Kempsey Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kempsey Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kempsey Surrounds's population is around 9,796 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 324 people (3.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,472 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,589 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 115 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2.7 persons per square kilometer, providing ample space per person. Kempsey Surrounds's 3.4% growth since the census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (5.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 53.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of regional areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to expand by 1,130 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 9.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kempsey Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kempsey Surrounds has seen around 23 new homes approved each year, with 116 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 12 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.1 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), reflecting robust demand that underpins property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $309,000. There have also been $2.3 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Kempsey Surrounds shows substantially reduced construction (56.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This level is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New building activity consists of 94.0% detached houses and 6.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 464 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Looking ahead, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to grow by 923 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers could encounter growing competition as population increases.

Kempsey Surrounds has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 32 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, Potential Inclusion of RU2 Zoned Land North of River Street West Kempsey, Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, and Rezoning of RU5 Village Zone to R1 General Residential along River Street West Kempsey, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kempsey Surrounds has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Kempsey Surrounds has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. As of December 2025, 4,359 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.4% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation lags significantly (56.2% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 14.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training. The area has a particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level. Conversely, mining shows lower representation at 0.5% versus the regional average of 2.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw the labour force decrease by 1.4% combined with employment decreasing by 1.8%, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 0.4 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kempsey Surrounds. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kempsey Surrounds's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The Kempsey Surrounds SA2's income level is below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Kempsey Surrounds SA2's median income among taxpayers is $43,361 and the average income stands at $50,816, which compares to figures for Regional NSW's of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $47,203 (median) and $55,318 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Kempsey Surrounds all fall between the 8th and 10th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 27.6% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (2,703 residents), aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. While housing costs are modest with 88.1% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Kempsey Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Kempsey Surrounds, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 94.6% houses and 5.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kempsey Surrounds was well beyond that of Regional NSW, at 54.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.5%) or rented (17.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,307, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Kempsey Surrounds's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 67.9% of all households, comprising 22.7% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households comprising 4.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional NSW average.

Kempsey Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.1%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (34.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 213 active transport stops operating within Kempsey Surrounds, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 72 individual routes, collectively providing 635 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 299 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 7% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. Some 14.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 90 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health outcomes in Kempsey Surrounds are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Health indicators suggest below-average outcomes in Kempsey Surrounds, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~4,496 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.5 and 8.6% of residents, respectively, while 62.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 28.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,745 people), which is higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey Surrounds was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 89.1% of its population being citizens, 90.3% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Kempsey Surrounds is Christianity, which makes up 52.9% of the population. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kempsey Surrounds are English, comprising 33.6% of the population, Australian, comprising 31.7% of the population, and Irish, comprising 9.0% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is notably overrepresented at 5.8% of Kempsey Surrounds (vs 4.6% regionally), Maltese at 0.4% (vs 0.4%) and New Zealand at 0.6% (vs 0.4%).

Kempsey Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

At 51 years, Kempsey Surrounds's median age is significantly above the Regional NSW average of 43 as well as considerably older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 65 - 74 cohort is notably over-represented (17.6% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (8.4%). This 65 - 74 concentration is well above the national 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 6.6% to 8.8% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 19.3% to 16.9% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.1% to 11.3%. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 38% (330 people), reaching 1,195 from 864. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 55 to 64 cohorts.