Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Tuncurry's population was 6,376 according to the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it is estimated at around 6,331, a decrease of 45 people (0.7%). This decline is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 6,303 in June 2024 and the addition of 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density as of Nov 2025 is approximately 404 persons per square kilometer. In contrast, the SA3 area experienced a 2.1% growth between the 2021 Census and June 2024, driven primarily by interstate migration contributing about 86.8% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, regional areas are projected to have above median population growth. For this area, an increase of 1,260 persons is projected by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 19.4% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tuncurry has averaged approximately 6 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 33 homes. In fiscal year 2026 so far, 4 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $367,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers.

There have been $3.4 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to the rest of NSW, where Tuncurry has significantly less development activity (83.0% below the regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this activity is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity comprises 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of medium-density options across different price brackets. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 984 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Tuncurry is projected to add 1,228 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Tuncurry Village Hub Redevelopment, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Tuncurry faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Tuncurry has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent.

The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 5.4%. Employment stability over the past year is relatively high. There were 2,228 residents employed by June 2025, with an unemployment rate of 1.8% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is significantly lower at 35.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

Leading industries include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Tuncurry specializes in accommodation & food with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. Public administration & safety is under-represented at 4.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's 7.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3% while labour force grew by 1.0%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1%, labour force grow by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Tuncurry SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $36,096 and an average of $47,708 in the financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than national averages, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $40,648 (median) and $53,724 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census showed that incomes in Tuncurry fell within the 0th to 3rd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income distribution data indicated that the $400-$799 bracket dominated with 38.7% of residents (2,450 people), unlike metropolitan regions where the $1,500-$2,999 bracket dominated at 29.9%. Economic circumstances suggested widespread financial pressure, with 47.3% of households having weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability was severely strained, with only 83.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Tuncurry, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted on 28 August 2016, comprised 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure of 73.0% houses and 27.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry was at 54.3%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (16.8%) or rented (29.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,322, well below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $310, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863 as of 2016 data, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.1.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with a rate of 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.3% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 32.9%.

School and university attendance encompasses 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 83 operational transit stops in Tuncurry. These are served by a variety of bus routes, totaling 24 individual lines that facilitate 426 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of transport is deemed excellent, with residents situated on average 106 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 60 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 5 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Tuncurry, with a range of health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~2912 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 15.4% and 9.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 49.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 56.6% across Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 42.8% (2710 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 36.0%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry, as per the census data from June 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 64.6% of Tuncurry's population, compared to 58.5% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notable differences existed in the representation of certain ethnicities: Australian Aboriginal was higher at 3.7% in Tuncurry compared to 4.3% regionally, Maltese at 0.4% versus 0.5%, and Welsh at 0.5% against 0.4%.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age is 61 years, which is significantly higher than Rest of NSW's 43 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Tuncurry at 20.2%, while the 5-14 age group is under-represented at 6.5%. This concentration of the 65-74 cohort is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 6.6% to 8.4%, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 21.6% to 20.2%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 15.0% to 13.7%. By 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to expand by 246 people (42%) from 581 to 828. In contrast, the 15 to 24 cohort shows minimal growth of just 3% (15 people).