Tanilba Bay

Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Tanilba Bay is around 3,421, reflecting an increase of 184 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 5.7% increase from the previous figure of 3,237 residents. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,418 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 18 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 262 persons per square kilometer. Tanilba Bay's growth rate exceeded that of both Rest of NSW (4.9%) and its SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 50% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Considering these projections, an above median population growth is expected nationally for non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the suburb of Tanilba Bay is projected to increase by 512 persons, reflecting a total increase of 14.9% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Tanilba Bay recorded around 19 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 97 homes. So far in FY26, 45 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately 318 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25 was 1.6.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $508,000, focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. There have been $1.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Recent construction comprises 70.0% detached houses and 30.0% townhouses or apartments, showing a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 93.0% houses. Future projections estimate Tanilba Bay adding 509 residents by 2041.

Existing development levels seem aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tanilba Bay has similar development levels per person, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area.

Tanilba Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely affecting this region: The Caswell Supported Living Village and Nelson Bay Road Duplication from Williamtown to Bobs Farm. Other notable initiatives include Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), and the Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program.

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Employment performance in Tanilba Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Tanilba Bay has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented with an unemployment rate of 5.4%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.4%.

As of December 2025, there were 1,296 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 1.5% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Tanilba Bay lagged significantly at 46.5%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 17.0% of residents worked from home. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food.

Notably, accommodation & food had employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. However, education & training was under-represented with only 5.3% of Tanilba Bay's workforce compared to Regional NSW's 9.6%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 1.4%, while labour force decreased by 0.1%, leading to a fall in unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a rise in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered insights into potential future demand within Tanilba Bay. These projections estimated national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tanilba Bay's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Tanilba Bay's median taxpayer income in financial year 2023 was $45,155. The average income for this period was $54,878. This is lower than the national average. In Regional NSW, the median income was $52,390 and the average was $65,215. By March 2026, estimates suggest Tanilba Bay's median income will be approximately $49,815 and the average will be around $60,541, based on a 10.32% growth in wages since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census data shows that incomes in Tanilba Bay fall between the 9th percentile for households, families, and individuals nationally. Income distribution reveals that the $800 - $1,499 bracket is dominant, with 29.5% of residents (1,009 people). This contrasts with metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tanilba Bay, with only 81.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tanilba Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tanilba Bay stood at 43.0%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (29.4%) or rented (27.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was $380, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tanilba Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.0% of all households, including 22.4% couples with children, 33.8% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.0%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (33.8%). A total of 24.3% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, with 8.5% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.3% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 34 active public transport stops in Tanilba Bay, offering mixed bus services. These stops are covered by 25 unique routes, collectively facilitating 269 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically residing 162 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 95%. Average vehicle ownership stands at 1.5 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 17% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 38 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tanilba Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tanilba Bay faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment completed on June 10th, 20XX. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were found to be substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover was notably low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 1,665 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7 and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 56.8% reported having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 29.0% (992 people), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tanilba Bay has a cultural diversity score below average, with 88.5% of its residents born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tanilba Bay, accounting for 54.5% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.4%), Australian (32.1%), and Scottish (7.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal people are overrepresented in Tanilba Bay at 5.4%, compared to 4.6% regionally. Other overrepresented ethnicities include Macedonian at 0.2% versus 0.4% regionally, and Maltese at 0.5% versus 0.4%.

Tanilba Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tanilba Bay's median age as of 2021 is 48 years, which is older than Regional NSW's median age of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that the 75-84 year-old group makes up 11.0% of the population, while the 5-14 year-old group comprises 9.7%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 35 to 44 age group grew from 9.6% to 11.7%, and the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 9.8% to 11.0%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 year-old group declined from 11.3% to 9.7%, and the 45 to 54 age group dropped from 11.5% to 10.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Tanilba Bay's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow steadily, increasing by 115 people (32%) from 362 to 478. Meanwhile, the number of people in the 15 to 24 age range is expected to decrease by 26.