Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's population is approximately 13,516. This figure represents an increase of 1,040 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 12,476. The estimated resident population in June 2025 was 13,450, with an additional 501 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density ratio of 64 persons per square kilometer. Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's population grew by 8.3% between the 2021 Census and May 2026, outpacing both its SA3 area (3.6%) and the Rest of NSW. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 90.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered SA2 areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's population is forecasted to increase by 5,020 persons, reflecting a total increase of 36.6% over the 16-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

The level of residential development activity in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25. A total of 664 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 78 approved in FY-26 as of now. The area has seen an average of 2.2 people moving in per new home constructed annually over the past five financial years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $333,000. This year alone, $7.3 million worth of commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has seen 101.0% more construction activity per person. The new building activity is primarily focused on detached houses at 79.0%, with attached dwellings making up the remaining 21.0%, maintaining the area's traditional low density character and appealing to families seeking space.

With approximately 112 people per dwelling approval, the market is expanding. Population forecasts suggest that Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head will gain around 4,954 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction activity is keeping pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population grows.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects that may affect this region. Notable initiatives include Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar (scheduled for completion in late 2021), Old Bar Growth Areas (commenced April 2019, expected finish by mid-2022), Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing (started January 2020, estimated completion March 2023), and Emerald Fields (beginning October 2021, projected end date June 2024). The following list details projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has been broadly consistent with national averages

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.8%. By that date, 5,729 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.2% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation stands at 51.5%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 14.1% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 2.8% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.1% and employment fell by 2.0%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $49,464 and an average income of $59,429 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages, with Regional NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. By March 2026, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $54,569 and the average $65,562, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census showed household, family, and personal incomes in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head falling between the 16th and 16th percentiles nationally. Income analysis revealed that 28.8% of residents (3,892 people) earned within the $800 - $1,499 bracket, unlike regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominated with 29.9%. After housing costs, 85.1% of income remained, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head, as per the latest Census evaluation, 87.6% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 12.5% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head stood at 51.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.2% and rented ones at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $360 compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head had lower mortgage repayments ($1,733 vs. Australia's $1,863) and rents ($360 vs. national figure of $375).

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.0% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 39.0% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.1% and certificates at 32.1%. Educational participation is high, with 25.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head indicates that there are 262 active transport stops operating within the area, consisting of a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 25 individual routes, collectively providing 335 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 174 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward, with the car being the dominant mode of transport at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, some 14.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 47 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 1 weekly trip per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes for Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head region based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions were found to be slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover was very low, at approximately 49% of the total population (~6,609 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis (12.6%) and asthma (8.4%), while 59.7% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 35.1% of residents aged 65 and over (4,745 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head was found to have a low level of cultural diversity, with 88.0% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head is Christianity, which is followed by 56.7% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (32.6%), Australian (31.4%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, the representation of certain ethnic groups differs from regional averages: Australian Aboriginal is higher at 3.9% (vs 4.6%), Scottish is slightly higher at 8.3% (vs 8.0%), and Maltese is marginally higher at 0.5% (vs 0.4%).

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is 53, which is considerably higher than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Relative to Regional NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (20.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (7.2%). This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.8% to 11.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 16.0% to 14.6%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 12.0% to 10.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's age structure. Notably, the 65 to 74 group is projected to grow by 26%, reaching 3,426 from 2,709.