Coffs Harbour - South

Population growth drivers in Coffs Harbour - South are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

According to the analysis conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Coffs Harbour - South is estimated to be approximately 11,488 as of May 2026. This represents an expansion of 183 residents (1.6%) since the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 11,305 people. This shift is calculated using the ABS estimated resident population of 11,468 from June 2025 alongside an influx of 424 validated new addresses registered since the Census. Such population numbers translate to a density of 340 persons per square kilometer, which indicates substantial space per resident and capacity for future expansion. The 1.6% post-census growth rate of Coffs Harbour - South lags the broader SA3 region (3.7%) by 2.1 percentage points, indicating competitive local development dynamics. The primary driver of this population growth was overseas migration, which was responsible for roughly 97.3% of the total population increase in recent times.

Projections from ABS/Geoscience Australia published in 2024 using 2022 as a baseline are implemented by AreaSearch for each SA2. For SA2 regions lacking this coverage, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are applied instead. The age bracket growth rates derived from these sources are extended to cover all locations for the span from 2032 to 2041. Future demographic trends indicate a major population rise that places the area in the highest national regional quartile, with a projected expansion of 2,518 individuals by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, which indicates a net rise of 21.7% over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Coffs Harbour - South when compared nationally

Approvals for new residential properties in Coffs Harbour - South run at roughly 85 annually, culminating in 427 residential approvals over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and an additional 72 registered during FY-26. Because only 0.2 new residents per year moved in per approved home over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, residential construction is keeping pace with or outrunning demand, providing prospective buyers with broader selection and enabling population increases that could outstrip current projections, while new properties average a construction cost of $330,000. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $149.0 million during the current financial year, pointing to strong corporate investment locally.

Per capita development activity in Coffs Harbour - South is 81.0% higher than the Rest of NSW average, offering more options to purchasers, even though construction volumes have slowed down lately. Recent building approvals consist of 27.0% detached houses and 73.0% medium to high-density dwellings. Focusing on multi-unit layouts offers more economical price points and caters to downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a major shift away from the current residential landscape (where houses make up 57.0% of stock), indicating a scarcity of vacant land and resolving changing buyer tastes and budget constraints. Reflecting its spacious nature, Coffs Harbour - South averages about 221 individuals for every residential approval.

Long-term forecasts indicate that Coffs Harbour - South will gain 2,496 inhabitants by 2041 based on the most recent AreaSearch quarterly projections. Although construction rates are tracking alongside these growth forecasts, home buyers could face tougher competition as the overall population rises.

Coffs Harbour - South has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and development initiatives are major drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 projects expected to influence the local area. Principal developments include Elements at Coffs, TAFE NSW Coffs Harbour Campus Upgrade, Pacific Bay Resort Studios & Village, and Coffs Harbour Affordable Housing, with the key details of these projects listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Coffs Harbour - South faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Coffs Harbour - South has a skilled resident labor force with solid representation in essential services, showing an unemployment rate of 6.4% and an estimated annual job growth rate of 1.6%. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 4,785, while the unemployment rate was 2.3% higher than the Regional NSW benchmark of 4.1%, and the participation rate of 52.8% was significantly lower than the Regional NSW average of 60.6%. Census data indicates that only 11.0% of local workers operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by COVID-19 lockdowns.

Resident employment is primarily centered in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. The region demonstrates a strong specialty in the health care & social assistance sector, where the employment concentration is 1.4 times the regional benchmark. In contrast, manufacturing is underrepresented, making up only 3.0% of jobs compared to the regional benchmark of 5.8%. Registering 1.3 jobs for every resident at the time of the Census, the locality operates as an employment center that imports workers from neighboring districts.

AreaSearch assessment of SALM and ABS data shows that during the 12 months ending March 2026, the local workforce grew by 0.3% and employment rose by 1.6%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. Over the same timeframe, Regional NSW recorded a 0.9% drop in employment and a 0.4% contraction in the labor force, with unemployment rising by 0.5 percentage points. Projections from Jobs and Skills Australia issued in May-25 offer additional perspectives on prospective employment demand in Coffs Harbour - South. These five and ten-year projections have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future employment trends. While overall national employment is expected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the rates of change vary widely across different industries. Applying these weighted national projections to the local employment mix suggests Coffs Harbour - South's jobs should grow by 6.9% over five years and 14.3% over ten years, though this is a basic weighting exercise that does not account for local population changes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on taxpayer statistics from the ATO compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, personal income in the Coffs Harbour - South SA2 is positioned below the national benchmark. Taxpayers in the Coffs Harbour - South SA2 recorded a median income of $47,949 and an average income of $60,699, compared to Regional NSW averages of $52,390 and $65,215. Adjusting these figures for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since financial year 2023 yields estimated values of approximately $52,897 for the median and $66,963 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census highlights that family, household, and individual incomes in Coffs Harbour - South lie between the 14th and 19th percentiles nationwide. The dominant weekly earnings bracket is $1,500 - 2,999, accounting for 27.5% of taxpayers (3,159 people), which is similar to the wider regional share of 29.9% for this group. Housing costs place a major burden on households, leaving only 79.9% of income available after housing costs, which ranks at the 12th percentile.

