Armidale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Armidale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Armidale's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 24,796. This figure represents an increase from the 2021 Census count of 23,967 people, a growth of 829 individuals (3.5%). The estimated resident population in June 2024 was 24,410, combined with 588 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 90 persons per square kilometer. Armidale's growth rate since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (3.3%), positioning it as a regional growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Armidale is expected to increase its population by just below Australia's non-metropolitan median rate, reaching a total of 26,715 persons by 2041, an overall increase of 6.1% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Armidale when compared nationally

Armidale has averaged approximately 39 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, with a total of 197 approvals across the past five financial years from FY20 to FY25, and an additional 35 recorded in FY26 so far. This average has likely kept pace with demand despite population decline, offering buyers good choice while new homes are constructed at an average expected cost of $374,000, below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options. In this financial year, $19.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Armidale has slightly more development, with 23.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 45.0% standalone homes and 55.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards denser development to provide accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This trend marks a considerable change from the current housing mix of 82.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 121 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections show Armidale adding 1,509 residents by 2041.

Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Armidale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 29thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Armidale East Mall Revitalisation, New England Renewable Energy Zone (REZ), Social Housing Development Initiative - Armidale, and Armidale Retail Precinct Expansion. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Armidale demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Armidale has a highly educated workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.6% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.9%.

As of June 2025, 13,674 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation at par with Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include education & training, health care & social assistance, and retail trade. Notably, the area has a strong specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 2.3 times the regional level, while construction has limited presence at 6.9% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. Although local employment opportunities exist, many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

In the 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 3.9%, labour force grew by 3.2%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and an increase in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 shows that NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Armidale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Armidale's median income among taxpayers was $48,389 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $60,875 during the same period. In comparison, Rest of NSW had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By March 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Armidale would be approximately $53,518 and $67,328 based on a 10.6% growth rate since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Armidale ranked modestly, between the 31st and 34th percentiles. The earnings profile showed that 31.2% of individuals earned between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring regional levels where 29.9% occupied this bracket. After housing expenses, 85.4% of income remained for other expenses. Armidale's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Armidale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Armidale, as per the latest Census evaluation, 82.0% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 18.0% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 87.1% houses and 12.9% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Armidale was 33.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.0% and rented ones at 38.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,408. The median weekly rent figure for Armidale was $290, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $280. Nationally, Armidale's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Armidale features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 62.8% of all households, consisting of couples with children (23.1%), couples without children (27.2%), and single parent families (11.5%). Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.2%, including lone person households at 32.8% and group households at 4.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, aligning with the Rest of NSW average.

Armidale shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

Armidale's educational attainment is notably high, with 35.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to 19.5% in the SA4 region and 21.3% in the Rest of NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.0% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.3%) and certificates (21.7%). Educational participation is high, with 38.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.3% in tertiary education, 9.8% in primary education, and 9.5% pursuing secondary education.

Sixteen schools serve a total of 4,803 students in Armidale, which has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 966) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes eight primary, three secondary, and five K-12 schools. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 19.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 15.7, indicating that Armidale serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Armidale has 431 active public transport stops, including train and bus services. These are serviced by 44 routes offering a total of 1,037 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent accessibility to transport, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there is an average service frequency of 148 trips per day, equating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Armidale is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Armidale faces significant health challenges with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~12,398 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.6 and 8.8% of residents respectively. A total of 66.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.5% across Rest of NSW. The area has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (4,460 people), which is lower than the 20.2% in Rest of NSW.

In terms of cultural diversity, Armidale records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Armidale's cultural diversity was largely in line with the broader region, as seen by its population breakdown: 80.9% were citizens, 81.8% born in Australia, and 87.0% spoke English only at home. Christianity dominated Armidale's religious landscape, comprising 50.3% of its population. The most notable overrepresentation was seen in the 'Other' category, which made up 3.5% compared to Rest of NSW's 2.4%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (27.8%), Australian (26.9%), and Irish (9.4%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 5.8%, Scottish was slightly higher at 8.8%, and German was marginally so at 3.6%.

Armidale's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Armidale's median age is 35 years, which is significantly below the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38 years. The 15-24 cohort is notably over-represented in Armidale at 18.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 9.0%. This concentration of the 15-24 age group is well above the national average of 12.5%. Following the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.6% to 14.9%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 17.3% to 18.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 11.5% to 10.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Armidale's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 28%, adding 1,031 residents to reach 4,729. On the other hand, both the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 age groups will see reduced numbers.