Kempsey Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kempsey Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey Surrounds' population, as of November 2025, is approximately 9,758, reflecting a growth of 286 people since the 2021 Census. This increase corresponds to a 3.0% rise from the previous population count of 9,472. The change is inferred from an estimated resident population of 9,619 in June 2024 and an additional 105 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2.7 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey Surrounds' growth rate of 3.0% since the census is within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.5%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 53.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an increase just below the median of Australia's regional areas, with Kempsey Surrounds expected to grow by approximately 1,130 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total gain of 9.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kempsey Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kempsey Surrounds has averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 116 homes were approved, with an additional 8 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling has resulted in about 2.1 new residents per year over these five years, indicating strong demand which supports property values.

The average construction cost value of new homes is around $309,000. This financial year has seen $2.3 million in commercial development approvals, suggesting a primary focus on residential development. Compared to the rest of NSW, Kempsey Surrounds has significantly less development activity, 56.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this activity is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New development consists predominantly of standalone homes, with 94.0% being so and only 6.0% medium or high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated population per dwelling approval is 464 people, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kempsey Surrounds is projected to gain 961 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with these growth projections, though buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Kempsey Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 37thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 32 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Potential Inclusion of RU2 Zoned Land North of River Street West Kempsey, Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, and Rezoning of RU5 Village Zone to R1 General Residential along River Street West Kempsey. The following list details those most relevant.

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Kempsey Surrounds shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Kempsey Surrounds has a balanced workforce encompassing white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% as of September 2025.

Employment stability has been relatively consistent over the past year. There are 4,421 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 4.9%, which is 0.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 49.7%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing shows strong specialisation with an employment share 2.4 times the regional average, while mining has a lower representation at 0.5% compared to the regional average of 2.5%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparisons between working population and resident population. From September 2024 to September 2025, labour force increased by 0.0%, but employment decreased by 0.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5% and labour force contract by 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Statewide, NSW experienced a 0.03% contraction in employment (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kempsey Surrounds' employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.1% in five years and 12.9% in ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Kempsey Surrounds SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $41,205 and an average of $48,329. This is below the national average. Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $46,401 (median) and $54,423 (average). The 2021 Census data reveals household, family, and personal incomes in Kempsey Surrounds fall between the 8th and 10th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that 27.6% of locals (2,693 people) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to metropolitan regions where 29.9% fall into this category. Housing costs are modest with 88.1% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Kempsey Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kempsey Surrounds, as per the latest Census evaluation, 94.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 5.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey Surrounds stood at 54.1%, with mortgaged properties at 28.5% and rented dwellings at 17.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,307, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. Weekly rent in Kempsey Surrounds was recorded at $300, matching the Non-Metro NSW figure. Nationally, mortgage repayments in Kempsey Surrounds were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.9 percent of all households, including 22.7 percent that are couples with children, 32.0 percent consisting of couples without children, and 11.9 percent composed of single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.1 percent, with lone person households at 28.1 percent and group households comprising 4.0 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Kempsey Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 16.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 44.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (34.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport within Kempsey Surrounds shows that there are currently 210 active transport stops in operation. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 80 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate 674 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is considered good, with residents on average located 298 meters from the nearest transport stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages 96 trips per day, which equates to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kempsey Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges for Kempsey Surrounds, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,488 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (11.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). 62.5% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 58.0%. As of 27.7%, the area has a high proportion of residents aged 65 and over (2,700 people). Health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey Surrounds, surveyed in 2016, had a population with 89.1% Australian citizens, 90.3% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 52.9%. This figure is slightly lower than Rest of NSW's 54.2%.

The top three ancestral groups were English (33.6%), Australian (31.7%), and Irish (9.0%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were overrepresented at 5.8% compared to the regional average of 7.5%, while Maltese and New Zealand groups showed similar representation to the region at 0.4% and 0.6% respectively.

Kempsey Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Kempsey Surrounds has a median age of 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and considerably older than the Australian median of 38. The 65-74 cohort is notably over-represented in Kempsey Surrounds at 17.6%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 8.3%. This concentration of the 65-74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that from June 2021 to June 2022, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 6.6% to 8.3%, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 19.3% to 17.1%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.1% to 11.7%. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 75 to 84 group projected to grow by 47%, reaching 1,195 people from 811. The aging population trend is clear, as those aged 65 and above will comprise 51% of the projected growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.