Macksville - Scotts Head

Macksville - Scotts Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

According to investigations by AreaSearch, the resident count for Macksville - Scotts Head stands at approximately 5,387 as of May 2026. This represents a gain of 198 people (3.8%) relative to the 5,189 residents recorded during the 2021 Census. This adjustment is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 5,383 alongside 166 validated new addresses registered after the Census. Consequently, the local population density reaches 64 persons per square kilometer, indicating low-density living conditions. Over the prior ten years, Macksville - Scotts Head has displayed steady growth dynamics with a 1.0% compound annual growth rate, exceeding the broader SA3 region. This expansion was largely underpinned by arrivals from other states, which accounted for roughly 78.1% of the total demographic growth in recent times.

For each SA2 locality, AreaSearch incorporates projections from Geoscience Australia and the ABS published in 2024, utilising 2022 as the base year. In instances where these series do not cover a specific SA2, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 (with a 2021 baseline) are substituted. Cohort-specific growth rates derived from these datasets are projected forward for all districts spanning 2032 to 2041. Based on these anticipated shifts, the locality is projected to experience a population gain slightly below the median for regional Australia, expanding by 354 persons by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP data, which translates to a total increase of 6.5% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Macksville - Scotts Head recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Building approvals in Macksville - Scotts Head have run at an annual average of about 50 residential units, yielding 250 approved dwellings over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, plus 15 additional approvals during FY-26 so far. Because the influx of new residents averaged only 0.8 individuals for every new dwelling constructed over the 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, local supply is keeping pace with or running ahead of demand, yielding substantial choices for purchasers and allowing for population growth beyond predicted levels. Concurrently, the average building cost of these new residences sits at $322,000. Furthermore, commercial approvals totaling $79.1 million have been registered this financial year, demonstrating solid progress in commercial building sector activity.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, building activity on a per-capita basis in Macksville - Scotts Head is 71.0% higher, offering more options for prospective buyers despite a deceleration in recent construction volumes. Of the structures built recently, 73.0% were detached houses and 27.0% were townhouses or multi-unit buildings, preserving the traditional low-density character of the area with a focus on spacious family housing. This represents a clear shift from the current housing stock, which is 90.0% houses, reflecting a scarcity of vacant land and adapting to shifting lifestyle choices and budget constraints. The area registers approximately 198 people per dwelling approval, showing a low density pattern.

Long-term forecasts suggest Macksville - Scotts Head will add 350 residents by 2041, starting from the most recent AreaSearch quarterly baseline. With current construction rates, new housing supply is expected to easily accommodate demand, supporting favorable buyer conditions and potentially enabling expansion above current population models.

Macksville - Scotts Head has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and development initiatives are key drivers of regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 0 major projects with the potential to affect this area. The most relevant initiatives include the Valla Urban Growth Area, the TAFE NSW Nambucca Heads Connected Learning Centre, the Pacific Highway Upgrade between Hexham and Brisbane, and the Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy.

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The labour market performance in Macksville - Scotts Head lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

The local workforce shows a diverse split between professional and manual occupations, with a solid footprint in essential public services and an unemployment rate of 5.3%. As of March 2026, employed residents numbered 2,018, with the jobless rate standing 1.2% higher than the Regional NSW benchmark of 4.1%, while labor force participation is notably lower at 48.0% compared to 60.6% in Regional NSW. Census returns indicate that only 10.9% of the working population operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by past pandemic containment measures.

Local workers are predominantly engaged in health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The concentration of jobs in health care & social assistance is particularly high, reaching 1.3 times the Regional NSW average. Conversely, mining is underrepresented, employing just 0.6% of the Macksville - Scotts Head workforce compared to 2.5% across Regional NSW. Although there are jobs available within the community, census figures comparing the local working population to residents suggest that many individuals commute outside the area for employment.

