Urunga

An assessment of population growth drivers in Urunga reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Urunga's population was around 4,962 as of February 2026. This reflected an increase of 55 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,907. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 4,942 in June 2024 and an additional 64 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equated to a density ratio of 45 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 63.8% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections were used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth of non-metropolitan areas nationally was anticipated. The area was expected to grow by 241 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 4.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Urunga according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Urunga has seen approximately 11 new homes approved annually on average over the past five financial years. Between FY21 and FY25, 57 homes were approved, with a further 9 approved so far in FY26. On average, 2.3 people have moved to the area per new home constructed during this period, indicating healthy demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $367,000. This year, $490,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Urunga has about half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 53rd percentile nationally for building activity. Recent development has consisted solely of standalone homes, maintaining Urunga's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (84.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 290 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Future projections show Urunga adding 221 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Urunga has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 21stth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified two relevant projects: Sewering Coastal Villages Project and Urunga Boardwalk Replacement. Key initiatives include Waterfall Way Corridor Strategy and Pacific Highway Upgrade: Hexham To Brisbane. The following details projects likely most impactful.

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The employment landscape in Urunga shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Urunga has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.3% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.7% over the past year. As of that date, 1,989 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 0.5% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Urunga was significantly lower at 48.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 13.6% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, Urunga had a high concentration in education & training, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employed only 3.0% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, while labour force increased by 3.1%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Urunga's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Urunga SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $45,407 and an average income of $56,669 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is lower than national averages; Rest of NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $49,430 (median) and $61,690 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Urunga fall between the 11th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income brackets show that the $800 - $1,499 earnings band captures 27.3% of the community (1,354 individuals), contrasting with regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe; only 84.2% of income remains, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Urunga is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Urunga's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 84.3% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Urunga stood at 49.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.7% and rented ones at 24.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,680, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Urunga was $350, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $330. Nationally, Urunga's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Urunga features high concentrations of group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 66.9% of all households, including 20.0% couples with children, 33.9% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 33.1%, with lone person households at 29.4% and group households comprising 4.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Urunga aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 10.3% and certificates for 31.4%.

A significant 24.9% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 9.5% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Urunga has 87 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 41 different routes, collectively providing 562 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good access to transport, with an average distance of 226 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from Urunga, which is predominantly residential. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 95% of residents. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in the area.

According to the 2021 Census, 13.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 80 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Urunga is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Urunga faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high among both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is very low, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 2,356 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.6% and 9.4% of residents respectively. However, 60.6% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 32.7% (1,622 people), compared to 23.4% in Rest of NSW.

The latest Census data sees Urunga placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Urunga showed lower cultural diversity, with 91.0% citizens, 89.5% born in Australia, and 97.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, at 50.0%, compared to 55.9% regionally. Top ancestry groups were English (32.9%), Australian (30.8%), and Irish (10.4%).

Notable differences included Scottish (9.4% vs regional 8.0%), Australian Aboriginal (3.3% vs 4.6%), and French (0.5% vs 0.4%).

Urunga ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Urunga's median age stands at 53, notably higher than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and significantly exceeding the national norm of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, Urunga has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (18.6%) but fewer individuals aged 25-34 (6.5%). This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national figure of 9.5%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35 to 44 has grown from 8.9% to 11.2%, while the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 8.9% to 10.3%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 12.8% to 10.2%, and the 25 to 34 group has dropped from 8.1% to 6.5%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Urunga's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 23 people (from 509 to 625), leading the demographic shift. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 66% of projected growth. Conversely, both the 0 to 4 and 65 to 74 age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.