Coffs Harbour - South displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

According to the most recent Census, the local housing stock consisted of 56.6% stand-alone houses and 43.5% alternative housing types like townhouses and apartments, compared to Regional NSW where houses represent 82.6% of properties and alternative formats account for 17.4%. The rate of home ownership in Coffs Harbour - South was lower than the regional rate, standing at 34.2%, while the remaining properties were either mortgaged (22.8%) or occupied by tenants (42.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,733 matched the Regional NSW benchmark, whereas the median weekly rent of $360 was higher than the regional median of $330. On a national level, local mortgage costs sit below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also lower than the national benchmark of $375.

Coffs Harbour - South features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 61.4%, consisting of couples with children (20.6%), couples without children (26.7%), and single parent homes (13.2%). Non-family living situations account for the other 38.6% of properties, with lone persons making up 34.6% and group households representing 3.9%. The median number of residents per household is 2.3, which is slightly below the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Coffs Harbour - South shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The locality displays low levels of tertiary education, with 21.1% of residents holding a university qualification, which is below the state average of 32.2%. This gap highlights opportunities for focused education campaigns. Among university graduates, Bachelor degrees are most common at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational training is prominent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (10.6%) and certificates (28.8%).

A high proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in an educational institution. This includes 10.4% in primary schools, 8.1% in high schools, and 4.3% in higher education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of local transit options reveals 113 operational train and bus stops within Coffs Harbour - South. These transit points are linked to 143 distinct routes, providing a total of 2,079 passenger services each week. Accessibility is good, with residents living an average of 206 meters from their nearest transit stop. Commuter patterns reflect the residential nature of the area, with 91% of workers traveling by car and 4% walking. Car ownership averages 1.1 vehicles per household, which is below the regional average. Remote work is relatively uncommon, with only 11.0% of residents working from home during the 2021 Census, potentially reflecting pandemic-era trends.

Transit routes average 297 daily services, which translates to roughly 18 weekly departures per stop. The map shows the locations of the 100 closest transit stops relative to the center of the area.

Health performance in Coffs Harbour - South is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality data and the incidence of long-term sickness indicates that Coffs Harbour - South faces notable health struggles across multiple age groups, while the rate of private health insurance is low at roughly 49% of the population (~5,652 people). This is below the Regional NSW insurance rate of 51.9% and the national benchmark of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health concerns, affecting 10.5% and 10.2% of the population. Meanwhile, 61.9% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, which is slightly below the 63.3% recorded across Regional NSW. Health issues are prominent among working-age individuals, who exhibit elevated rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and older make up 23.4% of the population (2,685 people). Senior health outcomes match national averages for this age group.

In terms of cultural diversity, Coffs Harbour - South records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Coffs Harbour - South exhibits higher cultural diversity than the regional average, with 21.2% of residents born outside Australia and 13.9% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the dominant religious affiliation, representing 51.5% of the population. The most prominent statistical divergence is in the Other religious category, which accounts for 3.8% of the local population compared to 0.8% across Regional NSW.

In terms of family heritage, the primary ancestries reported are English at 29.3%, Australian at 27.3%, and Other at 10.2%, which is higher than the regional average of 4.8%. There are also distinct concentrations of other groups, with Australian Aboriginal residents making up 4.0% of the population (compared to 4.6% across the region), French at 0.5% (compared to 0.4%), and Scottish at 7.8% (compared to 8.0%).

Coffs Harbour - South hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Coffs Harbour - South is 44 years, which is close to the Regional NSW average of 43 years and higher than the national median of 38 years. Compared to the wider region, the area has a larger cohort of residents aged 25 - 34 (13.1%) but fewer aged 65 - 74 (10.7%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age bracket has risen from 11.3% to 12.9% of the population, and the 15 to 24 group has grown from 10.7% to 11.7%. Meanwhile, the cohort aged 85 and over has decreased from 5.7% to 4.0%, and the 65 to 74 group has declined from 11.7% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate shifts in the local age profile, led by a 34% increase in the 35 to 44 cohort (an increase of 512 people, growing from 1,486 to 1,999), while the 65 to 74 group is expected to grow by a more modest 9%, adding 115 residents.