Lemon Tree Passage

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lemon Tree Passage reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Lemon Tree Passage is around 2,734 people. This figure reflects an increase of 48 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,686 people. AreaSearch's analysis, based on resident population estimates from June 2024 ABS ERP data and address validation since the Census date, suggests a population of 2,728 for Lemon Tree Passage. This results in a density ratio of approximately 920 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed roughly 50% to recent population gains in the suburb.

AreaSearch's projections are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas until 2041. By 2041, Lemon Tree Passage is projected to grow by 391 persons, reflecting an overall gain of 14.4% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lemon Tree Passage according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lemon Tree Passage had four new dwelling approvals between 2016 and 2020. This averages less than one annually. Such low development levels are typical of rural areas with modest housing needs and limited construction activity due to local demand and infrastructure capacity.

The small sample size means individual projects can significantly impact annual growth statistics. Compared to Rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage has substantially lower development levels. It also falls below national averages in new building activity. Of the approved dwellings, 50% were detached houses and 50% medium or high-density housing. This shift from the current 88% house mix reflects reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands and affordability needs. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 1364, indicating a quiet, low-activity development environment.

Lemon Tree Passage has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No factors impact an area's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects likely to affect this area. Key projects include Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and Newcastle Offshore Wind Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lemon Tree Passage face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lemon Tree Passage has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent.

The unemployment rate is 6.3%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025991 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 2.7% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation stands at 43.5%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, education & training has a lower representation at 4.5% compared to the regional average of 9.6%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force decreased by 4.2%, while employment declined by the same percentage, with unemployment remaining stable. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Lemon Tree Passage had a median taxpayer income of $41,353 and an average of $50,258. These figures are below the national averages. Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Lemon Tree Passage as of September 2025 would be approximately $46,568 (median) and $56,596 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage all fall between the 5th and 5th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data shows that 28.7% of locals (784 people) have incomes in the $800 - $1,499 category, contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lemon Tree Passage, as per the latest Census evaluation, 87.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 12.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage stood at 45.3%, similar to Non-Metro NSW. The rest of the dwellings were either mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (26.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Lemon Tree Passage was $365, slightly higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $360 but less than the national average of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 67.7 percent of all households, including 19.3 percent that are couples with children, 35.1 percent that are couples without children, and 12.3 percent that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3 percent, with lone person households at 28.6 percent and group households comprising 3.7 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Lemon Tree Passage exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 12.3%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (8.6%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 47.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (37.0%). A total of 23.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 9.0% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Educational facilities seem to lie outside immediate catchment boundaries, necessitating families to access schools in neighboring areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 20 active stops operating in Lemon Tree Passage, with a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 20 individual routes, offering 269 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 176 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lemon Tree Passage faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% (~1,281 people), compared to 49.3% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. The most common conditions are arthritis (14.5%) and mental health issues (11.0%), while 53.1% report no medical ailments, lower than the 59.3% in Rest of NSW.

Residents aged 65 and over comprise 29.4% (803 people), higher than the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes present challenges but are better than general population metrics.

Lemon Tree Passage is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage had low cultural diversity, with 89.6% citizens, 87.6% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 54.4%, compared to 57.4% regionally. Top ancestral groups were English (34.1%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notable differences included French being overrepresented at 0.6% versus 0.4% regionally, Australian Aboriginal at 4.4% versus 4.5%, and Scottish at 8.6% versus 8.3%.

Lemon Tree Passage ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Lemon Tree Passage's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Lemon Tree Passage at 17.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 9.0%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 9.3% to 10.8%, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 7.7% to 9.1%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.7% to 9.0%, and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 18.7% to 17.4%. By 2041, Lemon Tree Passage is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 36%, reaching 338 people from the current 248. Meanwhile, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 24%.