Kempsey

Population growth drivers in Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 16,386 people. This figure represents a growth of 732 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,654. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,271 in June 2024 and an additional 121 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 84 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey's growth rate of 4.7% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.5%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.6% to the overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Kempsey is expected to experience an above median growth rate for national regional areas. By 2041, the area's population is projected to increase by 2,793 persons, reflecting a total increase of 16.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Kempsey when compared nationally

Kempsey has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 216 homes were approved, with an additional 6 approved so far in FY26. On average, around 2.9 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $283,000, which aligns with regional patterns. This financial year has seen $8.6 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Kempsey records significantly lower building activity, 51.0% below the regional average per person, suggesting scarcity of new homes that typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

As of now, there are an estimated 488 people in the area per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kempsey is forecasted to gain 2,639 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 12 projects that could impact the area significantly due to their potential influence on local infrastructure. Among these key projects are West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Kempsey's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 7.9%.

At this time, 6,061 residents were employed, an unemployment rate of 4.1% higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged at 43.4%, compared to the Rest of NSW average of 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance has a particularly high share of employment, at 1.3 times the regional level, while professional & technical services have lower representation at 2.5%, compared to the regional average of 5.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data comparisons. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Kempsey's labour force increased by 0.3% while employment decreased by 1.3%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, the Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Statewide, NSW's employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Kempsey SA2's median income among taxpayers is $42,102 and the average is $48,191. This is below the national average. Rest of NSW has a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $47,411 (median) and $54,268 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Kempsey fall between the 6th and 6th percentiles nationally. In Kempsey, 28.8% of the population earns within the $800 - 1,499 range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Kempsey, as per the latest Census evaluation, 90.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 9.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey stood at 38.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented ones at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent in Kempsey was $285, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.2% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households at 2.9%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common among qualified residents at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (36.2%). Educational participation is high, with 33.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.2% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kempsey has 258 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 105 unique routes that facilitate 1,126 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 185 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 160 trips per day across all routes, equating to roughly four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~7537 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (11.0%). About 56.2% report no medical ailments, compared to 58.0% in Rest of NSW. Around 21.1% (~3459 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.7% of its population being Australian citizens, 92.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Kempsey, comprising 57.0% of people, compared to 54.2% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.8%), English (30.6%), and Australian Aboriginal (12.4%).

Notably, Maltese were overrepresented at 0.5%, Irish at 7.8%, and Samoan at 0.1%, compared to regional percentages of 0.4%, 8.7%, and 0.1% respectively.

Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

Kempsey's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows a prominence of 0-4 year-olds at 6.6%, while the 65-74 group is comparatively smaller at 11.5% than in Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.9% to 12.2% of the population, with the 0-4 cohort increasing from 5.4% to 6.6%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Kempsey. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 24%, adding 485 residents to reach 2,506. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 cohorts.