Nelson Bay (NSW)

Nelson Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the Nelson Bay (NSW) statistical area (Lv2), as estimated by AreaSearch, was around 6,080 in November 2025. This figure reflects a decrease from the previous census in 2021, which recorded a population of 6,141 people. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 6,021 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 386 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing nearly all gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in June 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Nelson Bay (NSW) (SA2) is expected to increase by approximately 7.3% by 2041, adding around 421 persons over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Nelson Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Nelson Bay had approximately 15 new homes approved annually. Between financial years FY-21 to FY-25, around 76 homes were approved, with 3 more approved in FY-26 as of the present time. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas, benefiting buyers.

New homes are targeted at a premium market segment, with an average construction cost value of $721,000. In FY-26, there have been $1.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to the rest of NSW. Nelson Bay shows reduced construction levels, 61.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. The area's established nature is indicated by being under the national average for new building activity, suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of approximately 47.0% detached dwellings and 53.0% medium to high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

Nelson Bay has around 321 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 442 residents by 2041, with current development well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Nelson Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified ten projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel, Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan, The Belvedere, and Kurrara Hill. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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While Nelson Bay retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.8%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Nelson Bay's workforce is skilled with prominence in tourism and hospitality sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.8% as of September 2025, matching the Rest of NSW's rate.

There were 2,540 residents employed at this time, but workforce participation lagged behind Rest of NSW at 49.8%. Key industries for employment among Nelson Bay residents are accommodation & food, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area has a notable concentration in accommodation & food with employment levels twice the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented with only 0.9% of Nelson Bay's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. In the year ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.8% and employment declined by 2.5%, resulting in a fall of 0.3 percentage points in unemployment rate. By contrast, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. As of 25-Nov-25, NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimate growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Nelson Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Nelson Bay had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers was $44,895 and the average income stood at $63,960. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW's of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $48,873 (median) and $69,627 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Nelson Bay all fell between the 20th and 26th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicated that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captured 28.2% of the community (1,714 individuals), reflecting patterns seen in the region where 29.9% similarly occupied this range. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 20th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Nelson Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Nelson Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 59.5% houses and 40.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure of 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Nelson Bay was 43.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged at 24.9% or rented at 31.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of June 2021, was $1,842, which is higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure for Nelson Bay was recorded at $380 in December 2020, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, as of June 2021, Nelson Bay's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are higher than the national figure of $375.

Nelson Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.3% of all households, consisting of 18.9% couples with children, 34.8% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 34.7%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Nelson Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 13.5% and certificates at 28.6%. A total of 23.4% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 8.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.4% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nelson Bay has 69 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 54 different routes that together facilitate 535 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is considered excellent, with residents generally situated 176 meters away from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 76 trips per day across all routes, which translates to about 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Nelson Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Nelson Bay faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions.

The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 52%, which is slightly higher than the average SA2 area's 50.1%. This compares to 50.1% across Rest of NSW, with around 3,176 people in Nelson Bay having such coverage. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 12.2% and 8.7% of residents respectively. However, 61.2% of residents reported being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 59.3% across Rest of NSW. Nelson Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 31.2% (1,896 people) compared to the Rest of NSW's 28.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Nelson Bay are strong and even outperform those of the general population in various health metrics.

Nelson Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nelson Bay had a cultural diversity level below average, with 80.3% of its population born in Australia, 89.6% being citizens, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, comprising 56.2% of Nelson Bay's population, compared to 57.4% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.5%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Croatian representation was higher at 1.0% in Nelson Bay versus 0.4% regionally, Scottish at 8.8% compared to 8.3%, and French at 0.6% compared to 0.4%.

Nelson Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nelson Bay's median age at 51 years is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and considerably older than Australia's median of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, Nelson Bay has a notably over-represented cohort aged 65-74 (17.9%) and an under-represented cohort aged 5-14 (8.6%). This concentration of those aged 65-74 is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the population aged 15 to 24 grew from 9.6% to 11.0%, while the cohort aged 75 to 84 increased from 9.2% to 10.3%. Conversely, the cohort aged 5 to 14 declined from 9.6% to 8.6%. By 2041, Nelson Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the cohort aged 85 and above will grow by 91%, reaching 349 people from 182. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 59% of projected growth. Conversely, both cohorts aged 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 are expected to see reduced numbers.