Toormina

Toormina has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Toormina's population is estimated at around 6,058 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease of 113 people (1.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,171 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,022, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 13 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,121 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 71.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to shrink by 137 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 85 and over age group, which is projected to expand by 212 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Toormina according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Toormina has recorded around 5 residential properties granted approval per year. Approximately 29 homes were approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with 1 approval so far in FY-26.

On average, about 5 new residents arrive annually per dwelling constructed during these years. This supply is substantially lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures, while new properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $505,000. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Toormina shows significantly reduced construction activity (78.0% below regional average per person), supporting stronger demand and values for established homes. This activity is also below national averages, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Notably, all new constructions have been detached houses, sustaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited to buyers seeking space.

Developers are constructing more detached housing than previously implied (65.0% at Census), suggesting persistent strong demand for family homes. With around 966 people per dwelling approval, Toormina reflects a highly mature market. Future projections estimate Toormina adding 99 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Assuming current development patterns continue, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Toormina has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 48thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Notable projects include Boambee East Residential Subdivision, Toormina Oval Upgrade, North Boambee Valley (East) Release Area, and Coffs Harbour Bypass. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Toormina has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Toormina's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent representation from essential services sectors. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 5.1%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.9% over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, 2,527 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 1.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 48.6%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. Retail trade showed particularly strong specialization with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing had lower representation at 2.3% versus the regional average of 5.3%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 1.9%, while labour force grew by 3.5%, resulting in a 1.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Toormina. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Toormina's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Toormina had a median income among taxpayers of $39,651 and an average of $47,704. This is lower than national averages. Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Toormina by September 2025 would be approximately $44,651 (median) and $53,719 (average). The 2021 Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Toormina fall between the 5th and 10th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 30.4% of residents (1,841 people) earn between $400 and $799 annually, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 to $2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Toormina, with only 78.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Toormina displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Toormina's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.2% houses and 34.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 78.4% houses and 21.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Toormina stood at 32.6%, with mortgaged properties at 30.3% and rented ones at 37.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,517, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Toormina was $335, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Toormina's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,517 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower at $335 compared to the national figure of $375.

Toormina features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.1% of all households, including 19.2% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 16.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.9%, with lone person households at 34.7% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4 people.

Toormina faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 15.6%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (32.2%).

Educational participation is high at 27.7%, including 10.8% in primary education, 8.2% in secondary education, and 2.0% pursuing tertiary education. Toormina's five schools have a combined enrollment of 1,571 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates varied educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 947. Educational institutions include three primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. As an education hub, the area offers 25.9 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 15.6, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 47 active transport stops in Toormina, including a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 48 individual routes, providing a total of 1,155 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 187 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 165 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 24 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Toormina is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Toormina faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 46% (around 2,779 people), compared to 48.0% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.1%) and mental health issues (11.2%).

Conversely, 54.7% reported no medical ailments, lower than the 63.9% in Rest of NSW. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 27.4% (1,659 people), higher than the 23.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are challenging, generally aligning with the broader population's health profile.

Toormina is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Toormina had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.8% of its population being Australian citizens, 88.0% born in Australia, and 95.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Toormina, comprising 51.9% of the population. However, the most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, which made up 1.2% of the population compared to 3.3% across the rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups represented were English (32.0%), Australian (29.9%), and Irish (8.7%). Notably, some ethnic groups had different representations: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 6.2% in Toormina compared to 4.0% regionally, Hungarian at 0.3% versus 0.2%, and Scottish at 8.2% versus 8.3%.

Toormina hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Toormina's median age is 45 years, which is slightly higher than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 years, and considerably older than the national norm of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, Toormina has a notably over-represented cohort of individuals aged 75-84 (10.8% locally), while those aged 55-64 are under-represented (10.9%). Between 2021 and present day, the percentage of individuals aged 75 to 84 has grown from 9.6% to 10.8%, while the percentage of individuals aged 55 to 64 has declined from 12.6% to 10.9%. Additionally, the percentage of individuals aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 11.3% to 10.1%. Demographic modeling suggests that Toormina's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The cohort of individuals aged 85 and above is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 232 people (70%) from 333 to 566. Notably, the combined cohort of individuals aged 65 and above will account for 73% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, population declines are projected for the cohorts aged 5-14 and 65-74.