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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
The median house price in Lemon Tree Passage is $750k, with units at $585k. House values have moved 3.9% a year compounded over five years.
Curious about local property values? Filter the chart to assess the volume and appreciation (including resales) trends and regional comparisons, or scroll to the map below view this information at an individual property level.
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Sales Detail
Lemon Tree Passage has an estimated 2,690 residents. That puts 906 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
According to ABS population updates for the wider region and new addresses verified by AreaSearch after the Census, the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage has a population estimated at 2,690 as of May 2026. This represents an increase of 4 people (0.1%) since the 2021 Census, when the count was 2,686 people. This shift is derived from a resident population of 2,687, estimated by AreaSearch using the ABS June 2025 ERP data release alongside address verification since the Census. This population level translates to a density of 905 persons per square kilometer, matching typical averages across areas evaluated by AreaSearch.
Overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth, accounting for approximately 50.0% of the total demographic gains in recent times. For projected demographics, AreaSearch uses SA2 projections released by ABS and Geoscience Australia in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. In cases where SA2 areas lack this coverage, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are utilised. Age cohort growth rates from these sources are projected forward to years 2032 to 2041. Looking at future population trends in the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage, demographic expansion is anticipated to exceed the median for non-metropolitan areas. The locality is projected to add 375 residents by 2041 based on compiled SA2 projections, representing a total increase of 13.8% over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Detail
Residential construction in Lemon Tree Passage is extremely quiet, averaging fewer than single digit dwelling approvals per year, with a total of 3 dwellings approved over the five-year period. Minimal construction is typical for rural settings where housing requirements are modest and building activity is restricted by local demand and infrastructure limits. Because of the small sample size, individual building projects can significantly skew yearly growth and comparative data. The volume of property development in Lemon Tree Passage is substantially below the levels observed in the Rest of NSW. Additionally, construction activity is far weaker than national averages.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Lemon Tree Passage
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
|---|
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 44 current infrastructure and development projects close to Lemon Tree Passage, worth an estimated $2.15 billion. 7 are already under construction and 15 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans residential development, communities, precincts & urban renewal and tourism. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and major works are critical drivers of regional performance. No projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are expected to influence this locality. Relevant regional initiatives include the Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), the Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, the Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm, and the Newcastle Offshore Wind Project, with details on the most significant ones provided below.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.
Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
The Caswell Supported Living Village
The Caswell is an over 55s supported independent living village being constructed on the site of the former Tilligerry Plaza in Tanilba Bay. The development comprises 51 self-contained one and two-bedroom villas integrated with 24/7 care management services, a community clubhouse, and dedicated recreational amenities.
57-59 Beatty Boulevard Mixed-Use Retail + Childcare Centre
A purpose-built facility featuring an 81-place childcare centre operated by Discover and Learn Academy, along with 104sqm of separate office space. The project includes 25 car spaces and was completed in late 2024, providing early education and community services in Tanilba Bay.
Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP)
Comprehensive planning documents that guide planning decisions, land use, zoning, development standards, and assessment requirements for the entire Port Stephens local government area, which includes Fingal Bay. The Development Control Plan (DCP) provides further detailed guidance to the broader Local Environmental Plan (LEP).
36 Port Stephens Drive Residential Development
A 46-hectare development site at 36 Port Stephens Drive in Anna Bay, currently offered for sale by Expressions of Interest. The site presents a prime opportunity for residential subdivision, land lease communities, or housing estates. Note: A nearby planning proposal by AB Rise Pty Ltd for 584 homes on a 125ha site (Gan Gan Road) was rejected on appeal in 2025 due to flooding and ecological concerns, highlighting the area's strict environmental considerations.
Salamander Bay Shopping Centre Expansion
Commercial hub expansion including standalone ALDI store, Woolworths service station, medical centre, specialty retail outlets, and enhanced parking facilities. The shopping centre was acquired by Charter Hall Group for $174.5 million in 2017 and rebranded as Salamander Bay Square.
The Bay Resort
A State Significant Development proposal (SSD-5916) for an eco-tourism resort called 'The Bay Resort' at 4177 Nelson Bay Road, Anna Bay, opposite the Caltex service station. The development comprises 68 units, 51 villas, and a multi-purpose amenity building with a cafe, gym, and administration building, accessed via raised boardwalks with saltmarsh restoration and water sensitive urban design. The original 2015 application was refused by the state government in February 2020 on grounds it did not adequately assess environmental and community impacts.A redesigned, lighter-footprint version was placed back on public exhibition in 2021. The NSW Planning Portal now lists the project's current status as Determination, with the application refused and the Land and Environment Court recorded as the decider. The site remains zoned RU2 Rural Landscape and there is no evidence of an active resubmission at this address.
