Lake Cathie

Lake Cathie lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Lake Cathie's population is estimated at around 4824 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 528 people (12.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4296 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4585 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 298 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 251 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Lake Cathie's growth of 12.3% since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area's growth of 5.7%, along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 85% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, an above median population growth of regional areas nationally is projected, with Lake Cathie expected to increase by 956 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 13% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Lake Cathie among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Lake Cathie averaged around 70 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 351 homes were approved, with a further 18 approved so far in FY-26. This averages out to approximately 0.8 people moving to the area per year for each dwelling built over these five financial years.

The average construction value of new homes is $431,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating a focus on quality construction. In FY-26, there have been $6.2 million in commercial development approvals recorded, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential growth. When compared to the Rest of NSW, Lake Cathie records 104.0% more building activity per person, significantly above the national average and indicative of robust developer interest. New development consists predominantly of detached dwellings at 86.0%, with medium and high-density housing making up the remaining 14.0%. This preserves the area's low density nature while still offering buyers a range of options.

Lake Cathie currently reflects a developing area, with around 72 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Lake Cathie is projected to add 626 residents by 2041 based on current development patterns. Given the pace of new housing supply meeting demand, buyers can expect good conditions and potential population growth beyond current projections.

Lake Cathie has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely to impact the region. Notable projects include Glen Eden Estate, Lake Cathie Foreshore Reserve Master Plan, Whitewater Terrace Development at Lake Cathie, and Rainbow Beach Estate. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis indicates Lake Cathie maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Lake Cathie has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.9% as of September 2025, which is 0.9% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Employment stability in the area has been relatively consistent over the past year. As of September 2025, 1,950 residents were employed. Workforce participation in Lake Cathie was at 49.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Notably, the area has a high concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, with only 0.6% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the comparison between the Census working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.4%, while employment declined by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows that NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Lake Cathie. These projections estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Lake Cathie's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Lake Cathie has a lower income level than the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Lake Cathie is $46,987, with an average income of $58,451. These figures compare to $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for the Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest approximately $51,150 (median) and $63,630 (average) as of September 2025. As per the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Lake Cathie all fall between the 18th and 20th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 28.8% of residents (1,389 people) earn within the $800 - 1,499 bracket, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. After housing costs, 85.2% of income remains, ranking at the 20th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Lake Cathie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lake Cathie's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.1% houses and 9.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 75.9% houses and 24.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Cathie was at 54.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.3% and rented ones at 17.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,850, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Lake Cathie was $380, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, Lake Cathie's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Lake Cathie has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households compose 75.8% of all households, including 24.2% couples with children, 40.9% couples without children, and 9.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for 24.2%, with lone person households at 23.1% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Educational attainment in Lake Cathie aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has university qualification rates at 18.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 11.7% and certificates at 32.9%.

A substantial 24.5% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.6% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Lake Cathie shows that there are currently 39 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 30 individual routes providing service to the community. The combined weekly passenger trips across all routes amount to 251.

The accessibility of transport in Lake Cathie is rated as good, with residents typically residing approximately 212 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 35 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Cathie is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Cathie faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 50%, covering around half of Lake Cathie's total population of about 2,415 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.3% of residents) and mental health issues (7.8%), while 60.2% report having no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 59.9%. Lake Cathie has a larger proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 31.9% (1,538 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 28.7%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Lake Cathie are above average, even outperforming the general population in certain health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Lake Cathie placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Cathie, surveyed in June 2016, had a population with 89.0% born in Australia and 94.3% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 97.7%. Christianity was the dominant religion, practised by 58.6%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 57.5%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.8%), Australian (32.7%), and Scottish (9.4%). Notably, Maltese (0.6% vs regional 0.4%) and French (0.5% vs regional 0.4%) were overrepresented, while Australian Aboriginal was slightly underrepresented at 3.2% compared to the region's 3.8%.

Lake Cathie ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Lake Cathie is 52 years, which is significantly higher than the average for Rest of NSW at 43 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. The proportion of residents aged 65-74 years is notably higher in Lake Cathie at 18.0% compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 25-34 years are under-represented at 6.6%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has increased from 10.6% to 11.6%, while the percentage of those aged 65 to 74 has decreased from 19.0% to 18.0%. Population forecasts for Lake Cathie in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes, with the 75 to 84 age group projected to grow by 21%, adding 117 residents to reach a total of 677. Conversely, numbers in the 55 to 64 age range are expected to fall by 18%.