Kempsey Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kempsey Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey Surrounds' population was around 9,796 as of February 2026, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 324 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,472. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,589 in June 2024 and an additional 115 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2.7 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey Surrounds' growth rate of 3.4% since the census is within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 5.2%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 53.1% of overall population gains during recent periods in this area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an expected increase just below the median of regional areas nationwide, with Kempsey Surrounds expected to expand by 1,130 persons to reach a total population of 10,926 by 2041, reflecting a gain of 9.4% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kempsey Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kempsey Surrounds has seen approximately 23 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 116 homes were approved, with an additional 9 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 2.1 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $309,000. This financial year has seen around $2.3 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Rest of NSW, Kempsey Surrounds shows significantly reduced construction levels, with 56.0% fewer new homes per person than the regional average. This scarcity typically boosts demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, new building activity is lower in Kempsey Surrounds, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints.

The area's housing stock consists of 94.0% detached houses and 6.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining its traditional low-density character appealing to families seeking space. With an estimated 464 people per dwelling approval, the area has a quiet, low-activity development environment. Looking ahead, Kempsey Surrounds is projected to grow by approximately 923 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Construction is keeping pace with this growth, although increasing competition among buyers can be expected as the population rises.

Kempsey Surrounds has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Thirty-two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, Potential Inclusion of RU2 Zoned Land North of River Street West Kempsey, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, and Rezoning of RU5 Village Zone to R1 General Residential along River Street West Kempsey. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Kempsey Surrounds has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Kempsey Surrounds has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 is 4.4%. Employment stability over the past year has been relative.

There are 4,421 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower at 57.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 14.9% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training.

The area specialises in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level, but mining representation is lower at 0.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, labour force increased by 0.0% while employment decreased by 0.4%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.5 percentage points. By contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Kempsey Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Kempsey Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers was $43,361 and average income stood at $50,816 in the financial year 2023. This is below national averages of $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average) for Rest of NSW. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $47,203 and average income $55,318, based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Kempsey Surrounds fall between the 8th and 10th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The largest income bracket comprises 27.6% earning $1,500-$2,999 weekly, aligning with broader area figures at 29.9%. Despite modest housing costs allowing retention of 88.1% of income, total disposable income ranks at the 15th percentile nationally.

Kempsey Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Kempsey Surrounds, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey Surrounds stood at 54.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.5% and rented ones at 17.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,307, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Kempsey Surrounds was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863 and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 67.9% of all households, including 22.7% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households making up 4.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the average for the Rest of NSW.

Kempsey Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.1%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (34.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.0% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kempsey Surrounds has 213 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 72 individual routes that collectively provide 635 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as good, with residents typically located 299 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to the primarily residential nature of the area. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 90%, with 7% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.9% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 90 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this analysis showing the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Kempsey Surrounds are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey Surrounds shows below-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are higher than average, with common health conditions more prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,496 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). 62.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors at 28.0% (2,745 people), compared to 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average and rank even higher than the general population nationally.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey Surrounds, as per the census conducted on the 27th of June, 2016, had a cultural diversity index below average. The population was predominantly Australian-born citizens, with 89.1% being citizens and 90.3% having been born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 96.9% of the population.

Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 52.9% of people, compared to 55.9% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.6%), Australian (31.7%), and Irish (9%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation was higher at 5.8%, compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Maltese and New Zealand representations were also notable at 0.4% each, mirroring or slightly exceeding their respective regional averages of 0.4% and 0.4%.

Kempsey Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Kempsey Surrounds has a median age of 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and considerably older than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Kempsey Surrounds at 17.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 8.4%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.6% to 8.8%, and the 15 to 24 cohort has increased from 9.2% to 10.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 19.3% to 16.9%, and the 45 to 54 age group has dropped from 13.1% to 11.3%. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 38%, reaching 1,195 people from the current 864. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 age cohorts.