Frederickton

Population growth drivers in Frederickton are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Frederickton's population is estimated at around 1,559 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 107 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,452 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,519 in June 2024, considering the latest ERP data release by the ABS and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 127 persons per square kilometer. Frederickton's growth of 7.4% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.2%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 68.0%.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and utilising NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year for areas not covered. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, the suburb of Frederickton is expected to grow by 288 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 15.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frederickton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frederickton has seen approximately six new homes approved each year. Between the financial years 2021 (FY-21) and 2025 (FY-25), around 32 homes were approved, with two more approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.4 new residents per year have been associated with each dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand market, supporting stable conditions. The average construction cost value of new homes is $403,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. In FY-26, $933,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Frederickton has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person. Nationally, it places among the 54th percentile of areas assessed. New building activity shows 80% detached dwellings and 20% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Frederickton reflects a transitioning market with around 298 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate Frederickton will gain 248 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Frederickton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No infrastructure changes are currently planned for this area. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the region. Key initiatives include Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, Kempsey Regional Saleyards Infrastructure Upgrade, Central Kempsey Wastewater Treatment Plant, and Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Frederickton recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Frederickton has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 4.6%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025621 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.7% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Frederickton is lower at 51.3% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Census responses show that only 6.6% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. The dominant employment sectors among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Frederickton specializes in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ only 2.2% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.1%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Frederickton's labour force decreased by 0.8% and employment fell by 1.4%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In Regional NSW during the same period, employment fell by 1.2%, labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Frederickton's employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment profile.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Frederickton's median income among taxpayers is $43,888, with an average of $50,236. This is lower than national averages and compares to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $47,776 (median) and $54,687 (average). Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Frederickton fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment comprises 30.0% earning $800 - $1,499 weekly, with 467 residents, differing from Regional NSW where the $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Frederickton, with only 83.6% of income remaining, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Frederickton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Frederickton's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.9% houses and 5.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frederickton was higher at 42.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (33.2%) or rented (24.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,339, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Frederickton was $330, matching Regional NSW's figure but significantly below the national average of $375. Nationally, Frederickton's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,339 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

Frederickton has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 70.7% of all households, including 21.3% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 16.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.3%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households making up 1.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Frederickton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 5.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (7.8%) and certificates (33.5%).

A substantial 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.2% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frederickton has 23 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes that together offer 147 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living 168 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars are the primary mode of transportation, used by 97% of residents. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per household.

According to the 2021 Census, only 6.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately six weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frederickton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Frederickton faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at 47%, covering approximately 730 people, compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.5%) and asthma (9.2%). Conversely, 53.0% report no medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age residents face notable chronic condition challenges. Frederickton has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 31.7%, or 494 people, than Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Frederickton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Frederickton was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 92.4% of its population born in Australia, 95.0% being citizens, and 96.2% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion in Frederickton is Christianity, comprising 63.1% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are English (33.7%), Australian (32.4%), and Irish (8.1%).

Notably, certain ethnic groups have different representations: Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 7.7% in Frederickton compared to 4.6% regionally, Lebanese at 0.4% vs 0.2%, and French at 0.5% vs 0.4%.

Frederickton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Frederickton's median age of 48 years is notably older than Regional NSW's 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 85 and above are particularly prominent, making up 7.5% of the population, while the 35 to 44 age group is comparatively smaller at 9.4%. This concentration of those aged 85 and above is well above the national average of 2.2%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the 0 to 4 age group has grown from 5.1% to 6.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has increased from 7.7% to 9.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has declined from 11.8% to 10.7%. Demographic modeling suggests that Frederickton's age profile will change significantly by 2041. The number of people aged 85 and above is projected to increase considerably, from 116 to 200, an increase of 83 people (71%). In contrast, population declines are projected for those aged 15 to 24 and 65 to 74.