Armidale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Armidale's estimated population is around 24,587. This reflects an increase of 620 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,967. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 24,386 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 578 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 89 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Armidale has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.2%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Considering projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below Australia's non-metropolitan median is expected for Armidale, expanding by 1,919 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 7.0% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Armidale when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Armidale recorded approximately 120 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 601 homes. As of May 2026, 56 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes, benefiting buyers.

The average expected construction cost value for new properties is $374,000. This financial year has seen $19.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Armidale shows moderately higher building activity, with 22.0% more approvals per person over the past five years. Recent construction comprises 45.0% detached houses and 55.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing pattern of 82.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers.

Armidale has around 120 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Armidale is projected to grow by 1,718 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Armidale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Armidale East Mall Revitalisation, New England Renewable Energy Zone (REZ), Armidale Retail Precinct Expansion, and Social Housing Development Initiative - Armidale. The following list details those projects most relevant to the area.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.2%, Armidale has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Armidale has a well-educated workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.2% as of September 2025, which is 0.7% below the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Armidale is on par with Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents include education & training, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. The area shows strong specialization in education & training, employing 2.3 times the regional level. Construction employs only 6.9% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 9.7%.

Many Armidale residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Armidale's labour force increased by 0.4%, while employment declined by 0.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. As of 25-Nov-25, NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armidale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, Armidale had a median income among taxpayers of $48,389 and an average income of $60,875. This is lower than the national average of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Armidale would be approximately $52,676 (median) and $66,269 (average) as of September 2025. From the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census Report released on 28 June 2021, household incomes in Armidale ranked at the 31st percentile, family incomes at the 34th percentile, and personal incomes also at the 34th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominated with 31.2% of residents (7,671 people). After housing costs, 85.4% of income remained for other expenses. Armidale's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the fifth decile.

Armidale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Armidale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.0% houses and 18.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale was at 33.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.0% and rented ones at 38.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. Median weekly rent in Armidale was $290, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Armidale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Armidale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 62.8% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households comprising 4.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of NSW.

Armidale shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Educational attainment in Armidale is significantly higher than broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 35.1% of residents aged 15 years and over held university qualifications, compared to 19.5% in the SA4 region and 21.3% in the Rest of NSW. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 12.2% and graduate diplomas at 3.6%. Trade and technical skills were also prominent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15 years and over holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.3% and certificates at 21.7%.

Educational participation was notably high, with 38.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2016. This included 11.3% in tertiary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 9.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armidale has 437 active public transport stops offering train and bus services. These are covered by 46 routes, serving a total of 1,107 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest one.

The service frequency is 158 trips per day across all routes, translating to about two trips per stop each week.

Health performance in Armidale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale faces significant health challenges with common health conditions being somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover stands at approximately 51% of the total population, which is around 12,546 people.

This compares to a rate of 49.0% across the Rest of NSW. Mental health issues were found to be the most common medical condition in Armidale, impacting 9.6% of residents. Asthma was also prevalent, affecting 8.8% of residents. However, 66.1% of residents declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across the Rest of NSW. The area has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over, which amounts to 4,425 people. This is lower than the 20.2% in the Rest of NSW.

In terms of cultural diversity, Armidale records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 80.9% citizens, 81.8% born in Australia, and 87.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 50.3%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 3.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 2.4%.

Top ancestry groups are English (27.8%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Notable divergences include Australian Aboriginal at 5.8% (vs regional 5.7%), Scottish at 8.8% (vs 8.9%), and German at 3.6% (vs 3.5%).

Armidale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Armidale's median age is 35 years, significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. The 15-24 cohort is notably over-represented in Armidale at 18.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 9.0%. This concentration of the 15-24 age group is well above the national average of 12.5%. Post the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 13.6% to 14.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.0% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group declined from 11.5% to 10.0%. Demographic modeling suggests Armidale's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow strongly at 29%, adding 1,065 residents to reach 4,729. Meanwhile, both the 5-14 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.