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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Lemon Tree Passage is $750k, with units at $585k. House values have moved 3.9% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Lemon Tree Passage has an estimated 2,695 residents. That puts 907 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to evaluations of broader regional ABS population releases and post-Census address validations conducted by AreaSearch, the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage has an estimated resident count of roughly 2,695 as of Aug 2026. This marks an addition of 9 people (0.3%) relative to the 2021 Census tally of 2,686 people. The progression is drawn from AreaSearch's resident estimate of 2,688, formulated using the June 2025 ABS ERP figures alongside subsequent address validations. The resulting population density stands at 907 persons per square kilometer, aligning closely with benchmark averages across AreaSearch study locations.
Inward movement from overseas served as the primary growth catalyst, generating roughly 50.0% of all recent population additions. Projections for each SA2 region are drawn from 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia releases utilizing a 2022 baseline, while locations outside this scope incorporate 2022 NSW State Government SA2 modeling anchored to 2021. Cohort-specific growth rates derived from these datasets are carried forward across all districts for the 2032 to 2041 period. Based on these projected demographic transitions, the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage is anticipated to outpace the median expansion rate for non-metropolitan locations, adding 366 persons by 2041 under aggregated SA2 modeling, which translates to a cumulative expansion of 13.3% across the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Detail
Residential building approvals in Lemon Tree Passage remain subdued, averaging less than 1 new dwellings on an annual basis (minimal dwellings across the entire five-year span). Such modest construction volumes are typical in non-urban settings where residential requirements are limited and building volumes are constrained by local demand and existing infrastructure limits. Because total approval counts are so small, solitary development applications can exert a notable effect on yearly growth rates and comparative metrics. Residential building output in Lemon Tree Passage falls well short of activity levels across Rest of NSW.
Construction rates in the locality also trail national benchmarks by a substantial margin.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Lemon Tree Passage
Loading development applications…
| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 44 current infrastructure and development projects close to Lemon Tree Passage, worth an estimated $2.15 billion. 7 are already under construction and 17 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and tourism. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local planning strategies, capital works, and infrastructure upgrades play a crucial role in shaping a district's trajectory. Currently, no major infrastructure initiatives have been identified by AreaSearch as having a direct impact on the immediate area. Broad regional planning and infrastructure references include the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), the Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, the Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and the Newcastle Offshore Wind Project, with the most relevant items detailed in the accompanying overview.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
The Caswell Supported Living Village
The Caswell is an over 55s supported independent living village being constructed on the site of the former Tilligerry Plaza in Tanilba Bay. The development comprises 51 self-contained one and two-bedroom villas integrated with 24/7 care management services, a community clubhouse, and dedicated recreational amenities.
57-59 Beatty Boulevard Mixed-Use Retail + Childcare Centre
A purpose-built facility featuring an 81-place childcare centre operated by Discover and Learn Academy, along with 104sqm of separate office space. The project includes 25 car spaces and was completed in late 2024, providing early education and community services in Tanilba Bay.
Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP)
Comprehensive planning documents that guide planning decisions, land use, zoning, development standards, and assessment requirements for the entire Port Stephens local government area, which includes Fingal Bay. The Development Control Plan (DCP) provides further detailed guidance to the broader Local Environmental Plan (LEP).
36 Port Stephens Drive Residential Development
A 46-hectare development site at 36 Port Stephens Drive in Anna Bay, currently offered for sale by Expressions of Interest. The site presents a prime opportunity for residential subdivision, land lease communities, or housing estates. Note: A nearby planning proposal by AB Rise Pty Ltd for 584 homes on a 125ha site (Gan Gan Road) was rejected on appeal in 2025 due to flooding and ecological concerns, highlighting the area's strict environmental considerations.
Salamander Bay Shopping Centre Expansion
Commercial hub expansion including standalone ALDI store, Woolworths service station, medical centre, specialty retail outlets, and enhanced parking facilities. The shopping centre was acquired by Charter Hall Group for $174.5 million in 2017 and rebranded as Salamander Bay Square.
The Bay Resort
A State Significant Development proposal (SSD-5916) for an eco-tourism resort called 'The Bay Resort' at 4177 Nelson Bay Road, Anna Bay, opposite the Caltex service station. The development comprises 68 units, 51 villas, and a multi-purpose amenity building with a cafe, gym, and administration building, accessed via raised boardwalks with saltmarsh restoration and water sensitive urban design. The original 2015 application was refused by the state government in February 2020 on grounds it did not adequately assess environmental and community impacts.A redesigned, lighter-footprint version was placed back on public exhibition in 2021. The NSW Planning Portal now lists the project's current status as Determination, with the application refused and the Land and Environment Court recorded as the decider. The site remains zoned RU2 Rural Landscape and there is no evidence of an active resubmission at this address.
