Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's population is around 14,219 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,743 people (14.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,476 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,202 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 484 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 67 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's 14.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.5%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 91.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 5,509 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 31.6% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has averaged around 132 new dwelling approvals each year, with 664 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 61 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.2 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), indicating healthy demand that should support property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $333,000. Additionally, $7.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character.

When measured against the Rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head records 104.0% more construction activity (per person), which should provide buyers with ample choice. New building activity shows 79.0% detached houses and 21.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 112 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head will gain 4,492 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 27 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar, Old Bar Growth Areas, Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing, and Emerald Fields, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has been broadly consistent with national averages

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of just 2.8%. As of December 2025, 5,729 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (52.7% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 14.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a limited presence with 2.8% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.1% combined with employment decreasing by 2.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where employment contracted by 1.2%, the labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $49,464 and an average of $59,429 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is lower than average on a national basis, contrasting with Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $53,847 (median) and $64,694 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head all fall between the 16th and 16th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the $800 - 1,499 bracket dominates with 28.8% of residents (4,095 people), differing from patterns across the region where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 29.9%. After housing, 85.1% of income remains, though this ranks at only the 18th percentile nationally and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.6% houses and 12.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 51.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.2%) or rented (20.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Regional NSW average at $1,733, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $360, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 71.0% of all households, comprising 21.8% couples with children, 39.0% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.6%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (32.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 262 active transport stops operating within Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 335 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 174 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. Some 14.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 47 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 1 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~6,953 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 12.6 and 8.4% of residents, respectively, while 59.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 34.3% of residents aged 65 and over (4,871 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.0% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is Christianity, which makes up 56.7% of people in the area. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head are English, comprising 32.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 31.4% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 3.9% of Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head (vs 4.6% regionally), Scottish at 8.3% (vs 8.0%) and Maltese at 0.5% (vs 0.4%).

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

With a median age of 53, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is considerably higher than the Regional NSW figure of 43, and similarly substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Relative to Regional NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a higher concentration of 65 - 74 residents (19.7%) but fewer 15 - 24 year-olds (7.6%). This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.8% to 11.3% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 10.7% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 16.0% to 14.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 65 to 74 group will grow by 22% (609 people), reaching 3,411 from 2,801.