Oxley Vale

Population growth drivers in Oxley Vale are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of the Oxley Vale statistical area (Lv2) is around 4,010. This figure represents a growth of 75 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,935. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,868 residents as of June 2024 and six additional validated addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 473 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Oxley Vale has shown resilience with a compound annual growth rate of 1.3%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for areas not covered by ABS data. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Oxley Vale (SA2) is projected to grow by 814 persons, reflecting an increase of 18.8% in total population over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oxley Vale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Oxley Vale averaged approximately 12 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 61 homes. As of FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. Based on historical data from FY-21 to FY-25, each new dwelling constructed has accommodated around 1.3 new residents annually. This suggests a balanced supply and demand dynamic in the area, with stable market conditions.

The average expected construction cost of new dwellings is $514,000, indicating a focus on premium properties. In FY-26, there have been $3.4 million worth of commercial approvals, reflecting Oxley Vale's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Oxley Vale records approximately 67% of the building activity per person. Nationally, it ranks around the 61st percentile among areas assessed, although development activity has increased recently.

This lower-than-average national ranking may suggest planning constraints or market maturity. The area's new development consists predominantly of detached houses (83.0%) and a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (17.0%), maintaining its low-density character and appealing to space-seeking buyers with an average of 246 people per dwelling approval. Future projections estimate Oxley Vale will add approximately 754 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth in the area.

Oxley Vale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified two projects expected to impact this region. Notable projects include Oxley Vale Lifestyle Estate, Oxley Vale Neighbourhood Supermarket, Tamworth Global Gateway Park, and Moore Creek Gardens. The following details those likely to be most relevant:.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.5%, Oxley Vale has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Oxley Vale has a balanced workforce comprising both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area.

The unemployment rate is 3.5%, lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. This rate has remained relatively stable over the past year. As of September 2025, 1,986 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% below the regional average. Workforce participation is fairly standard at 58.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

The leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and retail trade. Manufacturing shows a particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 2.2 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 2.0% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the comparison between the Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.6%, while employment declined by 0.3%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.5%, a labour force decline of 0.1%, and an unemployment increase of 0.4 percentage points during the same period. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows that NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oxley Vale's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.5% over ten years. However, it should be noted that these estimates are based on simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not take into account localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Oxley Vale's median income among taxpayers was $48,294 in financial year 2023. The suburb's average income stood at $58,181 during the same period. These figures are below those of Rest of NSW, which had a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth, current estimates for Oxley Vale's median income would be approximately $52,573 as of September 2025, while the average is estimated to reach around $63,336 by that date. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes in Oxley Vale ranked between the 27th and 34th percentiles. The largest income segment comprised 33.9% of residents earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. This aligns with the metropolitan region where this cohort also represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures in Oxley Vale are severe, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 25th percentile.

Oxley Vale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Oxley Vale, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.9% houses and 7.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 89.5% houses and 10.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oxley Vale stood at 26.4%, with mortgaged properties at 28.7% and rented dwellings at 44.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,305, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,500. The median weekly rent in Oxley Vale was $335, compared to Non-Metro NSW's figure of $300. Nationally, Oxley Vale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,305 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Oxley Vale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.6% of all households, consisting of 27.6% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 18.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.4%, with lone person households at 26.0% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Oxley Vale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.6%) and certificates (30.8%). Educational participation is high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 13.6% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 62 active transport stops in Oxley Vale, served by a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 26 individual routes, offering a total of 435 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 110 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency across all routes averages 62 trips per day, translating to about 7 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Oxley Vale is well below average with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Oxley Vale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by recent data. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older residents.

Approximately half (50%) of Oxley Vale's population has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.2% and 10.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 62.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW figure at 63.4%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (14.1%, or 565 people) compared to the Rest of NSW average of 19.9%. Health outcomes among seniors in Oxley Vale largely mirror those of the general population.

Oxley Vale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oxley Vale, assessed in terms of cultural diversity, had a predominantly homogeneous population: 86.8% were Australian citizens, 88.9% were born in Australia, and 90.5% spoke English only at home. The religious landscape was dominated by Christianity, which accounted for 57.9% of the population, compared to 63.6% across the Rest of NSW. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (32.0%), English (27.4%), and Australian Aboriginal (12.5%).

Notably, Vietnamese (0.8%) and Filipino (1.4%) populations were higher than regional averages of 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, while Lebanese representation was slightly higher at 0.2%.

Oxley Vale's young demographic places it in the bottom 15% of areas nationwide

The median age in Oxley Vale is 32 years, which is notably lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 and substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, Oxley Vale has a higher concentration of residents aged 5-14 at 16.7%, but fewer residents aged 65-74 at 7.8%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 12.8% to 14.2%, while the population aged 65-74 has declined from 9.1% to 7.8%. By 2041, Oxley Vale is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The demographic shift will be led by the 25-34 age group, which is projected to grow by 30%, adding 189 people and reaching a total of 827 from 637. The 65-74 age group is expected to display more modest growth at 5%, adding only 15 residents.