Frederickton

Population growth drivers in Frederickton are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The estimated population of Frederickton is around 1,508 as of May 2026, reflecting a growth of 56 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 3.9% change from the previous population count of 1,452. The new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census date contributed to this rise, along with the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025. Frederickton's population density is approximately 123 persons per square kilometer. Interstate migration accounted for roughly 68% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to projected demographic shifts, the suburb is expected to grow by 243 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 16.1% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Frederickton according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Frederickton has seen approximately six new homes approved annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 32 homes were approved, with three more approved so far in FY26. Each year, an average of 1.7 new residents per dwelling has been recorded, indicating a balanced supply and demand market supporting stable conditions.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $403,000, which is relatively high compared to regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. This financial year, $933,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Frederickton has around three-quarters the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 53rd percentile nationally for areas assessed.

The area maintains a traditional low-density character with 80% detached dwellings and 20% townhouses or apartments, appealing to those seeking space. With approximately 303 people per approval, Frederickton reflects a low-density population. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to gain 243 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Frederickton has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified zero projects likely impacting this area. Notable projects include Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, Kempsey Regional Saleyards Infrastructure Upgrade, Central Kempsey Wastewater Treatment Plant, and Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane. The following list details those most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Frederickton recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Frederickton's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate, as of December 2025, stands at 4.6% according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. In Frederickton, 623 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.7% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Frederickton lags behind Regional NSW, at 51.9% compared to 60.5%. Census responses indicate that only 6.6% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Frederickton specializes in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services employ just 2.2% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, Frederickton's labour force decreased by 0.5%, with employment decreasing by 1.1%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW where employment fell by 1.2%, labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Frederickton's employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The latest postcode level ATO data from AreaSearch for financial year 2023 shows Frederickton's median income among taxpayers is $43,888. The average income is $50,236. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Frederickton's median and average incomes would be approximately $48,417 and $55,420 respectively by March 2026. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Frederickton all fall between the 7th and 8th percentiles nationally. The largest income segment in Frederickton comprises 30.0% earning between $800 and $1,499 weekly, with 452 residents in this category. This differs from the regional trend where the $1,500 to $2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Frederickton, with only 83.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Frederickton is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Frederickton's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.9% houses and 5.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Frederickton stood at 42.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.2% and rented ones at 24.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,339, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Frederickton was $330, similar to Regional NSW's figure. Nationally, Frederickton's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,863, and rents substantially below the national average of $375.

Frederickton has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 70.7% of all households, including 21.3% couples with children, 32.0% couples without children, and 16.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 29.3%, with lone person households at 27.1% and group households comprising 1.9%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Frederickton faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 8.6%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 5.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.7%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (7.8%) and certificates (33.5%).

A substantial 24.0% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.2% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Frederickton has 23 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 15 different routes that together offer 147 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 168 meters away from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential area, most people commute outwards, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 97%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per household. According to the 2021 Census, only 6.6% of residents work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 21 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Frederickton is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Frederickton faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 47% of the total population (around 706 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 13.5 and 9.2% of residents respectively. However, 53.0% reported being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 31.5% of residents aged 65 and over (475 people), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, but generally align with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Frederickton placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Frederickton was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 92.4% of its population born in Australia, 95.0% being citizens, and 96.2% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Frederickton is Christianity, which accounts for 63.1% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. Regarding ancestry, the top three represented groups are English (33.7%), Australian (32.4%), and Irish (8.1%).

Notably, Australian Aboriginal representation in Frederickton is higher at 7.7%, compared to 4.6% regionally. Lebanese and French representations also differ slightly: Lebanese at 0.4% versus 0.2% regionally, and French at 0.5% versus 0.4%.

Frederickton hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Frederickton's median age of 48 years is significantly older than Regional NSW's median age of 43 and Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that individuals aged 85+ make up 7.0% of the population, while those aged 35-44 constitute only 9.5%. Post-Census data from 2021 indicates that the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 7.7% to 9.5%, and the 0 to 4 cohort has risen from 5.1% to 6.6%. Conversely, the 85+ cohort has decreased from 8.2% to 7.0%, and the 55 to 64 age group has dropped from 11.8% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Frederickton's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ cohort is projected to grow by 74 people (71%), from 105 to 180. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 age cohorts.