Tamworth Surrounds

Tamworth Surrounds has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Tamworth Surrounds' population is 20,293 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,255 people from the 2021 Census population of 19,038, indicating a growth rate of 6.6%. The change was inferred from the ABS estimated resident population of 19,833 in June 2024 and an additional 474 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2.3 persons per square kilometer. Tamworth Surrounds' growth rate exceeded that of the SA4 region (4.6%) and Rest of NSW, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66.4% to overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch's projections for Tamworth Surrounds are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 using a 2022 base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate above median growth for regional areas, with Tamworth Surrounds expected to increase by 2,845 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 11.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tamworth Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Tamworth Surrounds averaged approximately 123 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, totalling 618 homes. In FY-26, 98 dwellings have been approved so far. On average, 1.2 new residents arrived per new home each year during these five years.

The average construction cost value of new dwellings was $345,000. This financial year has seen $15.9 million in commercial approvals. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tamworth Surrounds had 37.0% higher new home approvals per person over this period, indicating a balanced market with reasonable buyer options and sustained property demand. The new development composition was 69.0% standalone homes and 31.0% attached dwellings, offering diverse housing types from traditional family housing to affordable compact alternatives.

This is a shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 97.0% houses, suggesting decreasing developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more affordable options. With around 139 people per dwelling approval, Tamworth Surrounds exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to grow by approximately 2,385 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Tamworth Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence regional performance. AreaSearch identified 54 potential impact projects in total. Notable initiatives include Moore Creek Gardens, Oxley Vale Lifestyle Estate, Oxley Vale Neighbourhood Supermarket, and Eagle View Estate. The following details projects likely most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Tamworth Surrounds performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Tamworth Surrounds has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 1.4%, with an estimated employment growth of 0.5% over the past year.

In comparison to Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.8%, Tamworth Surrounds has a lower rate of 2.4%. The workforce participation rate in Tamworth Surrounds is higher at 71.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 20% of residents work from home. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training.

Tamworth Surrounds has a particular specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.6 times the regional level. Conversely, accommodation & food services show lower representation at 5.1%, compared to the regional average of 7.8%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.5% while labour force increased by 0.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tamworth Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.6% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Tamworth Surrounds SA2 was $49,751 and the average was $57,298 based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below the national average of $65,215 in Rest of NSW where the median income was $52,390. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median would be approximately $54,159 and the average would be around $62,375, factoring an 8.86% growth from financial year 2023 according to the Wage Price Index. In Tamworth Surrounds, incomes ranked modestly between the 30th and 31st percentiles based on 2021 Census figures. The predominant income cohort spanned 29.5% of locals (5,986 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to broader area patterns where 29.9% fell within this range. Housing costs were manageable with 86.9% retained, but disposable income was below average at the 35th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Tamworth Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tamworth Surrounds' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 97.3% houses and 2.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tamworth Surrounds was at 44.5%, with the remaining dwellings being mortgaged (38.7%) or rented (16.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,590, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Tamworth Surrounds was $275, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tamworth Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,590 than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tamworth Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.1% of all households, including 30.3% couples with children, 31.8% couples without children, and 10.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.9%, with lone person households at 24.6% and group households making up 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Tamworth Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 32.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.3% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 1249 active transport stops operating within Tamworth Surrounds, comprising a mix of train and bus services. These stops are serviced by 109 individual routes, collectively providing 1455 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 186 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; car remains the dominant mode at 93%, with 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, above the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, some 20% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 207 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Tamworth Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tamworth Surrounds faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence across various age groups. Notably, approximately 48% (9,659 people) have private health cover, which is lower than Rest of NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.2% of residents) and asthma (9.6%).

Conversely, 62.5% of residents claim to have no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age individuals face substantial health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.8%, with 4,419 people, compared to Rest of NSW's 23.0%. Health outcomes among seniors in Tamworth Surrounds align broadly with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Tamworth Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Tamworth Surrounds had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 92.0% of its population being citizens, 94.2% born in Australia, and 98.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Tamworth Surrounds, making up 67.9% of its population, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.1%), English (32.5%), and Scottish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 6.4%, compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Irish ancestry was also present at 8.4%, slightly higher than the regional average of 8.8%, while German ancestry was at 3.3%, marginally higher than the regional average of 3.1%.

Tamworth Surrounds hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Tamworth Surrounds' median age is 45 years, modestly exceeding Rest of NSW's median age of 43 and considerably older than Australia's national norm of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, Tamworth Surrounds has a notably over-represented cohort of 55-64 year-olds (14.0% locally) and an under-represented cohort of 25-34 year-olds (9.7%). Between 2021 and present, the proportion of 15 to 24 year-olds has grown from 10.2% to 11.0%, while the proportion of 45 to 54 year-olds has declined from 13.7% to 12.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Tamworth Surrounds' age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to expand by 613 people (31%), growing from 1,966 to 2,580. Conversely, numbers in the 15-24 age range are expected to fall by 63.