Coffs Harbour - South

Population growth drivers in Coffs Harbour - South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Coffs Harbour - South's population is around 11,949 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 644 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,305 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 11,393 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 423 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 354 persons per square kilometer. Coffs Harbour - South's growth rate of 5.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.4%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, an above median population growth is projected nationally for non-metropolitan areas. The area is expected to expand by 2,741 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 18.3% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Coffs Harbour - South when compared nationally

Coffs Harbour - South has seen approximately 85 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 427 homes were approved, with an additional 24 approved so far in FY26. On average, over these five years, about 0.2 new residents arrived per year for each new home built.

This pace of new construction has matched or exceeded demand, providing more options for buyers and facilitating population growth that could surpass current projections. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $330,000. In FY26, $149.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating strong local business investment. Compared to the rest of NSW, Coffs Harbour - South has seen 79.0% more development activity per person. This increased activity offers greater choice for buyers, although it has moderated in recent periods. Recent construction comprises 27.0% detached houses and 73.0% medium and high-density housing.

This shift towards higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, appealing to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. It also reflects the reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Currently, Coffs Harbour - South has around 220 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Coffs Harbour - South is projected to add approximately 2,183 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Coffs Harbour - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely to affect the area. Key projects include Elements at Coffs, TAFE NSW Coffs Harbour Campus Upgrade, Coffs Harbour Affordable Housing, and Pacific Bay Resort Studios & Village. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Coffs Harbour - South faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Coffs Harbour - South has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 6.9% in September 2025, showing room for improvement compared to the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.3%.

As of September 2025, 4,775 residents were employed, with workforce participation at 53.5%, significantly lower than the Rest of NSW average of 61.5%. A low 11.0% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food sectors. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, manufacturing shows lower representation at 3.0% compared to the regional average of 5.8%. There are 1.3 workers for every resident, indicating that the area functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.3% while labour force increased by 3.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Coffs Harbour - South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in Coffs Harbour - South SA2 was $47,949 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $60,699 during the same period. These figures compare to Rest of NSW's median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest a median income of approximately $52,197 and an average income of around $66,077 in Coffs Harbour - South SA2. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Coffs Harbour - South all fall between the 14th and 19th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 27.5% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (3,285 residents), similar to the broader area where this cohort represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Coffs Harbour - South SA2, with only 79.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Coffs Harbour - South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Coffs Harbour - South, as per the latest Census, comprised 56.6% houses and 43.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Coffs Harbour - South was at 34.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (22.8%) or rented (42.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent was $360, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Coffs Harbour - South's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also less at $360 compared to the national figure of $375.

Coffs Harbour - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.4% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 34.6% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Coffs Harbour - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.6% and certificates at 28.8%. Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.4% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 4.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Coffs Harbour - South indicates that there are 113 active transport stops operating in the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with a total of 143 individual routes providing weekly passenger trips amounting to 2,079. The accessibility of transport is considered good, with residents typically located approximately 206 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuting patterns involve outward travel, with the car being the dominant mode of transport at 91%, while walking accounts for 4%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 11% of residents work from home, which may be reflective of COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 297 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanying the analysis shows the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centrepoint.

Health performance in Coffs Harbour - South is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Coffs Harbour - South faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions affects both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 49% of the total population (~5,878 people) having it, compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.5%) and mental health issues (10.2%). However, 61.9% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.3% of residents aged 65 and over (2,787 people), with senior health outcomes presenting some challenges but broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Coffs Harbour - South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Coffs Harbour-South has a cultural diversity above average, with 21.2% of its population born overseas and 13.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Coffs Harbour-South, comprising 51.5% of its population. However, there's an overrepresentation in Other religions, which makes up 3.8%, compared to 0.8% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are English (29.3%), Australian (27.3%), and Other (10.2%). The latter is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.8%. There are notable divergences in certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 4.0% (vs regional 4.6%), French at 0.5% (vs 0.4%), and Scottish at 7.8% (vs 8.0%).

Coffs Harbour - South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Coffs Harbour - South's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Coffs Harbour - South has a higher percentage of 25-34 year-olds (13.0%) but fewer 65-74 year-olds (10.5%). Between 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 11.3% to 12.9%, while the 15-24 cohort rose from 10.7% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 85+ group decreased from 5.7% to 4.1% and the 65-74 group fell from 11.7% to 10.5%. By 2041, Coffs Harbour - South's age composition is expected to change notably. The 35-44 group will grow by 33%, adding 513 people and reaching 2,053 from 1,539. The 65-74 group will grow more modestly at 4%, adding only 47 residents.