Urunga

An assessment of population growth drivers in Urunga reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Urunga statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,241, reflecting an increase of 56 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of approximately 1.8%. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,232 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 40 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 66 persons per square kilometer. Overseas migration contributed approximately 64.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts projections from ABS/Geoscience Australia for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Urunga (SA2) is expected to grow by approximately 186 persons to reach a total population of around 3,427 by the year 2041. This projected increase reflects a growth rate of about 5.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Urunga recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Urunga has experienced around 8 dwellings receiving development approval per year. An estimated 43 homes were approved over the past 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, with a further 6 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling built has resulted in approximately 2.3 new residents per year over these five financial years.

This suggests solid demand supporting property values, with new homes being constructed at an average expected cost of $491,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, commercial development approvals totaling $358,000 have been recorded this financial year, reflecting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of NSW, Urunga records about 64% of building activity per person, placing it among the 60th percentile nationally, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. This is lower than national levels, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints.

All new construction consists of detached dwellings, maintaining Urunga's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This preference for detached housing exceeds current patterns (81.0% at Census), indicating ongoing robust demand for family homes despite increasing density pressures. With around 248 people per approval, Urunga reflects a low density area. Future projections estimate Urunga adding 172 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Current construction levels suggest housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Urunga has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence the local area significantly. These key projects include Sewering Coastal Villages Project, Urunga Boardwalk Replacement, Waterfall Way Corridor Strategy, and Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane. The following details the projects likely to have the greatest impact on the area.

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The employment landscape in Urunga shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Urunga has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 4.3% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.8%.

As of September 2025, 1,238 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.4% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Urunga lags at 44.9%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 1.9% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.8% while labour force rose by 3.2%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Urunga's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this extrapolation does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Urunga had a median taxpayer income of $42,187 and an average income of $52,057 in the financial year 2023, based on postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national averages, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 during the same period. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $45,925 (median) and $56,669 (average), accounting for Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Urunga all fell within the 5th to 10th percentiles nationally. Income analysis showed that the $400 - 799 income bracket dominated with 28.9% of residents (936 people), unlike the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category was predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe in Urunga, with only 82.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 6th percentile nationally.

Urunga is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Urunga's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 81.4% houses and 18.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro NSW's 78.4% houses and 21.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Urunga was at 49.0%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (22.7%) or rented (28.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Urunga was $1,647, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Urunga was recorded at $340, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Urunga's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Urunga features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.0% of all households, including 16.9% couples with children, 32.6% couples without children, and 13.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.0%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households comprising 4.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4 people.

Educational outcomes in Urunga fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 19.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.7%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 42.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (32.4%). A total of 24.0% of the population is actively engaged in formal education, including 9.2% in primary, 6.2% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

A substantial 24.0% of the population actively pursues formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.2% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Urunga has 26 active public transport stops operating, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 22 individual routes, collectively providing 445 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 238 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 63 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Urunga is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Urunga faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is notably low at approximately 48%, covering around 1,542 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 12.6% and 9.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 58.0% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. Urunga has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 35.6%, or around 1,153 people, compared to the 23.9% in Rest of NSW. Notably, health outcomes among seniors in Urunga are above average, even outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Urunga placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Urunga had a lower than average cultural diversity, with 90.9% of its residents being citizens and 90.0% born in Australia. English was the language spoken at home by 97.1% of Urunga's population. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 51.3% of people.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented in Urunga, comprising 0.2% compared to 0.1% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English at 32.7%, Australian at 31.5%, and Irish at 10.5%. Notably, Scottish ancestry was slightly overrepresented at 8.8%, while Australian Aboriginal was at 3.8% (versus regional figures of 4.0%) and Welsh was present at 0.5%.

Urunga ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Urunga's median age is 55 years, which is considerably higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and the national norm of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 65-74 year-olds are particularly prominent at 20.5%, while the 25-34 year-olds are comparatively smaller at 6.8%. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 8.3% to 10.2%, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 19.4% to 20.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 year-olds have declined from 11.8% to 9.5%, and the 25 to 34 year-olds dropped from 8.3% to 6.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Urunga's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to increase solidly by 109 people (30%) from 369 to 479. Demographic aging continues as residents aged 65 and older represent 66% of anticipated growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 year-olds and the 65 to 74 year-olds.