South Kempsey

Population growth drivers in South Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, South Kempsey's population is estimated at around 2,719 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 115 people (4.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,604 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,718 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 42 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person for South Kempsey. The suburb's 4.4% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 4.3%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for national non-metropolitan areas, with South Kempsey expected to expand by 377 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 13.8% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees South Kempsey recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows South Kempsey had approximately 6 dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling around 34 homes. So far in FY-2026, 2 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of 4 people moving to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-2021 and FY-2025. Demand significantly outpaces supply, which typically increases competition among buyers and puts upward pressure on prices.

New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $403,000, higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. In FY-2026, $871,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, South Kempsey has 54.0% lower building activity per person. This scarcity of new dwellings strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, building activity is also lower, suggesting possible development constraints.

New building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character focused on family homes. The estimated population per dwelling approval in South Kempsey is 381 people. Future projections estimate an addition of 376 residents by 2041, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and price increases if current development rates do not match population growth.

South Kempsey has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Ten projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. These include Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in South Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

South Kempsey's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 9.3% as of an unspecified date. By December 2025, the employment figure stood at 1,061 residents, with an unemployment rate of 5.4%, higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in South Kempsey was 54.3%, lower than Regional NSW's 60.5%. Only 7.9% of residents worked from home, according to Census responses. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food. The area showed strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 2.4% compared to Regional NSW's 5.1%. There was a ratio of 0.9 workers per resident as of the Census date, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Over the year ending December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.7%, and employment fell by 2.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within South Kempsey. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to South Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows South Kempsey had a median income among taxpayers of $40,936 and an average of $46,857. This is lower than the national average. Regional NSW's median was $52,390 with an average of $65,215. As of March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $45,161 (median) and $51,693 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in South Kempsey fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 31.8% of individuals earn $800 - $1,499. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 83.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile.

South Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in South Kempsey, as evaluated at the latest Census held in 2016, comprised 91.4% houses and 8.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Kempsey was 35.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 34.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area, as of 2018, was $1,300, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in South Kempsey was recorded at $270 in 2019, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, South Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863 as of 2018, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 in 2019.

South Kempsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.4% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 18.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households comprising 5.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

South Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (0.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (33.4%). Educational participation is high at 34.5%, comprising primary education (15.1%), secondary education (10.3%), and tertiary education (1.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

South Kempsey has 52 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 42 different routes that together facilitate 309 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 181 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents in this primarily residential area commute outward, with cars remaining the dominant mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 7.9% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 44 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Kempsey faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at 46% (~1238 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are most common, affecting 11.9% and 10.3% respectively. However, 56.7% report no medical ailments, lower than Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age residents face notable chronic condition challenges. The area has 17.8% of residents aged 65 and over (483 people), lower than Regional NSW's 23.4%. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees South Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Kempsey's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.4% of its population being Australian citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in South Kempsey, comprising 52.4% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (32.0%), English (29.0%), and Australian Aboriginal (15.0%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%.

Notably, Samoan representation is over twice the regional average at 0.1% in South Kempsey, while New Zealand representation is 0.6%, compared to the regional average of 0.4%. Lebanese representation is also slightly higher at 0.2%.

South Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

South Kempsey's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 are prominent at 14.6%, while the 85+ group is smaller at 0.4% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 10.7% to 12.3%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has declined from 1.4% to 0.4%. By 2041, South Kempsey's population is forecasted to change significantly demographically. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 25%, adding 84 residents to reach 422. Meanwhile, populations in the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts are projected to decline.