Salamander Bay Town Centre Place Plan
Port Stephens Council's adopted place plan for Salamander Bay Town Centre sets a long-term framework to strengthen the Tomaree Peninsula's key commercial and community hub. The plan supports public domain improvements, better pedestrian and traffic circulation, activation, public art, landscaping, protection of nearby wetland and koala habitat values, and future mixed-use outcomes. Current implementation includes council-owned development opportunities at 10 Central Avenue for a health facility, with expressions of interest closing 26 May 2026, and 155 Salamander Way for retail, local services and diverse low-rise to mid-rise housing, with the next step being lodgement of a development application.
100 Salamander Way Residential Development
Council-led planning proposal to rezone 88 hectares of land to deliver approximately 110 residential lots with mixed-density housing including detached houses, townhouses and multi-dwelling units for over 300 residents. The development will retain 83% of the site (73 hectares) for environmental conservation through biobanking, with a 1-hectare tree planting buffer zone to support wildlife movement. Proceeds from land sales will fund the Roads Acceleration Program, intersection upgrades including a new roundabout at the Salamander Way entrance, footpath connections to the Salamander Bay Town Centre, and environmental management.Public exhibition and a public hearing are expected to commence early 2026.
972 residents of Lemon Tree Passage are employed, from a labour force of 1,030. Unemployment sits at 5.6%, with participation at 43.7%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.3% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. The working-day population is estimated at 2,244, about 83% of the resident population, so more people leave the area for work than travel in. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
The local workforce is evenly divided between professional and industrial roles, with strong representation in manufacturing and trade sectors. The unemployment rate sits at 5.6%, and employment grew by 2.1% over the past year, according to aggregated statistical data. In March 2026, there were 972 working residents. The unemployment rate is 1.5% higher than the 4.1% recorded in Regional NSW, while workforce participation is significantly lower at 43.7% compared to 60.6% in Regional NSW. Census data indicates that a moderate 19.0% of residents worked from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of pandemic lockdowns.
The main employment sectors for local residents are healthcare & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade is a particular area of local specialization, with an employment share that is 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, education & training is under-represented, accounting for only 4.5% of the workforce compared to 9.6% across Regional NSW. Comparing the number of working residents to local jobs in the Census indicates that local employment options are limited. Based on SALM and ABS statistics aggregated from broader regions, local employment expanded by 2.1% over the 12-month period, while the labor force grew by 0.7%, leading to a 1.3 percentage point drop in unemployment. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced a 0.9% decrease in employment, a 0.4% decline in the labor force, and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia released in May-25 provide context for future workforce demands. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary widely by sector. Applying these trends to the local industry mix suggests employment in the area could rise by 6.3% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighted extrapolation that does not account for local population projections.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Lemon Tree Passage is $1,071 a week (about $56,000 a year), with median personal income at $533 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $41,353 a year against an average of $50,258. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
The latest postcode-level ATO statistics for the financial year 2023 show that incomes in the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage are below national benchmarks, with a median of $41,353 and an average of $50,258. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Adjusting for a 10.32% rise in the Wage Price Index since the financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 are approximately $45,621 for the median and $55,445 for the average. According to the Census, household, family, and individual incomes all fall between the 5th and 5th percentiles nationally.
The largest income bracket contains 28.7% of residents (772 people) earning between $800 and $1,499, differing from regional trends where the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket is largest at 29.9%. Affordability is a major challenge, with residents retaining only 81.3% of their income after housing costs, placing the area in the 6th percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Lemon Tree Passage had 1,110 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 88% detached houses and 1% apartments. 29% are owned with a mortgage, 26% rented and 45% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $365 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,600 a month. Rent absorbs 34.1% of household income here and mortgage repayments 34.5%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
Residential housing structure in the area at the latest Census consisted of 87.9% standalone houses and 12.1% alternative dwellings such as townhouses, apartments, or other structures, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings in Regional NSW. Home ownership was high at 45.3%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (28.6%) or occupied by renters (26.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,600, which is below the Regional NSW average of $1,733. The median weekly rent was $365, compared to $330 in Regional NSW. Nationally, local mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are below the national median of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Lemon Tree Passage counted 1,110 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.3 people each. 19% are couples with children, fewer than in 88% of areas nationally, against 35% couples without children. 29% of households are people living alone, and families average 2.0 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families make up the majority of households at 67.7%, consisting of couples with children at 19.3%, couples without children at 35.1%, and single-parent households at 12.3%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 32.3%, comprising single-person households at 28.6% and group households at 3.7%. The median household size of 2.3 individuals is slightly smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
12.3% of adults in Lemon Tree Passage hold a university qualification, including 8.6% with a bachelor degree and 1.9% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 37.0% hold a vocational qualification. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Educational attainment levels present a challenge, as the university qualification rate of 12.3% is much lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This gap offers an opportunity for targeted local training programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common tertiary qualification at 8.6%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 1.9% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational and technical skills are strong, with 47.7% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, including advanced diplomas (10.7%) and certificates (37.0%). A significant 23.5% of residents are enrolled in formal study. This student population includes 9.0% in primary school, 7.5% in high school, and 1.9% in tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Lemon Tree Passage reaches 22 stops on 20 routes, timetabled for about 240 services a week. The typical home sits about 180 m from its nearest stop. Households keep an average of 1.4 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Public transport options include 22 active bus stops operating locally. These stops are served by 20 distinct routes, which provide a total of 244 weekly passenger services. Transport access is highly convenient, with residents living an average of 176 meters from their nearest stop. Because this is mainly a residential suburb, most workers commute out of the area, and private vehicles are the primary mode of travel for 97% of commuters. Households own an average of 1.4 vehicles. About 19.0% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.
Bus services average 34 runs per day across all active routes, which translates to roughly 11 weekly services for each individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
53.1% of residents in Lemon Tree Passage report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 90% of areas nationally. 8.2% need daily assistance with core activities, and 46.9% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 5.8 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Health indicators highlight significant issues for residents, based on mortality rates and the prevalence of chronic illnesses across young and old age groups. The rate of private health insurance is low, covering approximately 47% of the population (~1,261 people). This is lower than the 51.9% average for Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%. Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent medical issues, affecting 14.5% and 11.0% of residents. Meanwhile, 53.1% of the population reported no chronic health conditions, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age cohort shows elevated rates of chronic illness, and seniors aged 65 and over make up 30.9% of the population (831 people), compared to 23.4% regionally.
Health outcomes for older residents are generally consistent with national trends.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Lemon Tree Passage is largely Australian-born, at 87.6% of residents, with 4.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (34.1%) and Australian (29.0%). 4.4% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity is lower than average, with citizens making up 89.6% of the population, 87.6% born in Australia, and 95.6% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 54.4% of residents, which is comparable to the 55.9% recorded across Regional NSW. In terms of ancestral backgrounds, the three largest groups are English at 34.1%, Australian at 29.0%, and Irish at 8.6%. Some ethnic backgrounds show variations from regional averages: French ancestry is slightly higher at 0.6% (compared to 0.4% regionally), Australian Aboriginal ancestry stands at 4.4% (compared to 4.6% regionally), and Scottish ancestry is represented at 8.6% (compared to 8.0% regionally).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Lemon Tree Passage is 52, older than 94% of areas nationally. 18.7% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
The median age of 52 years in the suburb of Lemon Tree Passage is much higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 cohort is highly represented at 18.1%, compared to 9.2% for children aged 5 - 14. This older cohort is also much larger than the national average of 9.4%. Since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group increased from 9.3% to 11.3%, and the 75 to 84 group grew from 9.3% to 11.2%. In contrast, the 45 to 54 cohort shrank from 11.7% to 10.1%, and the 5 to 14 group fell from 10.7% to 9.2%.
Projections for 2041 suggest major shifts, with the 25 to 34 group growing by 34% (adding 81 people to reach 324), while the 15 to 24 group is expected to decline by 20 people.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Lemon Tree Passage
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Aug 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to May 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | May 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to May 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Jun 2026 2 months ago headline measures · May 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Aug 2026 this month all 21 measures |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Aug 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, Local governments Daily | May 2026 3 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated May 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 5 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Aug 2026 this month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Jul 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for May 2026, not a 2021 count (2,686 at the 2021 Census → 2,690 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to May 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL12309). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.