Salamander Bay Town Centre Place Plan
Port Stephens Council's adopted place plan for Salamander Bay Town Centre sets a long-term framework to strengthen the Tomaree Peninsula's key commercial and community hub. The plan supports public domain improvements, better pedestrian and traffic circulation, activation, public art, landscaping, protection of nearby wetland and koala habitat values, and future mixed-use outcomes. Current implementation includes council-owned development opportunities at 10 Central Avenue for a health facility, with expressions of interest closing 26 May 2026, and 155 Salamander Way for retail, local services and diverse low-rise to mid-rise housing, with the next step being lodgement of a development application.
100 Salamander Way Residential Development
Council-led planning proposal to rezone 88 hectares of land to deliver approximately 110 residential lots with mixed-density housing including detached houses, townhouses and multi-dwelling units for over 300 residents. The development will retain 83% of the site (73 hectares) for environmental conservation through biobanking, with a 1-hectare tree planting buffer zone to support wildlife movement. Proceeds from land sales will fund the Roads Acceleration Program, intersection upgrades including a new roundabout at the Salamander Way entrance, footpath connections to the Salamander Bay Town Centre, and environmental management.Public exhibition and a public hearing are expected to commence early 2026.
987 residents of Lemon Tree Passage are employed, from a labour force of 1,045. Unemployment sits at 5.6%, with participation at 44.3%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.3% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 2,241, about 83% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local labour market across Lemon Tree Passage features an even distribution of blue-collar and white-collar roles, with a marked concentration in industrial and manufacturing activities, an unemployment rate of 5.6%, and an estimated 2.6% rise in jobs over the preceding year per AreaSearch regional aggregations. As of March 2026, working residents numbered 987, while the local jobless rate sits 1.4% higher than the 4.1% recorded across Regional NSW, and the local labour participation rate of 44.3% trails the Regional NSW benchmark of 60.6%. Census figures showed 19.0% of workers operating from home, though pandemic-related movement restrictions should be factored into this figure.
The primary employment fields for local residents are construction, retail trade, along with health care & social assistance. Local workers are heavily concentrated in retail trade, where the employment concentration reaches 1.3 times the broader regional benchmark. In contrast, education & training accounts for only 4.5% of workers compared to the 9.6% regional standard. Comparing resident worker counts with local Census workforce numbers suggests that employment opportunities within the immediate locality remain constrained. AreaSearch evaluations of broader ABS and SALM series indicate that during the 12 months to March 2026, local employment expanded by 2.6% alongside a 1.1% increase in the workforce, driving a 1.4 percentage points reduction in unemployment. Over the identical timeframe across Regional NSW, employment retreated by 0.9%, the overall workforce shrank by 0.4%, and unemployment increased by 0.5 percentage points. Future staffing trends in Lemon Tree Passage can be examined against Mar-26 employment outlooks published by Jobs and Skills Australia. Projecting these five-year and ten-year nationwide sectoral forecasts across the community's employment structure indicates potential job gains of 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, against national baseline expectations of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (noting this represents a baseline weighted extrapolation that excludes localized demographic projections).
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Lemon Tree Passage is $1,071 a week (about $56,000 a year), with median personal income at $533 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $41,353 a year against an average of $50,258. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO postcode statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 indicate that taxpayers in the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage recorded a median income of $41,353 and an average income of $50,258. These earnings fall below national figures as well as Regional NSW medians and averages of $52,390 and $65,215, respectively. Adjusting for a 10.32% rise in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023 places updated estimates at roughly $45,621 for the median and $55,445 for the average as of March 2026. In the 2021 Census, individual, household, and family earnings across Lemon Tree Passage all placed between the 5th and 5th percentiles across Australia.
A total of 773 residents (28.7% of the community) fell into the $800 - 1,499 bracket, contrasting with the regional concentration of 29.9% in the $1,500 - 2,999 tier. Local housing costs exert significant financial strain, leaving households with 81.3% of income remaining and placing the area in the 6th percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Lemon Tree Passage had 1,110 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 88% detached houses and 1% apartments. 29% are owned with a mortgage, 26% rented and 45% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $365 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,600 a month. Rent absorbs 34.1% of household income here and mortgage repayments 34.5%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
At the most recent Census, separate houses made up 87.9% of the housing stock in Lemon Tree Passage, while semi-detached homes, apartments, and other residential formats accounted for 12.1%, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings throughout Regional NSW. Fully owned properties accounted for 45.3% of local homes, substantially higher than the Regional NSW standard, while 28.6% were held under a mortgage and 26.1% were rental properties. Typical monthly mortgage payments stood at $1,600 and weekly median rents were $365, compared to Regional NSW benchmarks of $1,733 and $330.
