Kempsey Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kempsey Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey Surrounds' population is approximately 9,758 as of November 2025. Between the 2021 Census and June 2024, the population increased by 3.0%, from 9,472 to an estimated resident population of 9,619. This increase includes 105 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is around 2.7 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey Surrounds' growth rate of 3.0% since the census is within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.5%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 53.1% to recent population gains in the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to increase by approximately 1,130 persons, a gain of around 9.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kempsey Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kempsey Surrounds has averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 116 homes were approved, with an additional 7 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling has resulted in around 2.1 new residents per year over these five years, indicating strong demand which supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $309,000. In the current financial year, there have been $2.3 million worth of commercial development approvals recorded, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Kempsey Surrounds has significantly less development activity, 56.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this activity is also below average, suggesting possible planning constraints or the area's maturity.

The majority of new development consists of standalone homes at 94.0%, with medium and high-density housing making up the remaining 6.0%, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. As of now, there are an estimated 464 people in the area per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate that Kempsey Surrounds will gain approximately 961 residents by 2041. Building activity is currently keeping pace with these growth projections, though increased competition among buyers may be expected as the population grows.

Kempsey Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

Thirty-two projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include the Potential Inclusion of RU2 Zoned Land North of River Street West Kempsey, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, and Rezoning of RU5 Village Zone to R1 General Residential along River Street West Kempsey. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

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Kempsey Surrounds shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Kempsey Surrounds has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 4.2% as of June 2025, and estimated employment growth of 0.7% over the past year. The area has 4,445 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 0.6%, which is higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation lags at 49.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level, while mining has lower representation at 0.5% compared to the regional average of 2.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population data.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.7%, labour force grew by 0.7%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 4.3%. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1%, labour force grow by 0.3%, and unemployment rise to 4.1%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industries. Applying these projections to Kempsey Surrounds' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Kempsey Surrounds' income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended 30 June 2022. Kempsey Surrounds had a median income among taxpayers of $41,205 and an average income of $48,329, compared to Rest of NSW's figures of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year ended 30 June 2022 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $46,401 for median income and $54,423 for average income as of September 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family, and personal incomes in Kempsey Surrounds all fall between the 8th and 11th percentiles nationally. The data shows that 27.6% of the population (2,693 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. While housing costs are modest with 88.1% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Kempsey Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kempsey Surrounds' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NSW had 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey Surrounds was 54.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.5% and rented ones at 17.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,307, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. Median weekly rent in Kempsey Surrounds was $300, matching Non-Metro NSW's figure but significantly below the national average of $375. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863.

Kempsey Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.9% of all households, including 22.7% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households making up 4.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Kempsey Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 16.1%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (34.4%).

Educational participation is high at 26.1%, including primary education (10.0%), secondary education (8.3%), and tertiary education (2.1%). There are 7 schools operating within Kempsey Surrounds, educating approximately 393 students, all focusing on primary education with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 4.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 13.1%, resulting in many families traveling for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Kempsey Surrounds indicates that there are currently 210 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 80 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 674 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in the region is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 298 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 96 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kempsey Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering around 4,488 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (11.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). Around 62.5% report no medical ailments, higher than the Rest of NSW's 58.0%. The area has a high proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 27.7% or approximately 2,700 people.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey Surrounds, as per the data, had a cultural diversity index below the average. The population breakdown showed that 89.1% were Australian citizens, 90.3% were born in Australia, and 96.9% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, with 52.9% of people identifying as such, compared to 54.2% in the Rest of NSW region.

The top three ancestral groups based on parents' country of birth were English (33.6%), Australian (31.7%), and Irish (9.0%). Notably, the Australian Aboriginal population was higher at 5.8%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Other ethnic groups with notable differences included Maltese (0.4% vs 0.4%) and New Zealand (0.6% vs 0.4%).

Kempsey Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Kempsey Surrounds has a median age of 51 years, significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and the Australian median of 38. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Kempsey Surrounds at 17.6%, compared to the Rest of NSW average, and well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group grew from 6.6% to 8.3% of the population between 2016 and 2021, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group declined from 19.3% to 17.1%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.1% to 11.7%. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 47%, reaching 1,195 people from 811. Those aged 65 and above will comprise 51% of the projected population growth. Both the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 age groups are expected to decrease in number.