Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's population is 13,399 as of November 2025. This reflects a 7.4% increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,476 people. The change was inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 13,215 in June 2024 and an additional 487 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 63 persons per square kilometer. Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's growth exceeded its SA3 area (3.8%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 91.2% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head expected to expand by 5,509 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 39.6% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals annually between FY-21 and FY-25. A total of 664 homes were approved during these five financial years, with an additional 31 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, around 2.2 people per year have moved to the area for each new home constructed over this period, indicating robust demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $498,000. This financial year has seen $7.3 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head records 104.0% more construction activity per person. New building activity comprises 79.0% detached houses and 21.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes.

The location has approximately 112 people per dwelling approval, suggesting an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is projected to gain 5,312 residents by 2041. Construction activity is keeping pace with population growth, although increasing competition among buyers can be expected as the population expands.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 42ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 26 projects likely to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar (2018), Old Bar Manning Point Coastal Management Program (started 2015), Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing project (commenced 2017), and Old Bar Growth Areas plan (approved 2016). Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 2.6%.

Employment stability over the past year is relative. As of June 2025, 5752 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 1.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 47.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 2.8% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census working population vs resident population comparison. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3%, labour force increased by 0.9%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $46,885 and an average of $57,124 in financial year 2022. This was lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. As of September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $52,797 (median) and $64,327 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head fall between the 16th and 16th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis shows that the $800 - $1,499 bracket dominates with 28.8% of residents (3,858 people), unlike the regional pattern where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates at 29.9%. After housing costs, 85.1% of income remains, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head, as per the latest Census, consisted of 87.6% houses and 12.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was at 51.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.2% and rented ones at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $360, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less at $360 than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 71.0% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 39.0% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the Rest of NSW average.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area has university qualification rates of 20.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (32.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 25.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in the Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head area shows that there are currently 255 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 25 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate approximately 350 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 174 meters away from the nearest transport stop. On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to about 50 trips per day, which translates to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head faces significant health challenges. Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Only approximately 48% (~6,471 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.6%) and asthma (8.4%). About 59.7% consider themselves free from medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of NSW's 57.7%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 33.8% (4,527 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 30.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, even better than the general population in various health metrics.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head had below average cultural diversity, with 88.0% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 56.7% of people, compared to 57.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (31.4%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 3.9%, Scottish at 8.3%, and Maltese at 0.5%.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is 53, which is considerably higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a higher concentration of 65-74 residents (19.6%) but fewer 25-34 year-olds (7.5%). This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.8% to 11.1% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 11.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's age structure. Notably, the 65 to 74 group is projected to grow by 30%, reaching 3,411 from 2,620.