Lake Cathie

Lake Cathie lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

According to the analysis of demographic records from the ABS for the wider region, combined with address verifications performed by AreaSearch following the Census, the suburb of Lake Cathie has a projected population of approximately 5,286 in May 2026. This indicates a growth of 990 residents (23.0%) relative to the 2021 Census, which counted 4,296 individuals. The discrepancy is derived from a resident count of 5,282 estimated by AreaSearch using the ABS population dataset from June 2025 alongside an extra 487 verified new addresses registered post-Census. With this population level, the density stands at 275 persons per square kilometer, indicating low density and capacity for future housing expansion. The 23.0% expansion recorded since the 2021 census outpaced the Rest of NSW (4.9%) and the SA4 region, establishing the locality as a regional growth leader. Population expansion was mostly driven by arrivals from other states, which accounted for roughly 85.0% of the total demographic growth in recent times.

AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia for individual SA2 zones published in 2024 using a baseline year of 2022. Wherever these projections are missing, SA2 predictions issued by the NSW State Government in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are applied instead. The age-cohort growth patterns from these datasets are projected forward for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Future demographic projections suggest the suburb of Lake Cathie will grow at a rate higher than the national median for regional areas, with a projected rise of 1,000 residents by 2041 based on compiled SA2 projections, representing an overall expansion of 18.8% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Lake Cathie was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Data on building permits from the ABS, compiled for this locality, indicates that the suburb of Lake Cathie has averaged approximately 82 residential approvals annually. This includes 414 residential permits issued over the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 58 registered during FY-26. Property demand remains strong with an average of 2.7 additional residents added per finished residence over the last 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), supporting local real estate values. New residential construction costs average $431,000, which is slightly higher than the regional average and points to premium building standards. Furthermore, commercial permits valued at $6.2 million were registered during the current financial year, representing a minor emphasis on business infrastructure.

Building volume per citizen in the suburb of Lake Cathie is 130.0% higher than in the Rest of NSW, providing home buyers with more options. This building rate is well above the national standard, reflecting strong interest from real estate developers. Construction projects are dominated by single-family houses at 86.0%, while medium and high-density apartments make up 14.0%, maintaining the low-density character of the area which is attractive to buyers seeking spacious environments. With a ratio of roughly 65 residents per approved dwelling, the suburb of Lake Cathie shows characteristics of a growing community.

Long-term forecasts indicate the suburb of Lake Cathie will add 996 residents by 2041 based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. Current building trends suggest that incoming housing stock will easily satisfy local demand, maintaining favorable purchasing conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond the projected numbers.

Lake Cathie has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Local infrastructure updates, development approvals, and planning projects play a critical role in shaping the growth of an area. AreaSearch has identified a total of 6 projects that are expected to influence the local area. The primary developments include Glen Eden Estate, Whitewater Terrace Development, Lake Cathie, Lake Cathie Foreshore Reserve Master Plan, and the upgrade of Lake Cathie Public School, with details provided below for the most significant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Lake Cathie ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

The suburb of Lake Cathie has a qualified workforce with a high concentration of workers in crucial service industries. The unemployment rate is low at 2.8%, based on compiled statistical data. In March 2026, working residents numbered 2,145, with unemployment sitting 1.3% below the Regional NSW average of 4.1%. However, participation in the workforce is notably lower, at 49.7% compared to 60.6% in Regional NSW. According to Census data, 14.5% of the workforce operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by pandemic-related restrictions.

The primary sectors employing local residents are healthcare & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The building sector shows a strong concentration, employing workers at 1.4 times the regional rate. Conversely, agricultural, forestry, and fishing industries have a minimal footprint, employing only 0.6% of workers compared to 5.3% across the region. Local employment options appear limited, as shown by comparing the count of working residents against those who work locally according to the Census.

According to analysis of SALM and ABS statistics for the year ending March 2026, the local labor pool contracted by 1.0% and total employment dropped by 1.2%, which led to a 0.2 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. For the same timeframe, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 0.9% and the labor force shrink by 0.4%, with unemployment increasing by 0.5 percentage points. Future employment trends in the suburb of Lake Cathie can be analyzed using the national forecasts published by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25. These five and ten-year forecasts have been combined with the local workforce profile to model future growth. Although national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the expansion varies widely by industry. Applying these industry projections to the local employment structure suggests that employment in the suburb of Lake Cathie will rise by 6.7% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, assuming a basic weighted calculation that does not account for local population changes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Tax statistics from the ATO compiled for the 2023 financial year show that the suburb of Lake Cathie has personal income levels below the national average. Taxpayers in the suburb of Lake Cathie registered a median income of $46,987 and an average income of $58,451, compared to $52,390 and $65,215 for Regional NSW. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates point to a median income of $51,836 and an average of $64,483 as of March 2026. Census statistics from 2021 show that household, family, and individual incomes in the suburb of Lake Cathie rank between the 18th and 20th percentiles nationally. The largest income bracket is $800 - 1,499, accounting for 28.8% of residents (1,522 individuals), whereas the dominant bracket across the wider region is $1,500 - 2,999 at 29.9%. Once housing costs are paid, residents retain 85.2% of their income, placing the area in the 20th percentile nationally, while the SEIFA index ranks the local income level in the 5th decile.

