Armidale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Armidale's population is approximately 24,796 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 829 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 23,967. The population estimate for June 2024 was 24,410, with an additional 588 validated new addresses contributing to the growth. This results in a density ratio of 90 persons per square kilometer. Armidale's growth rate of 3.5% since the 2021 Census exceeds that of its SA3 area at 3.3%, indicating it is a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 80.1% of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Armidale is expected to increase its population by just below the median rate of Australia's non-metropolitan areas by 2041. The latest population numbers project an increase of 1,919 persons by 2041, representing a total increase of 6.1% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Armidale when compared nationally

Armidale averaged approximately 120 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, totaling 601 approvals from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, there have been 35 recorded approvals. Armidale's population has declined, suggesting new supply has kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $374,000, below regional norms, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $19.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, implying balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Armidale has slightly more development, with 22.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years, maintaining good buyer choice and supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 45.0% standalone homes and 55.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a trend toward denser development to provide accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix of 82.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Armidale has approximately 121 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections suggest Armidale will add 1,509 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Armidale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Eighteen projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area, with notable ones including Armidale East Mall Revitalisation, New England Renewable Energy Zone (REZ), Social Housing Development Initiative - Armidale, and Armidale Retail Precinct Expansion. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Armidale demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Armidale has a well-educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.6% as of the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 3.9%. As of June 2025, 13,674 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was on par with Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents included education & training, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

The area showed strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share 2.3 times the regional level. Construction had limited presence with 6.9% employment compared to 9.7% regionally. Many residents appeared to commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending Sep-25, employment increased by 3.9%, labour force grew by 3.2%, reducing unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and an increase in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 projected national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armidale's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this was a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Armidale's median income among taxpayers was $48,389 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $60,875 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimated median income in Armidale is approximately $53,518 as of March 2025, with average income estimated at $67,328 during the same period. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Armidale rank modestly, between the 31st and 34th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 31.2% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999, which mirrors regional levels where 29.9% fall within this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.4% of income remains for other expenses. Armidale's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Armidale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Armidale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.0% houses and 18.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NSW had 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale was at 33.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.0% and rented ones at 38.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Armidale was $1,500, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. Median weekly rent in Armidale was $290, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Armidale's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Armidale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 62.8% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households making up 4.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of NSW.

Armidale shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Armidale has a notably high level of educational attainment among its residents aged 15 and above. This is evident in the percentage of residents with university qualifications (35.1%), which exceeds both the SA4 region's figure of 19.5% and the Rest of NSW's average of 21.3%. The area has a strong focus on higher education, with bachelor degrees being the most prevalent at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.0% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (21.7%).

The educational participation rate in Armidale is high, at 38.1%. This includes a significant number of residents currently enrolled in tertiary education (11.3%), as well as primary (9.8%) and secondary (9.5%) education. The city is well-served by its educational facilities, with 16 schools catering to a total of 4,803 students. Armidale's schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions, with an ICSEA score of 966, indicating balanced educational opportunities. The mix of schools includes eight primary, three secondary, and five K-12 institutions. Notably, the city has a high school capacity ratio compared to its residential needs (19.4 places per 100 residents vs the regional average of 15.7), suggesting that Armidale serves as an educational hub for the broader region. Regarding dates, there are no explicit date substrings in the original text.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates that Armidale has 431 active transport stops, consisting of both train and bus services. These stops are served by 44 individual routes, which together facilitate 1,037 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated highly, with residents situated an average of 158 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 148 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 50% (~12,398 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues impact 9.6% of residents, while asthma affects 8.8%. About 66.1% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% in Rest of NSW. Around 18.0% (4,460 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than the 20.2% in Rest of NSW.

In terms of cultural diversity, Armidale records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 80.9% being Australian citizens, 81.8% born in Australia, and 87.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion at 50.3%. The category 'Other' is overrepresented at 3.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 2.4%.

Top ancestry groups are English (27.8%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal (5.8%) and Scottish (8.8%) are slightly overrepresented, while German (3.6%) is nearly equally represented compared to regional averages.

Armidale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Armidale's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38 years. The 15-24 cohort in Armidale is notably over-represented at 18.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 9.0%. This concentration of young adults is well above the national average of 12.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group has grown from 13.6% to 14.9%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 17.3% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 11.5% to 10.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Armidale's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25-34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 28%, adding 1,031 residents to reach 4,729. Meanwhile, both the 5-14 and 65-74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.