Old Bar

Old Bar lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Old Bar's population is estimated at around 5,547. This reflects an increase of 421 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,126. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,470 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and an additional 274 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 228 persons per square kilometer. Old Bar's growth of 8.2% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (3.8%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 91.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to expand by 2,443 persons, reflecting an increase of 41.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Old Bar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Old Bar has seen approximately 41 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 209 homes. In FY-26 so far, there have been 14 recorded approvals. On average, each dwelling has accommodated about 2.9 new residents per year between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction cost for new homes is $498,000.

This financial year, commercial approvals valued at $302,000 have been registered. Old Bar records 54% more construction activity per person compared to the rest of NSW. New building activity comprises 78% standalone homes and 22% townhouses or apartments. The area has around 107 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

By 2041, Old Bar is projected to grow by approximately 2,321 residents. If current development rates persist, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Old Bar has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely to affect this region. Notable ones include Emerald Fields, Old Bar Manning Point Coastal Management Program, Old Bar Multi Dwelling Housing, and Old Bar Growth Areas. The following details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Old Bar remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Old Bar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.3%.

Over the past year, it has shown relative employment stability. As of June 2025, 2,347 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.0%, which is 0.3% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Old Bar lags behind the rest of NSW at 47.6%, compared to 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

The area has a particularly strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 1.3% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 0.1%, while labour force grew by 1.0%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.9 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.1% with a labour force growth of 0.3%, and an unemployment rise of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Old Bar. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Old Bar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.5% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Old Bar's median income among taxpayers is $45,332. The average income in the same period was $55,231. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Old Bar's median income would be approximately $51,048 as of September 2025, with the average estimated at $62,196. The 2021 Census reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Old Bar all fall between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 28.9% of locals (1,603 people) predominantly earn within the $800 - 1,499 category, unlike metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Old Bar, with only 83.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 12th percentile nationally.

Old Bar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Old Bar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 82.1% houses and 17.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 87.7% houses and 12.3% other dwellings. Home ownership in Old Bar was at 46.6%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (26.1%) or rented (27.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,690, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,430. Weekly rent median stood at $358, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Old Bar's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Old Bar has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 66.4% of all households, including 21.1% that are couples with children, 32.4% that are couples without children, and 12.5% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.6%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 3.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which matches the average for the Rest of NSW.

Educational outcomes in Old Bar fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 32.9%. Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.7% in primary, 6.6% in secondary, and 2.4% pursuing tertiary education. Old Bar Public School serves the area, enrolling 507 students as of a certain date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents (9.1) are below the regional average (13.3), indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Old Bar has 116 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 10 different routes that together facilitate 140 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is considered excellent, with residents on average being located just 119 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 20 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Old Bar is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Old Bar faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 49% (~2708 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW's 46.6% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (12.2%) and asthma (9.1%), with 57.7% reporting no medical ailments, similar to Rest of NSW's 57.7%.

As of 2020, 33.0% (1830 people) of residents are aged 65 and over, higher than Rest of NSW's 30.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Old Bar are better than the general population.

Old Bar is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Old Bar had a cultural diversity level below average, with 89.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.0% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 56.8% of Old Bar's population, compared to 57.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.8%), English (31.7%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher in Old Bar at 5.2%, compared to 5.8% regionally. French and Welsh representations were also notably higher at 0.6% each, compared to regional averages of 0.3%.

Old Bar ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Old Bar has a median age of 50, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and well above the national average of 38. The 65-74 age group makes up 17.6% of Old Bar's population, compared to the Rest of NSW and the national figure of 9.4%. Meanwhile, the 15-24 cohort is less prevalent in Old Bar at 7.3%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.8% to 11.0%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 10.9% to 9.9%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Old Bar's 85+ age cohort is projected to more than double, increasing by 363 people (149%) from 244 to 608.