Armidale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Armidale's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 24,775. This figure represents a growth of 808 people, a 3.4% increase from the 2021 Census count of 23,967 residents. The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 24,412, with an additional 578 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density of 90 persons per square kilometer. Armidale's population growth rate of 3.4% since the 2021 census surpassed that of the SA3 area at 3.3%, indicating it as a region leader in growth. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 80.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Armidale is expected to experience population growth just below the median of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with an increase of 1,919 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 6.2% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Armidale when compared nationally

Armidale has averaged approximately 120 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 601 homes. As of FY-26, 51 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average value of new homes being built is $348,000.

This financial year, $19.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Armidale shows moderately higher building activity, with 22.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. New building activity comprises 45.0% detached dwellings and 55.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 82.0% houses. This change may indicate diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 121 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Armidale is expected to grow by 1,530 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Armidale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones include Armidale East Mall Revitalisation, New England Renewable Energy Zone (REZ), Armidale Retail Precinct Expansion, and Social Housing Development Initiative - Armidale. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.2%, Armidale has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Armidale has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.2%, lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Over the past year, employment stability has been relatively consistent. As of September 2025, 13,462 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.7% below the regional average. Workforce participation is on par with Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include education & training, health care & social assistance, and retail trade.

Education & training shows particularly strong specialization, with an employment share of 2.3 times the regional level. Conversely, construction has lower representation at 6.9% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. Some residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, Armidale's labour force increased by 0.4%, while employment declined by 0.1%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National projections from Jobs and Skills Australia indicate total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Armidale's current employment mix suggests local employment should increase by similar percentages over the same periods, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Armidale SA2's median income among taxpayers was $48,389 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $60,875 during the same period. These figures are lower than Rest of NSW's median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median income for Armidale SA2 as of September 2025 is approximately $54,491, with the average income estimated at $68,551. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Armidale rank modestly, between the 31st and 34th percentiles. Income distribution shows that 31.2% of individuals (7,729 people) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 band, which is consistent with surrounding regions' trends at 29.9%. After housing expenses, 85.4% of income remains for other expenses. Armidale SA2's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Armidale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Armidale's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.0% houses and 18.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Armidale was at 33.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.0% and rented ones at 38.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,500, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. The median weekly rent in Armidale was $290, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Armidale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 vs Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $290 vs the national figure of $375.

Armidale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 62.8% of all households, including 23.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.2%, with lone person households at 32.8% and group households making up 4.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of NSW.

Armidale shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Armidale's educational attainment is notably higher than broader averages. Among residents aged 15 and above, 35.1% possess university qualifications, surpassing the SA4 region's 19.5% and the Rest of NSW's 21.3%. This educational advantage is driven by a high proportion of bachelor degree holders (19.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (12.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 31.0% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (21.7%).

Educational participation is notably high in Armidale, with 38.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in tertiary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 9.5% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armidale has 431 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 44 routes that collectively facilitate 1,037 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

Daily service frequency averages 148 trips across all routes, translating to roughly 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~12,387 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues impact 9.6% of residents, while asthma affects 8.8%. A total of 66.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, which is slightly higher than the Rest of NSW figure at 65.5%. The area has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (4,457 people), lower than the 20.2% in Rest of NSW.

In terms of cultural diversity, Armidale records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, as 80.9% are citizens, 81.8% were born in Australia, and 87.0% speak English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 50.3% of Armidale residents. The 'Other' religious category is overrepresented in Armidale at 3.5%, compared to 2.4% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are English (27.8%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Some ethnic groups show notable variations: Australian Aboriginal is slightly higher at 5.8% in Armidale versus 5.7% regionally, Scottish is marginally lower at 8.8% compared to 8.9%, and German is slightly higher at 3.6% versus 3.5%.

Armidale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Armidale's median age is 35 years, which is significantly lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38 years. The 15-24 cohort is notably over-represented in Armidale at 18.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 9.0%. This concentration of the 15-24 age group is well above the national average of 12.5%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.6% to 14.9%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 17.3% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 11.5% to 10.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Armidale's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow strongly at 28%, adding 1,035 residents to reach a total of 4,729. However, both the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.