Kempsey
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Kempsey are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Kempsey's population is 16,376 as of August 2025. This figure represents a 4.6% increase from the 2021 Census count of 15,654 people. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 16,269 in June 2024 and validated new addresses totalling 118 since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 83 persons per square kilometre. Kempsey's growth rate exceeds that of its SA3 area, which was 4.3%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.6% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Population projections indicate above median growth for national regional areas, with Kempsey expected to increase by 2,793 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 16.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Kempsey when compared nationally

Kempsey has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 216 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY26. On average, around 2.9 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $403,000, which is consistent with regional patterns. This financial year, $8.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Kempsey records markedly lower building activity, 51.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, which is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New development consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated count of 488 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. Population forecasts indicate Kempsey will gain 2,649 residents through to 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kempsey has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 46thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, Verge and Eden Streets Sporting Complex, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing project, and Health Precinct Development West Kempsey. The following list details those expected to have most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Kempsey faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Kempsey's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.5% in June 2021, showing a 0.7% employment growth over the past year.

As of June 2025, 6,091 residents are employed, an unemployment rate of 3.8%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Kempsey is at 43.4%, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 2.5% compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.7%, labour force grew by 0.9%, leading to a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May 2025, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kempsey's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Kempsey's median income among taxpayers is $42,102. The average income in Kempsey during this period was $48,191. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Kempsey would be approximately $47,411 (median) and $54,268 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Kempsey all fall between the 6th percentile nationally. Looking at income distribution, the $800 - 1,499 earnings band captures 28.8% of Kempsey's community (4,716 individuals), diverging from the broader area where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Kempsey, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 8th percentile nationally.

Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Kempsey, as per the latest Census evaluation, 90.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 9.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This differs slightly from Non-Metro NSW's composition of 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey stood at 38.7%, with mortgaged properties at 30.6% and rented dwellings at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent in Kempsey was recorded at $285, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.2% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (36.2%). Educational participation is high at 33.4%, comprising 13.2% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

The area has 12 schools serving 3,641 students, with educational conditions varying across Kempsey. These include 7 primary, 4 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. As an education hub, the area offers 22.2 school places per 100 residents, above the regional average of 13.1, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kempsey has 258 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 105 unique routes, collectively facilitating 1,126 weekly passenger trips. The transport system is highly accessible with residents typically residing just 185 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 160 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Kempsey, with various health conditions impacting both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~7532 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.4% and 11.0% of residents respectively. Conversely, 56.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 58.0% across Rest of NSW. The area has 21.1% of residents aged 65 and over (3456 people), which is lower than the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey had cultural diversity below average, with 85.7% citizens, 92.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, at 57.0%, compared to 54.2% across Rest of NSW. Ancestry showed Australian at 31.8%, English at 30.6%, and Australian Aboriginal at 12.4%.

Maltese were notably higher at 0.5% (vs 0.4%), Irish at 7.8% (vs 8.7%), Samoan similar at 0.1%.

Kempsey hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Kempsey's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43, but considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 0-4 year-olds comprise 6.6%, while the 65-74 group comprises 11.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.9% to 12.2%, and the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 5.4% to 6.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Kempsey. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 24%, adding 486 residents to reach 2,506. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 cohorts.