Macksville - Scotts Head

Macksville - Scotts Head has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Macksville - Scotts Head's population is around 5,464 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 275 people (5.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,189 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 5,366 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 161 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 65 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Macksville - Scotts Head's 5.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.2%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 89.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a population increase just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally is expected, with the area expected to expand by 469 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 6.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Macksville - Scotts Head recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Macksville - Scotts Head has averaged around 50 new dwelling approvals annually, with 250 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 11 so far in FY-26. At an average of just 0.9 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new homes are being built at an average value of $322,000. There have also been $79.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Relative to the Rest of NSW, Macksville - Scotts Head shows 71.0% higher building activity (per person), creating greater choice for buyers, though building activity has slowed in recent years. Recent construction comprises 73.0% detached dwellings and 27.0% detachment townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 90.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 198 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Future projections show Macksville - Scotts Head adding 371 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Macksville - Scotts Head has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 0 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Valla Urban Growth Area (VUGA), TAFE NSW Nambucca Heads Connected Learning Centre, Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane, and Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Macksville - Scotts Head shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Macksville - Scotts Head possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 4.7%. As of December 2025, 2,072 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.8% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (49.2% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 10.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in health care & social assistance, with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, mining is under-represented, with only 0.6% of Macksville - Scotts Head's workforce compared to 2.5% in Regional NSW. While local employment opportunities exist, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.3% while employment declined by 1.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Macksville - Scotts Head. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Macksville - Scotts Head's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Macksville - Scotts Head SA2's median income among taxpayers is $41,598, with an average of $50,470. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $45,284 (median) and $54,942 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Macksville - Scotts Head all fall between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 29.7% of the community (1,622 individuals), unlike trends in the surrounding region where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 5th percentile.

Macksville - Scotts Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Macksville - Scotts Head, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Macksville - Scotts Head was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 49.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (26.9%) or rented (23.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,382, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $330, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Macksville - Scotts Head's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Macksville - Scotts Head has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 67.5% of all households, comprising 22.0% couples with children, 31.0% couples without children, and 13.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.5%, with lone person households at 29.7% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Macksville - Scotts Head faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (15.8%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.9%) and certificates (31.3%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 56 active transport stops operating within Macksville - Scotts Head, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 50 individual routes, collectively providing 644 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 282 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A relatively low 10.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 92 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Macksville - Scotts Head is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Macksville - Scotts Head, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,507 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.4 and 9.1% of residents, respectively, while 58.9% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 29.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,583 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

Macksville - Scotts Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Macksville - Scotts Head was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 91.4% of its population being citizens, 90.7% born in Australia, and 95.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Macksville - Scotts Head is Christianity, which makes up 55.7% of the population. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Judaism, which comprises 0.3% of the population, compared to 0.1% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Macksville - Scotts Head are Australian, comprising 32.6% of the population, English, comprising 32.6% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 5.8% of Macksville - Scotts Head (vs 4.6% regionally), Scottish at 7.7% (vs 8.0%) and Samoan at 0.1% (vs 0.1%).

Macksville - Scotts Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 49, Macksville - Scotts Head is notably exceeding the Regional NSW figure of 43 and is well above Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (15.7% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (8.0%). This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. In the period since 2021, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 9.5% to 12.6% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 16.1% to 14.0% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 9.3% to 8.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Macksville - Scotts Head's age structure. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to experience strong growth, expanding by 155 people (28%) from 552 to 708. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 cohorts.