Lemon Tree Passage

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lemon Tree Passage reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of Lemon Tree Passage is around 2,690, reflecting an increase of 4 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,686. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,687 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. The current population density ratio is approximately 905 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed around 50% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics project an above median growth for locations outside capital cities, with Lemon Tree Passage expected to grow by 375 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a total gain of 13.8% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Lemon Tree Passage is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lemon Tree Passage had less than one new dwelling approved annually between 2016 and 2020. This minimal activity is typical of rural areas with modest housing needs and limited construction due to local demand and infrastructure capacity. The small sample size means individual projects can significantly impact annual growth figures.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage had substantially lower development levels during this period. Its development pattern was also well below national averages for the same years.

Lemon Tree Passage has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No factors impact an area's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could potentially affect this area. Notable projects include the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and Newcastle Offshore Wind Project. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Lemon Tree Passage faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Lemon Tree Passage has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.9%. The past year shows relative employment stability.

AreaSearch data aggregation indicates 959 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 7.9% (2.0% above Regional NSW's 3.9%). Workforce participation is lower at 43.2%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. A moderate 19.0% of residents work from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade has a strong presence, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, education & training is under-represented at 4.5%, compared to Regional NSW's 9.6%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, labour force decreased by 1.6% and employment declined by 0.3%, reducing unemployment by 1.3 percentage points. In Regional NSW, employment fell by 1.2%, labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that median income in Lemon Tree Passage is $41,353, with average income at $50,258. This is below Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. By March 2026, based on a 10.32% Wage Price Index growth since financial year ending June 2023, estimated median income in Lemon Tree Passage is approximately $45,621, with average income at $55,445. Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage fall between the 5th and 5th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 28.7% of locals (772 people) earning between $800 - 1,499 per week, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 category dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Lemon Tree Passage, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage was 45.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (26.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent was $365, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Lemon Tree Passage's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,600 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $365 compared to the national figure of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 19.3% couples with children, 35.1% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Lemon Tree Passage exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 12.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 47.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (37.0%).

A substantial 23.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis shows 22 active transport stops in Lemon Tree Passage, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 20 individual routes, collectively offering 244 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these stops is rated excellent, with residents typically located 176 meters from the nearest one. As a predominantly residential area, most commutes are outward-bound, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 97%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 19.0% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 34 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lemon Tree Passage faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence data. Notably, both younger and older age groups have high prevalence of common health conditions. Only 47% (~1,261 people) of Lemon Tree Passage residents have private health cover, compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 14.5% of residents) and mental health issues (11.0%). However, 53.1% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 30.9% (831 people) aged 65 and over, compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Although senior health outcomes align with national rankings, some challenges persist.

Lemon Tree Passage is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage, as per the census conducted on 27 June 2016, exhibited lower cultural diversity with 89.6% of its population being Australian citizens and 87.6% born in Australia. The majority, 95.6%, spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 54.4% of the population, slightly below the Regional NSW average of 55.9%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (34.1%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (8.6%). Some notable differences included a higher representation of French ancestry at 0.6%, compared to 0.4% regionally, and slightly lower representations of Australian Aboriginal (4.4%) and Scottish (8.6%) ancestries compared to regional averages of 4.6% and 8.0% respectively.

Lemon Tree Passage ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Lemon Tree Passage is 52 years, which is significantly higher than Regional NSW's average of 43 and well above the national norm of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented at 18.1% locally, compared to Regional NSW's average, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 9.2%. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 9.3% to 11.3%, while the 75-84 cohort increased from 9.3% to 11.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has declined from 11.7% to 10.1%, and the 5-14 age group dropped from 10.7% to 9.2%. Population forecasts for Lemon Tree Passage in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 34%, adding 81 residents to reach 324, while numbers in the 15-24 age range are expected to fall by 20%.