Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head
Statistical Area - sa2

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's population was around 13,336 as of Aug 2025. This reflected an increase of 860 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,476 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,215 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 460 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 63 persons per square kilometer. Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's growth rate of 6.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.8%) and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 91.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilised NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecasted a significant increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head expected to expand by 5,509 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting an increase of 40.3% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals each year. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 664 dwellings approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, and 20 approved so far in FY-26. On average, around 2.2 people have moved to the area annually for each new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating healthy demand which should support property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $498,000.

Additionally, $7.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded during this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head records approximately 104.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers ample choice. New building activity shows 79.0% detached houses and 21.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The location has approximately 112 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

Population forecasts indicate Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head will gain around 5,375 residents by 2041. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar, Old Bar Manning Point Coastal Management Program, Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing, and Emerald Fields. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.6% as of June 2025.

Employment stability was maintained over the past year, with 5,752 residents employed and an unemployment rate of 1.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 47.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction, with notable concentration in health care & social assistance at 1.2 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, with only 2.8% employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data analysis. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3%, while labour force grew by 0.9%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. Rest of NSW saw employment decline of 0.1% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. State-level data as of Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%, compared to national rates of 4.5%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

In financial year 2022, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head had a median taxpayer income of $46,885 and an average income of $57,124. This was lower than the national averages of $49,459 (median) and $62,998 (average). By March 2025, estimates based on a 10.6% Wage Price Index growth project these figures to be approximately $51,855 (median) and $63,179 (average). Census data from 2021 places household, family, and personal incomes in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head between the 16th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $800 - 1,499 dominated with 28.8% of residents (3,840 people), unlike the regional pattern where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 29.9%. After housing expenses, 85.1% of income remained, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head, as per the latest Census evaluation, 87.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 12.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is similar to Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure of 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head stood at 51.6%, with mortgaged properties at 28.2% and rented dwellings at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $360, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 71.0% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 39.0% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households making up 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has university qualification rates of 20.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (32.1%).

Educational participation is high at 25.2%, including primary education (10.0%), secondary education (7.1%), and tertiary education (2.4%). The three schools in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head have a combined enrollment of 832 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 979) offering balanced educational opportunities. These schools cater exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 6.2 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.3, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 255 active public transport stops within Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head region. These stops facilitate a mix of bus services. A total of 25 routes operate weekly, serving 350 passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents averaging 174 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 50 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 48%, covering about 6,441 people, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.6% of residents) and asthma (impacting 8.4%), while 59.7% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 57.7%. The region has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 33.8% or about 4,506 people, compared to Rest of NSW's 30.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head showed lower cultural diversity, with 88.0% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 56.7%. This figure is slightly below the Rest of NSW average of 57.6%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (31.4%), and Irish (8.9%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 3.9% compared to the regional average of 5.8%. Scottish ancestry was also slightly higher at 8.3%, while Maltese ancestry was marginally higher at 0.5%.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is 53, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (19.6%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.5%). This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national figure of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75 to 84 has grown from 9.8% to 11.1%, while the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 12.0% to 11.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's age structure. Notably, the 65 to 74 age group is projected to grow by 31%, adding 802 people and reaching a total of 3,411 from the current figure of 2,608.