Frederickton

Population growth drivers in Frederickton are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Frederickton's population is estimated at around 1,560 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 108 people (7.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,452 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 1,519 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 127 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Frederickton's growth of 7.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.0%), along with the non-metro area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 68.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth of Australian non-metropolitan areas is projected. The Frederickton statistical area (Lv2) is expected to grow by 285 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 13.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frederickton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frederickton has seen approximately six new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 33 homes were approved, with two more approved so far in FY-26. On average, 1.2 new residents per year arrived for each new home over these five years, suggesting balanced supply and demand conditions. However, this has decreased to 0.4 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating a shift towards more balanced supply conditions.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $403,000, which is higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. This year, $933,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Frederickton has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 54th percentile nationally.

New building activity consists of 80.0% detached dwellings and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. With approximately 298 people per approval, Frederickton reflects a transitioning market in terms of population growth. Population forecasts indicate that Frederickton will gain around 215 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, but buyers may face increasing competition as the population grows.

Frederickton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No factors influence a region's performance more than changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could impact this area. Key projects include Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, Kempsey Regional Saleyards Infrastructure Upgrade, Central Kempsey Wastewater Treatment Plant, and Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Frederickton faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Frederickton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.0%.

The past year has seen relative employment stability. Compared to Rest of NSW, Frederickton's unemployment rate is 1.1% higher at 3.8%, and workforce participation lags at 46.5% versus 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Health care & social assistance dominates with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, while professional & technical services employ only 2.2% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.1%.

Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population versus resident population data. Between September 2024 and 2025, employment levels remained stable at 0.0%, while labour force increased by 1.1%, raising the unemployment rate by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-wide, NSW's employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia projects national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Frederickton's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reports Frederickton's median taxpayer income as $43,888 and average income as $50,236. These figures are lower than national averages. Compared to Rest of NSW, Frederickton has a median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $47,776 (median) and $54,687 (average). Census data shows Frederickton's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. Income distribution in Frederickton is dominated by a segment earning $800 - $1,499 weekly, comprising 30.0% of residents (468 individuals), unlike the region where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Frederickton, with only 83.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Frederickton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Frederickton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, comprised 94.9% houses and 5.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frederickton stood at 42.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.2% and rented ones at 24.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,339, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent in Frederickton was $330, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $300. Nationally, Frederickton's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,339 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Frederickton has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.7% of all households, including 21.3% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 16.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.3%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households making up 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Frederickton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 5.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.8%) and certificates (33.5%).

A substantial 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.2% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frederickton has 23 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes that collectively facilitate 147 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 168 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 21 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frederickton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Frederickton faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 47% (~731 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.5%) and asthma (9.2%). Conversely, 53.0% reported no medical ailments, compared to 58.0% in Rest of NSW. Frederickton has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 32.1% (500 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 28.1%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

The latest Census data sees Frederickton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Frederickton was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 92.4% of its population born in Australia, 95.0% being citizens, and 96.2% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Frederickton is Christianity, which accounts for 63.1% of the population, compared to 54.2% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups in Frederickton are English (33.7%), Australian (32.4%), and Irish (8.1%).

Notably, some ethnic groups have different representations: Australian Aboriginal is higher at 7.7% (vs regional 7.5%), Lebanese at 0.4% (vs 0.1%), and French at 0.5% (vs 0.3%).

Frederickton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Frederickton's median age of 48 years is significantly older than Rest of NSW's 43 and Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 85 and above are particularly prominent, accounting for 7.7% of the population, while the 35-44 age group is smaller at 9.3%. This concentration of those aged 85 and above is well above the national average of 2.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 35-44 age group has grown from 7.7% to 9.3%, while the 0-4 cohort increased from 5.1% to 6.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has declined slightly from 11.8% to 10.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that Frederickton's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The number of people aged 85 and above is projected to increase considerably, with an expansion of 76 individuals (a 64% increase) from 120 to 197. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 15-24 and 65-74 age cohorts.