West Kempsey

An assessment of population growth drivers in West Kempsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the West Kempsey statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 5,383, reflecting a growth of 310 people (6.1%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,073. This estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 5,249 with an additional 12 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is approximately 811 persons per square kilometer, in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. West Kempsey's growth rate since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (5.0%) and the non-metro area, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the West Kempsey (SA2) is expected to increase by 911 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 14.4% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in West Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows West Kempsey averaged around 12 new dwelling approvals per year. From FY-21 to FY-25, an estimated 62 homes were approved, with a further 2 in FY-26. Each dwelling built attracted an average of 3.1 people over these years.

Supply lagged demand significantly, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties were constructed at an average value of $403,000, moderately above regional levels. This year, $2.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, West Kempsey had 57.0% less development activity per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

Nationally, it reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity consisted of 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count was 523 people per dwelling approval. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate indicates West Kempsey will gain 774 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

West Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 12 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, and Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in West Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

West Kempsey has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 is 12.5%.

This rate is higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in West Kempsey is significantly lower at 40.2% compared to the Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. Health care & social assistance has a notably high concentration with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

However, construction has limited presence with 5.9% employment compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the difference between the Census working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.0% while employment declined by 3.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 2.4 percentage points. In comparison, the Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to West Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of West Kempsey's median income among taxpayers was $38,295 and average income stood at $43,834 in financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares to Rest of NSW's figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, current estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% would be approximately $41,688 (median) and $47,718 (average). From the Census conducted in 2021, household, family, and personal incomes in West Kempsey all fell between the 1st and 3rd percentiles nationally. Income analysis showed that 33.8% of the population, equating to 1,819 individuals, had incomes within the $400-$799 range, unlike regional patterns where the $1,500-$2,999 range dominated with 29.9%. With 43.4% earning under $800 per week, West Kempsey faces significant income constraints impacting local spending habits. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

West Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in West Kempsey, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.4% houses and 11.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is similar to Non-Metro NSW's structure of 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in West Kempsey was at 34.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.3% and rented dwellings at 40.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,170, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $290, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, West Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

West Kempsey features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 63.4% of all households, including 17.2% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 22.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.6%, with lone person households at 34.0% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

West Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.6%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (7.1%) and certificates (33.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.8% in primary, 9.9% in secondary, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in West Kempsey shows 71 active transport stops currently operating. These are served by a mix of buses along 57 individual routes, collectively providing 511 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 73 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in West Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

West Kempsey faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 44% (~2388 people) have private health cover, compared to 46.5% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues impact 12.5% and arthritis affects 11.0% of residents.

54.5% report no medical ailments, compared to 58.0% in Rest of NSW. As of 2021, 22.2% (1195 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes align with general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees West Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

West Kempsey had lower cultural diversity, with 88.1% citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 57.6%, compared to 54.2% regionally. Top three ancestries were Australian (31.1%), English (30.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.9%), higher than regional averages of 8.5%.

Maori (0.4%) and Filipino (0.9%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional figures of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, while Maltese (0.3%) was slightly below the regional average of 0.4%.

West Kempsey's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in West Kempsey is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, West Kempsey has a higher percentage of residents aged 0-4 (7.7%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (10.3%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 9.9% to 11.2%, while the 0-4 cohort increased from 6.5% to 7.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group decreased from 11.6% to 10.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in West Kempsey's age structure. The 35-44 age group is expected to grow by 23%, reaching 741 people from the current 602. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups are projected to experience population declines.