Nelson Bay (NSW)

Nelson Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

The population of Nelson Bay NSW is estimated at around 5,988 as of May 2026. This reflects a decrease from the 2021 Census figure of 6,141 people, indicating a drop of 153 individuals (2.5%). AreaSearch's resident population estimate for Nelson Bay is 5,977 based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and validation of additional 27 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 380 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver of population growth in Nelson Bay has been overseas migration, contributing around 98% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 using the base year of 2021 for areas not covered by ABS data. These projections indicate an expected population increase just below Australia's regional median, with Nelson Bay projected to grow by 404 persons to reach a total of 6,392 by 2041, reflecting a 6.6% overall increase over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Nelson Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Nelson Bay saw approximately 13 new home approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between financial years FY21 and FY25, around 65 homes were approved, with an additional 7 approved so far in FY26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $721,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In FY26, there have been $1.3 million in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of NSW and nationally, Nelson Bay shows reduced construction activity, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 47% detached dwellings and 53% medium to high-density housing. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 416 people. Future projections estimate Nelson Bay will add 393 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with growth projections.

However, buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Nelson Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects that could impact this region. Notable ones are d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel, Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan, The Belvedere, and Kurrara Hill. The following list details the most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Nelson Bay recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Nelson Bay has a skilled workforce with prominent tourism and hospitality sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 2,367 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which is 0.2% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation stands at 46.5%, significantly lower than Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census responses reveal that 21.1% of residents work from home, considering potential Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries for employment among residents are accommodation & food, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Nelson Bay shows strong specialization in accommodation & food with an employment share of 2.0 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.9% compared to the regional 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas, during the year to December 2025, Nelson Bay's labour force decreased by 2.3% and employment decreased by 2.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Nelson Bay. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Nelson Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Nelson Bay had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $44,895 and the average income stood at $63,960. These figures compared to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $49,528 (median) and $70,561 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data showed household, family and personal incomes in Nelson Bay all fell between the 20th and 26th percentiles nationally. The largest segment of income distribution comprised 28.2% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,688 residents), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 29.9% similarly occupied this range. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 20th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Nelson Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Nelson Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.5% houses and 40.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is in contrast to Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nelson Bay stood at 43.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.9% and rented ones at 31.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Nelson Bay was $1,842, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Nelson Bay was recorded at $380, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Nelson Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Nelson Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 65.3% of all households, including 18.9% couples with children, 34.8% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 34.7%, with lone person households at 31.5% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Nelson Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them. Advanced diplomas account for 13.5% and certificates for 28.6%.

Currently, 23.4% of the population is engaged in formal education. This includes 8.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nelson Bay has 69 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These are serviced by a total of 54 routes, offering 535 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility to these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average living just 176 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Nelson Bay's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 90%, while walking accounts for 7%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 21.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 76 trips per day, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Nelson Bay is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Nelson Bay shows superior health outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both younger and older age groups exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is more prevalent in Nelson Bay at approximately 52% (~3,128 people), compared to the average SA2 area. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (8.7%). A majority (61.2%) of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age residents have a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a larger proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 33.1% (1,982 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, ranking even better than the general population nationally.

Nelson Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nelson Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 80.3% of its population born in Australia, 89.6% being citizens, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Nelson Bay, comprising 56.2% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (30.5%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Croatian (1.0%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average (0.3%), Scottish (8.8%) is slightly higher than the regional figure (8.0%), and French (0.6%) is also somewhat higher than regionally (0.4%).

Nelson Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nelson Bay's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Nelson Bay at 18.7%, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 8.2%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 9.6% to 11.5% of Nelson Bay's population, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 9.2% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.6% to 10.8%, and the 5 to 14 age group dropped from 9.6% to 8.2%. By 2041, Nelson Bay is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 81%, reaching 368 people from 203. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 58% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.