Tuncurry

Population growth drivers in Tuncurry are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Tuncurry's population, according to AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 6,456 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 80 people, a 1.3% rise since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,376. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,299 in June 2024 and an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 412 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Tuncurry's 1.3% growth since census compares favorably with its SA3 area (2.8%), showing competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 86.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, the area is expected to grow by 1,260 persons to 2041, reflecting a 17.1% increase over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Tuncurry is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Tuncurry has averaged approximately 6 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 33 homes. As of FY26, 5 approvals have been recorded. The population has declined in recent years, yet housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $273,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers.

This financial year, there have been $3.4 million in commercial approvals, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to the Rest of NSW, where Tuncurry has significantly less development activity (83.0% below regional average per person). The new supply supports stronger demand and values for established homes due to its limited nature. This activity is also below national averages, suggesting possible planning constraints. In terms of building types, 60.0% are detached dwellings and 40.0% are townhouses or apartments, providing a mix of medium-density options across price brackets. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 984 people, reflecting the area's quiet development environment.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tuncurry is projected to add 1,103 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Tuncurry has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified twelve projects that could impact the area's performance due to changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. These include Tuncurry Village Hub, 15 Manning Street Mixed-Use Development, 1 Peel Street Residential Development, and The Lakes Way Road Upgrade - Boolambayte Section, among others listed below as being most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Tuncurry faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Tuncurry's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate stands at 5.7%. As of September 2025, 2,206 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 1.9% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, indicating a lower workforce participation rate (41.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%).

According to Census responses, only 9.4% of residents work from home. The key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, accommodation & food services, and retail trade. Notably, the area has a high concentration in accommodation & food services, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average. Conversely, public administration & safety employs only 4.3% of local workers, lower than Rest of NSW's 7.5%.

The area seems to offer limited local employment opportunities, as seen in the difference between Census working population and resident population numbers. Between September 2024 and September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.3%, while employment decreased by 1.1%, leading to a rise of 1.4 percentage points in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment rate. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, applying these projections to Tuncurry's specific employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data shows Tuncurry SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $38,018 and an average of $49,287 in financial year 2023. These figures are below national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 for Rest of NSW respectively. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest median income will be approximately $41,386 and average $53,654. Census data indicates Tuncurry's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 0th and 3rd percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows 38.7% of locals (2,498 people) earn between $400 - $799 per week, unlike regional trends where 29.9% earn between $1,500 - $2,999. A significant proportion, 47.3%, earn less than $800/week, suggesting constrained household budgets. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Tuncurry displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Tuncurry, as evaluated at the latest Census held on 28 August 2016, comprised 54.3% houses and 45.7% other dwellings including semi-detached, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tuncurry stood at 54.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 16.8% and rented dwellings at 29.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,322, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Tuncurry was recorded at $310, compared to Non-Metro NSW's figure of $330. Nationally, Tuncurry's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Tuncurry features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.8% of all households, including 11.9% that are couples with children, 34.0% that are couples without children, and 10.1% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.2%, with lone person households at 40.6% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 1.9 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Tuncurry faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.9%).

School and university attendance covers 19.7% of the community, including 7.2% in primary education, 5.9% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tuncurry has 90 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 24 different routes that collectively facilitate 409 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 105 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuting in Tuncurry is outward-bound. Cars remain the primary mode of transport for 90% of residents, while 8% walk to their destinations. On average, there are 0.9 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 9.4% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 58 trips per day, resulting in approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Tuncurry is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Tuncurry faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% of the total population (around 2,969 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (15.4%) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 49.7% report no medical ailments, lower than the 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to higher chronic condition rates. Tuncurry has a larger elderly population, with 42.6% aged 65 and over (2,747 people), compared to 23.4% in Rest of NSW. While senior health outcomes align with national rankings, they present specific challenges.

Tuncurry is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tuncurry's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.9% of its population born in Australia, 92.3% being citizens, and 96.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Tuncurry, comprising 64.6% of people, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three represented ancestry groups are English (33.7%), Australian (33.5%), and Irish (8.5%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal population is overrepresented at 3.7%, while Maltese and Welsh populations remain consistent with regional averages at 0.4% and 0.5% respectively.

Tuncurry ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Tuncurry's median age in 2021 was 61 years, which is significantly older than Rest of NSW's 43 and higher than Australia's national average of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, Tuncurry had a notably over-represented cohort aged 75-84 (15.8% locally) while those aged 5-14 were under-represented (6.5%). This concentration in the 75-84 age group was well above the national average of 6.1%. Following the 2021 Census, Tuncurry's median age decreased by 1 year from 62 to 61, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Specifically, the population aged 35 to 44 grew from 6.6% to 8.8%, while those aged 25 to 34 increased from 6.6% to 8.4%. Conversely, the cohort aged 55 to 64 declined from 15.0% to 13.3% and those aged 65 to 74 dropped from 21.6% to 20.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Tuncurry's age structure. The cohort aged 45 to 54 is projected to expand notably by 235 people (40%), from 592 to 828. In contrast, the cohort aged 15 to 24 shows minimal growth of just 3%, adding 13 people.