Lemon Tree Passage

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lemon Tree Passage reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Lemon Tree Passage is around 2,688. This reflects an increase of 2 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,686. The current resident population estimate of 2,682 was derived from AreaSearch's analysis of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 905 persons per square kilometer, roughly inline with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 50% of overall population gains during recent periods.

Population projections for Lemon Tree Passage are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using a 2022 base year for covered areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by 402 persons, reflecting a total gain of 16.5% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Lemon Tree Passage is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lemon Tree Passage has seen minimal new dwelling approvals annually, with less than one new dwelling approved each year over the past five years. This low level of development is typical in rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It should be noted that the small sample size means individual projects can significantly influence annual growth statistics.

Development levels in Lemon Tree Passage are substantially lower than those in the Rest of NSW, with its development pattern well below national averages.

Lemon Tree Passage has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, or planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are likely to affect this area. Notable ones include Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and Newcastle Offshore Wind Project. The following list details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Lemon Tree Passage faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Lemon Tree Passage has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent, with an unemployment rate of 5.7% as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, there were 987 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 1.9% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Lemon Tree Passage is lower at 45.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 19.0% of residents work from home. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, education & training is under-represented with only 4.5% of Lemon Tree Passage's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 9.6%. The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period, labour force decreased by 3.1%, employment declined by 1.6%, and unemployment fell by 1.4 percentage points in Lemon Tree Passage. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that median income in Lemon Tree Passage is $41,353 and average income is $50,258. This is lower than Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Lemon Tree Passage would be approximately $45,017 and average income would be around $54,711 by that date. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage all fall between the 5th percentile nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 28.7% of locals (771 people) with incomes between $800 - $1,499, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 category dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lemon Tree Passage, as per the latest Census evaluation, 87.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 12.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage stood at 45.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented ones at 26.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Lemon Tree Passage was $365, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $330. Nationally, Lemon Tree Passage's median monthly mortgage repayment was significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while its median weekly rent was less than the national figure of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households, including 19.3% that are couples with children, 35.1% that are couples without children, and 12.3% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Lemon Tree Passage exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 12.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 47.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (37.0%).

A substantial 23.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lemon Tree Passage has 22 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 20 different routes that together provide 244 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 176 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its primarily residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 97%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.4 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 19% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 34 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lemon Tree Passage faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% of the total population (around 1,260 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 14.5% of residents) and mental health issues (11.0%). Conversely, 53.1% of residents reported no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population health challenges are notable due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.6% (795 people), compared to 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Lemon Tree Passage is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage, assessed in terms of cultural diversity, showed a majority population: 89.6% were citizens, 87.6% were born in Australia, and 95.6% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 54.4%, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were English (34.1%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, French ethnicity was higher in Lemon Tree Passage at 0.6% compared to the regional average of 0.4%. Australian Aboriginal representation was 4.4%, close to the regional figure of 4.6%, while Scottish ancestry was slightly higher at 8.6% compared to the region's 8.0%.

Lemon Tree Passage ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Lemon Tree Passage's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Lemon Tree Passage at 17.5%, while the 5-14 year-olds are under-represented at 8.8%. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national average of 9.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 9.3% to 11.1%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 7.7% to 9.2%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.7% to 8.8%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.7% to 10.3%. By 2041, Lemon Tree Passage is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 45 to 54 group will grow by 32%, reaching 366 people from 276. Meanwhile, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 11%.