Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of November 2025, Tuncurry's estimated population is around 6,452. This reflects an increase of 76 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,376. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,299 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 411 persons per square kilometer. Tuncurry's 1.2% growth positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections moving forward, locations outside capital cities are expected to have above median growth, with the Tuncurry SA2 projected to expand by 1,260 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 17.2% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Tuncurry has received around 6 dwelling approvals per year on average over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 33 homes. In FY26 so far, 5 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests new supply is meeting demand, offering buyers good choice, with new properties constructed at an average value of $367,000. This year, $3.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Tuncurry has significantly lower building activity, 83.0% below regional average per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also below national average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New development consists of 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% attached dwellings, with a growing mix of townhouses and apartments providing options across different price points. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 903 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections estimate Tuncurry will add 1,107 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified twelve projects expected to influence the region. Notable ones are Tuncurry Village Hub, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment drivers in Tuncurry are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Tuncurry has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 5.7%, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 2,206 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% higher than Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation is significantly lower at 35.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level, while public administration & safety shows lower representation at 4.3% versus the regional average of 7.5%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.3%, while employment decreased by 1.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment stands at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Tuncurry's median income among taxpayers is $36,096. The average income in the suburb is $47,708. Both figures are lower than national averages. Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest Tuncurry's median income will be approximately $39,294 and the average will be around $51,935. The 2021 Census indicates that incomes in Tuncurry fall between the 0th and 3rd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Incomes of $400 to $799 dominate, with 38.7% of residents (2,496 people) earning within this bracket, unlike regional trends where incomes in the $1,500 to $2,999 range are more prevalent at 29.9%. Lower income households are notable, with 47.3% earning below $800 weekly, suggesting affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tuncurry's latest Census data showed 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings, contrasting with Non-Metro NSW's 73.0% houses and 27.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry was 54.3%, similar to Non-Metro NSW, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.8% and rented at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,322, below the Non-Metro NSW average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Tuncurry was $310, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.1.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.9%).

School and university attendance covers 19.7% of the community, comprising 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 90 active stops in Tuncurry served by buses. These are covered by 24 routes offering 409 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average distance to nearest stop is 105 meters.

Daily service averages 58 trips across all routes, about 4 trips per stop weekly.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The private health cover rate is low at approximately 46%, covering about 2960 people, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (15.4%) and mental health issues (9.5%). About 49.7% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than the Rest of NSW's 56.6%. Residents aged 65 and over make up 42.8%, totaling approximately 2761 people, which is higher than the Rest of NSW's 36.0%. Health outcomes among seniors in Tuncurry present some challenges despite performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry, surveyed in 2016, had a predominantly Australian-born population with 88.9%. Citizenship was high at 92.3%, and English-only speakers were 96.5%. Christianity dominated religiously at 64.6%, compared to the regional average of 58.5%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher in Tuncurry at 3.7% versus the region's 4.3%. Maltese and Welsh populations were slightly lower than regional averages, at 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age is 61 years, which is significantly older than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 and higher than Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, Tuncurry has a notably over-represented cohort aged 65-74 (20.2%), while those aged 5-14 are under-represented (6.5%). This concentration in the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 35-44 grew from 6.6% to 8.4%, and those aged 25-34 increased from 6.6% to 8.2%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort declined from 21.6% to 20.2%, and the 55-64 age group dropped from 15.0% to 13.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure. The 45-54 age cohort is projected to expand by 233 people (39%), from 593 to 827. In contrast, the 15-24 age group shows minimal growth of just 1% (3 people).