Lemon Tree Passage

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lemon Tree Passage reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Lemon Tree Passage statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,688. This figure reflects an increase of 2 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,686. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,682, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. The population density ratio for the Lemon Tree Passage (SA2) is approximately 905 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed about 50% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections were used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for locations outside capital cities. The Lemon Tree Passage (SA2) is projected to grow by 390 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 16.3% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Lemon Tree Passage is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lemon Tree Passage has seen minimal construction activity in recent years. Less than one new dwelling was approved annually on average over the past five years. This low level of development is typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

The small sample size means individual projects can significantly impact annual growth statistics. Development levels in Lemon Tree Passage are substantially lower than those in the rest of NSW, and well below national averages.

Lemon Tree Passage has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 0 projects potentially impacting this region. Key initiatives comprise the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and Newcastle Offshore Wind Project. Below lists those most pertinent.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Lemon Tree Passage faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Lemon Tree Passage has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, predominantly in manufacturing and industrial sectors. The unemployment rate is 5.6%, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025996 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 1.8% higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation in Lemon Tree Passage is lower at 43.5% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade is particularly strong with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, education & training is under-represented at 4.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 9.6%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by Census working population vs resident population counts. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, labour force decreased by 2.8% and employment fell by 1.1%, causing unemployment to drop by 1.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage's employment mix suggests local employment growth of 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that median income in Lemon Tree Passage is $41,353 and average income stands at $50,258. In comparison, Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $45,017 (median) and $54,711 (average). Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage fall between the 5th and 5th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 28.7% of locals, with incomes ranging from $800 to $1,499, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 to $2,999 range dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Lemon Tree Passage, as per the latest Census, was 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage was 45.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented ones at 26.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Lemon Tree Passage was $365, slightly higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $360. Nationally, Lemon Tree Passage's median monthly mortgage repayment was significantly lower at $1,600 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while its median weekly rent figure of $365 was less than the national figure of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.7% of all households, including 19.3% couples with children, 35.1% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Lemon Tree Passage exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 12.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 47.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 10.7% and certificates at 37.0%.

A total of 23.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 22 active transport stops in Lemon Tree Passage, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 20 different routes, offering a total of 244 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 176 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency is 34 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Lemon Tree Passage, with various health conditions affecting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (around 1,260 people), compared to 50.1% across the Rest of NSW, which is below the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 14.5% and 11.0% of residents respectively.

Conversely, 53.1% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 59.3% across the Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.4% (790 people), compared to 28.1% in the Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Lemon Tree Passage perform better than the general population in terms of health metrics.

Lemon Tree Passage is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage, as per the census data from June 2016, had a lower than average cultural diversity. The population was predominantly citizens at 89.6%, with 87.6% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the major religion, accounting for 54.4% of the population, compared to 57.4% across the Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (34.1%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (8.6%). Notably, French ethnicity was higher at 0.6%, Australian Aboriginal was slightly lower at 4.4%, and Scottish was marginally higher at 8.6% compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 4.5%, and 8.3% respectively.

Lemon Tree Passage ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Lemon Tree Passage's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Lemon Tree Passage at 17.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 9.0%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group grew from 9.3% to 10.8% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 7.7% to 9.1%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 10.7% to 9.0%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 18.7% to 17.4%. By 2041, Lemon Tree Passage is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 38%, reaching 338 people from the current 244. Meanwhile, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 20%.