Lake Cathie is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Census data reveals that housing in the suburb of Lake Cathie consists of 91.1% separate houses and 9.0% alternative housing types such as townhouses and flats, compared to Regional NSW where separate houses comprise 82.6% and other dwellings make up 17.4%. Outright home ownership is high at 54.0%, which is well above the Regional NSW rate, while the remaining homes are occupied by buyers with a mortgage (28.3%) or tenants (17.7%). The median monthly home loan payment was $1,850, higher than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, and the median weekly rent was $380, compared to $330 regionally. On a national level, home loan repayments in the suburb of Lake Cathie are below the Australian average of $1,863, whereas rental costs exceed the national average of $375.

Lake Cathie has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Families make up 75.8% of local households, consisting of couples with children at 24.2%, couples without children at 40.9%, and single-parent households at 9.8%. The remaining 24.2% are non-family households, which are mostly single-person households at 23.1% and group households at 1.1%. The average household size is 2.4 residents, matching the Regional NSW standard.

Educational attainment in Lake Cathie aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The local population has low rates of higher education, with university qualification levels at 18.3%, well below the NSW average of 32.2%. This gap highlights a clear opportunity for targeted educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 13.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.2%. Vocational skills are highly prevalent, with 44.6% of residents aged 15 and over possessing trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 11.7% and certificates at 32.9%.

A significant 24.5% of residents are enrolled in study. This population includes 9.6% in primary schools, 7.1% in high schools, and 2.4% attending tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport reveals that there are 39 transit stops operating in the suburb of Lake Cathie, consisting of various bus options. These stops are serviced by 30 separate bus routes, offering a total of 251 weekly passenger connections. Accessibility is high, with homes situated an average of 212 meters from the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, resulting in a high rate of outbound commuting, with private cars remaining the primary travel choice for 95% of workers. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.5 cars per home. Approximately 14.5% of working residents worked from home during the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic conditions.

Transit service frequency averages 35 daily runs across all active routes, which translates to roughly 6 weekly services for each transit stop.

Lake Cathie's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Health statistics show positive trends for the suburb of Lake Cathie. Mortality data and the frequency of health issues align with national averages, showing a low incidence of common conditions in both younger and older cohorts. Private health insurance coverage is relatively low, held by approximately 50% of residents (~2,647 individuals), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The primary medical diagnoses in the region are arthritis and mental health conditions, affecting 13.3% and 7.8% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 60.2% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Residents of working age experience higher than average rates of chronic health issues. Individuals aged 65 and over make up 34.5% of the local population (1,823 individuals), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Seniors in the area enjoy positive health outcomes, with national health rankings matching those of the broader population.

The latest Census data sees Lake Cathie placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

The suburb of Lake Cathie shows low levels of cultural diversity. Local residents born in Australia make up 89.0% of the population, 94.3% hold citizenship, and 97.7% speak only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, practiced by 58.6% of the population, compared to 55.9% in Regional NSW.

Looking at ancestral backgrounds, the three most common heritages are English at 32.8%, Australian at 32.7%, and Scottish at 9.4%. There are some differences compared to regional averages, with Maltese heritage overrepresented at 0.6% of the population (compared to 0.4% regionally), French at 0.5% (compared to 0.4%), and Indigenous Australian heritage at 3.2% (compared to 4.6%).

Lake Cathie ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of 52 years is much higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 age group is highly represented at 19.1% locally, compared to the regional average, while young adults aged 25 - 34 are underrepresented at 6.1%. This concentration of residents aged 65 - 74 is significantly higher than the national figure of 9.4%. Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has risen from 10.6% to 12.9%, while the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 12.5% to 10.5%. Population projections for 2041 point to major demographic shifts. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow the fastest at 25%, adding 168 people to reach a total of 850, while the 55 to 64 group is projected to grow by just 2% (17 individuals).