Coffs Harbour - South

Population growth drivers in Coffs Harbour - South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Coffs Harbour - South's population is around 11,949 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 644 people (5.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,305 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,393 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 420 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 354 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Coffs Harbour - South's 5.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.5%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth for non-metropolitan areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to expand by 2,741 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 18.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Coffs Harbour - South when compared nationally

Coffs Harbour - South has seen around 85 new homes approved each year, with 427 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 26 so far in FY-26. At an average of just 0.2 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $330,000. Additionally, $149.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Coffs Harbour - South has 79.0% more development activity (per person), creating greater choice for buyers, though development activity has moderated in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 27.0% detached houses and 73.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 57.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 220 people per dwelling approval, Coffs Harbour - South shows characteristics of a low density area.

Future projections show Coffs Harbour - South adding 2,183 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Coffs Harbour - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 17 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Elements at Coffs, TAFE NSW Coffs Harbour Campus Upgrade, Coffs Harbour Affordable Housing, and Pacific Bay Resort Studios & Village, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Coffs Harbour - South recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Coffs Harbour - South features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 6.1%, and 3.9% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 4,850 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.1% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (53.9% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 11.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 3.0% versus the regional average of 5.8%. With 1.3 workers for every resident, as at the Census, the area functions as an employment hub, hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.9% while the labour force increased by 2.8%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Coffs Harbour - South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Coffs Harbour - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Coffs Harbour - South SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Coffs Harbour - South SA2's median income among taxpayers is $47,949 and the average income stands at $60,699, which compares to figures for Regional NSW's of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $52,197 (median) and $66,077 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Coffs Harbour - South all fall between the 14th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 27.5% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (3,285 residents), aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 12th percentile.

Coffs Harbour - South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Coffs Harbour - South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 56.6% houses and 43.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Coffs Harbour - South was lagging that of Regional NSW, at 34.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (22.8%) or rented (42.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Regional NSW average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $360, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Coffs Harbour - South's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Coffs Harbour - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 61.4% of all households, comprising 20.6% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 34.6% and group households comprising 3.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Coffs Harbour - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (21.1%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (28.8%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 113 active transport stops operating within Coffs Harbour - South, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 143 individual routes, collectively providing 2,079 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 206 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 4% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 11.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 297 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Coffs Harbour - South is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Coffs Harbour - South, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~5,878 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW, while the national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5 and 10.2% of residents, respectively, while 61.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 22.7% of residents aged 65 and over (2,712 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Coffs Harbour - South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Coffs Harbour - South was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 21.2% of its population born overseas and 13.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Coffs Harbour - South is Christianity, which makes up 51.5% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 3.8% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Coffs Harbour - South are English, comprising 29.3% of the population, Australian, comprising 27.3% of the population, and Other, comprising 10.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.8%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is represented at 4.0% of Coffs Harbour - South (vs 4.6% regionally), French at 0.5% (vs 0.4%) and Scottish at 7.8% (vs 8.0%).

Coffs Harbour - South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Coffs Harbour - South's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional NSW's 43 and well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Regional NSW, Coffs Harbour - South has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (13.3%) but fewer 65 - 74 year-olds (10.3%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 11.3% to 13.2% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.7% to 12.0%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has declined from 5.7% to 3.9% and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 11.7% to 10.3%. By 2041, Coffs Harbour - South is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 35 to 44 group will grow by 31% (480 people), reaching 2,053 from 1,572. The 65 to 74 group displays more modest growth at 6%, adding only 76 residents.