Toormina

Toormina has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

By May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Toormina is around 6,220. This figure reflects an increase of 49 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,171. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2025, indicating a resident population of 6,213 plus an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 1,151 persons per square kilometer. The suburb's 0.8% growth since the census is within 2.9 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate (3.7%), suggesting competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed around 71.0% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. These projections indicate an overall population decline in the suburb by 193 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 85 and over age group, projected to expand by 220 people during this period.

The level of residential development activity in Toormina is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Toormina has recorded around 7 residential properties granted approval per year. Approximately 39 homes were approved over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with 9 so far in FY-26. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas.

The average construction cost value of new properties is $505,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This year, $1.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting Toormina's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Toormina has significantly less development activity (70.0% below regional average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. However, building activity has accelerated in recent years. This level is also lower than nationally, indicative of market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent development has been entirely comprised of standalone homes, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (65.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. With around 654 people per dwelling approval, Toormina reflects a highly mature market. Given population is expected to remain stable or decline, Toormina should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Toormina has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Two key projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to influence the region: Boambee East Residential Subdivision, Toormina Oval Upgrade, North Boambee Valley (East) Release Area, and Coffs Harbour Bypass. Details of these major initiatives follow.

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Employment conditions in Toormina remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Toormina has a balanced workforce encompassing white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.5% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 2.7%. As of December 2025, 2,479 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 4.5%, which is 0.6% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation was lower at 50.0%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, only 7.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food, with retail trade being particularly strong at 1.5 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 2.3%, compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 2.7% while labour force grew by 1.9%, leading to a unemployment rate decrease of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 1.2%, labour force decline by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Toormina's employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Toormina had a median taxpayer income of $39,651 and an average income of $47,704. These figures are below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 in Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $43,743 (median) and $52,627 (average). Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Toormina fall between the 5th and 10th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 30.4% of individuals earn between $400 and $799, differing from surrounding regions where earnings mainly fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 band at 29.9%. Housing affordability is severe with only 78.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Toormina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Toormina, as recorded at the Census held on 28 August 2016, consisted of 65.2% houses and 34.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toormina stood at 32.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 37.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Toormina was recorded as $335, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Toormina's median mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national average of $375.

Toormina features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 62.1% of all households, including 19.2% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 16.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Toormina faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.6%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 11.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 41.8% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (32.2%). Educational participation is high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.8% in primary, 8.2% in secondary, and 2.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Toormina has 64 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 46 unique routes, facilitating 1,118 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is high with residents typically residing 186 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuting in this residential area is outward-bound, with cars being the dominant mode at 93%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, only 7.8% of residents work from home, which could be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 159 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Toormina is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toormina faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions significantly impact both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover in Toormina is extremely low at approximately 46% (~2,853 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (11.2%). Conversely, 54.7% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (28.5%, 1,772 people) than Regional NSW (23.4%). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Toormina is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toormina's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.8% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (88.0%), and speaking English only at home (95.2%). Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 51.9% of Toormina's population. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which constituted 1.2% compared to Regional NSW's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups were English (32.0%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (8.7%). Notably, there were divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 6.2% compared to Regional NSW's 4.6%, Hungarian at 0.3% versus 0.2%, and Scottish at 8.2% versus 8.0%.

Toormina hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Toormina has a median age of 45 years, which is slightly higher than Regional NSW's median age of 43 years, and considerably older than the national median age of 38 years. Compared to the Regional NSW average, Toormina has a notably higher proportion of people aged 75-84 (11.3% locally), while those aged 55-64 are under-represented at 11.0%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.1%. Since 2021, the proportion of people aged 75 to 84 has grown from 9.6% to 11.3%, while those aged 15 to 24 have increased from 10.2% to 11.6%. Conversely, the proportion of people aged 55 to 64 has declined from 12.6% to 11.0%. Demographic modeling suggests that Toormina's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The number of people aged 85 and above is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 216 individuals (60%) from 360 to 577. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 96% of the total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, population declines are projected for those aged 45 to 54 and 0 to 4 years old.