Tamworth Surrounds

Tamworth Surrounds has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

According to the analysis conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Tamworth Surrounds stands at approximately 20,412 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 1,374 people (7.2%) from the 19,038 residents recorded during the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated using the ABS estimated resident population of 20,158 as of June 2025 alongside an extra 642 validated new addresses registered since the Census date. With these figures, the population density is 2.3 persons per square kilometer, indicating residents enjoy significant personal space. The area's 7.2% growth rate since the 2021 census outpaced both the broader SA4 region (3.6%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning it as a frontrunner for growth locally. The expansion was chiefly fueled by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 72.5% of the total population increase, although other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also made positive contributions.

Projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 using 2022 as the baseline, are utilized by AreaSearch for each SA2. For SA2 regions lacking this coverage, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are applied instead. Age bracket growth trends derived from these sources are projected forward for the years 2032 to 2041. Future demographic forecasts indicate the area will experience population expansion exceeding the median for regional locations nationwide, with an anticipated increase of 2,708 persons to 2041 based on the most recent annual ERP data, representing a total rise of 12.0% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tamworth Surrounds among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

In Tamworth Surrounds, development approvals average approximately 123 dwellings annually, culminating in 618 homes over the last 5 financial years. For the current FY-26 period, 150 approvals have been documented so far. With an average of 1.7 new residents added per built dwelling each year over the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, demand and supply appear well-balanced, supporting stable conditions in the market. The average construction value for these new residences is $345,000. Additionally, commercial development is moving at a moderate pace, with $15.9 million in commercial approvals recorded during this financial year.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, building activity in Tamworth Surrounds is slightly higher, running 36.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year period, which helps preserve existing home values while ensuring options for buyers. Of the houses built recently, 69.0% are detached homes and 31.0% are townhouses or apartments. This growing share of multi-unit dwellings offers diverse options across various budgets, ranging from spacious family residences to more economical compact spaces. This represents a notable shift from the established housing stock, which currently stands at 97.0% houses, driven by a decline in available development lots and evolving lifestyle preferences and budget constraints. Reflecting its status as a growth sector, the area registers about 141 people for every approved dwelling.

Looking forward, projections based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly figures indicate Tamworth Surrounds is set to add 2,454 residents by 2041. Continuing at the current pace of construction, the upcoming housing supply is expected to easily satisfy this demand, offering favorable circumstances for purchasers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current population estimates.

Tamworth Surrounds has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and significant developments have a major impact on regional performance. AreaSearch has tracked a total of 54 projects that are expected to influence the local area. Key developments include Moore Creek Gardens, Oxley Vale Lifestyle Estate, Oxley Vale Neighbourhood Supermarket, and Eagle View Estate, with the list below detailing the most significant undertakings.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Tamworth Surrounds demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

The local workforce is evenly distributed between white-collar and blue-collar occupations, with a strong representation of public service roles and a very low unemployment rate of 2.1%. By March 2026, working residents numbered 11,150, keeping the unemployment rate 2.0% lower than the Regional NSW mark of 4.1%. Additionally, labor participation is exceptionally high, sitting at 70.0% compared to the Regional NSW average of 60.6%. Census data indicates a moderate 20.0% of the workforce operated from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of pandemic lockdowns.

The primary sectors employing local residents are health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training. The agricultural, forestry, and fishing sector is especially prominent, with local employment concentration reaching 2.6 times the regional average. Conversely, accommodation & food services has a smaller footprint, employing 5.1% of residents compared to 7.8% across the region. Comparisons between the working population counted in the Census and the resident population suggest that the local area offers a limited number of job opportunities within its own boundaries.

Analysis of SALM and ABS data by AreaSearch indicates that during the 12 months ending March 2026, the local labor force contracted by 2.1% while employment fell by 3.1%, resulting in a 1.0 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. In comparison, Regional NSW experienced a 0.9% drop in employment, a 0.4% decline in the labor force, and a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia dated May-25 offer additional perspective on potential employment trends in Tamworth Surrounds. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local industry profile to estimate future trends. Although overall national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the expansion rates vary widely by industry. Adjusting these national rates to match the employment composition of Tamworth Surrounds suggests local jobs could grow by 5.8% over five years and 12.6% over ten years, representing a basic weighted extrapolation that does not incorporate localized population forecasts.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to the latest ATO figures compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, personal incomes in the Tamworth Surrounds SA2 are lower than the national average. The median income for taxpayers in the SA2 is $49,751, and the average income is $57,298, which compares to Regional NSW averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Factoring in a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated figures for March 2026 would be roughly $54,885 for the median and $63,211 for the average. Census records show that household, family, and individual incomes are all relatively low in Tamworth Surrounds, falling between the 30th and 31st percentiles. The largest income bracket consists of weekly earnings between $1,500 - 2,999, accounting for 29.5% of households (6,021 residents), which aligns with the broader regional figure of 29.9% in this bracket. Rent and mortgage outlays are manageable, with residents retaining 86.9% of their income, but disposable funds are lower than average at the 35th percentile, and the area is positioned in the 4th decile of the SEIFA income index.

