Kempsey

Population growth drivers in Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey's population is approximately 16,588 as of February 2026. This figure represents a 934-person increase (6.0%) from the 2021 Census count of 15,654 people. The growth was inferred from an estimated resident population of 16,232 in June 2024 and an additional 126 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 85 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (5.2%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilized, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends project an above median growth for regional areas nationally, with Kempsey expected to expand by 2,793 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.7% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Kempsey when compared nationally

Kempsey has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25216 homes were approved, with an additional 9 approved so far in FY26. On average, around 2.9 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $283,000, which is consistent with regional patterns. This year, $8.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the rest of NSW, Kempsey records significantly lower building activity, 51.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Additionally, this is under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations.

New development consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 488 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kempsey is forecasted to gain 2,437 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 12 projects likely impacting the region. Key projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Kempsey has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.9%. In September 2025, 6,061 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Rest of NSW's by 4.1% (3.8%).

Workforce participation in Kempsey lags at 50.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Census data shows only 6.5% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area specializes in health care & social assistance (1.3 times the regional level), but professional & technical jobs are less represented at 2.5%, compared to the regional average of 5.1%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work. From September 2024 to September 2025, Kempsey's labour force increased by 0.3% while employment decreased by 1.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Kempsey's employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Kempsey's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Kempsey SA2's median income among taxpayers is $44,318. The average income was $50,921 in the same period. This is below the national average. Comparing with Rest of NSW, Kempsey's median was $52,390 and average was $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates for Kempsey would be approximately $48,245 (median) and $55,433 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, incomes in Kempsey fall between the 6th and 6th percentiles nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. In terms of income distribution, 28.8% of Kempsey's population (4,777 individuals) earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Kempsey, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census data shows that in Kempsey, 90.9% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 9.1% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey was 38.7%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure. The majority of dwellings were either mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (30.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kempsey was $1,300, lower than the Non-Metro NSW average of $1,733 and the national average of $1,863. The median weekly rent in Kempsey was $285, substantially below the Non-Metro NSW figure of $330 and the national average of $375.

Kempsey has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.2% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 44.7% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 36.2%. Educational participation is high, with 33.4% currently enrolled in formal education: 13.2% in primary, 10.2% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.2% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kempsey has 262 active public transport stops serving a mix of train and bus services. These stops are covered by 94 individual routes, offering a total of 1,034 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents on average located 189 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with cars being the dominant mode at 95%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 6.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 147 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across various health conditions that affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, with approximately 46% of Kempsey's total population (~7,647 people) having it, compared to 51.9% in the rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (11.0%). However, 56.2% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in the rest of NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Kempsey has 21.0% of its population aged 65 and over (3,476 people), lower than the 23.4% in the rest of NSW. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they are broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 85.7% of its population being Australian citizens and 92.8% born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 96.6%. Christianity was the dominant religion in Kempsey, comprising 57.0%, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.8%), English (30.6%), and Australian Aboriginal (12.4%), which was significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%. Notably, Maltese representation was higher at 0.5%, compared to 0.4% regionally. Irish representation was also notable at 7.8%, versus 8.8% regionally, and Samoan representation was similar at 0.1%.

Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

Kempsey's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38. The 0-4 age group comprises 6.9% of Kempsey's population, compared to the Rest of NSW figure. The 65-74 cohort makes up 11.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.9% to 12.5%, while the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 5.4% to 6.9%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Kempsey's age profile will significantly change by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort is projected to grow strongly at 26%, adding 467 residents to reach 2,256. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 cohorts.