Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Tuncurry is around 6,233. This shows a decrease of 143 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,376. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, along with an additional 38 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 397 persons per square kilometer. Population growth in the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, an above median population growth is projected for locations outside capital cities, with the suburb of Tuncurry expected to expand by 1,071 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 17.1% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Tuncurry has received approximately 6 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 33 homes. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply is keeping pace with demand, offering diverse housing options at an average construction cost of $367,000. This year, $3.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Tuncurry's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tuncurry has significantly lower building activity, recording 83.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new construction typically supports demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, the area's development is also below average, suggesting maturity and potential planning constraints. New developments consist of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments catering to various price points. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 902 people, indicating a quiet development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tuncurry is projected to add 1,067 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep up with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Twelve projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Among these key projects are Tuncurry Village Hub, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Tuncurry are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tuncurry's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. The unemployment rate, as of December 2025, is 5.4%. This rate is 1.5% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, while workforce participation lags at 40.7%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%.

According to Census responses in 2025, only 9.4% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Tuncurry specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. Conversely, public administration & safety has lower representation at 4.3%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%.

The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.1% and employment fell by 1.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, the labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 estimate that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Tuncurry suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $36,096 and an average of $47,708. Nationally, these figures are lower than the average. In comparison, Regional NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Tuncurry's median and average incomes are approximately $39,821 and $52,631 respectively as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Tuncurry fall within the 0th to 3rd percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 38.7% of residents (2,412 people) earn between $400 and $799 weekly, unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. Lower income households are prevalent in Tuncurry, with 47.3% earning below $800 weekly, suggesting affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tuncurry, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry was at 54.3%, with mortgaged properties at 16.8% and rented dwellings at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,322, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was $310, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates at 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.9%).

School and university attendance encompasses 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tuncurry has 90 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 24 different routes that together facilitate 409 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 105 meters from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential area, most people commute outwards. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 90%, while walking accounts for 8%. On average, there are 0.9 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 9.4% of residents work from home, a figure that might be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 58 trips per day, resulting in approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 2,859 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (15.4%) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 49.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Tuncurry has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (43.5%, or 2,711 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tuncurry, comprising 64.6% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 3.7%, matching regional levels for Maltese (0.4%) and Welsh (0.5%).

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age was 61 years as of 2021, which is significantly older than Regional NSW's median age of 43 and higher than Australia's national average of 38. The 75-84 age cohort made up 16.5% of Tuncurry's population in the 2021 Census, compared to just 6.1% nationally, indicating an over-representation of this age group locally. Conversely, the 5-14 age cohort was under-represented at 6.5%. Between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, Tuncurry's population saw changes in several age groups: the 35-44 cohort grew from 6.6% to 8.6%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.0%. Meanwhile, the 55-64 group declined from 15.0% to 13.4%, and the 65-74 group decreased slightly from 21.6% to 20.2%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure, with the 45-54 cohort projected to expand by 226 people (40%) from 573 to 800, while the 15-24 cohort is expected to grow minimally by just 3% (15 people).