South Kempsey

Population growth drivers in South Kempsey are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, South Kempsey's population is estimated at around 2,549 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a decrease of 55 people (2.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,604 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,529, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 17 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 39 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, an above median population growth of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is projected, with South Kempsey expected to grow by 423 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 22.6% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in South Kempsey according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, South Kempsey has recorded around 6 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years ending June 2025. This totals an estimated 33 homes approved in that period. As of the current financial year FY-26, no approvals have been recorded yet. On average, each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25 has attracted approximately 2.9 new residents per year, indicating healthy demand for housing in South Kempsey.

The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $403,000, aligning with regional trends. In the current financial year, $1.2 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, South Kempsey has recorded significantly lower building activity, at 55.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, South Kempsey's building activity is also below average, which could be attributed to its maturity and possible planning constraints.

The majority of new building activity in South Kempsey consists of standalone homes (83.0%), with townhouses or apartments making up the remainder (17.0%). This maintains the area's traditional low density character, appealing to those seeking space for families. As of 2025, there are an estimated 769 people per dwelling approval in South Kempsey, reflecting its quiet and low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, South Kempsey is forecasted to gain approximately 575 residents by the year 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases in the area.

South Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 10 projects that are expected to have an impact on the area. Notable projects include Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in South Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

South Kempsey has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 9.3%, and estimated employment growth of 1.1% over the past year (AreaSearch data). As of June 2025, there are 1,057 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 5.6%, higher than Rest of NSW's 3.7%.

Workforce participation is lower at 45.0% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and accommodation & food services. Health care has notable concentration with levels at 1.2 times the regional average, while professional & technical shows lower representation at 2.4% versus regional average of 5.1%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.9.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, labour force grew by 1.5%, raising unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points (AreaSearch data). Comparing to Rest of NSW: employment declined by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's Sep-22 forecasts suggest national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industries. Applying these projections to South Kempsey's mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (simple weighting extrapolation).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

South Kempsey had a median taxpayer income of $40,936 and an average income of $46,857 in financial year 2022. These figures are below the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 for Rest of NSW respectively. By September 2025, estimated median and average incomes would be approximately $46,098 and $52,766, based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in South Kempsey fall between the 5th and 6th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 31.8% of the population earning $800 - $1,499, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

South Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

South Kempsey's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 91.4% houses and 8.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in South Kempsey was 35.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.3% and rented ones at 34.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. Weekly rent in South Kempsey was $270, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, South Kempsey's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

South Kempsey features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.4% of all households, including 23.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 18.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 26.7% and group households making up 5.4%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

South Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, considerably lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (0.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.0%) and certificates (33.4%). Educational participation is high at 34.5%, comprising 15.1% in primary education, 10.3% in secondary education, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

South Kempsey's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,061 students, with varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 839). These schools include one primary, two secondary, and one K-12 school. The area functions as an education hub with 41.6 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 13.1, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in South Kempsey shows that there are currently 51 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 45 individual routes providing service to the area. The collective weekly passenger trips across all these routes amount to 343.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 175 meters from the nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages out to 49 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in South Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across South Kempsey, where a range of health conditions impact both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% (~1,161 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, impacting 11.9% and 10.3% of residents respectively. However, 56.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 58.0% across Rest of NSW. The area has 17.5% of residents aged 65 and over (446 people), which is lower than the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees South Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

South Kempsey had a low cultural diversity, with 87.4% citizens, 93.4% born in Australia, and 97.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 52.4%, compared to 54.2% regionally. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (32.0%), English (29.0%), and Australian Aboriginal (15.0%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 7.5%.

Notably, Samoan representation was over twice the regional average at 0.1%, New Zealand was 0.6% versus 0.4%, and Lebanese was double at 0.2% compared to 0.1%.

South Kempsey hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

South Kempsey's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 are prominent at 15.0%, while those aged 85+ are smaller at 0.4% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the 35-44 age group has grown from 10.7% to 11.9%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has declined from 1.4% to 0.4%. By 2041, South Kempsey's population is expected to see significant demographic changes. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 34%, adding 108 residents to reach 430. Meanwhile, the 65-74 age group grows by a modest 3% (7 people).