South West Rocks

Population growth drivers in South West Rocks are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, South West Rocks statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 5,204. This reflects an increase of 146 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,058. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,137 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 217 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 380 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, South West Rocks (SA2) has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the area, expected to increase by 1,161 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 25.4% in total over these 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions South West Rocks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

South West Rocks recorded approximately 67 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 339 homes were approved, with an additional 7 approved in FY-26. On average, 1.4 new residents arrived per year for each new home over the past five financial years.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions. The average value of new dwellings was $429,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting focus on quality developments. In FY-26, $92,000 in commercial development approvals were recorded, predominantly reflecting residential focus. Compared to Rest of NSW, South West Rocks shows 138.0% higher construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and indicating strong developer confidence. New development consists of 86.0% standalone homes and 14.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character appealing to those seeking space.

The location has approximately 55 people per dwelling approval, confirming its low density market status. Future projections estimate South West Rocks adding 1,320 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

South West Rocks has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

Eight projects were identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include Broadlands South West Rocks, Maxus Gardens Estate, Seascape Grove Estate, and Seabreeze Estate. The following details those considered most relevant.

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Employment performance in South West Rocks has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

South West Rocks has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% as of September 2025.

This rate is 0.3% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in South West Rocks lags behind at 40.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

However, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 2.5%, compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 0.2% while labour force increased by 0.5%, resulting in a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a rise in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South West Rocks's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for local population changes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, South West Rocks had a median income among taxpayers of $39,917. The average income stood at $51,277. This is lower than national averages which were $52,390 and $65,215 for Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $43,454 (median) and $55,820 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in South West Rocks fell between the 2nd and 5th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income brackets indicate that 32.1% of locals (1,670 people) predominantly earn within the $400 - $799 weekly range, unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Lower income households are notably prevalent, with 40.2% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe in South West Rocks, with only 84.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

South West Rocks is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

South West Rocks dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 81.1% houses and 18.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro NSW's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in South West Rocks was at 54.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 20.3% and rented ones at 24.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. Median weekly rent in South West Rocks was $323, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, South West Rocks' mortgage repayments were lower at $1,517 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were lower at $323 compared to the national figure of $375.

South West Rocks features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.3% of all households, including 16.1% that are couples with children, 39.8% that are couples without children, and 9.4% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.7%, with lone person households at 30.9% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

South West Rocks faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 14.3%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 10.4% of residents holding one, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 43.0% having them; advanced diplomas account for 10.0%, while certificates make up 33.0%.

A total of 20.4% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.0% in primary, 5.5% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South West Rocks has 25 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 14 different routes that together offer 268 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated excellent, with residents usually located just 177 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 38 trips per day across all routes, which works out to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South West Rocks is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South West Rocks faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 47%, covering around 2,460 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.7%) and mental health issues (9.0%). Conversely, 55.5% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the 58.0% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 39.8%, or 2,071 people, compared to 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

South West Rocks is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

South West Rocks, as per the census data from 2016, displayed lower than average cultural diversity. The majority of its residents were born in Australia, with 89.6% holding this status, and 91.3% being Australian citizens. English was spoken exclusively at home by 97.0% of the population.

Christianity emerged as the predominant religion in South West Rocks, accounting for 57.5% of its inhabitants, slightly higher than the 54.2% figure across the Rest of NSW region. The parental birth country ancestry breakdown revealed English as the largest group at 34.8%, followed by Australian at 30.3%, and Irish at 10.0%. Some notable variations were observed in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.6% compared to the regional average of 7.5%, Scottish stood at 8.1% versus the regional 7.5%, and French represented 0.4% against a regional figure of 0.3%.

South West Rocks ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

South West Rocks has a median age of 58, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's figure of 38. The 65-74 age group comprises 20.6% of South West Rocks' population, compared to 14.9% in the Rest of NSW and 9.4% nationally. The 25-34 age group makes up 6.6% of South West Rocks' population. Between 2021 and the present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 12.6% to 14.7%, while the 35-44 cohort increased from 8.0% to 9.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 9.6% to 8.0%, and the 65-74 group decreased from 22.0% to 20.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that South West Rocks' age profile will change significantly, with the 85+ group expected to grow by 93%, reaching 452 people from 234.