Oxley Vale

Population growth drivers in Oxley Vale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census Oxley Vale's population is estimated at around 3,603 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease of 332 people (8.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,935 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,551 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 425 persons per square kilometer for the suburb of Oxley Vale, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Over the past decade, Oxley Vale has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a 1.3% compound annual growth rate, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the suburb expected to grow by 797 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 31.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Oxley Vale, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Oxley Vale averaged approximately 9 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 48 homes. As of FY-26 so far, 1 approval has been recorded. Over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), there was an average of 1.6 people moving to the area per dwelling built. However, recent data shows this has increased to 6.2 people per dwelling over the past two financial years.

Development projects averaged $514,000 in construction value during this period. There were also $1.5 million in commercial approvals recorded this financial year. Compared to Rest of NSW, Oxley Vale records roughly half the building activity per person and places among the 13th percentile nationally, indicating limited buyer options but strengthening demand for established dwellings. New building activity shows 64% detached dwellings and 36% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing diverse housing options. This is a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 93% houses.

The estimated population count per dwelling approval in Oxley Vale is 1311 people. Looking ahead, AreaSearch quarterly estimates project Oxley Vale to grow by 1,144 residents through to 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Oxley Vale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two key projects expected to impact this region: Oxley Vale Lifestyle Estate, Oxley Vale Neighbourhood Supermarket, Tamworth Global Gateway Park, and Moore Creek Gardens. These are the most relevant projects.

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The employment environment in Oxley Vale shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Oxley Vale has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate is 3.1%.

Over the past year, it had an estimated employment growth of 3.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of June 2025, there are 2,010 residents employed in Oxley Vale, with an unemployment rate of 0.6% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. The workforce participation rate is 58.7%, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade are the main sectors employing residents in Oxley Vale.

Manufacturing is particularly prominent, with an employment share 2.2 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 2.0% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment in Oxley Vale increased by 3.4%, and labour force increased by 3.1%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1% with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oxley Vale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Oxley Vale had a median taxpayer income of $48,294 and an average income of $58,181 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998 in the same period. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $54,384 (median) and $65,518 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. Census 2021 income data ranks Oxley Vale's household, family, and personal incomes modestly, between the 27th and 34th percentiles. In terms of earnings profile, 33.9% of Oxley Vale's population (1,221 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Oxley Vale, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile.

Oxley Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Oxley Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.9% houses and 7.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's structure of 89.5% houses and 10.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oxley Vale stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.7% and rented ones at 44.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,305, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,500. The median weekly rent in Oxley Vale was $335, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Oxley Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,305 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Oxley Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.6% of all households, including 27.6% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 18.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.4%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Oxley Vale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (30.8%). Educational participation is high at 32.6%, comprising 13.6% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Oxley Vale Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 371 students and an ICSEA score of 878. It offers primary education only; secondary options are available nearby. The school place ratio per 100 residents is 10.3, below the regional average of 16.4. Some students may attend schools in adjacent areas due to limited local places.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Oxley Vale shows that there are currently 56 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops are used by a mix of bus services. The study found that these stops are serviced by 26 individual routes, which together provide a total of 251 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as excellent in Oxley Vale, with residents typically located just 125 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes is 35 trips per day, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Oxley Vale is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Oxley Vale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups in the area.

Approximately 50% (~1800 people) have private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.2% and 10.8% of residents respectively. Only 62.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of NSW. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 14.1% (508 people), compared to the 19.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly aligned with those of the general population.

Oxley Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oxley Vale was found to have a cultural diversity below average, with 86.8% of its population being citizens, 88.9% born in Australia, and 90.5% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Oxley Vale is Christianity, accounting for 57.9% of the population, compared to 63.6% across Rest of NSW. Regarding ancestry, the top three represented groups are Australian (32.0%), English (27.4%), and Australian Aboriginal (12.5%).

Notably, Vietnamese people make up 0.8% of Oxley Vale's population, higher than the regional average of 0.3%. Similarly, Filipino representation is at 1.4%, compared to 0.7% regionally, and Lebanese people constitute 0.2%, slightly higher than the regional average of 0.1%.

Oxley Vale's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age in Oxley Vale is 32 years, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and Australia's median of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Oxley Vale has a higher proportion of residents aged 5-14 (16.6%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (7.8%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35-44 has increased from 12.8% to 14.2%. Conversely, the population aged 65-74 has decreased from 9.1% to 7.8%. By 2041, Oxley Vale's age composition is expected to change notably. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 43%, reaching 824 people from the current 576.