Nambucca Heads

An assessment of population growth drivers in Nambucca Heads reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Nambucca Heads' population is approximately 7,324 as of November 2025. This figure shows an increase of 213 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 7,111. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 7,216 in June 2024 and an additional 205 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 235 persons per square kilometer. Nambucca Heads' growth rate of 3.0% since the census is within 1.5 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth rate of 4.5%. The primary driver for this growth was interstate migration, contributing approximately 79.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median for locations outside capital cities, with Nambucca Heads expected to grow by 952 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 11.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Nambucca Heads recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Nambucca Heads granted around 37 residential approvals annually. From FY-21 to FY-25, it approved 186 homes, with 23 more in FY-26 so far. Over these years, an average of one new resident arrived per new home built.

This indicates balanced supply and demand, stable market conditions, and an average dwelling value of $321,000. In FY-26, commercial approvals totaled $11.6 million, showing moderate commercial development. Nambucca Heads maintains similar construction rates to the rest of NSW, preserving its low-density nature with 84% standalone homes and 16% attached dwellings.

It reflects a low-density area with around 260 people per approval. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates Nambucca Heads will add 839 residents. Current development rates suggest new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, benefiting buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond projections.

Nambucca Heads has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Valla Urban Growth Area (VUGA), Vista Apartments, Nambucca Heads Lifestyle Estate, and the conversion of 14-22 Boundary Street Macksville into serviced apartments/tourism accommodation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Nambucca Heads face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Nambucca Heads has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, well-represented essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 8.0% as of September 2025. There are 2,477 residents employed, which is 4.2% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Nambucca Heads is significantly lower at 37.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area specializes in accommodation & food with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 2.0%, compared to the regional level of 5.3%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison. From September 2024 to September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.3% while employment declined by 0.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Statewide in NSW, from November 2024 to November 2025, employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a national expansion of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Nambucca Heads's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Nambucca Heads SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $39,093 and an average of $53,671. These figures are below the national average. The Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $44,023 (median) and $60,439 (average). Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Nambucca Heads fall between the 0th and 3rd percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that 37.5% of the population (2,746 individuals) earn within the $400 - $799 range, unlike metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. The concentration of 47.7% in sub-$800 weekly brackets suggests economic challenges for a significant portion of the community. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Nambucca Heads is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Nambucca Heads, as per the latest Census, consisted of 74.7% houses and 25.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Nambucca Heads was at 48.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 17.8% and rented ones at 34.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $285, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Nambucca Heads's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Nambucca Heads features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 55.3% of all households, including 14.0% couples with children, 27.8% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 44.7%, with lone person households at 41.6% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Nambucca Heads faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (31.7%).

A substantial 24.2% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, comprising 8.8% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 36 active stops operating within Nambucca Heads, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 30 individual routes, collectively offering 370 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 308 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 52 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Nambucca Heads is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Nambucca Heads, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~3,442 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 14.3% and 10.2% of residents respectively. Conversely, 51.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 58.0% across Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 36.0% (2,634 people), compared to the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Nambucca Heads is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Nambucca Heads, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity index of 39.2%, indicating below average diversity. 88.7% of its population were Australian citizens, with 87.3% born in Australia and 96.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 53.3%.

Judaism, however, was slightly overrepresented at 0.2%, compared to the Rest of NSW's 0.1%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.0%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (8.9%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were proportionally higher at 6.9% compared to the regional average of 7.5%, Scottish residents were at 8.4% versus 7.5%, and French residents at 0.5% against a regional average of 0.3%.

Nambucca Heads ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Nambucca Heads is 56 years, notably exceeding Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and significantly higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group shows strong representation at 18.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.0%. This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35-44 age group has grown from 8.2% to 9.2% of the population, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 15.8% to 14.4%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Nambucca Heads's age structure. The 35-44 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 30%, adding 203 residents to reach 881. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts.