Armidale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Armidale's population is 24,775 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 808 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 23,967. The increase is inferred from ABS estimates of 24,412 in June 2024 and an additional 578 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 90 persons per square kilometer. Armidale's growth rate of 3.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area average of 3.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Armidale is expected to increase by just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with an expected expansion of 1,919 persons to 2041, representing a total increase of 6.2% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Armidale when compared nationally

Armidale averaged around 120 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 601 homes. As of FY-26, 40 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value of new homes being built is $348,000.

In commercial development, $19.6 million in approvals have been registered this financial year, indicating balanced activity compared to the Rest of NSW, where Armidale shows moderately higher building activity at 22.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. New building activity comprises 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 82.0% houses. This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 121 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. By 2041, Armidale is projected to grow by 1,530 residents.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Armidale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 17 such projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Armidale East Mall Revitalisation, New England Renewable Energy Zone (REZ), Social Housing Development Initiative - Armidale, and Armidale Retail Precinct Expansion. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Armidale demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Armidale has an educated workforce with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.6%, lower than the Rest of NSW's 3.7%.

Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 3.9%. As of June 2025, 13,674 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below the regional average. Key industries include education & training, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Armidale specializes in education & training, with employment share at 2.3 times the regional level.

However, construction is under-represented, with only 6.9% of Armidale's workforce compared to 9.7% in Rest of NSW. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 3.9%, labour force grew by 3.2%, and unemployment fell by 0.6 percentage points. Meanwhile, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Armidale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Armidale's median income among taxpayers was $48,389 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $60,875 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Armidale would be approximately $54,491 and $68,551 based on a 12.61% growth since financial year 2022. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Armidale rank modestly between the 31st and 34th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 31.2% of Armidale's community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is similar to patterns seen at regional levels where 29.9% falls within this range. After housing expenses, 85.4% of income remains for other expenses in Armidale. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Armidale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Armidale, as per the latest Census evaluation, 82.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 18.0% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale stood at 33.1%, with mortgaged properties at 28.0% and rented dwellings at 38.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, surpassing Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in Armidale was $290, slightly higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $280. Nationally, Armidale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were also lower at $290 against the national figure of $375.

Armidale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 62.8% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households making up 4.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Armidale shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Armidale's educational attainment significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 35.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 19.5% in the SA4 region and 21.3% in the Rest of NSW. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.0% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (21.7%). Educational participation is notably high, with 38.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.3% in tertiary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 9.5% pursuing secondary education.

Sixteen schools serve 4,803 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes eight primary, three secondary, and five K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds residential needs, with 19.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.7, indicating Armidale serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armidale has 431 active public transport stops, served by 44 routes offering 1,037 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop is 158 meters. Daily service frequency averages 148 trips across all routes, equating to about two weekly trips per stop.

Service frequency averages 148 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population, around 12,387 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 9.6% and 8.8% of residents respectively. Around 66.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW figure at 65.5%. The area has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over, totaling 4,457 people, which is lower than the 20.2% in Rest of NSW.

In terms of cultural diversity, Armidale records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale's cultural diversity aligns with the wider region's average, with 80.9% citizens, 81.8% born in Australia, and 87.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 50.3%. The 'Other' category is overrepresented at 3.5%, compared to 2.4% regionally.

Top ancestry groups are English (27.8%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Notable divergences include Australian Aboriginal (5.8% vs regional 5.7%), Scottish (8.8% vs 8.9%), and German (3.6% vs 3.5%).

Armidale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Armidale's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. The 15-24 cohort is notably over-represented in Armidale at 18.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average and well above the national average of 12.5%. Conversely, those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 9.0%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.6% to 14.9%, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 17.3% to 18.4%. However, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.5% to 10.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Armidale's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 28%, adding 1,035 residents to reach a total of 4,729. Meanwhile, both the 5-14 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.