Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Tuncurry is around 6,456. This figure reflects a growth of 80 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,376. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 6,299 in Jun 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 412 persons per square kilometer. Tuncurry's growth rate of 1.3% since the census is within 1.5 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth rate of 2.8%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, the suburb is expected to expand by 1,264 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 17.1% in total over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Tuncurry has received around 6 dwelling approvals per year on average over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 33 homes. In FY-26 so far, 5 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $367,000.

This financial year, $3.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tuncurry records markedly lower building activity, with 83.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. The area also falls below national averages, suggesting maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points.

The estimated population per dwelling approval is 903 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections show Tuncurry adding 1,107 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified twelve projects that could impact the area significantly due to changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. These include Tuncurry Village Hub, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section, with the following list highlighting those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Tuncurry are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tuncurry has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 5.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2180 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.5% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Tuncurry lags at 40.4%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Census responses indicate that only 9.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Tuncurry specializes in accommodation & food jobs, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, public administration & safety has lower representation at 4.3% compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The area may have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Tuncurry's labour force decreased by 1.1%, with employment decreasing by 1.9%, leading to an unemployment rate increase of 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, the labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Tuncurry's median income among taxpayers is $36,096. The average income in the suburb is $47,708. Nationally, these figures are lower than the average. In Regional NSW, the median income is $52,390 and the average is $65,215. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% suggest Tuncurry's median income will be approximately $39,294 and the average will be around $51,935. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Tuncurry fall between the 0th and 3rd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The earnings profile shows that 38.7% of residents (2,498 people) earn between $400 and $799 weekly, unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. Lower income households are prevalent, with 47.3% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Tuncurry, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Tuncurry was 54.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.8% and rented ones at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,322, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $310, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% that are couples with children, 34.0% that are couples without children, and 10.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 32.9%.

School and university attendance accounts for 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 90 active transport stops operating within Tuncurry, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 24 individual routes, providing a total of 409 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 105 meters from the nearest transport stop. In this primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transport at 90%, with 8% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 9.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 58 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges, according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age cohorts show high prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,962 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 15.4% of residents) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 49.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age population health is notably challenging due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 42.8%, with 2,763 people, compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the overall population.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Tuncurry, comprising 64.6% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 3.7% in Tuncurry than the regional average of 4.6%. Maltese and Welsh representations remain similar to regional averages, at 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age was 61 years as of the 2021 Census, which is significantly older than Regional NSW's median age of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65-74 cohort made up 20.2% of Tuncurry's population, notably higher than Regional NSW's average and well above the national average of 9.5%. Meanwhile, the 5-14 year-olds were under-represented at 6.5%. Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, Tuncurry's median age decreased by 1 year to 61 years, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. The 35-44 age group grew from 6.6% to 8.9%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 15.0% to 13.3%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 21.6% to 20.2%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure. The 45-54 cohort is projected to expand by 237 people (40%), growing from 593 to 831. In contrast, the 15-24 cohort shows minimal growth of just 3%, increasing by 12 people.