Oxley Vale

Population growth drivers in Oxley Vale are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, as of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Oxley Vale is around 4,011. This reflects an increase of 76 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,935. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,868, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 6 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 473 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Oxley Vale has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, an above median population growth is projected for Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with Oxley Vale expected to grow by 801 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 18.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oxley Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Oxley Vale averaged around 12 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling an estimated 61 homes. By FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. Each year, approximately 1.3 new residents are added per dwelling constructed. The average construction value of new dwellings is $514,000, indicating a focus on premium properties.

This financial year has seen $3.4 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Oxley Vale records around 67% of building activity per person and ranks at the 61st percentile nationally. However, recent periods have shown increasing development activity, suggesting possible planning constraints. New developments consist of 83.0% detached houses and 17.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's low density nature with a focus on detached housing.

There are approximately 246 people per dwelling approval in Oxley Vale. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is projected to add 749 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Oxley Vale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include Oxley Vale Lifestyle Estate, Oxley Vale Neighbourhood Supermarket, Tamworth Global Gateway Park, and Moore Creek Gardens. The following list details those most relevant:.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.6%, Oxley Vale has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Oxley Vale has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, lower than the Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Employment stability has been consistent over the past year.

As of September 2025, 1,977 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% below the regional average and workforce participation at 71.3%, higher than Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census data, 9.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing shows a notable concentration with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 2.0%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Oxley Vale's labour force increased by 0.5%, while employment declined by 0.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Oxley Vale's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.2% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Oxley Vale's income level is below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Oxley Vale is $48,294 and the average income stands at $58,181. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which are $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $52,573 (median) and $63,336 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Oxley Vale rank modestly, between the 27th and 34th percentiles. The largest income segment comprises 33.9% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,359 residents), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Oxley Vale, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile.

Oxley Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Oxley Vale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.9% houses and 7.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oxley Vale stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.7% and rented ones at 44.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,305, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Oxley Vale was $335, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Oxley Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Oxley Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.6% of all households, including 27.6% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 18.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 28.4%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Oxley Vale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 8.6% and certificates at 30.8%. Educational participation is high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Oxley Vale has 62 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are serviced by 26 different routes that together offer 435 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 110 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards daily due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 96% of residents. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 9.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Bus services operate an average of 62 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Oxley Vale is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Oxley Vale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~2,004 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, impacting 11.2 and 10.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 62.0% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. As of the assessment date, Oxley Vale has 13.8% of residents aged 65 and over (553 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Oxley Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oxley Vale, surveyed in 2016, had a cultural diversity below average. Its population was predominantly Australian citizens at 86.8%, born in Australia at 88.9%, and speaking English only at home at 90.5%. Christianity dominated as the main religion, with 57.9% of people adhering to it, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 55.9%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (32.0%), English (27.4%), and Australian Aboriginal (12.5%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Vietnamese at 0.8% compared to the region's 0.1%, Filipino at 1.4% versus 0.6%, and Lebanese at 0.2%, similar to the regional figure of 0.2%.

Oxley Vale's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age in Oxley Vale is 32, which is notably lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Oxley Vale has a higher proportion of 25-34 year-olds (16.1%) but fewer 65-74 year-olds (7.7%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group grew from 12.8% to 14.4%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 15.1% to 16.1%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort declined from 9.1% to 7.7%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 9.3% to 8.2%. By the year 2041, Oxley Vale is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 28%, reaching 825 residents from 645. The 55-64 group displays more modest growth at 4%, adding only 15 residents.