Old Bar

Old Bar lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Old Bar is around 5,908, reflecting a growth of 782 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,126. This increase represents a 15.3% rise from the previous census figure. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,514 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 272 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 243 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Old Bar's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (5.5%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 91.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate a significant increase in the top quartile of locations outside capital cities, with Old Bar expected to expand by 2,592 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 37.2% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Old Bar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Old Bar has seen around 44 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 223 homes. As of FY-26, 28 approvals have been recorded. Each year, an average of 2.8 new residents per dwelling is estimated for Old Bar between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction cost value of new homes is $498,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment.

This financial year, $2.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited commercial development activity compared to residential. Old Bar records 64.0% more construction activity per person than the rest of NSW, offering buyers greater choice. New building activity comprises 79.0% standalone homes and 21.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character. There are approximately 110 people per dwelling approval in Old Bar, indicating an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Old Bar is expected to grow by 2,198 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the area.

Old Bar has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones are Emerald Fields, Old Bar Growth Areas, Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing, and Precinct 3 Concept Plan - Old Bar. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

While Old Bar retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.5%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Old Bar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 3.5%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 2,337 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.5% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation stands at 53.0%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Census responses show that only 11.2% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Health care & social assistance has particularly high representation, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 1.3%, compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 1.0% and employment declined by 2.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where employment contracted by 1.2%, the labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Old Bar's employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Old Bar has a median taxpayer income of $45,332 and an average income of $55,231 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This is below the national average, which contrasts with Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $49,348 (median) and $60,124 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Old Bar all fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that the $800 - $1,499 bracket dominates with 28.9% of residents (1,707 people), differing from patterns across regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Old Bar, with only 83.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 12th percentile.

Old Bar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Old Bar's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Bar stood at 46.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.1% and rented ones at 27.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,690, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent was $358, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Old Bar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.4% of all households, including 21.1% couples with children, 32.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 33.6%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Old Bar fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (32.9%). Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.7% in primary, 6.6% in secondary, and 2.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Old Bar has 120 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that collectively facilitate 140 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport in Old Bar is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 119 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from this primarily residential area. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 95% of residents. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 11.2% of residents work from home, a figure that might reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 20 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Old Bar is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age cohorts show high prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is low in Old Bar at approximately 49% (~2,884 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.2% of residents) and asthma (9.1%). Conversely, 57.7% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age population health is notably challenged by high chronic condition rates. Old Bar has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 33.5% (1,979 people), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. While senior health outcomes align with national rankings, they present some challenges.

Old Bar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar had a cultural diversity score below average, with 89.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Old Bar, accounting for 56.8% of the population, slightly higher than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.8%), English (31.7%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher in Old Bar at 5.2%, compared to 4.6% regionally. French ancestry was also overrepresented at 0.6%, versus 0.4% regionally, as was Welsh ancestry at 0.6%, compared to 0.5%.

Old Bar ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Old Bar has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Regional NSW figure of 43 and well above the national average of 38. The population aged 65-74 stands at 17.7%, exceeding the Regional NSW percentage but lower than the national average of 9.5%. The 2021 Census shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.8% to 11.2%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Old Bar's age profile. The 85+ age cohort is expected to more than double, increasing by 338 people (124%) from 271 to 610.