Tanilba Bay

Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Tanilba Bay's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 3,367 people. This figure reflects a growth of 130 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,237 people. The Tanilba Bay statistical area (Lv2) had a resident population of 3,360 as estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024. This estimate includes an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 258 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Tanilba Bay's growth of 4.0% since the census positions it competitively with other SA3 areas, being within 1.4 percentage points of their average growth rate of 5.4%.

Overseas migration contributed approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods in the Tanilba Bay (SA2). AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, the Tanilba Bay (SA2) is expected to increase by 577 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 14.9% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Tanilba Bay recorded approximately 19 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 97 homes. In FY-26, so far, 45 approvals have been recorded. The average new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is 0.9.

New supply appears to meet or exceed demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. Average construction value of new properties is $508,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. Commercial approvals this financial year total $1.9 million, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Tanilba Bay's development levels per person are similar to Rest of NSW, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area.

Recent construction comprises 70.0% detached houses and 30.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the area's existing housing composition of 93.0% houses. This indicates decreasing developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 313 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate Tanilba Bay will add 502 residents by 2041. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Tanilba Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely impacting the area: The Caswell Supported Living Village and Nelson Bay Road Duplication between Williamtown and Bobs Farm. Other key projects include Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), and Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program.

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Employment drivers in Tanilba Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tanilba Bay has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue-collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area, which had an unemployment rate of 5.4% as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there were 1,237 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Tanilba Bay was significantly lower at 46.6%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. Notably, the concentration in accommodation & food was high, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, education & training was under-represented, with only 5.3% of Tanilba Bay's workforce compared to 9.6% in Rest of NSW. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population figures. In the 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force decreased by 3.0%, alongside a 1.5% decline in employment, leading to a fall of 1.4 percentage points in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a rise of 0.4 percentage points in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 showed that NSW employment had contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state's unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggested that national employment would expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, although growth rates differed significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tanilba Bay's employment mix indicated that local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Tanilba Bay had a median taxpayer income of $45,155 and an average of $54,878 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $49,156 (median) and $59,740 (average). According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Tanilba Bay fall between the 9th and 9th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income distribution shows that the $800 - $1,499 bracket dominates with 29.5% of residents (993 people), contrasting with metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tanilba Bay, with only 81.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Tanilba Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings such as semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW which had 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tanilba Bay was at 43.0%, similar to Non-Metro NSW. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (29.4%) or rented (27.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure for Tanilba Bay was $380, slightly higher than Non-Metro NSW's $360 but lower than the national average of $375.

Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 70.0% of all households, including 22.4% couples with children, 33.8% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.0%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households making up 3.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (33.8%).

A significant 24.3% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, comprising 8.5% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 34 active public transport stops in Tanilba Bay, offering mixed bus services. These stops are served by 25 unique routes, facilitating a total of 269 weekly passenger trips. Residential accessibility to transport is rated excellent, with residents on average situated 162 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 38 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Tanilba Bay, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~1,639 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7 and 10.2% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 56.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 59.3% across Rest of NSW. The area has 28.2% of residents aged 65 and over (949 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tanilba Bay had a lower cultural diversity, with 88.5% born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 54.5%, compared to 57.4% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.4%), Australian (32.1%), and Scottish (7.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 5.4% (vs regional 4.5%), Macedonian at 0.2% (vs 0.1%), and Maltese at 0.5% (vs 0.5%).

Tanilba Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tanilba Bay's median age was 48 years in 2021, which is older than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 years and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constituted 10.7% of Tanilba Bay's population in the 2021 Census, while the 5-14 age group made up 9.5%, both figures being notably different from Rest of NSW's demographics. Comparing data from before and after the 2021 Census shows that the 35 to 44 age group grew from 9.6% to 11.1%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort decreased from 11.3% to 9.5%, and the 65 to 74 age group dropped from 15.5% to 14.3%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Tanilba Bay's age profile by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is expected to grow steadily, increasing by 125 people (35%) from 356 to 482. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 15-24 age groups.