Tuncurry
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Tuncurry's population was approximately 6,376 people according to the 2021 Census. By November 2025, it is estimated around 6,331, reflecting a decrease of 45 people (0.7%) since the census. This decline is inferred from ABS estimates showing 6,303 residents in June 2024 and an additional 35 validated new addresses post-census. The population density was approximately 404 persons per square kilometer as of November 2025. While Tuncurry saw a 0.7% decrease since the census, its SA3 area experienced a 2.1% growth, indicating differing trends within the region. Interstate migration contributed about 86.8% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using a 2021 base year. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, regional areas nationally are projected to have above median population growth. The area is expected to grow by 1,260 persons by 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting a total increase of 19.4% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tuncurry averaged approximately six new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 33 homes. As of FY26, four approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $273,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers.

This financial year has seen $3.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to the Rest of NSW, where Tuncurry shows 83.0% less development activity per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, with activity also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing opportunities across price brackets. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 984 people, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections suggest Tuncurry will add 1,228 residents by 2041.

If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Tuncurry has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are Tuncurry Village Hub Redevelopment, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Tuncurry faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Tuncurry's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 5.4% as of June 2025.

Over the past year, employment has shown stability. As of June 2025, 2,228 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 7.2%, higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Tuncurry is lower at 35.7% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade.

Tuncurry specializes in accommodation & food, with an employment share 1.8 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety is under-represented at 4.3% compared to Rest of NSW's 7.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3%, labour force grew by 1.0%, leading to a 0.7 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contraction of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Tuncurry's median taxpayer income was $36,096 and average income was $47,708 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $40,648 (median) and $53,724 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, Tuncurry's household, family, and personal incomes fell within the 1st to 4th percentiles nationally. The income distribution showed that 38.7% of residents (2,450 people) earned between $400 and $799 weekly, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket dominated at 29.9%. Economic pressures were evident, with 47.3% of households having modest weekly budgets below $800. Housing affordability was severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Tuncurry, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, consisted of 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 73.0% houses and 27.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry was at 54.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.8% and rented ones at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,322, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. Median weekly rent in Tuncurry was $310, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% couples with children, 34.0% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households making up 40.6% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 1.9 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.1.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate stands at 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 9.8% and certificates for 32.9%.

School and university attendance comprises 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education. Tuncurry's five schools have a combined enrollment of 1,154 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 959) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is split between one primary and four secondary institutions. The area serves as an education hub with 18.2 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 10.4, attracting students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Tuncurry shows 83 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 24 different routes that together facilitate 426 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 106 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 60 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~2,912 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 15.4% of residents) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 49.7% report no medical ailments compared to 56.6% in Rest of NSW. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 42.8% (2,710 people), higher than the 36.0% in Rest of NSW. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but better than the general population's metrics.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity level below average. Its population comprised 88.9% born in Australia, with 92.3% being citizens and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 64.6%, compared to 58.5% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher in Tuncurry at 3.7% compared to the regional average of 4.3%. Maltese and Welsh populations also showed slight variations, with 0.4% each in Tuncurry versus 0.5% and 0.4% regionally respectively.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age was recorded as 61 years in the 2021 Census, which is significantly higher than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 age cohort made up 20.2% of Tuncurry's population, notably higher than the Rest of NSW average and well above the national average of 9.4%. Conversely, the 5 - 14 age group was under-represented at 6.5%. Comparing the 2016 Census to the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group grew from 6.6% to 8.4%, and the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 6.6% to 8.2%. Meanwhile, the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 21.6% to 20.2%, and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 15.0% to 13.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure, with the 45 to 54 cohort expected to expand by 246 people (42%) from 581 to 828. In contrast, the 15 to 24 cohort is projected to show minimal growth of just 3% (15 people).