Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Tuncurry's population was 6,376 as of 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it is estimated to be around 6,331, a decrease of 45 people (0.7%). This decline is inferred from ABS' June 2024 estimate of 6,303 and 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density in Nov 2025 was 404 persons per square kilometer. While Tuncurry's population decreased by 0.7% since the Census, the SA3 area grew by 2.1%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 86.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, regional areas are projected to have above median population growth. The area is expected to grow by 1,260 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 19.4% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tuncurry averaged approximately 6 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling 33 homes. As of FY26, 4 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $273,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers.

This financial year has seen $3.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to the Rest of NSW, where Tuncurry shows significantly less development activity (83.0% below regional average per person). The area's limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, reflecting its maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options across price brackets. With an estimated 984 people per dwelling approval, Tuncurry maintains a quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections estimate an addition of 1,228 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified thirteen projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are Tuncurry Village Hub Redevelopment, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Tuncurry faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Tuncurry's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.7% as of September 2025.

There were 2,206 residents employed at this time, with an unemployment rate 1.9% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 35.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Notably, accommodation & food employed 1.8 times the regional average.

In contrast, public administration & safety employed only 4.3% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 7.5%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.3%, while employment decreased by 1.1%, causing a rise in unemployment rate of 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Tuncurry SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $36,096 and an average income of $47,708. This is lower than the national average of $49,459 and Rest of NSW's average of $62,998. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 12.61%, median income is estimated at approximately $40,648 and average income at $53,724. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Tuncurry are among the lowest nationally, falling between the 0th and 3rd percentiles. The earnings profile shows 38.7% of locals (2,450 people) earn between $400 - $799 per week, unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. A significant proportion, 47.3%, earn less than $800 per week, suggesting constrained household budgets. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tuncurry's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 73.0% houses and 27.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry was at 54.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.8% and rented ones at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,322, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent in Tuncurry was $310, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly lower at $1,863 and rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.1.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 32.9%.

School and university attendance comprises 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Tuncurry shows 83 active public transport stops. These are mixed-use bus stops serviced by 24 routes. Weekly passenger trips total 426.

Residential accessibility to these stops is excellent, with residents located an average of 106 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 60 trips daily across all routes, equating to about five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 46%, covering around 2912 people, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 15.4% of residents) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 49.7% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 56.6% in the Rest of NSW. Tuncurry has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 42.8% or 2710 people, compared to 36.0% in the Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are better than those of the general population.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry, as per the census data from 2nd August 2016, exhibited a lower than average cultural diversity. The population born in Australia constituted 88.9%, with 92.3% being citizens and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, accounting for 64.6% of Tuncurry's population, compared to 58.5% across the rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%). Some notable differences existed in the representation of certain ethnicities: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 3.7% (regional average: 4.3%), Maltese at 0.4% (regional average: 0.5%), and Welsh at 0.5% (regional average: 0.4%).

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age was 61 years in the last census, significantly higher than Rest of NSW's 43 and Australia's national average of 38. The 65-74 age group made up 20.2% of Tuncurry's population, compared to just 9.4% nationally and 13.9% in the Rest of NSW. Meanwhile, the 5-14 age group was under-represented at 6.5%. Post-2021 Census, the 35-44 age group grew from 6.6% to 8.4%, and the 25-34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.2%. However, the 65-74 age group declined from 21.6% to 20.2%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 15.0% to 13.7%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts. The 45-54 age cohort is expected to expand by 246 people (42%), growing from 581 to 828. Conversely, the 15-24 cohort shows minimal growth of just 3% (15 people).