Toormina

Toormina has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As per AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since Feb 2026, the suburb of Toormina had an estimated population of around 6,382. This figure reflects a rise of 211 people (3.4%) from the 2021 Census total of 6,171 inhabitants. AreaSearch's estimate is based on a resident population of 6,218 derived from examining the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio stands at 1,181 persons per square kilometer, aligning with averages observed across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Toormina's growth rate of 3.4% since the census is within 2.1 percentage points of the SA3 area's figure of 5.5%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Applying growth rates by age group from these aggregations to all areas projects a decline in overall population by 129 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, projected to expand by 209 people during this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Toormina according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Toormina shows approximately 7 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 39 homes. By FY26, 9 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 3.7 new residents arrive per year per dwelling constructed between FY21 and FY25. Commercial development approvals in FY26 total $1.6 million, indicating minimal commercial activity.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Toormina has significantly lower building activity, at 70.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Recent years have seen increased building activity, though it remains under the national average, suggesting potential planning limitations. All recent development in Toormina consists of detached houses, maintaining its traditional suburban character focused on family homes. Developers are constructing more detached housing than the existing pattern implies (65.0% at Census), reflecting strong demand for family homes despite densification trends.

The area has approximately 661 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. With stable or declining population forecasts, Toormina may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Toormina has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence this region: Boambee East Residential Subdivision, Toormina Oval Upgrade, North Boambee Valley (East) Release Area, and Coffs Harbour Bypass. The following details those likely to have the most relevance.

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Toormina shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Toormina's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.8% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 1.9%. As of September 2025, 2,520 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 3.8%.

Workforce participation is lower at 52.1% versus the regional average of 61.5%. According to Census data, 7.8% of residents work from home. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. Retail trade has a strong presence with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is limited at 2.3%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by resident population versus working population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, labour force by 3.2%, leading to a 1.1 percentage point rise in unemployment. Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's May-25 national employment forecasts project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Toormina's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Toormina's income level is lower than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The suburb's median income among taxpayers is $39,651 and the average income stands at $47,704, compared to figures for Rest of NSW of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $43,164 (median) and $51,931 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Toormina all fall between the 5th and 10th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 30.4% of the community (1,940 individuals), contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile.

Toormina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Toormina, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.2% houses and 34.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toormina was at 32.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.3%) or rented (37.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent was $335, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Toormina's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Toormina features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.1% of all households, including 19.2% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 16.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households making up 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Toormina faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (32.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toormina has 64 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 46 individual routes, collectively facilitating 1,118 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 186 meters from the nearest stop. As predominantly residential, most commutes are outward-bound, with car being the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average. In 2021 Census data, 7.8% of residents worked from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 159 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toormina is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toormina faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally low at approximately 46% of Toormina's total population (~2,928 people), compared to 51.9% in the rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.1% of residents) and mental health issues (11.2%). Conversely, 54.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in the rest of NSW. Working-age individuals face substantial health challenges due to higher chronic condition rates. The area has a larger proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 27.6% (1,761 people), compared to 23.4% in the rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some difficulties, generally aligning with national rankings.

Toormina is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toormina's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.8% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia at a rate of 88.0%, and speaking English only at home at 95.2%. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 51.9% of Toormina's population. Notably, the category 'Other' was overrepresented at 1.2%, compared to 0.8% across the rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.0%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (8.7%). There were also notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 6.2% (vs regional 4.6%), Hungarian at 0.3% (vs 0.2%), and Scottish at 8.2% (vs 8.0%).

Toormina hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Toormina has a median age of 45 years, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 years and considerably older than Australia's national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, Toormina has a notably higher percentage of people aged 75-84 (10.9% locally) but a lower percentage of those aged 55-64 (10.7%). Between 2021 and present, the age group 75 to 84 has increased from 9.6% to 10.9% of Toormina's population while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 12.6% to 10.7%. Additionally, the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 11.3% to 10.0%. Demographic modeling indicates that by 2041, Toormina's age profile will change significantly with the 85+ age cohort projected to grow by 204 people (57%), from 357 to 562. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 99% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 25 to 34 and 45 to 54 cohorts.