Tamworth Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

At the time of the latest Census, the housing mix in Tamworth Surrounds consisted of 97.3% standalone houses and 2.6% other types of dwellings such as semi-detached homes and apartments, compared to Regional NSW where standalone houses made up 82.6% and other dwellings accounted for 17.4%. Homeownership rates in Tamworth Surrounds were significantly higher than the regional benchmark, sitting at 44.5%, with mortgaged properties making up 38.7% and rental properties accounting for 16.7%. The median monthly mortgage payment in the area was lower than the Regional NSW average at $1,590, and the median weekly rent was recorded at $275, compared to regional figures of $1,733 and $330 respectively. On a national scale, mortgage payments in Tamworth Surrounds are considerably lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rent costs are also well below the national median of $375.

Tamworth Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

The vast majority of households are families, accounting for 73.1% of the total. This category includes 30.3% couples with children, 31.8% couples without children, and 10.2% single parents. Non-family households represent the remaining 26.9% of the area, consisting of lone individuals at 24.6% and shared group houses at 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 residents, which is slightly higher than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tamworth Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Educational outcomes present difficulties in the region, as the proportion of residents with university degrees (16.5%) is much lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This gap highlights a clear opportunity for focused educational programs. Among university graduates, Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 2.5% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Vocational and technical training is highly popular, with 42.1% of residents aged 15 and over holding qualification credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 9.9% and certificates at 32.2%.

A high proportion of the population is engaged in learning, with 28.3% of local residents currently participating in formal education. This group comprises 11.3% enrolled in primary schools, 9.1% in high schools, and 2.0% studying at the tertiary level.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport options in Tamworth Surrounds include 1,249 active transit stops, offering a combination of train and bus services. These locations are connected by 109 separate routes, which provide a total of 1,455 passenger trips each week. Transport access is highly rated, with the average distance to the nearest stop being 186 meters. Because the area is mainly residential, most working residents travel outside the area for employment, with private cars being the primary mode of travel for 93% of commuters, while 5% walk. Households own an average of 1.8 vehicles, which exceeds the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 20.0% of the workforce worked from home, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 rules.

Service frequency averages 207 daily trips across all routes, which translates to roughly 1 weekly trip per transport stop. The linked map details the 100 closest transit stops to the central point of the location.

Health performance in Tamworth Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and the frequency of chronic illnesses, Tamworth Surrounds faces notable health challenges, with common medical conditions prevalent among both younger and older residents. Furthermore, the proportion of residents with private health insurance is very low, standing at roughly 48% of the population (~9,716 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical diagnoses in the region, affecting 10.2% and 9.6% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 62.5% of the population reported no chronic health conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Health issues are notable among the working-age population due to higher rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and older make up 22.2% of the population (4,537 people), which is slightly below the Regional NSW average of 23.4%. Health measures for older residents indicate some difficulties, with national performance metrics generally matching those of the wider population.

The latest Census data sees Tamworth Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity in Tamworth Surrounds is lower than average, with citizens making up 92.0% of the population, 94.2% of residents born in Australia, and 98.0% speaking only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, practiced by 67.9% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

Regarding parental country of birth, the three most common ancestries in Tamworth Surrounds are Australian at 34.1%, English at 32.5%, and Scottish at 8.5%. Certain ethnic backgrounds show distinct differences in representation compared to the wider region: Australian Aboriginal residents account for 6.4% of the local population (compared to 4.6% regionally), Irish ancestry stands at 8.4% (compared to 8.8% regionally), and German ancestry is at 3.3% (compared to 3.1% regionally).

Tamworth Surrounds hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Tamworth Surrounds is 45 years, slightly higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and noticeably older than the national median of 38. The 5 - 14 age bracket is highly represented locally at 13.5% compared to the Regional NSW average, whereas the 25 - 34 bracket is underrepresented at 9.4%. Since 2021, the cohort aged 15 to 24 grew from 10.2% to 11.4% of the population, while the group aged 45 to 54 shrank from 13.7% to 12.6%. Future demographic projections suggest the age structure of Tamworth Surrounds will change by 2041, with the 25 to 34 age bracket expected to grow by 548 people (29%) from 1,914 to 2,463, while the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to decrease by 76 people.