Nelson Bay (NSW)

Nelson Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of the suburb of Nelson Bay (NSW) was estimated at 6,141 people as of Feb 2021. By Feb 2026, this had decreased to around 6,106, a change inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses since the Census date and examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024. This decrease reflects a 0.6% reduction over five years. The population density as of Feb 2026 is approximately 388 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed around 98.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, with a base year of 2021. Based on these aggregations, the suburb is expected to increase by 275 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 4.6% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Nelson Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Nelson Bay has seen around 15 new homes approved each year. Approximately 76 homes were approved over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, and 3 have been approved so far in FY26. Despite population decline, development activity has remained adequate relative to other areas.

The average value of new homes being built is $721,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $1.3 million, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to residential construction. Nelson Bay shows substantially reduced construction compared to the rest of NSW, with 61.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties, although building activity has accelerated in recent years. New building activity comprises 47.0% detached dwellings and 53.0% medium and high-density housing, favouring higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. Nelson Bay's population density is around 321 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area.

Latest AreaSearch quarterly estimates forecast Nelson Bay will gain 283 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Nelson Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones are d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel, Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan, The Belvedere, and Kurrara Hill. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

While Nelson Bay retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.8%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Nelson Bay has a skilled workforce with prominent tourism and hospitality sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.8%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation in September 2025. There are 2,516 residents employed, matching Rest of NSW's 3.8% unemployment rate, but workforce participation lags at 49.0%.

Census responses show 21.1% work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries include accommodation & food (2x regional average), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.9%, compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Local employment opportunities seem limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.9% and employment declined by 2.7%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. Rest of NSW saw employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, varying by industry sector. Applying these projections to Nelson Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes, not accounting for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Nelson Bay suburb's median income among taxpayers was $44,895 and average income stood at $63,960 in financial year 2023. These figures were below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. By September 2025, these incomes are estimated to increase to approximately $48,873 (median) and $69,627 (average), based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Nelson Bay were between the 20th and 26th percentiles nationally. Income brackets showed that 28.2% of individuals earned between $1,500 - $2,999 annually, reflecting regional patterns where 29.9% occupied this range. Housing affordability pressures were severe with only 82.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Nelson Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Nelson Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census held in 2016, comprised 59.5% houses and 40.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Nelson Bay was 43.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged at 24.9% or rented at 31.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Nelson Bay, as recorded in June 2021, was $1,842, which is higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Nelson Bay was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Nelson Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Nelson Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.3% of all households, including 18.9% that are couples with children, 34.8% that are couples without children, and 10.7% that are single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 34.7%, with lone person households making up 31.5% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Nelson Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.5%) and certificates (28.6%).

A substantial 23.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nelson Bay has 69 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 54 different routes, offering a total of 535 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 176 meters from the nearest stop. In this predominantly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 90% of residents, while walking accounts for 7%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 76 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Nelson Bay is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Nelson Bay shows above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are low for both young and old age cohorts. Private health cover is present at approximately 52% of the total population (~3,189 people), leading that of the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.2% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 8.7%). A total of 61.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 31.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,929 people), higher than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Nelson Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nelson Bay, as per the census data on cultural diversity from June 2016, had a population where 80.3% were born in Australia, 89.6% held citizenship, and 91.3% spoke English exclusively at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 56.2% of Nelson Bay's residents, slightly higher than the 55.9% average across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.5%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Croatian ancestry was overrepresented in Nelson Bay at 1.0%, compared to 0.3% regionally, as were Scottish (8.8% vs 8.0%) and French (0.6% vs 0.4%) ancestries.

Nelson Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nelson Bay's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and considerably older than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Nelson Bay at 18.3%, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 8.6%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.6% to 10.9% of Nelson Bay's population, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 9.6% to 8.6%. By 2041, Nelson Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 85+ group growing by 72%, reaching 337 people from a starting point of 195. The aging population dynamic is clear, as those aged 65 and above will comprise 57% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 55 to 64 and 5 to 14 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.