Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Tuncurry's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 6,233, a decrease of 143 people (2.2%) since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 6,376. This decline is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,229 as of June 2025 and an additional 38 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is 397 persons per square kilometer. Interstate migration contributed approximately 77.8% of overall population gains in recent periods. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, regional areas are projected to have above median population growth, with the area expected to grow by 1,066 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 17.0% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tuncurry averaged approximately six new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 33 homes. As of FY26, 12 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $273,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers.

This financial year has seen $3.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to the Rest of NSW, where Tuncurry has significantly less development activity (83.0% below regional average per person). The area's low new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, with building activity showing 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding the range of medium-density options. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 984 people, reflecting its quiet development environment. Future projections estimate Tuncurry to add 1,062 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Future projections show Tuncurry adding 1,062 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Twelve projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include Tuncurry Village Hub, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Tuncurry faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Tuncurry has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent, and the unemployment rate is 5.4%. As of December 2025, 2180 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate at 7.4%, higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation stands at 40.8% compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census data shows that only 9.4% of residents work from home. Key industries are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade. Accommodation & food has notable concentration with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Public administration & safety employs just 4.3% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 7.5%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force decreased by 1.1%, with employment decreasing by 1.9%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.8 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Tuncurry's local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the area's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Tuncurry SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $38,018. The average income stood at $49,287. This was below the national average and compared to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $41,941 for median income and $54,373 for average income as of March 2026. Census data reveals household, family, and personal incomes in Tuncurry all fall between the 0th and 3rd percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 38.7% of locals (2,412 people) predominantly earn within the $400 - $799 category, unlike trends in the region where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. The prevalence of lower-income residents indicates constrained household budgets across much of the district. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tuncurry's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry stood at 54.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.8% and rented ones at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,322, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Tuncurry was $310, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% composed of couples with children, 34.0% consisting of couples without children, and 10.1% made up of single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 1.9 people, smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This indicates a need for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.9%).

School attendance encompasses 19.7% of the community, with 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 90 active stops operating within Tuncurry, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 24 individual routes, collectively providing 409 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 105 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 90%, with 8% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 9.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 58 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at 46% of the total population (~2867 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (15.4%) and mental health issues (9.5%), while 49.7% report no medical ailments, lower than the 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with high chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 43.5% (2714 people) compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors align broadly with national rankings.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry had a cultural diversity index below average, with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the primary religion in Tuncurry, comprising 64.6% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation stood at 3.7%, higher than the regional average of 4.6%. Maltese and Welsh populations were also notably present at 0.4% each, matching their respective regional percentages.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age was 61 years in 2021, significantly older than Regional NSW's 43 and Australia's national average of 38. The 75-84 age group made up 16.5% of Tuncurry's population, notably higher than Regional NSW's average and well above the national average of 6.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group was under-represented at 6.5%. Post-2021 Census, the 35-44 age group grew from 6.6% to 8.6%, while the 25-34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.0%. However, the 55-64 group declined from 15.0% to 13.4% and the 65-74 age group dropped from 21.6% to 20.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure, with the 45-54 cohort expected to expand by 229 people (40%) from 570 to 800. In contrast, the 15-24 age group is projected to grow minimally by just 3% (14 people).