Armidale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the estimated population of Armidale as of Nov 2025 is around 24,775. This reflects an increase of 808 people (3.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,967 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 24,412 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and an additional 578 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 90 persons per square kilometer in Armidale. Armidale's growth rate of 3.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.3%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for Armidale was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Armidale is expected to expand by 1,919 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 6.2% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Armidale when compared nationally

Armidale recorded approximately 120 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years ending FY26. This totals an estimated 601 homes. In FY26, 40 approvals have been recorded so far. Despite a population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas in NSW.

The average construction cost of new properties is $374,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for buyers. Additionally, $19.6 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded in FY26, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Armidale shows moderately higher development activity, with 22.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintains good buyer choice and supports existing property values. New developments consist of 45.0% detached houses and 55.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift from the area's current housing composition, which is predominantly houses at 82.0%.

Armidale has a low density population, with around 120 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 1,530 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Armidale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of an area is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are the Armidale East Mall Revitalisation, New England Renewable Energy Zone (REZ), Armidale Retail Precinct Expansion, and Social Housing Development Initiative - Armidale. The following list outlines those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment positions Armidale ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Armidale has an educated workforce with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.6% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.9%.

As of June 2025, 13,674 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation at 56.4%. Leading industries include education & training, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Education & training is particularly strong, employing 2.3 times the regional level. Conversely, construction employs only 6.9% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 9.7%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 3.9%, labour force by 3.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.1% and a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armidale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022, Armidale had a median income among taxpayers of $48,389 with an average level of $60,875. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $49,459 and $62,998 across Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% between financial year ended June 2022 and September 2025, current estimates for Armidale would be approximately $54,491 (median) and $68,551 (average). From the 2021 Census, household incomes in Armidale rank at the 31st percentile, family incomes at the 32nd percentile, and personal incomes at the 34th percentile. The data shows that the income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 31.2% of residents (7,729 people). After housing costs, 85.4% of income remains for other expenses in Armidale, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the fifth decile.

Armidale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Armidale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 82.0% houses and 18.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale stood at 33.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.0% and rented ones at 38.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. Median weekly rent in Armidale was $290, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Armidale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $290 compared to the national figure of $375.

Armidale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 62.8% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 4.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Rest of NSW average.

Armidale shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Educational attainment in Armidale is notably high, with 35.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to 19.5% in the SA4 region and 21.3% in the Rest of NSW. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 12.2% and graduate diplomas at 3.6%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.3% and certificates at 21.7%. Educational participation is high, with 38.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.3% in tertiary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 9.5% pursuing secondary education.

Sixteen schools serve a total of 4,803 students in Armidale, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes eight primary, three secondary, and five K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds residential needs, with 19.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.7, indicating that Armidale serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armidale has 431 active public transport stops, served by 44 routes offering 1,037 weekly passenger trips. These stops are a mix of train and bus services. Residents have excellent accessibility to transport, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 148 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately two trips per week per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~12,642 people), compared to 48.9% across Rest of NSW.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.6 and 8.8% of residents respectively, while 66.1% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across Rest of NSW. The area has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (4,459 people), which is lower than the 20.2% in Rest of NSW.

In terms of cultural diversity, Armidale records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 80.9% being citizens, 81.8% born in Australia, and 87.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 50.3%. The 'Other' category comprises 3.5%, higher than the Rest of NSW's 2.4%.

Top ancestry groups are English (27.8%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Notable differences exist in Australian Aboriginal representation at 5.8% (vs regional 5.7%), Scottish at 8.8% (vs 8.9%), and German at 3.6% (vs 3.5%).

Armidale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Armidale's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 years, and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38 years. The 15-24 cohort is notably over-represented in Armidale at 18.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 9.0%. This concentration of the 15-24 age group is well above the national average of 12.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.6% to 14.9% of Armidale's population, and the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.0% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.5% to 10.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Armidale's age profile will evolve significantly. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 28%, adding 1,037 residents to reach a total of 4,729. However, both the 5-14 and 65-74 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.