Lemon Tree Passage

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lemon Tree Passage reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated for the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage, the estimated population as of Feb 2026 is around 2,688. This figure reflects an increase of 2 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,686. The current resident population estimate of 2,682 is inferred from AreaSearch's examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 905 persons per square kilometer, aligned with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 50.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch's projections for Lemon Tree Passage are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for locations outside capital cities, projecting Lemon Tree Passage's population to grow by 405 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 14.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Lemon Tree Passage is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Lemon Tree Passage has seen minimal construction activity in recent years. Less than one new dwelling is approved annually on average over the past five years. This low level of development is typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that due to the small sample size, individual development projects can significantly influence annual growth and relative statistics. Compared to Rest of NSW, Lemon Tree Passage has substantially lower development levels. Its development pattern also falls well below national averages.

Lemon Tree Passage has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can influence an area's performance more than modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely to impact the area. Key projects include Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and Newcastle Offshore Wind Project. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Lemon Tree Passage faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Lemon Tree Passage has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 5.8%.

Employment stability over the past year was relatively stable. As of December 2025993 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.8% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation was significantly lower at 44.8%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 19.0% of residents worked from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered.

Key industries of employment were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade was particularly strong, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, education & training was under-represented at 4.5% compared to Regional NSW's 9.6%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 0.4%, while labour force decreased by 1.0%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 1.2%, labour force contract by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Lemon Tree Passage. Over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Lemon Tree Passage's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Lemon Tree Passage was $41,353 and average income was $50,258. This is below Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Lemon Tree Passage would be approximately $45,017 and average income would be around $54,711 by then. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Lemon Tree Passage fall between the 5th and 5th percentiles nationally. The most common income bracket in Lemon Tree Passage is $800 - $1,499, with 28.7% of locals (771 people) falling into this category, unlike regional levels where the dominant bracket is $1,500 - $2,999 at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lemon Tree Passage, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Lemon Tree Passage is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Lemon Tree Passage, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.9% houses and 12.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lemon Tree Passage stood at 45.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented ones at 26.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,600, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Lemon Tree Passage was $365, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Lemon Tree Passage's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Lemon Tree Passage has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.7% of all households, including 19.3% that are couples with children, 35.1% that are couples without children, and 12.3% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.3%, with lone person households at 28.6% and group households comprising 3.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Lemon Tree Passage exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates of 12.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 47.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (37.0%). A total of 23.5% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.0% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

A substantial 23.5% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 22 active transport stops operating within Lemon Tree Passage. These stops are serviced by 20 individual routes, collectively providing 244 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 176 meters from the nearest transport stop. As of the 2021 Census, most residents commute outward, with car remaining the dominant mode at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. Some 19.0% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 34 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lemon Tree Passage is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lemon Tree Passage faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low, at approximately 47% of the total population (around 1,260 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 14.5% and 11.0% of residents respectively. However, 53.1% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 30.1% of residents aged 65 and over (809 people), higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Lemon Tree Passage is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Lemon Tree Passage, as per the findings, had a below average cultural diversity level, with 89.6% of its population being citizens, 87.6% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was found to be the predominant religion, making up 54.4% of Lemon Tree Passage's population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (34.1%), Australian (29.0%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, French ethnicity was overrepresented at 0.6%, Australian Aboriginal at 4.4%, and Scottish at 8.6%.

Lemon Tree Passage ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Lemon Tree Passage's median age is 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented locally at 17.7%, compared to the Regional NSW average, while those aged 5-14 are under-represented at 8.9%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35-44 age group has grown from 9.3% to 11.3%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 7.7% to 9.4%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has declined from 10.7% to 8.9%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 11.7% to 10.4%. By 2041, Lemon Tree Passage is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 31%, reaching 365 people from the current 279. Meanwhile, numbers in the 15-24 age range are expected to fall by 17%.