Old Bar

Old Bar lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The estimated population of the suburb of Old Bar is around 5,908 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 782 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,126 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 5,514 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 272 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 243 persons per square kilometer. Old Bar's growth rate of 15.3% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (5.5%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 91.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year for areas not covered by this data. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections forecast a significant increase, with the area expected to expand by 2,491 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 34.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Old Bar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Between FY21 and FY25, Old Bar averaged approximately 44 dwelling approvals per year. This totals around 224 homes over these five financial years. As of FY26, there have been 22 recorded approvals. Each year, an average of 2.7 new residents were associated with each dwelling approved between FY21 and FY25.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings in Old Bar is around $498,000. This fiscal year has seen approximately $2.9 million in commercial approvals registered. Comparing Old Bar to the Rest of NSW, it records 65.0% more construction activity per person. In terms of dwelling types, 79.0% are standalone homes and 21.0% are townhouses or apartments.

The area has around 109 people per dwelling approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Old Bar is projected to grow by approximately 2,018 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth.

Old Bar has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Emerald Fields, Old Bar Growth Areas, Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing, and Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

While Old Bar retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.4%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Old Bar has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 2,374 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.4% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Old Bar is at 54.2%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Census responses show that only 11.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, health care & social assistance employment levels are at 1.4 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 1.3% compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.7%, while employment declined by 0.5%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, the labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Old Bar. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Old Bar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Old Bar has a median taxpayer income of $45,332 and an average of $55,231 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ended June 2023. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated current incomes for Old Bar would be approximately $49,348 (median) and $60,124 (average) as of September 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Old Bar all fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data shows that the $800 - $1,499 bracket dominates with 28.9% of residents (1,707 people), unlike regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Old Bar, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Old Bar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Old Bar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Old Bar was higher at 46.6%, with the remaining dwellings being mortgaged (26.1%) or rented (27.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,690, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent figure in Old Bar was recorded at $358, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330 and the national figure of $375.

Old Bar has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 66.4% of all households, including 21.1% couples with children, 32.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.6%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Old Bar fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.7% in primary, 6.6% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Old Bar has 120 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These are served by 10 different routes that together offer 140 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 119 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from Old Bar, and cars remain the most popular mode of transport at 95%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 11.2% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 20 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Old Bar is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar faces substantial health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~2,884 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and asthma (9.1%), while 57.7% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 33.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,973 people), higher than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Old Bar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar showed below-average cultural diversity, with 89.6% born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 56.8%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. Top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.8%), English (31.7%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 5.2% (vs 4.6%), French at 0.6% (vs 0.4%), and Welsh at 0.6% (vs 0.5%).

Old Bar ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Old Bar has a median age of 50, which exceeds the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and is also well above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group constitutes 17.7% of Old Bar's population, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 15-24 cohort makes up 7.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is higher than the national figure of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census, the 75-84 age group has increased from 9.8% to 11.2%, while the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 10.9% to 9.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Old Bar's age profile will significantly evolve. The 85+ age cohort is projected to more than double, expanding by 336 people (126%) from 265 to 602.