Kempsey Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kempsey Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey Surrounds' population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, was approximately 9,739 by Aug 2025. This figure reflects a rise of 267 individuals (2.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,472. The increase is inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 9,612 in Jun 2024 and an additional 100 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 2.7 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey Surrounds' 2.8% growth since the Census places it within 1.5 percentage points of its SA3 area (4.3%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration drove primary population growth, contributing around 53.1% of overall gains recently.

AreaSearch employs ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovers areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics suggest an increase just below Australia's regional median, with Kempsey Surrounds expected to grow by approximately 1,130 persons by 2041, a total gain of around 10.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kempsey Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kempsey Surrounds averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with a total of 116 homes approved during this period. An additional 4 dwellings have been approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling has attracted about 2.1 new residents per year over the past five financial years, suggesting strong demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is around $583,000, which is moderately higher than regional levels, indicating a focus on quality construction. In FY-26, there have been $2.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Kempsey Surrounds has shown significantly reduced construction activity, with 56.0% fewer approvals per person, which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. This trend is also lower than national averages, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New developments consist mainly of standalone homes (94.0%) with a smaller proportion of medium and high-density housing (6.0%), preserving the area's low density character and attracting space-seeking buyers.

As of now, there are an estimated 464 people per dwelling approval in the area, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate that Kempsey Surrounds is expected to gain approximately 980 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kempsey Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Thirty-two infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include the Potential Inclusion of RU2 Zoned Land North of River Street West Kempsey, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, and Rezoning of RU5 Village Zone to R1 General Residential along River Street West Kempsey. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Kempsey Surrounds shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Kempsey Surrounds has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and estimated employment growth of 0.7% over the past year as of June 2025. It has 4,445 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 3.6 percentage points higher than Rest of NSW's 3.7%.

Workforce participation is significantly lower at 49.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level, while mining has lower representation at 0.5% compared to the regional average of 2.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data comparison.

In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.7%, and labour force grew by 0.7%, keeping unemployment relatively stable. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1%, labour force grew by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 4.3%. National unemployment is 4.5% with national employment growth at 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's projections from May 2025 forecast national employment to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Kempsey Surrounds' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1%% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Kempsey Surrounds' income level was below the national average according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Kempsey Surrounds had a median income among taxpayers of $41,205 and an average income of $48,329, compared to Rest of NSW's figures of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes for Kempsey Surrounds as of March 2025 would be approximately $45,573 and $53,452 respectively. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Kempsey Surrounds were between the 8th and 11th percentiles nationally. The data showed that 27.6% of the population (2,687 individuals) had incomes within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to metropolitan regions where this cohort represented 29.9%. Housing costs were modest with 88.1% of income retained, but total disposable income ranked at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Kempsey Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kempsey Surrounds, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Kempsey Surrounds was 54.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (28.5%) or rented (17.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,307, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, matching Non-Metro NSW's figure. Nationally, Kempsey Surrounds' mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.9% of all households, including 22.7% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households making up 4.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3 people.

Kempsey Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 16.1%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.4% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 10.1% and certificates at 34.4%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of 7 schools operates within Kempsey Surrounds, educating approximately 393 students as of the latest data point (2021). The area demonstrates varied educational conditions across Kempsey Surrounds, with all 7 schools focusing exclusively on primary education and secondary options available in surrounding areas. Limited local school capacity, at 4.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.1, means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 210 active transport stops operating within Kempsey Surrounds. These comprise a mix of buses serving 80 individual routes, collectively providing 674 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 298 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 96 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kempsey Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is notably low, at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,479 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). A higher proportion, 62.5%, report being completely free from medical ailments than in Rest of NSW (58.0%). The area has a notably high percentage of residents aged 65 and over, at 27.7% (~2,694 people).

The latest Census data sees Kempsey Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey Surrounds was found to have a cultural diversity below average, with 89.1% of its population being Australian citizens, 90.3% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Kempsey Surrounds, comprising 52.9%, compared to 54.2% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (33.6%), Australian (31.7%), and Irish (9.0%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 5.8% in Kempsey Surrounds compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Maltese and New Zealand ethnicities also have notable representations at 0.4% each.

Kempsey Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Kempsey Surrounds has a median age of 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Kempsey Surrounds at 17.6%, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 8.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.6% to 8.3% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 19.3% to 17.1%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.1% to 11.7%. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 47%, reaching 1,195 people from the previous count of 810. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are expected to comprise 51% of the total population growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.