Tanilba Bay

Tanilba Bay has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Tanilba Bay is around 3,367, reflecting an increase of 130 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 4.0% increase from the previous population count of 3,237. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,360, based on examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 15 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 258 persons per square kilometer. Tanilba Bay's growth rate since the census is within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 50.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where necessary, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Considering these projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 568 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 14.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Tanilba Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Tanilba Bay recorded around 19 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. This totals an estimated 97 homes. In FY-26 so far, 45 approvals have been recorded. Over these years, there has been an average of 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed.

The average construction value for new properties is $508,000. There were $1.9 million in commercial approvals this financial year. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tanilba Bay has similar development levels per person, maintaining market balance. Recent construction comprises 70.0% detached houses and 30.0% townhouses or apartments.

This is a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 93.0% houses. The location has approximately 313 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections estimate Tanilba Bay will add 498 residents by 2041. Existing development levels seem aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Tanilba Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified two projects likely affecting this region: The Caswell Supported Living Village and Nelson Bay Road Duplication - Williamtown to Bobs Farm. Other notable projects include Port Stephens Local Environmental Plan (LEP) & Development Control Plan (DCP), and Port Stephens Housing Delivery Program.

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Employment drivers in Tanilba Bay are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tanilba Bay has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 5.3%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data as of September 2025. There are 1,253 residents employed, which is 1.5% above the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

However, workforce participation lags at 46.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Census responses show that 17.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. The area has a notably high concentration in accommodation & food, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, education & training is under-represented, with only 5.3% of Tanilba Bay's workforce compared to 9.6% in Rest of NSW. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, labour force decreased by 2.7%, alongside a 0.9% employment decline, causing unemployment to fall by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tanilba Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Tanilba Bay's median taxpayer income is $45,155 and average is $54,878 based on latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average). By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,156 (median) and $59,740 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Tanilba Bay's incomes fall between the 9th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that 29.5% of residents earn between $800 - 1,499 annually. In contrast, metropolitan regions have a higher proportion in the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 81.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Tanilba Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tanilba Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.4% houses and 6.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tanilba Bay stood at 43.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.4% and rented ones at 27.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Tanilba Bay was $380, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $330. Nationally, Tanilba Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Tanilba Bay has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.0% of all households, including 22.4% couples with children, 33.8% couples without children, and 12.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 30.0%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households making up 3.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Rest of NSW average.

Tanilba Bay faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 7.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.4%) and certificates (33.8%).

A substantial 24.3% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.5% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 34 active public transport stops in Tanilba Bay, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 269 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 162 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 95%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.5 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 17% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tanilba Bay is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tanilba Bay faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low, at approximately 49% of the total population (around 1,639 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 56.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, at 28.0% (942 people), compared to 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Tanilba Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tanilba Bay, as per data from the 2016 Census, showed lower cultural diversity with 88.5% of its population born in Australia and 92.6% being citizens. English was spoken exclusively at home by 97.4%. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 54.5%, slightly lower than the 55.9% regional average for Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.4%), Australian (32.1%), and Scottish (7.9%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were more represented in Tanilba Bay at 5.4% compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Other ethnic groups with notable differences included Macedonian at 0.2% (vs regional 0.4%) and Maltese at 0.5% (vs regional 0.4%).

Tanilba Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Tanilba Bay's median age was 48 years as of the 2021 Census, which is older than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile showed that the 75-84 year-old group made up 10.4% of the population, while the 5-14 year-old group comprised 9.3%. Post-Census data indicated that the 35-44 age group had grown from 9.6% to 11.6%, while the 5-14 age cohort had declined from 11.3% to 9.3% and the 45-54 age group had dropped from 11.5% to 10.4%. Demographic modeling suggests that Tanilba Bay's age profile will change significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to grow steadily, increasing by 114 people (31%) from 367 to 482. Conversely, numbers in the 15-24 age range are expected to decrease by 31.