 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.

Detail

Educational attainment levels in Fern Bay are lower than state-wide averages, with 22.8% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 32.2% across NSW. This variance points to opportunities for increasing educational access and regional skill levels. Bachelor degrees are the most common tertiary qualification at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 5.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Vocational qualifications are common, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (28.6%). Engagement in learning is high, with 28.0% of the population enrolled in an educational institution.

This group includes 11.4% attending primary school, 6.4% in high school, and 3.8% enrolled in tertiary courses.

Frequently Asked Questions - Education

What percentage of people in the suburb of Fern Bay have university qualifications?
22.8% of people aged 15 and over in the suburb of Fern Bay have university qualifications, compared to 21.3% in the broader region.
What percentage of people in the suburb of Fern Bay have no formal qualifications?
37.3% of people aged 15 and over in the suburb of Fern Bay have no formal qualifications, compared to 39.1% regionally.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay's education level compare to national averages?
The suburb of fern bay ranks in the 46th percentile nationally for education based on AreaSearch's analysis of qualification and performance metrics.
What types of qualifications are most common in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The most common qualifications in the suburb of Fern Bay are: Certificate (28.6%), Bachelor Degree (15.1%), Advanced Diploma (11.2%).
What proportion of the suburb of Fern Bay's population is currently attending educational institutions?
28.0% of the population in the suburb of Fern Bay is currently engaged in formal education, with 11.4% in primary school, 6.4% in secondary school, 3.8% at university.
What is the ICSEA score for schools in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The average ICSEA (Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage) score for schools in the suburb of Fern Bay is 992, indicating below-average socio-educational advantage compared to the national average of 1000.
How many schools are located within the suburb of Fern Bay?
There are 1 schools within the suburb of Fern Bay, with a combined enrollment of approximately 167 students.
What types of schools are available in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The suburb of fern bay includes 1 primary school.

Schools Detail

AmenitiesServices & Amenities in Fern Bay

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Getting AroundTransport & Commuting in Fern Bay

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Public transport in Fern Bay reaches 20 stops on 36 routes, timetabled for about 730 services a week. The typical home sits about 230 m from its nearest stop. Buses carry the largest share of public transport commuters. Households keep an average of 1.3 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.

Detail

Analysis of the local network shows 20 active public transport stops in Fern Bay, consisting of bus services. These stops are connected to 36 distinct routes, which support a total of 725 passenger journeys per week. Transport access is rated as favorable, with residents living an average of 234 meters from their nearest stop. Because of the suburb's residential nature, the vast majority of workers travel outside the area, with private vehicles remaining the principal mode of travel for 98% of commuters. Average car ownership stands at 1.3 vehicles per household, which is below the regional average.

A high proportion of residents, 31.5%, work from home, based on 2021 Census data which may reflect pandemic-era workplace restrictions. Service frequency across all routes averages 103 runs per day, which translates to approximately 36 scheduled services per week at each individual transit stop.

Frequently Asked Questions - Transport

How many public transport stops are in Fern Bay?
There are 20 public transport stops within the suburb of Fern Bay.
How frequent are the transport services in Fern Bay?
the suburb of Fern Bay has 725 weekly trips across 36 routes, averaging 103 trips per day.
How far are residents from public transport in Fern Bay?
On average, residential properties are 234 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Transport Stops Detail

HealthcareHealth Services in Fern Bay

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60.5% of residents in Fern Bay report no long-term health condition. 7.4% need daily assistance with core activities, and 54.9% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 4.0 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.

Detail

Health outcomes in the suburb of Fern Bay are slightly below average, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of regional mortality and long-term health condition trends. The prevalence of standard medical conditions is largely average overall, though higher than the national benchmark among older demographics. Private health insurance coverage is high, with approximately 55% of residents (~2,381 people) holding cover, compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW. Arthritis and mental health concerns are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.7% and 8.8% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 60.5% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW.

Chronic conditions are more common than average among the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and over make up 29.1% of the community (1,262 people), exceeding the Regional NSW proportion of 23.4%. Seniors face some health difficulties, although their national health outcome rankings are more favorable than those of the broader local population.

