Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Tuncurry's population is around 6,456 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 80 people (1.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,376 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,299 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 412 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Tuncurry's 1.3% growth since the census positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.8%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 86.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above-median population growth for regional areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to grow by 1,260 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 17.1% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tuncurry has averaged around 6 new dwelling approvals annually, totalling 33 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. With population declining over recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $273,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. There have also been $3.4 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating limited commercial development focus.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Tuncurry has significantly less development activity (83.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. This activity is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and pointing to possible planning constraints. New building activity shows 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. The estimated count of 984 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Tuncurry adding 1,103 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects and planning initiatives. In total 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Tuncurry Village Hub, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section, with the below list detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Tuncurry faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Tuncurry has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 5.4%. As of December 2025, 2,180 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.5% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (40.6% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 9.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in accommodation & food, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. In contrast, public administration & safety employs just 4.3% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.1% combined with employment decreasing by 1.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Tuncurry. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Tuncurry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Tuncurry SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $38,018 with the average level standing at $49,287. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $41,386 (median) and $53,654 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Tuncurry all fall between the 0th and 3rd percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the predominant cohort spans 38.7% of locals (2,498 people) in the $400 - 799 category, unlike trends in the region where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. The prevalence of lower-income residents (47.3% under $800/week) indicates constrained household budgets across much of the district. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Tuncurry, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Tuncurry was higher than that of Regional NSW, at 54.3%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (16.8%) or rented (29.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,322, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $310, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 56.8% of all households, comprising 11.9% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size of 1.9 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (10.0%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.9%).

School and university attendance encompasses 19.7% of the community. This includes 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 90 active transport stops operating within Tuncurry comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 24 individual routes, collectively providing 409 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 105 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 8% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average. A relatively low 9.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 58 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Tuncurry, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2,969 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 15.4 and 9.5% of residents, respectively, while 49.7% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 42.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,747 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Tuncurry is Christianity, which makes up 64.6% of the population. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Tuncurry are English, comprising 33.7% of the population, Australian, comprising 33.5% of the population, and Irish, comprising 8.5% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 3.7% of Tuncurry (vs 4.6% regionally), Maltese at 0.4% (vs 0.4%) and Welsh at 0.5% (vs 0.5%).

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age of 61 years stands materially older than Regional NSW's 43 and is significantly higher than the 38-year national average. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 75 - 84 cohort is notably over-represented (15.8% locally), while 5 - 14 year-olds are under-represented (6.5%). This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Following the 2021 Census, the median age has decreased by 1.0 years from 62 to 61, indicating a younger demographic shift. In particular, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 6.6% to 8.8% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 15.0% to 13.3% and the 65 to 74 group dropped from 21.6% to 20.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure. The 45 to 54 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, expanding by 235 people (40%) from 592 to 828. In contrast, the 15 to 24 cohort shows minimal growth of just 3% (13 people).