West Kempsey

An assessment of population growth drivers in West Kempsey reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the estimated population of the suburb of West Kempsey as of May 2026 is around 5,160. This figure reflects an increase of 87 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,073. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 5,159 in June 2025 and an additional 12 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 778 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. West Kempsey's growth rate of 1.7% since census positions it within 2.6 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.3%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where data is not available, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the suburb is expected to experience above median population growth for Australian non-metropolitan areas, with an increase of 756 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 14.6% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in West Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, West Kempsey recorded approximately 12 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 61 homes were approved, with a further six approved in FY-26 to date. On average, about 2.5 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $403,000, which is moderately above regional levels and suggests an emphasis on quality construction. In FY-26, there have been $2.6 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development in the area. Compared to the Rest of NSW, West Kempsey shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 57.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing properties. The area's development level is also below national averages, reflecting its maturity and possible planning constraints.

New development consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% attached dwellings, maintaining West Kempsey's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval in the area is 551 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, West Kempsey is projected to add 755 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

West Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 12 projects that are likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, and Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in West Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

West Kempsey has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 12.3%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In December 2025, 1,597 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 8.4% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in West Kempsey lags at 44.6%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census responses show that only 3.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. West Kempsey has a particular specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction has limited presence with 5.9% employment compared to 9.7% regionally. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 3.2%, alongside a 5.4% employment decline, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 2.0 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, labour force decline of 0.8%, and unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to West Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 2023 for financial year 2023, West Kempsey had a median taxpayer income of $38,295 and an average level of $43,834. This is lower than the national average of $52,390 and regional NSW's average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2023 to March 2026, estimated median income in West Kempsey would be approximately $42,247 and average income $48,358 by that date. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in West Kempsey fall between the 1st and 3rd percentiles nationally. The predominant income bracket is $400-$799, with 33.8% of locals earning within this range, unlike regional NSW where 29.9% earn between $1,500-$2,999. A significant portion, 43.4%, earns below $800 weekly. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.9% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

West Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

West Kempsey's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.4% houses and 11.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in West Kempsey stood at 34.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.3% and rented ones at 40.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,170, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in West Kempsey was $290, lower than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, West Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,170 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

West Kempsey features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.4% of all households, including 17.2% couples with children, 21.0% couples without children, and 22.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.6%, with lone person households at 34.0% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

West Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.1%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.1%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.1%) and certificates (33.0%). Educational participation is high at 32.0%, comprising 12.8% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.8% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 1.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 84 active transport stops operating within West Kempsey, consisting of buses. These stops are served by 57 individual routes, collectively providing 511 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode at 93%, with 4% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 3.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 73 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in West Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

West Kempsey faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 44% of the total population (around 2,289 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 12.5% and 11.0% of residents respectively. However, 54.5% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. West Kempsey has 22.6% of its population aged 65 and over (1,166 people). While health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings, they present some challenges.

The latest Census data sees West Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

West Kempsey, when assessed for cultural diversity in 2016, showed a majority population with 88.1% being Australian citizens, born in Australia (93.6%), and speaking English at home (96.6%). Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 57.6%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's average of 55.9%. Ancestry-wise, Australians made up 31.1% of West Kempsey's population, followed by those of English descent at 30.2%, and Australian Aboriginal at 14.9%, significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%.

Other ethnic groups with notable differences include Maori (0.4% vs 0.3%), Filipino (0.9% vs 0.6%), and Maltese (0.3% vs 0.4%).

West Kempsey's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in West Kempsey is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 years but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, West Kempsey has a higher percentage of residents aged 0-4 (7.8%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (10.4%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 9.9% to 11.7%, while the 0-4 cohort increased from 6.5% to 7.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group declined from 11.6% to 10.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in West Kempsey's age structure. The 45-54 age group is expected to grow by 27%, reaching 636 people from 500. Conversely, the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups are projected to experience population declines.