Nationally, local mortgage commitments remain well below the Australian average of $1,863, with median rental rates tracking below the wider Australian level of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Lemon Tree Passage counted 1,110 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.3 people each. 19% are couples with children, fewer than in 88% of areas nationally, against 35% couples without children. 29% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.0 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Family arrangements constitute 67.7% of local residences, consisting of couples without children (35.1%), couples with children (19.3%), and single parent families (12.3%). The remaining 32.3% consists of non-family living situations, led by single-person households at 28.6% and group households at 3.7%. Across the community, the median household size is 2.3 people, tracking slightly smaller than the 2.4 average seen across Regional NSW.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
12.3% of adults in Lemon Tree Passage hold a university qualification, including 8.6% with a bachelor degree and 1.9% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 37.0% hold a vocational qualification. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Tertiary attainment represents a notable development area for the community, as only 12.3% of residents hold university degrees compared to the 32.2% NSW benchmark, highlighting a clear focal point for future learning programs. Bachelor degrees form the primary higher education qualification at 8.6%, with postgraduate qualifications at 1.9% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational and technical pathways are heavily represented, with 47.7% of residents aged 15+ possessing vocational certifications, comprising 37.0% with certificates and 10.7% holding advanced diplomas. Formal studies occupy 23.5% of the local population. Within this student cohort, 9.0% attend primary schooling, 7.5% are enrolled in secondary education, and 1.9% are engaged in tertiary courses.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Lemon Tree Passage reaches 22 stops on 20 routes, timetabled for about 240 services a week. The typical home sits about 180 m from its nearest stop. Households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport networks in Lemon Tree Passage encompass 22 bus stops connecting with 20 individual routes that collectively deliver 244 weekly passenger trips. Transit access is rated as excellent, with households situated an average of 176 meters from their closest boarding point. Given the predominantly residential character of the suburb, outbound travel is common, and private vehicles remain the dominant travel choice at 97%. Vehicle ownership across local households averages 1.4 per dwelling, while 19.0% of workers carried out their duties from home according to the 2021 Census under possible COVID-19 influences.
Across all transit routes, service frequencies average 34 trips per day, translating to roughly 11 weekly trips at each separate stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
53.1% of residents in Lemon Tree Passage report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 90% of areas nationally. 8.2% need daily assistance with core activities, and 46.9% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Mortality metrics and chronic illness patterns evaluated by AreaSearch highlight significant health challenges in Lemon Tree Passage, with common conditions observed across both younger and older residents, while private health insurance uptake is particularly constrained at roughly 47% of the population (~1,263 people). By comparison, coverage reaches 51.9% in Regional NSW and 55.7% across Australia. Arthritis and mental health conditions represent the most prevalent diagnoses locally, affecting 14.5% and 11.0% of the population, respectively, while 53.1% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW.
Working-age residents face elevated chronic disease burdens, while older residents aged 65 and over comprise 31.1% of the population (838 people), above the 23.3% regional benchmark. Senior health metrics present notable challenges, with broader rankings aligning generally with the national profile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Lemon Tree Passage is largely Australian-born, at 87.6% of residents, with 4.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (34.1%) and Australian (29.0%). 4.4% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity measures in Lemon Tree Passage sit below broader standards, with Australian citizens making up 89.6% of residents, 87.6% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking only English at home. Christianity forms the predominant faith, practiced by 54.4% of the population, closely mirroring the 55.9% proportion across Regional NSW. Looking at parental heritage, the three largest ancestry groups in Lemon Tree Passage are English (34.1%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (8.6%). Specific background groups also display distinct representation patterns, with French ancestry accounting for 0.6% locally (compared to 0.4% regionally), Scottish ancestry representing 8.6% (compared to 8.0%), and Australian Aboriginal background comprising 4.4% (compared to 4.6%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Lemon Tree Passage is 51, older than 94% of areas nationally. That is 1 year younger than at the 2021 Census. 18.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The age distribution in the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage leans older when compared to Regional NSW. According to AreaSearch's August 2026 figures, seniors and retirees aged 65+ make up 31.1% of the community versus 23.3% regionally, while youth and children aged 0 - 24 represent 23.8% against 29.3% in Regional NSW. As at August 2026, the estimated median age is 51, down from 52 at the 2021 Census, yet 8 years higher than the Regional NSW median of 43 at that Census, while the national median was 38 at the same Census.
The most noticeable cohort shift since the Census occurred among residents aged 25 - 44, who rose from 17.0% to an estimated 20.0%. Moving toward 2041, residents aged 45 - 64 are projected to drive the majority of population gains, expanding by 136 residents (19%) to a total of 856.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Lemon Tree Passage
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 5 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (2,686 at the 2021 Census → 2,695 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL12309). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.