Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds' population is approximately 7,228 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 240 people, a 3.4% rise from the 2021 Census count of 6,988. The ABS estimated resident population in June 2024 was 7,219, with an additional 51 validated new addresses since the Census date contributing to this growth. This results in a population density of 9.6 persons per square kilometer. Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds' population growth of 3.4% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area's 2.1%, indicating it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration accounted for approximately 69.5% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Demographic trends project an above median population growth for national regional areas, with Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds expected to grow by 1,269 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 17.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has averaged approximately 54 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 274 homes. As of FY-26, 12 approvals have been recorded. On average, 2.1 people moved to the area per new home constructed between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating strong demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $319,000.

This financial year has seen $289,000 in commercial development approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has slightly more development, with 31.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. However, construction activity has recently eased.

The majority of new development consists of detached houses (95.0%), with townhouses or apartments making up the remaining 5.0%, maintaining the area's traditional low-density character focused on family homes. The location has approximately 168 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. By 2041, Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds is projected to grow by 1,260 residents, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 15 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones are Palm Lake Resort Forster Lakes, North Tuncurry Sustainable Community Development, Forster Tuncurry Health Facility (Lower Mid North Coast Health Service Project), and Forster and Old Bar New Ambulance Stations. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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While Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.9%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has a skilled workforce with a notable representation in the construction sector. Its unemployment rate is 3.9%.

As of September 2025, there are 3,132 residents employed, with an unemployment rate aligned to Rest of NSW's 3.8%. However, workforce participation lags at 45.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area specializes in construction, employing 1.6 times the regional level.

Public administration & safety employs only 4.8% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 7.5%. Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force increased by 0.3%, while employment decreased by 0.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5% and unemployment rise by 0.4%. Statewide in NSW, as of 25-November-25, employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, favourable to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $39,905 and an average of $51,621 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. This was below the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $44,937 (median) and $58,130 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds all fell between the 8th and 9th percentiles nationally. The distribution data showed that the predominant cohort was 27.4% of locals (1,980 people) in the $800 - 1,499 income category, contrasting with metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket led at 29.9%. After housing costs, 86.1% of income remained, ranking at only the 12th percentile nationally.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.4% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 7.7% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure of 73.0% houses and 27.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds stood at 54.3%, mirroring the Non-Metro NSW figure, while mortgaged properties accounted for 31.3% and rented dwellings made up 14.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,500, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,517. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $350, slightly higher than Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also below the national figure of $375.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 71.2% of all households, consisting of 21.4% couples with children, 38.6% couples without children, and 10.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 28.8%, with lone person households at 25.9% and group households comprising 3.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.1.

Educational outcomes in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 45.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 34.1%. Educational participation is high, with 25.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.6% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 1.5% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates that there are currently 232 active transport stops operating within Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds. These stops primarily consist of bus services. They are serviced by a total of 48 individual routes, collectively providing 427 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as good, with residents typically located approximately 235 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 61 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly one weekly trip per individual stop.

Health performance in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds faces significant health challenges. Common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is low at approximately 46% of the total population (~3,353 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (12.3%) and mental health issues (8.4%). A higher proportion of residents (61.5%) report being completely clear of medical ailments than in Rest of NSW (56.6%). The area has a lower percentage of seniors aged 65 and over (30.9%, or 2,234 people) compared to Rest of NSW (36.0%). Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average and better than the general population in health metrics.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds, as per the census on 27 June 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 88.1% of its population being citizens, 86.8% born in Australia, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 50.3%. Judaism, however, was overrepresented at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.0%), Australian (31.6%), and Irish (8.6%). Notable differences existed in Welsh (0.7% vs regional 0.4%), Maltese (0.7% vs 0.5%), and Scottish (8.6% vs 8.0%) groups.

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has a median age of 53, which is considerably higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and substantially exceeds the national norm of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds has a higher concentration of residents aged 65-74 (19.3%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (6.4%). This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Since the Census conducted on Tuesday, 10 August 2021, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 7.5% to 9.2%, while the population aged 75 to 84 increased from 8.2% to 9.8%. Conversely, the population aged 55 to 64 has declined from 19.1% to 17.2%. Looking ahead to Tuesday, 3 August 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Forster-Tuncurry Surrounds's age structure. The 65 to 74 group is projected to grow by 15%, adding 212 people and reaching a total of 1,606 from the current figure of 1,393. Meanwhile, the population aged 5 to 14 grows by a modest 4%, with an increase of 26 people.