Tuncurry
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Tuncurry's population was around 6,376 as of Aug 2021, according to the Census. By June 2024, it had decreased to an estimated resident population of 6,302, a drop of 46 people (0.7%). This decrease is attributed to 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density was 404 persons per square kilometer. Meanwhile, the SA3 area experienced a 1.9% growth during this period. Interstate migration contributed approximately 86.8% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. These projections show an above median population growth nationally for regional areas. Tuncurry is expected to grow by 1,260 persons to 2041, reflecting a 19.4% increase over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tuncurry has averaged approximately six new dwelling approvals annually. Development approval data is provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, totalling 33 approvals across the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25, with two approvals so far in FY26. The area's population decline has resulted in adequate development activity relative to its size, which may be beneficial for buyers. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $367,000, below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options.

This financial year, $3.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tuncurry shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 83.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average, which may reinforce demand and pricing for existing homes. This is also below the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% medium and high-density housing, offering a mix of opportunities across price brackets. The estimated population density, with 984 people per dwelling approval, reflects its quiet development environment.

Looking ahead, Tuncurry is projected to grow by 1,229 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth in the future.

Tuncurry has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are Tuncurry Village Hub Redevelopment, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section. Relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Tuncurry faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Tuncurry has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented here, with an unemployment rate of 5.4% as of June 2025.

This rate is 1.8% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. The workforce participation in Tuncurry lags significantly at 35.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. As of June 2025, 2,228 residents are employed. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, accommodation & food, and retail trade.

Notably, the area has a particular specialization in accommodation & food, with an employment share of 1.8 times the regional level. However, public administration & safety has limited presence here, with only 4.3% of employment compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels in Tuncurry increased by 0.3%, while labour force increased by 1.0%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.1% during the same period. State-level data to Sep-25 shows that NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind the national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 indicate that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Tuncurry's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In financial year 2022, Tuncurry's median income among taxpayers was $36,096. The average income stood at $47,708. Both figures were below the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 for Rest of NSW respectively. As of March 2025, estimated median and average incomes in Tuncurry are approximately $39,922 and $52,765, based on a 10.6% growth since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Tuncurry fall between the 1st and 4th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 38.7% of locals (2,449 people) with incomes ranging from $400 to $799 weekly, unlike surrounding regions where 29.9% earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. The concentration of 47.3% in sub-$800 weekly brackets highlights economic challenges facing a significant portion of the community. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Tuncurry's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 73.0% houses and 27.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry stood at 54.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.8% and rented ones at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,322, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent in Tuncurry was $310, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8 percent of all households, including 11.9 percent that are couples with children, 34.0 percent that are couples without children, and 10.1 percent that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.2 percent, with lone person households at 40.6 percent and group households comprising 2.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.1.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 1.3% and graduate diplomas at 1.2%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 32.9%.

School and university attendance comprises 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education. Tuncurry's five schools have a combined enrolment reaching 1,154 students as of the latest data available. The area functions as an education hub with 18.2 school places per 100 residents - significantly higher than the regional average of 10.4 - attracting students from surrounding communities. Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between one primary and four secondary institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 83 active transport stops in Tuncurry, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 24 individual routes, collectively facilitating 426 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically situated 106 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 60 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately five weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. The private health cover rate is notably low at approximately 46%, covering around 2911 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent conditions in the area, impacting 15.4% and 9.5% of residents respectively. However, 49.7% of residents report being free from medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW average of 56.6%. The population aged 65 and over stands at 42.8%, comprising approximately 2710 people, which is higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 36.0%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Tuncurry are comparable to those of the general population.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry had a cultural diversity level below average, with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion was Christianity, which accounted for 64.6% of the population compared to 58.5% across Rest of NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented at 3.7%, Maltese at 0.4%, and Welsh at 0.5%.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age is 61 years, notably higher than Rest of NSW's 43 and the national average of 38. Locally, the 65-74 age group comprises 20.2%, significantly more than Rest of NSW's 9.4%. Conversely, those aged 5-14 make up only 6.5% in Tuncurry. Post-2021 Census, the 35-44 age group increased from 6.6% to 8.4%, while the 25-34 cohort rose from 6.6% to 8.2%. Meanwhile, the 65-74 group decreased from 21.6% to 20.2% and the 55-64 age group fell from 15.0% to 13.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant growth in Tuncurry's 45-54 cohort, expanding by 246 people (42%) from 581 to 828. In contrast, the 15-24 age group is projected to grow minimally by just 3% (15 people).