Macksville - Scotts Head
Statistical Area - sa2

Macksville - Scotts Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Macksville - Scotts Head's population is around 5,402 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 213 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,189 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,368 in June 2024 and an additional 142 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 64 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Macksville - Scotts Head has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.0%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 89.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally is expected, with the area expected to increase by 469 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 8.0% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Macksville - Scotts Head recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Macksville - Scotts Head has granted approximately 50 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 250 homes were approved, with a further 8 approved in FY26 so far. The average increase in residents per year per dwelling constructed over these years was 0.9.

This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of new properties is $322,000. In FY26, there have been $79.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the rest of NSW, Macksville - Scotts Head records 71% more building activity per person. New building activity consists of 73% detached houses and 27% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers.

This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 90% houses. With around 198 people per dwelling approval, Macksville - Scotts Head shows characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that Macksville - Scotts Head will gain 433 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Macksville - Scotts Head has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 17thth percentile nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in the area, as no projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact it. Key initiatives include Valla Urban Growth Area (VUGA), TAFE NSW Nambucca Heads Connected Learning Centre, Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane, and Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy.

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Employment performance in Macksville - Scotts Head has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Macksville - Scotts Head has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, unemployment rate is 4.6%, and employment growth over the past year is estimated at 1.8%.

As of June 2025, there are 2,114 residents in work, unemployment rate is 4.7% (1.0% above Rest of NSW's rate), workforce participation is 44.0%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, retail trade. Health care & social assistance has notable concentration at 1.3 times the regional average. Mining is under-represented with only 0.6% compared to Rest of NSW's 2.5%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over June 2024 to June 2025, employment increased by 1.8%, labour force by 0.8%, reducing unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW had employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a rise in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Macksville - Scotts Head's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.7%% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Macksville - Scotts Head had a median income among taxpayers of $38,499 and an average of $47,794. This is below the national average. The Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Macksville - Scotts Head would be approximately $43,354 (median) and $53,821 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Macksville - Scotts Head fall between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. The $400 - $799 earnings band captures 29.7% of the community (1,604 individuals), unlike surrounding regions where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Macksville - Scotts Head, with only 83.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Macksville - Scotts Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Macksville - Scotts Head, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Macksville - Scotts Head stood at 49.8%, with the rest being mortgaged (26.9%) or rented (23.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,382, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent figure was $330, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Macksville - Scotts Head's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,382 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Macksville - Scotts Head has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 67.5% of all households, consisting of 22.0% couples with children, 31.0% couples without children, and 13.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.5%, with lone person households at 29.7% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Macksville - Scotts Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (31.3%).

Educational participation is high, with 25.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.9% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education. The Macksville - Scotts Head area has five schools with a combined enrolment of 1,046 students, indicating typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 967) and balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups, plus a specialist school for specific learning needs. School capacity exceeds residential needs at 19.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.1, suggesting the area serves as an educational hub for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 46 active stops operating between Macksville and Scotts Head, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 52 individual routes, collectively providing 676 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 283 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 96 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Macksville - Scotts Head is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Macksville-Scotts Head faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The private health cover rate stands at approximately 46%, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent, impacting 11.4% and 9.1% of residents respectively. However, 58.9% report no medical ailments, similar to the Rest of NSW at 58.0%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 29.1% (1,571 people), compared to 28.1% in the Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but better than those for the general population.

Macksville - Scotts Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Macksville-Scotts Head, as per the 2016 census, had a cultural diversity below average. Its population was predominantly Australian-born citizens with English spoken exclusively at home: 91.4%, 90.7%, and 95.9% respectively. Christianity was the primary religion, comprising 55.7%.

Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3% compared to 0.1% in Rest of NSW. Ancestry-wise, Australian (32.6%), English (32.6%), and Irish (8.7%) were the top groups. Notably, Australian Aboriginal (5.8%), Scottish (7.7%), and Samoan (0.1%) showed differences from regional averages.

Macksville - Scotts Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Macksville - Scotts Head's median age is 49, which exceeds Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and is higher than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented at 15.7% locally, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 8.1%. The 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between 2021 and the present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 9.5% to 12.2% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 16.1% to 14.5%, and the 25 to 34 age group has dropped from 9.3% to 8.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Macksville - Scotts Head's age structure. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 167 people (31%) from 540 to 708. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 cohorts.