Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

AreaSearch's analysis indicates that Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's population stands at approximately 14,219 as of February 2026. This figure reflects a growth of 1,743 people, representing a 14.0% increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,476. The inferred change is based on the estimated resident population of 13,202 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 484 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 67 persons per square kilometer, offering significant space per person and potential room for further development. Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's growth rate of 14.0% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (5.5%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 91.2% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of non-metropolitan areas nationally, with Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head expected to expand by 5,509 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 31.6% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head averaged approximately 132 new dwelling approvals annually from FY-21 to FY-25. A total of 664 homes were approved during this period, with an additional 51 approved in FY-26. This equates to around 2.2 people moving to the area per new home constructed annually over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value for these new homes was approximately $333,000. In FY-26 alone, there have been $7.3 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting the residential character of the area. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has seen 104.0% more construction activity per person since FY-21. The dwelling approvals consist of approximately 79.0% detached houses and 21.0% attached dwellings, maintaining a traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes.

As of the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, there are approximately 112 people per dwelling approval in the area. Population forecasts indicate that Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is expected to gain around 4,492 residents by 2041. Construction activity has been maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population continues to rise.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 27 projects likely to impact the region. Notable initiatives include Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar (14/06/2018), Old Bar Growth Areas (05/09/2019), Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing (12/03/2020), and Emerald Fields (17/05/2021). The following details projects most likely to be relevant.

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Employment performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

The area known as Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.7%. Over the past year, there has been relative employment stability.

There are currently 5,814 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. However, workforce participation lags behind at 53.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 14.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

Notably, the area specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.2 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 2.8%, compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.5% while employment decreased by 0.4%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment increase by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's employment mix indicates potential local employment increases of 6.8% over five years and 14.1% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $49,464 and an average income of $59,429 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than national averages; Rest of NSW's median income was $52,390 with an average income of $65,215. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $53,847 (median) and $64,694 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. The 2021 Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head fell between the 16th and 16th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 28.8% of residents (4,095 people) earned between $800 - 1,499, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 29.9%. After housing expenses, 85.1% of income remained, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 4th decile.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head, as per the latest Census evaluation, 87.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 12.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head stood at 51.6%, with mortgaged properties making up 28.2% and rented dwellings accounting for 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure was $360, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.0% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 39.0% couples without children, and 9.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.0%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head shows below-average educational performance compared to national benchmarks, though pockets of achievement exist

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.7% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.1%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high, with 25.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.0% in primary, 7.1% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.1% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head indicates that there are 262 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 25 individual routes providing service to the region. Collectively, these routes facilitate 335 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in the area is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 174 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. The car remains the dominant mode of transportation, used by 95% of residents.

On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area. According to the 2021 Census, some 14.1% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 47 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop. An accompanying map displays the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centerpoint.

Health performance in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is low at approximately 49% of the total population (~6,953 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 12.6%) and asthma (8.4%). However, 59.7% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 34.3% of residents aged 65 and over (4,871 people), higher than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar-Manning Point-Red Head, surveyed in August 2016, had low cultural diversity with 88.0% of its population born in Australia, 91.8% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 56.7%, slightly higher than the regional average of 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were English (32.6%), Australian (31.4%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 3.9% compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Scottish and Maltese representations were also slightly higher at 8.3% and 0.5%, respectively, than their regional averages of 8.0% and 0.4%.

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a median age of 53, which is considerably higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head has a higher concentration of 65-74 residents at 19.7%, but fewer 15-24 year-olds at 7.6%. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.8% to 11.3% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.0% to 10.7%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 16.0% to 14.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Old Bar - Manning Point - Red Head's age structure. The 65 to 74 group is projected to grow by 22%, reaching 3,411 from the current figure of 2,801.