Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's population was around 13,399 as of November 2025. This figure reflects a growth of 923 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,476. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 13,215 in June 2024 and an additional 487 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 63 persons per square kilometer. Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's growth rate of 7.4% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA3 area (3.8%) and SA4 region, making it a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 91.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head expected to expand by 5,509 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 39.6% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Between FY-21 and FY-25, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals per year. In total, 664 homes were approved during these five financial years. By the end of FY-26, an additional 40 homes had been approved.

On average, around 2.2 people moved to the area annually for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating strong demand that may support property values. The average expected construction cost value of these new homes was $333,000. In FY-26 alone, $7.3 million in commercial development approvals were recorded, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head experienced 104.0% more construction activity per person as of this measurement.

New building activity consisted of approximately 79.0% detached houses and 21.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character and appealing to those seeking family homes with space. The location had about 112 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is projected to gain approximately 5,312 residents by 2041. Construction activity is keeping pace with this growth, although increasing competition among buyers can be expected as the population continues to rise.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar (2018), Old Bar Manning Point Coastal Management Program (2019-2021), Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing (proposed start: 2022), and Old Bar Growth Areas (ongoing). The following list details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.7% as of September 2025.

Employment stability has been relatively consistent over the past year. There are 5,814 residents currently employed, with an unemployment rate that is 1.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. However, workforce participation lags behind at 47.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

The area specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share that is 1.2 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, with only 2.8% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Analysis based on AreaSearch data from September 2025 shows a 0.5% increase in labour force and a 0.4% decrease in employment over the year, resulting in a 0.9 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. This contrasts with Rest of NSW, where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. In broader context, state-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. National employment forecasts by Jobs and Skills Australia, as of May-25, project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years. However, note that this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $46,885 and an average of $57,124 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Rest of NSW's median income being $49,459 and average income being $62,998. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $52,797 (median) and $64,327 (average). The 2021 Census showed household, family, and personal incomes in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head falling between the 16th and 16th percentiles nationally. Income analysis revealed that the $800 - $1,499 bracket dominated with 28.8% of residents (3,858 people), differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominated with 29.9%. After housing costs, 85.1% of income remained, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head, as assessed in the latest Census, 87.6% of dwellings were houses and 12.5% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. This is comparable to Non-Metro NSW's composition of 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was higher than that of Non-Metro NSW at 51.6%. Of the remaining dwellings, 28.2% were mortgaged and 20.2% were rented. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, which is above Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,430. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure stood at $360, compared to Non-Metro NSW's average of $300. Nationally, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 71.0% of all households, consisting of 21.8% couples with children, 39.0% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high at 25.2%, comprising primary education (10.0%), secondary education (7.1%), and tertiary education (2.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 255 active transport stops operating within Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totaling 25 individual routes. Collectively, these routes provide 350 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 174 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 50 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions.

Only 48% (~6,471 people) of the population has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%. Arthritis is the most prevalent condition, affecting 12.6% of residents, followed by asthma at 8.4%. 59.7% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 57.7%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (33.8%, or 4,527 people), compared to the Rest of NSW at 30.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head are above average, even better than those of the general population.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head, surveyed in June-August 2016, had low cultural diversity: 88.0% of residents were born in Australia, 91.8% were citizens, and 96.5% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 56.7% adherents, slightly lower than Rest of NSW's 57.6%. Ancestry-wise, English (32.6%) and Australian (31.4%) were the most prevalent, followed by Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginals were overrepresented at 3.9%, compared to 5.8% regionally; Scottish (8.3%) and Maltese (0.5%) also had slight overrepresentations.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head has a median age of 53, which is higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (19.6%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.5%). This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.8% to 11.1% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age cohort has declined from 12.0% to 11.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head's age structure, with the 65 to 74 group expected to grow by 30%, reaching 3,411 people from the current 2,620.