Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Tuncurry is around 6,331, reflecting a decrease of 45 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 6,376. This decrease was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 6,303 in June 2024, based on ABS ERP data release and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 404 persons per square kilometer. While Tuncurry experienced a 0.7% decline since census, the SA3 area achieved 2.1% growth, indicating divergent trends. Interstate migration contributed about 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 1,260 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 19.4% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Tuncurry shows around 6 dwellings receiving development approval each year over the past five financial years ending June 2021, totalling an estimated 33 homes. As of April 2026, 4 approvals have been recorded. The average construction cost value for new properties is $367,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, $137,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Tuncurry records markedly lower building activity, 83.0% below the regional average per person. New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. The estimated population density is 903 people per dwelling approval. Future projections show Tuncurry adding 1,228 residents by 2041, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and supporting price increases if current development rates continue.

Future projections show Tuncurry adding 1,228 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tuncurry has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 13 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Tuncurry Village Hub Redevelopment, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. Below is a list detailing those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Tuncurry are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tuncurry's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.4% as of June 2024.

Employment has been relatively stable over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of June 2025, 2,228 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.2%, above Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 35.7% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade.

Accommodation & food has notable concentration with levels at 1.8 times the regional average. Conversely, public administration & safety shows lower representation at 4.3% versus the regional average of 7.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3%, labour force grew by 1.0%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points in Tuncurry. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in Sep-22, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Tuncurry had a median income among taxpayers of $36,096 and an average of $47,708. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $40,648 (median) and $53,724 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Tuncurry fall between the 0th and 3rd percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 38.7% of residents (2,450 people) earn within the $400 - 799 bracket, unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Lower income households are prevalent, with 47.3% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tuncurry's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 73.0% houses and 27.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry was at 54.3%, similar to Non-Metro NSW, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (16.8%) or rented (29.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,322, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent figure in Tuncurry was $310, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,322 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 56.8 percent of all households, including 11.9 percent composed of couples with children, 34.0 percent comprising couples without children, and 10.1 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 43.2 percent, with lone person households at 40.6 percent and group households making up 2.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.1.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 10.0%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.9%).

School and university attendance encompasses 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education. Tuncurry's 5 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,154 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 959) offering balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is split between 1 primary and 4 secondary institutions. The area functions as an education hub with 18.2 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 10.4, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 83 active public transport stops in Tuncurry. These stops are served by a mix of buses operating along 24 routes, offering 426 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 106 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 60 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 46%, or around 2,904 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (15.4%) and mental health issues (9.5%), while 49.7% report no medical ailments, lower than Rest of NSW's 56.6%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 42.8%, or approximately 2,709 people, higher than the 36.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present certain challenges, despite performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry, as per the census data from June 2016, exhibited low cultural diversity with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Tuncurry, accounting for 64.6% of people, compared to 58.5% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 3.7% in Tuncurry than the regional average of 4.3%. Maltese and Welsh populations were also slightly higher at 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, compared to their regional averages of 0.5% and 0.4%.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age is 61 years, which is significantly older than Rest of NSW's 43 and higher than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tuncurry has a notably over-represented 65-74 cohort (20.2%) and an under-represented 5-14 age group (6.5%). The concentration of the 65-74 cohort is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group grew from 6.6% to 8.4%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 21.6% to 20.2% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 15.0% to 13.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to expand by 244 people (42%) from 582 to 827. In contrast, the 15 to 24 cohort shows minimal growth of just 3% (13 people).