Tanilba Bay

Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Tanilba Bay's population is estimated at around 3,367, reflecting an increase of 130 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,237. This growth was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,360 based on the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 258 persons per square kilometer. Tanilba Bay's growth rate of 4.0% since census positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (5.5%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected nationally for non-metropolitan areas, with Tanilba Bay expected to increase by 565 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 16.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Tanilba Bay recorded around 19 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 97 homes. As of FY26, 45 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately one new resident per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25, suggesting supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction value for these dwellings is $508,000, indicating a focus on the premium market.

In FY26, there have been $1.9 million in commercial approvals, reflecting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Tanilba Bay has similar development levels per person, maintaining market balance with the broader area. Recent construction comprises 70% detached houses and 30% townhouses or apartments, showing a shift from the current housing composition of 93% houses. This indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring more diverse housing options.

Tanilba Bay has approximately 313 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate an addition of 558 residents by 2041, aligning with current development levels to maintain stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Tanilba Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely affecting this region: The Caswell Supported Living Village, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, and Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm. Relevant details are provided below.

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Employment performance in Tanilba Bay has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Tanilba Bay has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 5.5% as of December 2025. Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 0.7%.

The area's unemployment rate is 1.6% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, while workforce participation lags at 45.7% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. As of Census responses, 17.0% of residents work from home. Major industries of employment are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food, with the latter being particularly notable at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, education & training is under-represented, with only 5.3% of Tanilba Bay's workforce compared to Regional NSW's 9.6%.

Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by the discrepancy between Census working population and resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, while labour force decreased by 0.7%, leading to a unemployment rate drop of 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decrease of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6%, and by 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tanilba Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Tanilba Bay's median taxpayer income in financial year 2023 was $45,155 and average income was $54,878 according to latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, contrasting with Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,156 (median) and $59,740 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Tanilba Bay all fall between the 9th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 29.5% of residents (993 people) earn within the $800 - $1499 bracket, contrasting with metropolitan regions where the $1500 - $2999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tanilba Bay, with only 81.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tanilba Bay's dwellings were 93.4% houses and 6.6% other types at the latest Census, compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% others. Home ownership in Tanilba Bay was 43.0%, with mortgaged properties at 29.4% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, below Regional NSW's $1,733. Median weekly rent was $380 in Tanilba Bay, higher than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tanilba Bay's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,517 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $380 against the national figure of $375.

Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.0% of all households, including 22.4% couples with children, 33.8% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.0%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, aligning with the Regional NSW average.

Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 11.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (33.8%).

A total of 24.3% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.5% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tanilba Bay has 34 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 25 different routes that together offer 269 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living 162 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, with cars being the predominant mode of transport at 95%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 17% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Tanilba Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tanilba Bay faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 49% of the total population (around 1,639 people), which is lower than Regional NSW's 51.9%, and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 56.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age population health is particularly challenging with higher chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors (28.4%, around 956 people) than Regional NSW (23.4%). Senior health outcomes present challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tanilba Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.5% of its population born in Australia. This is dated from the Australian Census on 9 August 2016. Additionally, 92.6% were citizens and 97.4% spoke English only at home during this period.

Christianity was found to be the main religion in Tanilba Bay, comprising 54.5% of its population. This compares to a regional NSW average of 55.9%, as per the Australian Census on 9 August 2016. The top three ancestry groups represented in Tanilba Bay were English at 33.4%, Australian at 32.1%, and Scottish at 7.9%. However, there were notable divergences in certain ethnic group representations: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 5.4% (regional NSW average is 4.6%), Macedonian at 0.2% (vs regional NSW's 0.4%), and Maltese at 0.5% (vs regional NSW's 0.4%).

Tanilba Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tanilba Bay's median age was 48 years as of the 2021 Census, which is older than Regional NSW's median of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median of 38. The age profile showed that those aged 75-84 were particularly prominent at 10.6%, while those aged 5-14 were relatively smaller at 9.4% compared to Regional NSW. Post-Census data indicated the 35-44 age group had grown from 9.6% to 11.7% of the population, while the 5-14 cohort had declined from 11.3% to 9.4%. Demographic modeling suggested Tanilba Bay's age profile would evolve significantly by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort was projected to grow steadily, increasing by 124 people (34%) from 370 to 495. Conversely, the number of those aged 15-24 was expected to fall by 24.