Coffs Harbour - South

Population growth drivers in Coffs Harbour - South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Coffs Harbour - South's population is 11,488 as of May 2026. This figure represents a 1.6% increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,305. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 11,468 in June 2025 and 424 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 340 persons per square kilometer. Coffs Harbour - South's growth rate of 1.6% is within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.7%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 97.3% of overall gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a significant increase in the top quartile of national regional areas, with Coffs Harbour - South expected to expand by 2,518 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 21.7% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Coffs Harbour - South when compared nationally

Coffs Harbour - South has seen approximately 85 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 427 homes were approved, with an additional 32 approved in FY26 as of current data. The average growth rate is about 0.2 new residents per year for each new home constructed over these years.

This pace suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and facilitating population growth that may surpass current projections. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $330,000. In the current financial year, commercial development approvals total $149.0 million, indicating strong local business investment. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Coffs Harbour - South has seen an 81.0% increase in development activity per capita. Recent construction trends show 27.0% detached houses and 73.0% medium to high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 57.0% houses. This change is due partly to reduced availability of development sites and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

With approximately 220 people per dwelling approval, Coffs Harbour - South exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the region is projected to add around 2,496 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with these growth projections, although heightened competition among buyers may arise as the population continues to grow.

Coffs Harbour - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Elements at Coffs, TAFE NSW Coffs Harbour Campus Upgrade, Pacific Bay Resort Studios & Village, and Coffs Harbour Affordable Housing. The following list provides details on those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Coffs Harbour - South recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Coffs Harbour - South has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 6.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.9%. As of December 2025, there are 4850 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.2%, which is 2.1% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation is lower at 53.4% compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, only 11.0% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. The area has a high specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, but manufacturing shows lower representation at 3.0%.

There are 1.3 workers for every resident, indicating it functions as an employment hub attracting workers from surrounding areas. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.9% while labour force increased by 2.8%, causing a decrease in unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6%, with local employment projected to increase by 6.9%. Over ten years, national employment is forecast to grow by 13.7%, and local employment is projected to increase by 14.3%.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The median income among taxpayers in Coffs Harbour - South SA2 was $47,949 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $60,699 during the same period. These figures compare to Regional NSW's median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes are approximately $52,897 (median) and $66,963 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census figures from 2021, household, family, and personal incomes in Coffs Harbour - South all fall between the 14th and 19th percentiles nationally. The largest income bracket comprises 27.5% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly (3,159 residents), which aligns with the broader area where this cohort also represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Coffs Harbour - South, with only 79.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Coffs Harbour - South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Coffs Harbour - South's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 56.6% houses and 43.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Coffs Harbour - South was 34.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.8% and rented dwellings at 42.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $360, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Coffs Harbour - South's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less at $360 than the national figure of $375.

Coffs Harbour - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 61.4% of all households, including 20.6% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 13.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 34.6% and group households comprising 3.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Coffs Harbour - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 21.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 10.6% and certificates at 28.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.4% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 4.3% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Coffs Harbour - South has 113 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 143 routes, facilitating 2,079 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents on average located 206 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most commuters travel outward, predominantly by car (91%), with walking accounting for 4%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, only 11% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

On average, service frequency is 297 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop. The provided map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Coffs Harbour - South is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Coffs Harbour - South faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% (5,652 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.5%) and mental health issues (10.2%). 61.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 23.4% (2,685 people) aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors are generally aligned with national rankings.

In terms of cultural diversity, Coffs Harbour - South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Coffs Harbour-South's cultural diversity was above average, with 21.2% of its population born overseas and 13.9% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity dominated the religious landscape in Coffs Harbour-South, comprising 51.5%. The most notable overrepresentation was in Other religions, which accounted for 3.8%, compared to Regional NSW's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (29.3%), Australian (27.3%), and Other (10.2%), significantly higher than regional averages. Notable divergences existed for certain ethnicities: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.0% in Coffs Harbour-South compared to Regional NSW's 4.6%, French at 0.5% versus 0.4%, and Scottish at 7.8% versus 8.0%.

Coffs Harbour - South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Coffs Harbour - South's median age is 44 years, similar to Regional NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, Coffs Harbour - South has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (13.1%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.7%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the age group 35-44 has grown from 11.3% to 12.9%, while the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.7% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort declined from 5.7% to 4.0%, and the 65-74 group decreased from 11.7% to 10.7%. By 2041, Coffs Harbour - South's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 34%, adding 512 people and reaching a total of 1,999 residents. The 65-74 group is expected to grow more modestly, by 9%, adding only 115 residents.