Tanilba Bay

Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Tanilba Bay's population is estimated at around 3,307 people. This figure reflects an increase of 70 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,237 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,298 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 253 persons per square kilometer. Tanilba Bay's growth rate of 2.2% since the census positions it within 2.9 percentage points of the non-metro area (5.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth, contributing approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, above median population growth is projected nationally for non-metropolitan areas. The suburb is expected to increase by 576 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 17.0% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Tanilba Bay recorded around 18 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 93 homes. In FY-26 so far, 2 approvals have been recorded. The average new residents per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 is approximately one.

New supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. Average construction value of new properties is $508,000. This financial year, $1.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Relative to Rest of NSW, Tanilba Bay has similar development levels per person, maintaining market balance consistent with the broader area.

New development consists of 71.0% standalone homes and 29.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns which are currently 93.0% houses. This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated count of people in the area per dwelling approval is 387, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Looking ahead, Tanilba Bay is expected to grow by 561 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Tanilba Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects likely to affect this region. Notable initiatives include The Caswell Supported Living Village, Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program, and Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm.

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Employment conditions in Tanilba Bay face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Tanilba Bay has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, there are 1,229 residents in work, an increase from the previous year. The unemployment rate is 2.2% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation stands at 46.6%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food.

Tanilba Bay has a notable concentration in accommodation & food, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. However, education & training is under-represented, with only 5.3% of Tanilba Bay's workforce compared to 9.6% in Rest of NSW. The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, labour force decreased by 4.7%, with employment decreasing by a similar percentage while unemployment remained largely unchanged. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tanilba Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, assuming population projections remain constant.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Tanilba Bay's median taxpayer income was $45,155 and average income was $54,878 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national averages of $53,965 (median) and $67,043 (average). Rest of NSW had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively during this period. By September 2025, estimated median income in Tanilba Bay would be approximately $50,849 and average income $61,798, based on a 12.61% growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Tanilba Bay fall between the 9th and 9th percentiles nationally for households ($45,300-$74,400), families ($86,700-$145,000), and individuals ($24,000-$42,000). The income distribution shows that the $800 - 1,499 bracket dominates with 29.5% of residents (975 people), while in metropolitan regions, the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Tanilba Bay's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Non-Metro NSW's 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tanilba Bay was 43.0%, similar to Non-Metro NSW, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.4% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Tanilba Bay was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Tanilba Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,517 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher at $380 against the national figure of $375.

Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.0% of all households, including 22.4% couples with children, 33.8% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.0%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households comprising 3.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Rest of NSW average.

Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (33.8%). A total of 24.3% of the population is engaged in formal education, comprising 8.5% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Tanilba Bay Public School serves Tanilba Bay, with an enrollment of 379 students as of a recent report (ICSEA: 913). The school caters exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available nearby.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Tanilba Bay shows that there are currently 32 active transport stops operating, all of which serve buses. These stops are covered by 25 different routes, together offering a total of 299 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is considered excellent, with residents on average being located just 162 meters from their nearest transport stop.

On average, there are 42 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tanilba Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tanilba Bay faces significant health challenges, affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 49% (~1,610 individuals) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (11.7%) and mental health issues (10.2%), while 56.8% report no medical ailments, compared to 59.3% in the rest of NSW. The area has a high proportion of seniors, with 28.2% (932 individuals) aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors are similar to those of the general population.

Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tanilba Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.5% of its population born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 97.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tanilba Bay, comprising 54.5% of people, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.4%), Australian (32.1%), and Scottish (7.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 5.4%, compared to the regional average of 4.5%. Macedonian and Maltese populations are also slightly higher than the regional averages, at 0.2% and 0.5% respectively.

Tanilba Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tanilba Bay's median age was 48 years as of the Census conducted on 9 August 2021, which is older than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile showed that individuals aged 75 to 84 made up a substantial portion at 10.7%, while those aged 5 to 14 were comparatively smaller at 9.5% compared to Rest of NSW. Post-2021 Census data indicated that the 35 to 44 age group had grown from 9.6% to 11.1% of the population, while the 5 to 14 cohort had declined from 11.3% to 9.5%. Additionally, the 65 to 74 age group decreased from 15.5% to 14.3%. Demographic modeling suggests that Tanilba Bay's age profile will undergo significant changes by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow steadily, increasing by 131 people (38%) from 350 to 482. Conversely, the number of individuals in the 15 to 24 age range is expected to decrease by 28.