Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

AreaSearch indicates that the population of Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds reached approximately 7,494 by May 2026. Compared with the 6,988 residents documented during the 2021 Census, this represents an expansion of 506 individuals (7.2%). This shift is calculated utilizing the ABS June 2025 estimated resident population of 7,407 alongside 105 validated new addresses registered post-census. The resulting population density stands at 10.0 persons per square kilometer, indicating low density living. The 7.2% rate of expansion since the 2021 census outpaced both the broader SA3 region (2.9%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning the locality as a regional leader in growth. Relocation from other states was the primary driver of this demographic growth, accounting for roughly 82.0% of the population increase, although natural increases and international relocation also made positive contributions.

Projections published in 2024 by the ABS and Geoscience Australia, utilizing 2022 as a baseline, are used for SA2 areas. For localities without this coverage, figures are derived from the 2022 NSW State Government projections which use 2021 as their baseline. Cohort growth rates by age group from these models are extended to all regions for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Looking at future patterns, the locality is set to experience population growth exceeding the median for regional areas across the nation. Based on the most recent annual ERP data, the population is anticipated to expand by 1,210 residents by 2041, representing a cumulative rise of 15.0% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Approvals for new dwellings in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds have run at a yearly average of 54, accumulating to 274 residences over the previous 5 financial years. Thus far during FY-26157 approvals have been logged. The ratio of population growth to new construction stood at 2.2 people moving to the area for every completed dwelling over the 5 financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, pointing to healthy underlying demand. The average construction cost of these new residences is $319,000. In addition, commercial building approvals have reached $289,000 during the current financial year, highlighting the predominantly residential character of the locality.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds shows slightly elevated development activity relative to the Rest of NSW, tracking at 29.0% above the regional per capita benchmark over the 5 year period, which supports local property valuations while offering options to purchasers, even though construction momentum has moderated of late. The composition of new builds is heavily skewed towards detached houses at 95.0%, with apartments or townhouses representing the remaining 5.0%, reinforcing the established low-density footprint centered on family accommodation. The ratio of residents to each residential building approval stands at approximately 171, pointing to a growing market.

Projections indicate that the population of Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds will increase by 1,123 residents by 2041, measured from the most recent quarterly estimate by AreaSearch. Given current building trends, the incoming supply of housing is expected to satisfy demand, creating favorable buyer dynamics and potentially enabling population gains to outpace current forecasts.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, planning schemes, and major projects represent key influences on regional performance. AreaSearch has tracked a total of 15 projects expected to influence the locality. Significant developments include the Palm Lake Resort Forster Lakes, the North Tuncurry Sustainable Community Development, the Lower Mid North Coast Health Service Project - Forster-Tuncurry Health Facility, and the Forster and Old Bar New Ambulance Stations.

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While Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.8%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

A low unemployment rate of 3.8% characterizes the workforce of Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds, which features strong representation from building trades. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 3,032, and the local jobless rate sat 0.3% below the Regional NSW average of 4.1%. However, participation in the labor market is low, standing at 49.6% compared to 60.6% across Regional NSW. Census data indicates that 20.3% of the local workforce operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by pandemic-related movement restrictions.

The largest sectors of employment for local residents are healthcare & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The local labor force is highly specialized in construction, with its employment share reaching 1.6 times the regional average. Conversely, public administration & safety accounts for only 4.8% of the local workforce, which is lower than the 7.5% average for Regional NSW. A comparison of the Census working population against the resident population suggests a lack of local job opportunities within the immediate area.

AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics shows that over the 12-month period, the local labor force contracted by 3.4% and total employment fell by 3.6%, leading to a 0.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. This compares to Regional NSW, which saw employment fall by 0.9%, the labor force contract by 0.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.5 percentage points. Projections published in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia help illustrate potential long-term trends for Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds. These national projections, spanning five and ten-year horizons, have been modeled against local employment distributions to project future patterns. Across the nation, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary. Projecting these trends onto the occupational profile of Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds indicates a local employment expansion of 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, representing a simple weighted extrapolation that does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to postcode-level ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023, the median taxpayer income in the Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds SA2 was $42,385, with an average of $53,532. These amounts are below the national benchmarks, and compare to a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for March 2026 are approximately $46,759 for median income and $59,057 for average income. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in the area fell between the 8th and 9th national percentiles. Income distribution figures show that the largest local segment, comprising 27.4% of residents (2,053 people), falls into the $800 - 1,499 weekly range, whereas the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is the largest in metropolitan areas at 29.9%. Post-housing income retention stands at 86.1%, placing the area in the 12th national percentile.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Residential structures in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds at the time of the latest Census consisted of 92.4% detached houses and 7.7% other dwelling types including semi-detached options and apartments, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other options across Regional NSW. Home ownership was high relative to regional averages, standing at 54.3%, while mortgaged properties accounted for 31.3% and rented properties made up 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,500 was lower than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, whereas weekly rent was higher at $350 compared to the Regional NSW average of $330. Nationally, local mortgage commitments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are below the national median of $375.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of local households at 71.2%, which includes 21.4% couples raising children, 38.6% couples without children, and 10.4% single-parent homes. The remaining 28.8% consists of non-family households, with single-person households representing 25.9% and group living situations accounting for 3.0%. The median household size is 2.3 individuals, slightly below the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

Educational profiles in the area show that 18.4% of residents hold university qualifications, which is lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Among these higher education graduates, bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.5% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Vocational and technical training is common, with 45.0% of the population aged 15 and over holding qualification credentials, including advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 34.1%.

Enrolment in education is high, with 25.5% of the local population engaged in study. This includes 10.6% attending primary schools, 8.1% in high schools, and 1.5% enrolled in higher education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport infrastructure includes 242 bus stops in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds. These stops are served by 44 routes that provide a total of 398 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a residence to the nearest transport stop is 239 meters, indicating good accessibility. As a residential community, most workers travel outside the area, with private cars remaining the primary mode of travel at 92%, and walking accounting for 6%. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.6 cars per dwelling. Census data from 2021 indicates that 20.3% of residents worked from home, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 restrictions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 56 trips per day, which translates to approximately 1 weekly trip per transport stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest stops to the central point of the area.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds's residents are relatively healthy in comparison to broader Australia with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Assessments of mortality rates and chronic illness indicators show that health profiles in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds are similar to national benchmarks, with standard patterns of common medical conditions across all age cohorts. The rate of private health insurance is low at approximately 47% of residents (~3,492 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis, affecting 12.3% of residents, and mental health conditions, affecting 8.4%. Meanwhile, 61.5% of residents reported having no long-term health conditions, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Chronic conditions are elevated among the working-age population. Residents aged 65 and over make up 32.4% of the population (2,425 people), which is higher than the Regional NSW average of 23.4%. Health outcomes among older residents rank higher nationally than those of the general population.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Demographic statistics show lower levels of cultural diversity, with citizens making up 88.1% of the population, Australian-born residents accounting for 86.8%, and English-only speakers at home representing 97.1%. Christianity is the largest religion, practiced by 50.3% of residents. The most distinct religious overrepresentation is Judaism, which accounts for 0.3% of the local population, compared to 0.1% across Regional NSW.

English ancestry was reported by 33.0% of the population, followed by Australian ancestry at 31.6%, and Irish ancestry at 8.6%. There are also specific ethnic cohorts that exceed regional averages, such as Welsh ancestry at 0.7% (compared to 0.5% regionally), Maltese ancestry at 0.7% (compared to 0.4%), and Scottish ancestry at 8.6% (compared to 8.0%).

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age of 53 in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds is higher than the Regional NSW median of 43 and the national average of 38. The area has a larger concentration of residents aged 65 - 74 (19.6%) but fewer residents aged 25 - 34 (6.0%) compared to Regional NSW. The proportion of residents aged 65 - 74 is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 cohort grew from 8.2% to 10.6% of the population, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 7.5% to 9.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 group decreased from 19.1% to 16.8%, and the 45 to 54 group fell from 12.4% to 11.1%. Looking to 2041, projections suggest shifts in the local age structure, with the 45 to 54 group expected to increase by 25% (209 people) to reach 1,041 from 831, while the 5 to 14 cohort is projected to grow by 4% (28 people).