Nambucca Heads Surrounds

Population growth drivers in Nambucca Heads Surrounds are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Nambucca Heads Surrounds' population was around 8,485 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 383 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 8,102. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 8,409 in June 2024 and an additional 134 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a density ratio of 6.3 persons per square kilometer. Nambucca Heads Surrounds' growth of 4.7% since the 2021 Census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 4.5%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 54.8% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 were used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is projected to increase by 1,533 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 17.2% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Nambucca Heads Surrounds when compared nationally

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has received approximately 42 dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 212 homes were approved and an additional 10 have been approved in FY-26 so far. This results in an average of about two new residents per year for each dwelling over these five years, indicating steady demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value of new homes is approximately $315,000. This financial year has seen around $4.6 million in commercial approvals, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Nambucca Heads Surrounds exhibits comparable development activity per person, contributing to market stability aligned with regional trends.

Recent construction comprises 97% detached houses and 3% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. There are approximately 222 people per dwelling approval in the location, reflecting a low-density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Nambucca Heads Surrounds is projected to grow by around 1,457 residents by 2041. Construction pace has been reasonable thus far but may face increasing competition as population growth continues.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 34thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to affect the area. Notable projects include Vista Apartments, Nambucca Heads Lifestyle Estate, Nambucca River Foreshore Walk and Cultural Way, and Main Beach Protective Seawall and Bleachers. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Nambucca Heads Surrounds has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 is 4.8%.

At this time, 3,869 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.0% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lags significantly at 50.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training. The area has a particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level.

Meanwhile, public administration & safety has limited presence with 4.6% employment compared to 7.5% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.3% while employment declined by 0.5%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.8 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, the labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. To provide broader context, state-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Nambucca Heads Surrounds. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to the local employment mix suggests that local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median income among taxpayers in Nambucca Heads Surrounds SA2 was $36,952 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $47,953 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW's which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimates suggest that as of September 2025, the median income would be approximately $41,612 and the average income around $54,000. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Nambucca Heads Surrounds fell between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. The income distribution showed that 28.5% of residents (2,418 people) earned within the $800 - $1,499 bracket, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket was dominant at 29.9%. After housing costs, 86.6% of income remained, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Nambucca Heads Surrounds had 97.0% houses and 3.1% other dwellings at the latest Census, compared to Non-Metro NSW's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nambucca Heads Surrounds was 52.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.4% and rented ones at 13.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,400, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent figure was $300, matching Non-Metro NSW's figure. Nationally, Nambucca Heads Surrounds' mortgage repayments were lower at $1,400 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were also lower at $300 compared to the national figure of $375.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 69.7% of all households, including 24.0% couples with children, 33.6% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 26.9% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Nambucca Heads Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 18.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.3% and certificates at 33.2%. Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.3% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has 267 active public transport stops. These include both train and bus services. There are 56 individual routes operating in total, providing a combined weekly passenger trip count of 738.

The average distance from residents' locations to the nearest transport stop is 348 meters. Across all routes, service frequency averages at 105 trips per day, equating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop. Transport accessibility within the area is rated as good.

Health performance in Nambucca Heads Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Nambucca Heads Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 46% (~3,903 people) have private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (8.9%). However, 62.5% report no medical ailments, higher than the Rest of NSW's 58.0%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 26.7% (2,268 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 28.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Nambucca Heads Surrounds had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 89.3% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.4%), and speaking English only at home (96.8%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 48.6% of the population. However, there was an overrepresentation in the 'Other' category, which accounted for 1.0% compared to 0.7% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.4%), Australian (31.0%), and Scottish (9.0%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal (4.4%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 7.5%, while Irish (8.9%) was slightly above the regional figure of 8.7%. Welsh ancestry was also higher at 0.5% than the regional average of 0.4%.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has a median age of 50, which is higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and also above the national average of 38. The age group of 55-64 shows strong representation at 16.6%, compared to Rest of NSW's figure, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.7%. This concentration of the 55-64 age group is well above the national average of 11.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 7.0% to 8.6%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 18.6% to 16.6%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Nambucca Heads Surrounds' age profile will evolve significantly. The 75 to 84 age cohort is projected to grow strongly, expanding by 281 people (38%) from 733 to 1,015. Meanwhile, the 15 to 24 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 3% (22 people).