West Kempsey

An assessment of population growth drivers in West Kempsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

West Kempsey's population was estimated at around 5,187 as of Nov 2025, reflecting an increase of 114 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,073. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 5,139 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 12 new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is around 782 persons per square kilometer. West Kempsey's 2.2% growth positions it competitively with other SA3 areas, demonstrating strong fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% to overall population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Future population dynamics project an above median growth for non-metropolitan areas nationally, with West Kempsey expected to increase by 904 persons to 2041, reflecting an 18.6% total increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in West Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates West Kempsey averaged approximately 12 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 62 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved in FY-26. This averages to about 3.1 people moving to the area for each dwelling built over those years.

Supply is lagging demand significantly, suggesting heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $403,000, consistent with regional patterns. In FY-26, $2.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, West Kempsey has significantly less development activity, 57.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties.

New building activity shows 82.0% detached houses and 18.0% attached dwellings, preserving the area's low density nature. The estimated count of 551 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate West Kempsey will gain around 963 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

West Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones are West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, and Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in West Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

West Kempsey has a balanced mix of white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. Its unemployment rate is 12.1% as of June 2025, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

There are 1,656 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 8.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in West Kempsey lags at 40.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. Health care & social assistance is particularly notable with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average.

Construction has a limited presence at 5.9% compared to the regional average of 9.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8%, while employment declined by 1.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to West Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

West Kempsey's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $38,295. The average income stood at $43,834 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $43,124 (median) and $49,361 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in West Kempsey all fall between the 1st and 3rd percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 33.8% of the population (1,753 individuals) fall within the $400 - 799 income range, differing from patterns across the region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 29.9%. With 43.4% earning under $800 per week, West Kempsey faces considerable income constraints affecting local spending patterns. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

West Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In West Kempsey, as per the latest Census evaluation, 88.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 11.6% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This is similar to Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure, which was 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in West Kempsey stood at 34.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.3% and rented ones at 40.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,170, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent figure in West Kempsey was $290, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, West Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,170 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

West Kempsey features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 63.4% of all households, including 17.2% that are couples with children, 21.0% that are couples without children, and 22.9% that consist of single parents. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.6%, with lone person households at 34.0% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is in line with the average for the Rest of NSW.

West Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 9.6%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 7.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (7.1%) and certificates (33.0%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.8% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education. West Kempsey's 4 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,965 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates varied educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 907. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between 2 primary and 2 secondary institutions. As of recent statistics, the area functions as an education hub with 37.9 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 13.1 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 74 active public transport stops in West Kempsey. These are mixed bus services operating through 65 routes, offering a total of 541 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents usually within 160 meters of the nearest stop.

Services average 77 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in West Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across West Kempsey, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 44% of the total population (~2,301 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues are the most common medical condition in the area, impacting 12.5% of residents, followed by arthritis which affects 11.0%. However, 54.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 58.0% across Rest of NSW. The area has 22.2% of residents aged 65 and over (1,151 people), which is lower than the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees West Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

West Kempsey had a lower level of cultural diversity, with 88.1% of its population being citizens, 93.6% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in West Kempsey, comprising 57.6% of people, compared to 54.2% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.1%), English (30.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (14.9%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 7.5%.

Notably, Maori (0.4%) and Filipino (0.9%) populations were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. Additionally, Maltese population was slightly underrepresented at 0.3% compared to the regional average of 0.4%.

West Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in West Kempsey is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, West Kempsey has a higher percentage of residents aged 0-4 (7.7%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (10.2%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 9.9% to 11.3%, while the 0-4 cohort increased from 6.5% to 7.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group decreased from 11.6% to 10.2%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in West Kempsey's age structure. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 26%, reaching 741 people from the current 586. Meanwhile, the 65-74 cohort is projected to decline by 11 people.