West Kempsey

An assessment of population growth drivers in West Kempsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census West Kempsey's population is estimated at around 5,382 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 309 people (6.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,073 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,249 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. West Kempsey's population equates to a density ratio of 811 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb of West Kempsey's 6.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.2%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the suburb of West Kempsey expected to increase by 912 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 14.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in West Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows West Kempsey has had around 12 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years to FY-26, totalling an estimated 61 homes. As of FY-26, three approvals have been recorded. On average, three people per year moved to the area for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating solid demand supporting property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $403,000, somewhat higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development.

This financial year has seen $2.6 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, West Kempsey has significantly less development activity, 58.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This activity is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of 551 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show West Kempsey adding 779 residents by 2041, as per the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

West Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Twelve projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, and Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in West Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

West Kempsey has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue-collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 12.2%.

This is calculated based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. There are 1,643 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 8.2% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in West Kempsey is significantly lower at 45.3%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, only 3.3% of residents work from home.

However, the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns on this figure should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. West Kempsey has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.6 times higher than the regional level. In contrast, construction employs only 5.9% of local workers, which is lower than Regional NSW's 9.7%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.6% alongside a 4.7% decline in employment, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.0 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within West Kempsey. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to West Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.4% over ten years. It is important to note that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that West Kempsey has lower incomes compared to national averages. The median income in West Kempsey is $38,295, with an average of $43,834. In contrast, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since June 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $41,688 (median) and $47,718 (average). The 2021 Census shows household, family, and personal incomes in West Kempsey falling between the 1st and 3rd percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals 33.8% of residents earning between $400 and $799 weekly, differing from broader area trends where earnings of $1,500 to $2,999 are prevalent at 29.9%. The prevalence of lower-income residents (43.4% earning under $800/week) suggests constrained household budgets across much of West Kempsey. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.9% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

West Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in West Kempsey, as recorded at the latest Census, consisted of 88.4% houses and 11.6% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This differed from Regional NSW's dwelling structure which was 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in West Kempsey stood at 34.2%, with the remaining dwellings being mortgaged (25.3%) or rented (40.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in West Kempsey was $1,170, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in West Kempsey was recorded at $290, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, West Kempsey's median monthly mortgage repayment was significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while its median weekly rent figure was substantially below the national average of $375.

West Kempsey features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.4% of all households, including 17.2% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 22.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.6%, with lone person households at 34.0% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

West Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.6%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (7.1%), followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.1%) and certificates (33.0%). Educational participation is high, with 32.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 12.8% in primary, 9.9% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.8% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 84 active transport stops operating within West Kempsey. These are served by a mix of buses along 57 individual routes, providing a total of 511 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop. As primarily residential, most commute outward. Car remains dominant at 93%, with 4% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below regional average.

Only 3.3% work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages 73 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in West Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

West Kempsey faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 44% of the total population (~2,387 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.5% and 11.0% of residents respectively. However, 54.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 22.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,189 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but generally align with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees West Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

West Kempsey's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.1% of its population being citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in West Kempsey, comprising 57.6% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.1%), English (30.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.9%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%.

Some ethnic groups show notable differences: Maori at 0.4% in West Kempsey compared to 0.3% regionally, Filipino at 0.9% versus 0.6%, and Maltese at 0.3% against 0.4%.

West Kempsey's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in West Kempsey is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 years but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, West Kempsey has a higher proportion of residents aged 0-4 (8.0%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (10.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 9.9% to 11.7%, while the 0-4 cohort increased from 6.5% to 8.0%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group declined from 11.6% to 10.3%, and the 65-74 age group dropped from 11.6% to 10.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in West Kempsey's age structure. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 28%, reaching 667 people from 522. Conversely, the 15-24 and 65-74 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.