According to AreaSearch evaluations of SALM and ABS statistics, during the 12 months ending March 2026, the local labor force contracted by 3.4% and the number of employed individuals fell by 3.9%, which elevated the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW experienced a 0.9% drop in employment and a 0.4% contraction in the labor force, resulting in a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment forecasts released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 provide a baseline for estimating future local workforce demand in Macksville - Scotts Head. These five-year and ten-year projections have been applied to local employment sectors to model future growth. While national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary by industry. Weighting these projections against the employment profile of Macksville - Scotts Head yields a projected local employment increase of 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, representing a simple proportional mapping that does not adjust for specific regional population trends.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Based on the latest postcode-level ATO statistics released for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Macksville - Scotts Head SA2 recorded a median income of $41,598 and an average income of $50,470. These levels fall below national benchmarks and compare to a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Adjusting for a 10.32% rise in the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year yields estimated values of approximately $45,891 for the median and $55,679 for the average as of March 2026. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in Macksville - Scotts Head placed between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationwide. In terms of earnings distribution, the $400 - 799 weekly income bracket contains 29.7% of the local population (1,599 individuals), whereas the wider regional trend shows 29.9% of people in the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Financial stress from housing costs is substantial, leaving residents with only 83.7% of their income after housing expenses, placing the area in the 5th percentile.

Macksville - Scotts Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The local housing stock at the time of the latest Census consisted of 90.1% standalone houses and 9.9% alternative dwellings, such as semi-detached homes and apartments, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings in Regional NSW. Home ownership was high in Macksville - Scotts Head at 49.8%, with the remaining dwellings occupied by mortgage holders (26.9%) or tenants (23.4%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,382 was well below the Regional NSW average, while the median weekly rent stood at $330, compared to Regional NSW averages of $1,733 and $330 respectively. On a national level, monthly mortgage payments in Macksville - Scotts Head are much lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are also well below the national median of $375.

Macksville - Scotts Head has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up 67.5% of local households, consisting of couples with children at 22.0%, couples without children at 31.0%, and single-parent households at 13.3%. Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 32.5% of homes, with single-person households representing 29.7% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size of 2.3 people is slightly smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Macksville - Scotts Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

Educational attainment in the area lags behind, with the university qualification rate of 15.8% sitting well below the state average of 32.2%. This difference highlights a key area for targeted educational strategies. Bachelor degrees represent the largest share of higher education at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 2.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.7%. Vocational qualifications are common, with 41.2% of residents aged 15 and over holding technical credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (31.3%).

Student numbers are high in the community, with 25.7% of residents enrolled in an educational program. This group is comprised of 9.9% in primary school, 7.7% in secondary school, and 2.1% in tertiary studies.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in Macksville - Scotts Head include 56 active train and bus stops. These locations are serviced by 50 routes that provide a combined 644 passenger trips per week. Transport accessibility is good, with residents living an average of 282 meters from the nearest stop. The area is primarily residential, and most workers commute out of the district. Private vehicles are the dominant mode of transport for 91% of commuters, while 6% walk to work. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.3 cars, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 10.9% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, a figure that may reflect pandemic conditions.

Public transport routes average 92 trips per day, which translates to approximately 11 weekly departures for each individual stop.

Health performance in Macksville - Scotts Head is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Public health metrics indicate significant challenges for Macksville - Scotts Head, as shown by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality patterns and chronic disease rates, which are elevated among both younger and older residents. The proportion of the population with private health insurance is low at approximately 46% (~2,472 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical diagnoses locally, affecting 11.4% and 9.1% of residents, respectively. A total of 58.9% of the population reported no chronic conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The local working-age demographic experiences high rates of long-term illness. Furthermore, 29.4% of the population is aged 65 and over (1,585 people), which exceeds the Regional NSW level of 23.4%. Seniors in the area experience health challenges that rank higher relative to national levels than the general population.

Macksville - Scotts Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity in Macksville - Scotts Head is lower than average, with citizens making up 91.4% of the population, 90.7% of residents born in Australia, and 95.9% of households speaking only English. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 55.7% of residents. The most pronounced religious overrepresentation is Judaism, which accounts for 0.3% of the local population compared to 0.1% in Regional NSW.

In terms of parent country of birth, the largest ancestry groups in the area are Australian (32.6%), English (32.6%), and Irish (8.7%). Notable variations in ethnic representation include Australian Aboriginal residents at 5.8% of the population (compared to 4.6% regionally), Scottish ancestry at 7.7% (compared to 8.0% regionally), and Samoan ancestry at 0.1% (compared to 0.1% regionally).

Macksville - Scotts Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Macksville - Scotts Head is 50, which is higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 age group is highly represented at 16.0% of the population, compared to 9.4% nationally, while the 25 - 34 age bracket is smaller at 7.8%. Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort has increased from 9.5% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 group declined from 16.1% to 14.0%, and the 25 to 34 group fell from 9.3% to 7.8%. Long-term population models indicate the local age profile will shift by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow by 157 people (28%) from 563 to 721, while the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 groups are projected to contract.