South Kempsey

Population growth drivers in South Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of South Kempsey is around 2,727, reflecting a 4.7% increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,604 people. This inference is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024, which estimated the resident population at 2,666. The suburb has seen resilient growth over the past decade, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.0%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% to recent population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for SA2 areas released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, South Kempsey is expected to have an above median population growth by 2041, with an increase of 438 persons, reflecting a total increase of 13.8% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates South Kempsey recorded approximately six residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 34 homes. No approvals have been recorded so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling built gained around 2.9 new residents annually between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting healthy demand that supports property values. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $403,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

This financial year, $871,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, South Kempsey records significantly lower building activity, 54.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, which is also below national average due to the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining South Kempsey's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 384 people, reflecting its quiet development environment.

Population forecasts indicate South Kempsey will gain approximately 377 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

South Kempsey has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly, with local infrastructure changes being influential. Notable projects include Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in South Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

South Kempsey has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 9.3%, as per AreaSearch's aggregated statistical area data. As of December 2025, there are 1,047 residents employed while the unemployment rate stands at 5.3%, which is above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in South Kempsey is lower at 54.8% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, only 7.9% of residents work from home. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 2.4% compared to Regional NSW's average of 5.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 0.9%, while employment decreased by 2.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.5 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW saw an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decrease of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, South Kempsey had a median taxpayer income of $40,936 and an average level of $46,857. These figures are below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 in Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $44,563 (median) and $51,009 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, South Kempsey's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 31.8% of South Kempsey's population falls within the $800 - $1,499 income range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in South Kempsey, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

South Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in South Kempsey, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 91.4% houses and 8.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Kempsey was at 35.6%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (30.3%) or rented (34.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of the latest data available, was $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $270, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330 respectively. Nationally, South Kempsey's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, as per data from 2021, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375 for the same period.

South Kempsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.4% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 18.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 5.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

South Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (0.7%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 33.4%. Educational participation is high, with 34.5% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 15.1% in primary, 10.3% in secondary, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Kempsey has 52 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 42 different routes that together facilitate 309 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is considered excellent, with residents typically situated just 181 meters from their nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most South Kempsey residents commute outward to other locations for work or leisure. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 94% of residents. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census, only 7.9% of South Kempsey residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 44 trips per day, which equates to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Kempsey faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across various health conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% of the total population (~1,242 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.9% and 10.3% of residents respectively. However, 56.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 17.5% of residents aged 65 and over (477 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees South Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Kempsey had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 87.4% of its population being Australian citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 52.4% of South Kempsey's population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.0%), English (29.0%), and Australian Aboriginal (15.0%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%.

Some ethnic groups showed notable differences in representation: Samoan at 0.1% (vs 0.1% regionally), New Zealand at 0.6% (vs 0.4%), and Lebanese at 0.2% (vs 0.2%).

South Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

South Kempsey's median age is 41 years, which is lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38. The 5-14 age group constitutes 14.7% of South Kempsey's population, compared to Regional NSW, while the 85+ cohort makes up 0.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has increased from 10.7% to 12.2%, and the 0-4 cohort has risen from 5.6% to 6.8%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has decreased from 1.4% to 0.4%. By 2041, South Kempsey's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 45-54 cohort is expected to grow by 26%, adding 89 residents to reach 430. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts.