Nambucca Heads Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Nambucca Heads Surrounds are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Nambucca Heads Surrounds' population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 8,457 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 355 people, a 4.4% rise since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 8,102. The growth is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 8,409 in June 2024 and an additional 122 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a population density of 6.2 persons per square kilometer. Nambucca Heads Surrounds' growth rate exceeded that of the SA3 area (4.3%), positioning it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration drove this growth, contributing about 54.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, regional areas are projected to have above median population growth. By 2041, the area is expected to increase by 1,533 persons, reflecting a total increase of 17.6% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Nambucca Heads Surrounds when compared nationally

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has received approximately 42 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports that between FY-21 and FY-25, around 212 dwellings were approved, with an additional 6 approved in FY-26 to date. Historically, each dwelling has attracted about 2 new residents per year on average over the past five financial years. The construction cost of new homes averages $483,000.

This year, there have been around $4.6 million in commercial approvals. When compared to the Rest of NSW, Nambucca Heads Surrounds demonstrates similar development activity per capita, indicating market stability aligned with regional trends. Recent construction consists predominantly of detached houses (97.0%) and a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (3.0%), maintaining the area's traditional low-density character.

There are approximately 222 people per dwelling approval, reflecting a low-density market. By 2041, Nambucca Heads Surrounds is projected to gain around 1,485 residents. Construction pace is currently steady with expected growth, although increasing competition among buyers may arise as population numbers rise.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 18thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that may affect the area. Notable projects include Vista Apartments, Nambucca Heads Lifestyle Estate, Nambucca River Foreshore Walk and Cultural Way, and Main Beach Protective Seawall and Bleachers. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Nambucca Heads Surrounds has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 4.8% as of June 2021.

Employment stability was relative over the past year, with 3,849 residents in work by June 2025. The unemployment rate was 1.1% above Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 50.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training.

The area has a specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share of 2.2 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety shows lower representation at 4.6% versus the regional average of 7.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.4%, and labour force increased by 0.8%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force expand by 0.3%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind national employment growth of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project an expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying growth rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Nambucca Heads Surrounds's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data shows Nambucca Heads Surrounds had a median taxpayer income of $36,952 and an average of $47,953 in financial year 2022. This is below the national averages of $49,459 (median) and $62,998 (average) for Rest of NSW. Based on a 10.6% Wage Price Index growth since FY2022, estimated incomes for March 2025 are approximately $40,869 (median) and $53,036 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Nambucca Heads Surrounds fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 28.5% of the population (2,410 individuals) earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. After housing costs, 86.6% of income remains, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Nambucca Heads Surrounds had 97.0% houses and 3.1% other dwellings in the latest Census, compared to Non-Metro NSW's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 52.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.4% and rented ones at 13.6%. Median monthly mortgage repayments were $1,400, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. Median weekly rent was $300, equal to Non-Metro NSW's figure. Nationally, Nambucca Heads Surrounds' mortgage repayments were lower at $1,400 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $300 compared to the national figure of $375.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.7% of all households, including 24.0% couples with children, 33.6% couples without children, and 11.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 30.3%, with lone person households at 26.9% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational outcomes in Nambucca Heads Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 18.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 10.3% and certificates at 33.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education. The five schools in Nambucca Heads Surrounds have a combined enrollment of 367 students. The educational mix consists of four primary schools and one K-12 school. Local school capacity is limited at 4.3 places per 100 residents, compared to the regional average of 13.1, resulting in many families traveling to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in the Nambucca Heads area shows that there are currently 267 active transport stops. These include a mix of train and bus services. The region is served by 56 different routes, which collectively facilitate 738 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically residing approximately 348 meters away from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency stands at 105 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Nambucca Heads Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

The health data for Nambucca Heads Surrounds indicates significant challenges with notable prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is particularly low at approximately 46% of the total population (~3,890 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (8.9%). A higher proportion of residents, 62.5%, report being completely free of medical ailments compared to the Rest of NSW at 58.0%. As of June 20XX, 26.7% of residents are aged 65 and over (~2,260 people), which is lower than the 28.1% in the Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Nambucca Heads Surrounds are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Nambucca Heads Surrounds was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 89.3% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (89.4%), and speaking English only at home (96.8%). Christianity is the dominant religion, comprising 48.6% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious group is overrepresented compared to Rest of NSW, with 1.0% versus 0.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (33.4%), Australian (31.0%), and Scottish (9.0%). There are divergences in representation for certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 4.4%, Irish at 8.9% compared to regional averages of 7.5% and 8.7% respectively, while Welsh is underrepresented at 0.5%.

Nambucca Heads Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Nambucca Heads Surrounds has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and also above the national average of 38. The 55-64 age group is strongly represented at 16.6%, compared to 7.7% for the 25-34 cohort in Nambucca Heads Surrounds, and 11.2% nationally. Following the census conducted on 2021 August 3rd, the 75-84 age group has increased from 7.0% to 8.6%, while the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 18.6% to 16.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Nambucca Heads Surrounds' age profile. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 284 people (39%), from 730 to 1,015. Meanwhile, the 15-24 cohort is expected to grow modestly by 3% (25 people).