Kempsey Surrounds
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kempsey Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey Surrounds' population, as of Aug 2025, is approximately 9,739, showing a rise of 267 people since the 2021 Census which recorded 9,472 inhabitants. This increase, representing a 2.8% growth, is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 9,612 in June 2024 and an additional 100 validated new addresses post-census. The population density stands at 2.7 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey Surrounds' 2.8% growth since the census is close to the SA3 area's 4.3%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 53.1% of overall population gains recently. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 using 2021 as the base year are employed. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to increase by approximately 1,130 persons, a gain of about 10.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kempsey Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kempsey Surrounds averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with a total of 116 homes approved during this period. In FY-26, up until now, there have been 4 such approvals. On average, each dwelling has resulted in around 2.1 new residents annually over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value for these dwellings was approximately $583,000, which is moderately above regional levels and suggests an emphasis on quality construction. This financial year, there have been $2.3 million in commercial approvals, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Kempsey Surrounds shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 56.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing homes. Similarly, compared nationally, the area reflects market maturity and possible development constraints.

The majority of new developments consist of standalone homes (94.0%), with a smaller proportion being medium or high-density housing (6.0%), preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. As of now, there are approximately 464 people in the area for each dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet development environment. Population forecasts indicate that Kempsey Surrounds is expected to gain around 980 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kempsey Surrounds has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 31stth percentile nationally

The impact of local infrastructure changes on an area's performance is significant. AreaSearch has identified 32 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Potential Inclusion of RU2 Zoned Land North of River Street West Kempsey, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, and Rezoning of RU5 Village Zone to R1 General Residential along River Street West Kempsey. The following list details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Kempsey Surrounds shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Kempsey Surrounds has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 4.2%, showing an employment growth of 0.7% in the past year.

As of June 2025, there are 4,445 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.6% compared to Rest of NSW's 3.7%. Workforce participation is lower at 49.7%, versus Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training. The area specializes in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level, while mining representation is lower at 0.5% versus the regional average of 2.5%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison. From June 2024 to June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.7%, and labour force grew by 0.7%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.6%. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contraction of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (May 2025) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industries. Applying these projections to Kempsey Surrounds's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Kempsey Surrounds' median income among taxpayers was $41,205 and average income was $48,329 in the financial year 2022. These figures are below those of Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $46,401 and average income is around $54,423, based on a 12.61% growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Kempsey Surrounds fall between the 8th and 11th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In this region, 27.6% of the population (2,687 individuals) have incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to metropolitan regions where this group represents 29.9%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.1% income retention, total disposable income ranks at only the 15th percentile nationally.

Kempsey Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kempsey Surrounds' dwellings, according to the latest Census, consisted of 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings (including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' types). This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's composition of 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey Surrounds was higher at 54.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.5% and rented ones at 17.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,307, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. Median weekly rent in Kempsey Surrounds was recorded at $300, matching Non-Metro NSW's figure. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly lower compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.9% of all households, including 22.7% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 4.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Kempsey Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has lower university qualification rates at 16.1% compared to the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 44.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (34.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.1%, including primary education at 10.0%, secondary education at 8.3%, and tertiary education at 2.1%.

Seven schools operate within Kempsey Surrounds, educating approximately 393 students, all focusing on primary education with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School capacity is limited locally (4.0 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 13.1), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Kempsey Surrounds has found that there are currently 210 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 80 individual routes providing service to the area. Together, these routes facilitate 674 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in the region is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 298 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are around 96 trips per day across all routes, which equates to roughly three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kempsey Surrounds is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey Surrounds faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46% (~4,479 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common conditions are arthritis (11.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). A total of 62.5% report no medical ailments, higher than the Rest of NSW's 58.0%. The area has a high proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 27.7% (~2,694 people).

The latest Census data sees Kempsey Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey Surrounds, surveyed in 2016, had a culturally diverse population of 89.1%, with 90.3% born in Australia and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 52.9%. This is slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 54.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.6%), Australian (31.7%), and Irish (9%). Notably, Australian Aboriginals were overrepresented at 5.8%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Maltese and New Zealand groups also showed similar representation: 0.4% each for both Kempsey Surrounds and the region.

Kempsey Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Kempsey Surrounds has a median age of 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and considerably older than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented in Kempsey Surrounds at 17.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 8.3%. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.6% to 8.3%, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 19.3% to 17.1%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.1% to 11.7%. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 75 to 84 age group will grow by 47%, reaching 1,195 people from 810. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those aged 65 and above comprising 51% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 age groups will see reduced numbers.