Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Tuncurry is estimated at around 6456 people. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 6376 people, a growth of 80 individuals (1.3%). The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 6299 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, combined with an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 412 persons per square kilometer. Tuncurry's growth rate since the census is within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area's (2.8%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 87% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, an above median growth is expected for locations outside capital cities. The suburb of Tuncurry is projected to expand by 1260 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 17.1% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Tuncurry has received around 6 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 33 homes. In FY2025-26, 5 approvals have been recorded so far. The area's population decline suggests that new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering buyers good choice while new properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $367,000. This financial year, $3.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Tuncurry records significantly lower building activity, 83.0% below the regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below national averages, suggesting possible planning constraints. New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 903 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Tuncurry is projected to add 1,103 residents by 2041.

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Twelve projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include Tuncurry Village Hub, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. Relevant details are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Tuncurry are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tuncurry has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 5.7%, according to AreaSearch's aggregated statistical area data. As of September 2025, 2,206 residents are employed while the unemployment rate stands at 1.9% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Tuncurry is significantly lower at 41.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Census data shows that only 9.4% of residents work from home, with Covid-19 lockdown impacts considered. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Tuncurry has a particular specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level.

Conversely, public administration & safety shows lower representation at 4.3%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.3% while employment decreased by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, the labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Tuncurry's median income among taxpayers is $36,096. The average income in the suburb is $47,708. Nationally, this is lower than average. In Rest of NSW, the median income is $52,390 and the average is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Tuncurry would be approximately $39,294 (median) and $51,935 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Tuncurry fall between the 0th and 3rd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The earnings profile shows that 38.7% of residents earn between $400 and $799 weekly (2,498 people). This is unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Lower income households are prevalent in Tuncurry, with 47.3% earning below $800 weekly. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Tuncurry, as per the latest Census evaluation, 54.3% of dwellings were houses while 45.7% consisted of other types such as semi-detached and apartments. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry stood at 54.3%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (16.8%) or rented (29.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,322, significantly lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Tuncurry was recorded at $310, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments were substantially lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were significantly below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.9%).

School and university attendance accounts for 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 90 active transport stops in Tuncurry, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 24 individual routes, collectively offering 409 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 105 meters from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential area, most commuting is outward-bound; car use dominates at 90%, with 8% walking. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.9, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 9.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 58 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately four weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,962 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (15.4%) and mental health issues (9.5%). 49.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, lower than the 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 42.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,750 people), higher than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally in line with national rankings.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry has a cultural diversity below average, with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tuncurry, comprising 64.6%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation is higher at 3.7% in Tuncurry than the regional average of 4.6%. Maltese and Welsh representations are equal to their respective regional averages, at 0.4% and 0.5% respectively.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age was 61 years in 2021, significantly older than Rest of NSW's 43 and higher than the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group was notably over-represented at 20.1%, compared to 9.5% nationally, while the 5-14 year-olds were under-represented at 6.5%. Following the 2021 Census, Tuncurry's median age decreased by 1 year from 62 to 61, indicating a younger demographic shift. The 35-44 age group grew from 6.6% to 8.8%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 group declined from 15.0% to 13.3%, and the 65-74 age group dropped from 21.6% to 20.1%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure. The 45-54 cohort is projected to expand by 233 people (39%) from 593 to 827, while the 15-24 cohort shows minimal growth of just 3% (16 people).