West Kempsey

An assessment of population growth drivers in West Kempsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the suburb of West Kempsey had an estimated population of around 5,382 as of Feb 2026. This reflected a growth of 309 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,073. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 5,249 residents in June 2024 and 11 new addresses validated since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 811 persons per square kilometer. West Kempsey's growth of 6.1% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth of 5.2%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. These projections indicate an above median population growth nationally for regional areas. The suburb is projected to increase by 915 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.4% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in West Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows West Kempsey averaged approximately 12 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 62 homes. As of FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. On average, 3.1 new residents arrive per year per dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25.

Supply is substantially lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average value of $403,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating emphasis on quality construction. This financial year, $2.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, West Kempsey shows substantially reduced construction, 57.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings.

It is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New development consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 523 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show West Kempsey adding 775 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

West Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Twelve infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, and Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in West Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

West Kempsey has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 12.5% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation (September 2025). There are 1,666 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 8.6% higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 46.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%.

Census data shows only 3.3% of residents work from home (considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts). Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food, with healthcare notably concentrated at 1.6 times the regional average. However, construction is under-represented at 5.9%, compared to Rest of NSW's 9.7%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by Census working population vs resident population count.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, West Kempsey's labour force decreased by 1.0% and employment declined by 3.6%, raising unemployment by 2.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts (May-25) project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections vary significantly. Applying these to West Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of West Kempsey had a lower than average income level nationally in financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. Its median income among taxpayers was $38,295 and the average income stood at $43,834, compared to Rest of NSW's figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $41,688 (median) and $47,718 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in West Kempsey all fall between the 1st and 3rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution indicates that the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 33.8% of the community (1,819 individuals), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Lower income households are prevalent, with 43.4% earning below $800 weekly, suggesting affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile.

West Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In West Kempsey, as per the latest Census evaluation, 88.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 11.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in West Kempsey stood at 34.2%, with mortgaged properties at 25.3% and rented ones at 40.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,170, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in West Kempsey was $290, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, West Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

West Kempsey features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households compose 63.4% of all households, including 17.2% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 22.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.6%, with lone person households at 34.0% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

West Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.6%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.1%) and certificates (33.0%). Educational participation is high at 32.0%, comprising 12.8% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.8% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 84 active public transport stops in West Kempsey, operating a mix of bus services. These stops are serviced by 57 individual routes, collectively facilitating 511 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuters travel outward; car remains the dominant mode at 93%, with 4% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 3.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 73 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in West Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

West Kempsey faces significant health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 44% (~2,387 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, impacting 12.5% and 11.0% of residents respectively. However, 54.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, lower than the 63.3% in Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 22.0% of residents aged 65 and over (1,184 people), which is slightly lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but are broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees West Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

West Kempsey had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 88.1% citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 57.6%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.1%), English (30.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.9%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%.

Notably, Maori (0.4% vs 0.3%), Filipino (0.9% vs 0.6%), and Maltese (0.3% vs 0.4%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

West Kempsey's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in West Kempsey is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, West Kempsey has a higher proportion of residents aged 0-4 (7.9%) but fewer individuals aged 55-64 (10.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 9.9% to 11.6%, while the 0-4 cohort increased from 6.5% to 7.9%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group declined from 11.6% to 10.2%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 11.6% to 10.5%. Looking forward to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in West Kempsey's age structure. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 27%, reaching 662 people from the current figure of 522. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.