Nelson Bay (NSW)

Nelson Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population for the suburb of Nelson Bay (NSW) is around 6,106 people. This figure reflects a decrease of 35 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a total population of 6,141. The current resident population estimate by AreaSearch is 6,021, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of an additional 23 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 388 persons per square kilometer. The primary driver for population growth in the area was overseas migration, contributing around 98.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch projections for Nelson Bay's population are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas. For non-covered SA2 areas, NSW State Government SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Nelson Bay's population is expected to increase by approximately 266 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of around 3.0% over the 17-year period. This growth rate is just below the median for Australia's regional areas.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Nelson Bay, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data indicates Nelson Bay has seen approximately 13 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 65 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved in FY-26. This supply meets or exceeds demand, as evidenced by an average of 0 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the same period.

The average value of new homes being built is $721,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Commercial approvals this financial year total $1.3 million, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to Rest of NSW. Nelson Bay shows substantially reduced construction, 66.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. This activity is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 47.0% detached dwellings and 53.0% medium to high-density housing, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. The estimated population density of 421 people per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment.

Future projections estimate Nelson Bay will add 181 residents by 2041, based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Nelson Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include d'Albora Marina Nelson Bay Hotel, Nelson Bay Public Domain Plan, The Belvedere, and Kurrara Hill. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Nelson Bay presents a mixed picture: unemployment remains low at 3.9%, yet recent job losses have affected its comparative national standing

Nelson Bay has a skilled workforce with prominent tourism and hospitality sectors. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation in December 2025. There are 2,532 residents employed, aligning with Regional NSW's 3.9% unemployment rate but with lower workforce participation at 49.3%.

Moderate home workership was reported at 21.1%, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries include accommodation & food (strongly specialized), health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.9%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited by Census data comparison of working population vs resident population.

Labour force decreased by 0.9% year to December 2025, with employment down 0.7%, reducing unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. Regional NSW showed contrasting figures: employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections vary significantly. Applying these to Nelson Bay's employment mix suggests local growth should be around 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Nelson Bay had an income level below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Nelson Bay was $44,895 and the average income stood at $63,960. These figures compared to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $48,873 (median) and $69,627 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Nelson Bay all fell between the 20th and 26th percentiles nationally. The largest segment of income distribution comprised 28.2% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,721 residents), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 29.9% similarly occupied this range. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Nelson Bay, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Nelson Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Nelson Bay's housing structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 59.5% houses and 40.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nelson Bay stood at 43.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 24.9% and rented ones at 31.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,842, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Nelson Bay was $380, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Nelson Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Nelson Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 65.3% of all households, including 18.9% couples with children, 34.8% couples without children, and 10.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up 34.7%, consisting of 31.5% lone person households and 3.3% group households. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Nelson Bay aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 13.5% and certificates at 28.6%.

A total of 23.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 3.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nelson Bay has 69 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a total of 54 different bus routes, which together facilitate 535 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 176 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most inhabitants commute outward for work or other purposes. The car remains the primary mode of transportation, used by 90% of residents, while walking accounts for 7%. On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in Nelson Bay, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 21.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages at 76 trips per day, translating approximately to 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Nelson Bay is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Nelson Bay demonstrates above-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Both young and old age cohorts show low prevalence of common health conditions. The area has approximately 52% private health cover, leading that of the average SA2 area with around 3,189 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and mental health issues (8.7%). About 61.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents have an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 31.9%, totaling 1,947 people, compared to the regional average of 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors in Nelson Bay are particularly strong, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

Nelson Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Nelson Bay's population, surveyed in 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 80.3% born in Australia and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Most residents were citizens, at 89.6%. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 56.2%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's 55.9%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (30.5%), Australian (26.8%), and Irish (9.6%). Some ethnic groups had notable differences: Croatian residents were overrepresented at 1.0% compared to the regional average of 0.3%, Scottish residents were also higher at 8.8% versus 8.0%, and French residents were slightly more prevalent at 0.6% compared to 0.4%.

Nelson Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nelson Bay's median age stands at 51 years, notably higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the Australian median of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is significantly over-represented in Nelson Bay at 18.5%, compared to the Regional NSW average and national figure of 9.5%. Meanwhile, individuals aged 5-14 are under-represented locally at 8.5%. Post-Census data from 2021 shows that the 15-24 age group has increased from 9.6% to 11.2%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.6% to 11.3%. The 5-14 age group also saw a decline, from 9.6% to 8.5%. By 2041, Nelson Bay's demographic is projected to shift significantly. Notably, the 85+ group is expected to grow by 72%, reaching 337 individuals from its current figure of 195. The aging population trend is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 57% of the projected growth. Conversely, both the 55-64 and 5-14 age groups are expected to decrease in number.