South Kempsey

Population growth drivers in South Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the South Kempsey statistical area (Lv2) is around 2,727. This figure reflects an increase of 123 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,604. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,666 as of June 2024, along with 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 42 persons per square kilometer. South Kempsey's growth rate of 4.7% since census is within 0.3 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth rate of 5.0%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the South Kempsey (SA2) is expected to grow by 438 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 15.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, South Kempsey recorded around 6 residential properties granted approval per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 32 homes. So far in FY-26, 0 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 3 new residents gained for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating healthy demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $403,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In this financial year, $871,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Compared to Rest of NSW, South Kempsey records markedly lower building activity, 57.0% below the regional average per person, which usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 414 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate South Kempsey will gain 412 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

South Kempsey has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Ten infrastructure projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those considered most relevant.

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Employment conditions in South Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

South Kempsey has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, well-represented essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 9.7% as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of September 2025, there are 1,055 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 5.8% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in South Kempsey lags significantly at 45.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. Notably, health care & social assistance has an employment concentration of 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 2.4% compared to the regional average of 5.1%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, South Kempsey's labour force increased by 0.6%, while employment decreased by 1.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment of 2.0 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Statewide, NSW's employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov-25, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to South Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released in financial year 2023, South Kempsey had a median taxpayer income of $40,936 and an average level of $46,857. These figures are below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median and average incomes in South Kempsey as of September 2025 would be approximately $44,563 and $51,009 respectively. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in South Kempsey fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution data shows that 31.8% of South Kempsey's population (867 individuals) earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in South Kempsey, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

South Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

South Kempsey's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.4% houses and 8.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Kempsey stood at 35.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 34.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. Median weekly rent in South Kempsey was $270, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, South Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Kempsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.4 percent of all households, including 23.5 percent couples with children, 24.1 percent couples without children, and 18.7 percent single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.6 percent, with lone person households at 26.7 percent and group households comprising 5.4 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

South Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (0.7%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.4% of residents aged 15+, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (33.4%). Educational participation is high, with 34.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 15.1% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in South Kempsey shows that there are 56 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a mix of bus services. In total, these stops are serviced by 42 individual routes, which together provide 309 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes is 44 trips per day, equating to approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

South Kempsey faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering around 1,242 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues are the most prevalent condition, impacting 11.9% of residents, followed by arthritis at 10.3%. Conversely, 56.7% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the 58.0% in Rest of NSW. The area has a smaller proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 17.5% (477 people), compared to 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees South Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Kempsey had a cultural diversity level below average, with 87.4% of its population being citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in South Kempsey, accounting for 52.4% of the population, compared to 54.2% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (32.0%), English (29.0%), and Australian Aboriginal (15.0%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 7.5%.

Notably, Samoan representation was over twice the regional average at 0.1%, New Zealanders were at 0.6% compared to 0.4%, and Lebanese residents were slightly more numerous at 0.2% versus 0.1%.

South Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

South Kempsey's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows a prominent percentage of 5-14 year-olds at 15.1%, while the 85+ group is smaller at 0.4% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and now, the 35-44 age group has grown from 10.7% to 11.8%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has declined from 1.4% to 0.4%. By 2041, South Kempsey's population is forecasted to change significantly. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 25%, adding 86 residents to reach 433. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts are projected to decline in population.