Kempsey

Population growth drivers in Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 16,386. This figure represents an increase of 732 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,654. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,271 in June 2024 and an additional 121 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 84 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey's growth rate of 4.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.5%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 67.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Kempsey is expected to experience above median growth, increasing by 2,793 persons to reach a total population of approximately 19,179 by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 16.1% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Kempsey when compared nationally

Kempsey has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25216 homes were approved, with an additional 5 approved so far in FY26. On average, around 2.9 people moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $403,000, aligning with regional patterns. This financial year has seen $8.6 million in commercial approvals registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Kempsey records significantly lower building activity, 51.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, which is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated count of 488 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kempsey is forecasted to gain 2,639 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Twelve infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. Key projects include West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Kempsey faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Kempsey has a balanced workforce comprising both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 7.5%, indicating an employment growth of 0.7% over the previous year.

As of that date, 6091 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.8% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Kempsey lagged at 43.4%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training sectors. Health care & social assistance shows strong specialization with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 2.5% compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data analysis. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.7%, while labour force grew by 0.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.1% with a labour force growth of 0.3%, resulting in a 0.4 percentage point increase in unemployment rate. State-level data for NSW as of Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2260 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3% during this period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022, Kempsey SA2's median income among taxpayers is $42,102. The average income in Kempsey is $48,191. Both figures are below the national averages. In comparison, Rest of NSW has a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Kempsey as of September 2025 would be approximately $47,411 (median) and $54,268 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Kempsey fall between the 6th and 6th percentiles nationally. In income distribution, 28.8% of individuals earn between $800 and $1,499, differing from broader areas where earnings between $1,500 and $2,999 are predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures in Kempsey are severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Kempsey, as evaluated at the Census conducted in 2016, comprised 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had a dwelling structure of 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings during the same period. The home ownership rate in Kempsey was 38.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.6% and rented dwellings at 30.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Kempsey was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,330. The median weekly rent figure for Kempsey was recorded at $285, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $300. Nationally, Kempsey's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, as reported in 2017, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 for the same year.

Kempsey has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.2% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.3.

Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (36.2%). Educational participation is high, with 33.4% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 13.2% in primary, 10.2% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.2% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kempsey has 258 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 105 individual routes that collectively facilitate 1,126 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 185 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 160 trips per day across all routes, translating to about four weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover stands at approximately 46%, covering around 7,537 people, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (11.0%). Conversely, 56.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 58.0% in Rest of NSW. As of Kempsey's population structure, 21.1% are aged 65 and over (3,459 people), lower than the 28.1% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors generally align with those of the broader population.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey had a cultural diversity below average, with 85.7% citizens, 92.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 57.0%, compared to 54.2% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (31.8%), English (30.6%), and Australian Aboriginal (12.4%).

Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Maltese at 0.5% in Kempsey vs 0.4% regionally, Irish at 7.8% vs 8.7%, and Samoan at 0.1% vs 0.1%.

Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

Kempsey's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows a prominent group of 0-4 year-olds at 6.6%, while the 65-74 age group is smaller at 11.5% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 10.9% to 12.2%, and the 0-4 cohort increased from 5.4% to 6.6%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group declined from 13.0% to 12.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Kempsey. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 24%, adding 485 residents to reach 2,506. In contrast, population declines are forecasted for the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups.