Salamander Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Salamander Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Salamander Bay's population is estimated at around 5,037 people. This figure reflects an increase of 46 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,991 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,993 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 588 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing around 98% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Salamander Bay is expected to grow by approximately 502 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of around 10.3% in total over the 17-year period. This growth rate is just below the median for regional areas nationally.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Salamander Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Salamander Bay recorded approximately 7 residential properties granted approval annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 35 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. Each dwelling built over these years attracted an average of 2.5 new residents annually, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average expected cost of $721,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $1.1 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of NSW, Salamander Bay records significantly lower building activity, 78.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, though recent years have seen accelerated building activity. The area's new building activity shows an equal split between detached dwellings (50.0%) and attached dwellings (50.0%), promoting higher-density living which creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. As of now, Salamander Bay has an estimated 458 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment.

Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 517 residents by 2041, with current construction levels potentially lagging behind population growth, intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth if trends persist.

Salamander Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that could impact this region: Salamander Bay Town Centre Place Plan, 100 Salamander Way Residential Development, Salamander Bay Shopping Centre Expansion, and Central Avenue Salamander Bay Retail Development. These are the key initiatives likely to have the most relevance.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.4%, Salamander Bay has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Salamander Bay has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominently featuring tourism and hospitality sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.4%, lower than Rest of NSW's 3.7%.

As of June 2025, 1,881 residents are employed, with a participation rate of 42.7% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area has a notable concentration in accommodation & food, at 1.6 times the regional average. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 1.1% of Salamander Bay's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Labour force decreased by 4.1% and employment by 4.5% in Salamander Bay over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Salamander Bay's current employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Salamander Bay's median taxpayer income was $39,096 and average income was $55,698 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national averages of $49,459 (median) and $62,998 (average). By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 12.61%, estimated incomes would be approximately $44,026 (median) and $62,722 (average). Census figures from 2021 show that Salamander Bay's incomes fall between the 7th and 11th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $400 - 799 captures 28.4% of Salamander Bay residents, differing from regional patterns where $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Salamander Bay, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Salamander Bay displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Salamander Bay, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 60.0% houses and 40.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Salamander Bay was 52.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.7% and rented dwellings at 23.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent figure was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $360. Nationally, Salamander Bay's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Salamander Bay features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.6% of all households, including 18.8% couples with children, 34.6% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.4%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Salamander Bay fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 16.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 31.4%.

A substantial 22.6% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education. Salamander Bay operates a robust network of 6 schools educating approximately 2,120 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 965) offering balanced educational opportunities. The schools include 3 primary, 1 secondary, and 2 K-12 institutions. The area functions as an education hub with 42.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 11.8, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 53 active public transport stops in Salamander Bay. These are served by a mix of bus routes totalling 81. Weekly passenger trips amount to 1,052.

Residential accessibility is rated excellent with an average distance of 164 meters to the nearest stop. Daily service frequency averages 150 trips across all routes, equating to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Salamander Bay is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Salamander Bay with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~2,468 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 15.3 and 9.2% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 54.4% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 59.3% across Rest of NSW. The area has 39.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,984 people), which is higher than the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges despite performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Salamander Bay is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Salamander Bay, as per the findings, exhibited lower cultural diversity with 84.2% of its residents born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 95.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was identified as the predominant religion, accounting for 61.1% of Salamander Bay's population, compared to 57.4% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (35.2%), Australian (28.2%), and Irish (9.5%).

Notably, Scottish ancestry was overrepresented in Salamander Bay at 9.4%, compared to the regional average of 8.3%. Welsh ancestry was equally represented at 0.7% both locally and regionally, while Maltese ancestry was slightly higher at 0.7% in Salamander Bay versus 0.5% regionally.

Salamander Bay ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Salamander Bay is 57 years, which is significantly higher than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and substantially exceeds Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Salamander Bay has a higher concentration of residents aged 75-84 (16.3%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7%). This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 8.6% to 9.5% of the population, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 9.7% to 8.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Salamander Bay's age structure. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase markedly by 276 people (90%), from 307 to 584 residents. Demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 76% of the anticipated population growth. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 15 to 24 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.