South Kempsey

Population growth drivers in South Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since Feb 2026, the suburb of South Kempsey's population is estimated at around 2,727. This reflects an increase of 123 people (4.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,604 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,666, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 19 validated new addresses since the Census date. South Kempsey's growth rate of 4.7% positions it within 0.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (5.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 444 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 15.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in South Kempsey shows around 6 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 32 homes. So far in FY-26, 0 approvals have been recorded. Each dwelling built accommodates approximately 3 new residents per year on average between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating healthy demand for housing. The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $403,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

In this financial year, $871,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, South Kempsey records markedly lower building activity, with 57.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining South Kempsey's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 414 people in the area.

Population forecasts indicate South Kempsey will gain 414 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

South Kempsey has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects that could impact the area. Notable ones are Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in South Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

South Kempsey has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 9.7% as per AreaSearch's statistical area aggregation. As of September 2025, there are 1,059 employed residents with an unemployment rate at 5.9%, higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 55.8% compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%.

Census data shows that only 7.9% work from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food, with notable concentration in the former (1.2 times regional average). Professional & technical services have lower representation at 2.4%, compared to the regional average of 5.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.7% while employment decreased by 1.6%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 2.0 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW had an employment decline of 0.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South Kempsey's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released in financial year 2023, South Kempsey had a median income among taxpayers of $40,936. The average income stood at $46,857. Both figures were below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for South Kempsey would be approximately $44,563 (median) and $51,009 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in South Kempsey fell between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution data showed that 31.8% of the population (867 individuals) had incomes within the $800 - 1,499 range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category was predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

South Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In South Kempsey, as per the latest Census evaluation, 91.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 8.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Kempsey stood at 35.6%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 30.3% and rented ones making up 34.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in South Kempsey was $270, compared to $330 in Non-Metro NSW. Nationally, South Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Kempsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.4% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 18.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households making up 5.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

South Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (0.7%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.0% and certificates at 33.4%. Educational participation is high, with 34.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 15.1% in primary, 10.3% in secondary, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 34.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 15.1% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 52 active public transport stops in South Kempsey, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 42 individual routes, offering a total of 309 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 181 meters from the nearest stop. The area being primarily residential, most commuting is outward-bound, with car remaining the dominant mode at 94%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling stands at 1.5. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 7.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 44 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Kempsey faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 46% of the total population (around 1,242 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.9 and 10.3% of residents respectively, while 56.7% report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW.

Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to higher chronic condition rates. The area has 17.4% of residents aged 65 and over (474 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees South Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Kempsey had a cultural diversity level below average, with 87.4% citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 52.4%. This compares to 55.9% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestral groups were Australian (32.0%), English (29.0%), and Australian Aboriginal (15.0%), which is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.6%. Notably, Samoan representation was overrepresented at 0.1%, New Zealand at 0.6%, and Lebanese at 0.2%.

South Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

South Kempsey's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows a prominent percentage (14.7%) of 5-14 year-olds and a smaller percentage (0.4%) of those aged 85 and above compared to the rest of NSW. Between 2021 and now, the population of those aged 35-44 has grown from 10.7% to 12.2%, while the 0-4 cohort increased from 5.6% to 6.7%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 85 and above has declined from 1.4% to 0.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in South Kempsey. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 28%, adding 94 residents to reach a total of 435. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups.