Old Bar

Old Bar lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Old Bar is around 5,656, reflecting a growth of 530 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 10.3% change from the previous population count of 5,126. The current population estimate of 5,626 was derived by AreaSearch following an examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 276 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 233 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space available for further development. The suburb's population growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (3.6%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 91.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, a significant population increase is forecasted for the top quartile of locations outside capital cities, including Old Bar, with an expected expansion of 2,262 persons, reflecting a total increase of 39.5% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Old Bar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Old Bar had approximately 44 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 223 homes. As of FY-26, 37 approvals have been recorded. On average, each home built between FY-21 and FY-25 accommodated about three new residents. This has led to a supply-demand imbalance, potentially putting upward pressure on prices and increasing competition among buyers.

The average construction value of new properties is around $498,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment. In FY-26, commercial approvals totalled approximately $2.9 million, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Old Bar has 61.0% more construction activity per person, offering buyers greater choice. The area's building activity is predominantly standalone homes (79.0%) with townhouses or apartments making up the remainder (21.0%), maintaining its traditional low-density character.

There are approximately 111 people per dwelling approval in Old Bar, indicating an expanding market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Old Bar is projected to grow by around 2,232 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Old Bar has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects potentially impacting the region. Key initiatives include Emerald Fields, Old Bar Growth Areas, Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing, and Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar. The following list details projects most likely to be relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

While Old Bar retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.1%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Old Bar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.1%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2,388 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.9% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Old Bar lags at 52.9%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census responses indicate that only 11.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction, with a particularly high concentration in healthcare at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 1.3% versus Regional NSW's 5.3%.

Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.5%, alongside a 1.4% employment decline, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW where employment contracted by 1.2%, labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Old Bar's employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median taxpayer income in Old Bar was $45,332 in financial year 2023. The average income was $55,231 during the same period. This is lower than both the national median of $52,390 and average of $65,215 for Regional NSW. By March 2026, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $50,010 and the average income around $60,931, based on a 10.32% growth from financial year 2023 according to Wage Price Index data. The 2021 Census reports that incomes in Old Bar fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution shows that the $800 - $1,499 bracket is dominant with 28.9% of residents (1,634 people), differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Old Bar, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Old Bar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Old Bar, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Bar was 46.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (26.1%) or rented (27.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Old Bar was $1,690, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Old Bar was $358, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Old Bar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.4% of all households, including 21.1% couples with children, 32.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.6%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households making up 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Old Bar fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 32.9%. Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.7% in primary, 6.6% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Old Bar indicates that there are 120 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops service a mix of buses along 10 individual routes, collectively providing 140 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 119 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, with the car remaining the dominant mode of transportation at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 11.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 20 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 1 weekly trip per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Old Bar is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, both younger and older age cohorts exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is low in Old Bar, with approximately 49% of the total population (~2,761 people) having it, compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.2% of residents) and asthma (9.1%), while 57.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age population health challenges include elevated chronic condition rates. Old Bar has a higher proportion of seniors, with 34.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,940 people), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Old Bar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar was found to have a below average level of cultural diversity, with 89.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Old Bar is Christianity, which accounts for 56.8% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups represented in Old Bar are Australian (31.8%), English (31.7%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, certain ethnic groups have higher representation than average: Australian Aboriginal at 5.2% compared to 4.6%, French at 0.6% versus 0.4%, and Welsh at 0.6% compared to 0.5%.

Old Bar ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Old Bar has a median age of 50, which exceeds the Regional NSW figure of 43 and is well above the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 18.3% of Old Bar's population, higher than Regional NSW's percentage, while the 15-24 cohort makes up only 7.2%. This 65-74 concentration is notably above the national average of 9.4%. Post the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 9.8% to 11.4%, while the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 13.4% to 12.2% and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 10.9% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Old Bar's age profile, with the 85+ cohort more than doubling, expanding by 337 people (130%) from 260 to 598.