Frequently Asked Questions - Health

How many people in the suburb of Fern Bay have private health insurance?
Around 54.9% of people in the suburb of Fern Bay are covered by private health insurance, which compares to 51.9% in the broader region of Regional NSW.
What percentage of the population requires ongoing medical assistance in the suburb of Fern Bay?
In the suburb of Fern Bay, 7.4% of the population is identified as requiring ongoing medical assistance. This figure is slightly different from the regional average, where 6.8% of people in Regional NSW require similar assistance.
How prevalent is asthma in the suburb of Fern Bay?
8.0% of people in the suburb of Fern Bay are diagnosed with asthma. In comparison, 8.4% of the population across Regional NSW is affected by asthma.
What percentage of people have diabetes in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Diabetes affects 5.2% of the the suburb of Fern Bay population, while in the surrounding region, 4.7% of people are diagnosed with diabetes.
What is the percentage of people with heart disease in the suburb of Fern Bay?
5.4% of people in the suburb of Fern Bay have heart disease. Across the region of Regional NSW, 4.4% of the population is affected by heart disease.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay compare to the region in terms of overall private health coverage?
In the suburb of Fern Bay, 54.9% of the population are estimated to have private health insurance. Comparatively, Regional NSW sees an estimated private health coverage rate of 51.9%.

Ancestry & LanguageCultural Diversity in Fern Bay

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Fern Bay is largely Australian-born, at 87.5% of residents, with 4.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (31.9%) and Australian (29.9%). 3.7% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.

Detail

The suburb of Fern Bay has a lower level of cultural diversity compared to national benchmarks, with Australian-born residents making up 87.5% of the population, citizens accounting for 91.6%, and 95.2% speaking only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, representing 57.5% of the local population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. Looking at parent countries of birth, the largest ancestry groups represented locally are English (31.9%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (9.0%). There are also notable differences in the concentration of other backgrounds compared to the region: Welsh ancestry accounts for 1.3% of the local population (compared to 0.5% regionally), Russian ancestry is at 0.4% (compared to 0.2%), and Macedonian ancestry stands at 0.3% (compared to 0.4%).

Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity

What is the level of cultural diversity in the suburb of Fern Bay?
Fern Bay was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 87.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 95.2% speaking English only at home.
What is the most common religion in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The main religion in Fern Bay was found to be Christianity, which makes up 57.5% of people in Fern Bay. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.
What are the top countries of origin in the suburb of Fern Bay?
In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Fern Bay are English, comprising 31.9% of the population, Australian, comprising 29.9% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Welsh is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Fern Bay (vs 0.5% regionally), Russian at 0.4% (vs 0.2%) and Macedonian at 0.3% (vs 0.4%).
How does the percentage of people born overseas compare to the regional average?
12.5% of the the suburb of Fern Bay population was born overseas, compared to 13.0% regionally.
What percentage of the the suburb of Fern Bay population speaks a language other than English at home?
4.8% of the population in the suburb of Fern Bay speaks a language other than English at home, compared to 7.1% in the wider region.
How many people in the suburb of Fern Bay identify as Australian Aboriginal?
3.7% of the the suburb of Fern Bay population identifies as Australian Aboriginal, compared to 4.6% in the region.
What is the citizenship status of the population in the suburb of Fern Bay?
91.6% of the the suburb of Fern Bay population holds citizenship, compared to 89.2% in the wider region.

Age StructureAge Profile of Fern Bay

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The median resident of Fern Bay is 42. That is 1 year younger than at the 2021 Census. 21.0% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.

Detail

The median age in Fern Bay is 42 years, which is close to the Regional NSW average of 43 years but older than the national median of 38 years. Demographic data shows a high concentration of residents in the 75 - 84 age cohort (11.9%), whereas the 55 - 64 bracket is smaller (7.1%) than is typical for Regional NSW. The concentration of 75 - 84 year-olds is higher than the national figure of 6.1%. Since 2021, the cohort aged 15 to 24 grew from 7.8% to 10.2% of the population, and the group aged 75 to 84 rose from 10.3% to 11.9%.

Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 bracket shrank from 9.6% to 7.1%, and the 65 to 74 cohort fell from 17.3% to 15.0%. Projections for 2041 suggest significant shifts, with the 75 to 84 age bracket expected to grow by 61%, adding 314 residents to reach a total of 831.

Frequently Asked Questions - Age

What is the median age in the suburb of Fern Bay?
According to the latest data, the median age in the suburb of Fern Bay is 42 years.
How does the suburb of Fern Bay's median age compare to broader areas?
At 42 years, Fern Bay is comparable to the Regional NSW average (43 years) yet 4 years older than the national average (38 years).
What age groups are over-represented in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The most over-represented age group in the suburb of Fern Bay compared to the Regional NSW region is the 75 - 84 group, making up 11.9% of the population.
What age groups are under-represented in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The most under-represented age group in the suburb of Fern Bay compared to the Regional NSW region is the 55 - 64 group, making up 7.1% of the population.
Are there age groups with notable population variances?
Yes, certain age groups in the suburb of Fern Bay show significant variance compared to the Regional NSW region. The most over-represented age group is 75-84 year-olds (11.9% vs 8.2%). The most under-represented age group is 55-64 year-olds (7.1% vs 12.5%).
What is the percentage of children (0-14 years) in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The percentage of children aged 0-14 years in the suburb of Fern Bay is 20.0%.
What is the percentage of older people (65+ years) in the suburb of Fern Bay?
The percentage of people aged 65 and over in the suburb of Fern Bay is 29.1%.

Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Fern Bay

Data currency Refreshed

9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.

Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.

The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section

Section Source & update cycle Currency
Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections
Population ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline.
Age profile ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate.
Development & approvals ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline
Property sales & rents Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures
Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026.
Infrastructure projects Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily Aug 2026 this month all 7 projects tracked here
Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026.
Employment ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census.
Education ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Transport ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Services & amenities Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures
Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections
Income ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail.
Health ABS, ATO Annual 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline
Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current.
Housing ABS 5-yearly (Census) 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures
Households ABS 5-yearly (Census) 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures
Cultural diversity ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures

"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.

How the numbers are built

Population

The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 37 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (4,046 at the 2021 Census → 4,339 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.

Age profile

Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".

Property sales

Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.

Rents

Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.

Development & infrastructure

Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.

Employment & income

Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.

Education, transport & amenities

School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.

Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.

Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.

Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL11504). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.

Common questions about this page

How do Fern Bay suburb boundaries differ from Statistical Areas?
This page uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries (suburb-style geography). SAL represents commonly-known suburb names used in addresses, while Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census/statistical reporting. Even when sharing the same name, SAL and SA2 boundaries often cover different geographic areas with different populations.
Where does the data on this Fern Bay page come from?
AreaSearch compiles this page from official and industry sources — including ABS, Geoscience Australia, Valuer General, Provider directories, DEWR, JSA, State Transport Departments and ACARA — then aggregates them to the boundary shown and calculates the rankings, growth rates and benchmarks itself. Property sales come from the state valuation authority, rents from state rental bond lodgements, development applications from council and state planning portals, school data from ACARA, and public transport from state transport departments.
Is the Fern Bay data on this page just from the 2021 Census?
No. Most of this page is maintained well beyond the Census. Sourced entirely from current releases: development & approvals (Jun 2026), property sales & rents (Aug 2026), infrastructure projects (Aug 2026) and services & amenities (Jul 2026). Built on a Census baseline but carrying newer measures on top: population (to May 2026), age profile (to May 2026), employment (to Mar 2026), income (to FY 2023), education (to Aug 2026), transport (to Jul 2026) and health (to 2024). Population and age cohorts in particular are re-based to the latest ABS Estimated Resident Population rather than left at 2021 counts. Only housing, households and cultural diversity remain wholly Census-based, because no more current small-area dataset exists for those measures.

Nearby Areas