Old Bar

Old Bar lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Old Bar's population is estimated at around 5,907 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 781 people (15.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,126 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,514 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024) and an additional 274 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 243 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Old Bar's growth since the 2021 census exceeded that of the SA3 area (5.5%) and the non-metro area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 91.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projecting forward, a significant population increase is forecast for Old Bar, expected to expand by 2,503 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 34.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Old Bar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Old Bar has had around 44 dwelling approvals per year on average over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 224 homes. As of FY-26, 22 approvals have been recorded. This averages out to approximately 2.7 new residents per dwelling annually between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction cost value for new homes is $498,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment.

In FY-26, $2.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Old Bar has 65.0% more construction activity per person. New building activity comprises 79.0% standalone homes and 21.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density character. There are approximately 109 people per dwelling approval in the location.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Old Bar is expected to grow by 2,021 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Old Bar has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Emerald Fields, Old Bar Growth Areas, Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing, and Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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While Old Bar retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.4%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Old Bar has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.4% as of the past year, based on AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of September 2025, there are 2,396 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Old Bar is significantly lower at 47.6%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, health care & social assistance employment levels are at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 1.3% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population figures. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 1.0%, while employment declined by 0.2% in Old Bar, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, the labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Old Bar. These projections suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Old Bar's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Old Bar had a median taxpayer income of $45,332 and an average income of $55,231 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Old Bar would be approximately $49,348 (median) and $60,124 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Old Bar all fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 28.9% of residents (1,707 people) earn within the $800 - 1,499 bracket, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Old Bar, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Old Bar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Old Bar, as per the latest Census evaluation, 82.1% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.9% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Bar stood at 46.6%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 26.1%, while rented properties made up 27.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Old Bar was $1,690, exceeding the Non-Metro NSW average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Old Bar was $358, compared to $300 in Non-Metro NSW. Nationally, Old Bar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.4% of all households, including 21.1% couples with children, 32.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.6%, consisting of 29.8% lone person households and 3.4% group households. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Educational outcomes in Old Bar fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.7% in primary, 6.6% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Old Bar has 119 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together offer 140 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to transportation, with an average distance of 119 meters to the nearest stop.

Each route runs approximately once a day on average, resulting in about one weekly trip per stop.

Health performance in Old Bar is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, with approximately 49% coverage (around 2,883 people) compared to 46.6% across the Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and asthma (9.1%).

Around 57.7% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to the Rest of NSW figure. Old Bar has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 33.1% (1,955 people), compared to 30.4% in the Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are comparable to those of the general population.

Old Bar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar had low cultural diversity, with 89.6% born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 56.8%, compared to 57.6% regionally. Top ancestry groups were Australian (31.8%), English (31.7%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal (5.2%) and French (0.6%) and Welsh (0.6%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 5.8%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively.

Old Bar ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Old Bar has a median age of 50, which exceeds the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and is well above the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 17.6% of Old Bar's population, higher than both Rest of NSW's percentage and the national figure of 9.4%. In contrast, the 15-24 cohort makes up only 7.3% of Old Bar's population. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.8% to 11.0%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.9%. Demographic projections indicate significant changes in Old Bar's age profile by 2041, with the 85+ age cohort more than doubling from 265 people to 612, an increase of 346 people (130%).