Kempsey Surrounds

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kempsey Surrounds reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey Surrounds' population is approximately 9,692 as of May 2026. This figure represents a growth of 220 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,472. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 9,671 in June 2025 and additional validated new addresses post-Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2.7 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey Surrounds' growth rate of 2.3% since the Census is comparable to its SA3 area's growth fundamentals, which stood at 4.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 50.6% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics indicate a median increase similar to Australia's regional areas, with Kempsey Surrounds expected to gain approximately 1,108 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall growth of 11.2% over the 16-year period based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kempsey Surrounds according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Kempsey Surrounds has averaged approximately 23 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25116 homes were approved, with an additional 16 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling has attracted around 2.1 new residents per year over these five years, indicating strong demand which may support property values.

The average expected construction cost value of new homes is $309,000. This financial year, $2.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the rest of NSW, Kempsey Surrounds has significantly less development activity, with 56.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this activity is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New development consists of 94.0% standalone homes and 6.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. The estimated count of people per dwelling approval in the area is 464, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Kempsey Surrounds will gain approximately 1,087 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kempsey Surrounds has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 0thth percentile nationally

A total of 32 projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, Potential Inclusion of RU2 Zoned Land North of River Street West Kempsey, Rezoning of RU5 Village Zone to R1 General Residential along River Street West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Kempsey Surrounds shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Kempsey Surrounds has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%. There were 4,359 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 0.4% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation was lower at 55.8%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census data, 14.9% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and education & training. The area has a strong focus on agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 2.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, mining representation is lower at 0.5% compared to the regional average of 2.5%. There appears to be limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.4% while employment declined by 1.8%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In Regional NSW during this period, employment fell by 1.2%, labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 suggest Kempsey Surrounds' employment could increase by 6.1% over five years and 12.9% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that Kempsey Surrounds SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $43,361 and an average of $50,816. Both figures are below the national averages. Regional NSW's median income was $52,390 with an average of $65,215 during the same period. Based on a 10.32% growth in wages since June 2023, current estimates suggest that by March 2026, Kempsey Surrounds' median income would be approximately $47,836 and average income around $56,060. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in Kempsey Surrounds fall between the 8th and 10th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The earnings profile shows that 27.6% of locals (2,674 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is similar to the pattern seen in metropolitan regions where 29.9% fall into this income bracket. Housing costs are modest with residents retaining 88.1% of their income after housing expenses. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 15th percentile nationally.

Kempsey Surrounds is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kempsey Surrounds, as per the latest Census, 94.6% of dwellings were houses, with 5.4% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey Surrounds stood at 54.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.5% and rented ones at 17.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,307, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent was $300, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Kempsey Surrounds' mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey Surrounds features high concentrations of group households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.9% of all households, including 22.7% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 11.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.1%, with lone person households at 28.1% and group households making up 4.0%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Kempsey Surrounds faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 44.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (10.1%) and certificates (34.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.0% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kempsey Surrounds has 213 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 72 unique routes, offering a total of 635 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is considered good, with residents typically living an average of 299 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. The car remains the primary mode of transport at 90%, while walking accounts for 7%. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 14.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 90 trips daily across all routes, translating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops relative to the location's centerpoint.

Health outcomes in Kempsey Surrounds are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey Surrounds shows below-average health indicators based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are higher than average for both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at 46% of the total population (around 4,448 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (11.5%) and mental health issues (8.6%). 62.5% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face significant health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors at 28.3%, compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average and rank higher nationally than the general population.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey Surrounds placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey Surrounds, as per the 2016 Census, had a population with 89.1% being Australian citizens, 90.3% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 52.9%. This is slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (33.6%), Australian (31.7%), and Irish (9.0%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were overrepresented at 5.8%, compared to the regional average of 4.6%. Maltese and New Zealand born populations also showed notable divergences, with 0.4% each in Kempsey Surrounds, compared to the same proportion regionally for Maltese, and a higher proportion for New Zealand (0.6%).

Kempsey Surrounds ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Kempsey Surrounds has a median age of 51 years, which is significantly higher than the Regional NSW average of 43 years and considerably older than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 65-74 age group is notably over-represented in Kempsey Surrounds at 17.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 7.9%. The 65-74 concentration is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has grown from 6.6% to 9.0%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 9.2% to 10.8%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 19.3% to 16.8%, and the 45-54 group dropped from 13.1% to 11.2%. By 2041, Kempsey Surrounds is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. The 75-84 age group will grow by 40%, reaching 1,219 people from 869. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts.