Kempsey

Population growth drivers in Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kempsey's population is around 16,588 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 934 people (6.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,654 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,232 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 126 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 85 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Kempsey's 6.0% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (5.2%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 67.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, an above-median population growth for regional areas nationally is projected, with the area expected to expand by 2,793 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 14.7% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Kempsey when compared nationally

Kempsey has recorded around 43 residential properties granted approval annually, with 216 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 11 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.9 people per year moving to the area per new home constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), suggesting solid demand that supports property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $283,000, consistent with regional patterns. Additionally, $8.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, reflecting the area's residential character.

Compared to the rest of NSW, Kempsey records markedly lower building activity (51.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity of new homes typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is similarly below the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New development consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The estimated count of 488 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Population forecasts indicate Kempsey will gain 2,437 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 12 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Kempsey possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 7.6%. As of December 2025, 5,991 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 3.7% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (49.3% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a low 6.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a particular employment specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 2.5% versus the regional average of 5.1%. While local employment opportunities exist in the area, it appears many residents commute elsewhere for work, based on the count of Census working population to local population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force decreased by 1.2% combined with employment decreasing by 2.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 1.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where employment contracted by 1.2%, the labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Kempsey. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Kempsey SA2's median income among taxpayers is $44,318, with an average of $50,921. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $48,245 (median) and $55,433 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Kempsey all fall between the 6th and 6th percentiles nationally. Looking at income distribution, 28.8% of the population (4,777 individuals) fall within the $800 - 1,499 income range, diverging from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile.

Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Kempsey, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Kempsey was in line with that of Regional NSW, at 38.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (30.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $285, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Kempsey's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 68.2% of all households, comprising 21.8% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households comprising 2.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (11.3%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 44.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (36.2%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 33.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.2% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 262 active transport stops operating within Kempsey, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 94 individual routes, collectively providing 1,034 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 189 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 6.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 147 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 3 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Critical health challenges are evident across Kempsey, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A range of health conditions have marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% of the total population (~7,647 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW, while the national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.4% and 11.0% of residents, respectively, while 56.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 21.0% of residents aged 65 and over (3,476 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 85.7% of its population being citizens, 92.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Kempsey is Christianity, which makes up 57.0% of people in Kempsey, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Kempsey are Australian, comprising 31.8% of the population, English, comprising 30.6% of the population, and Australian Aboriginal, comprising 12.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.6%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Maltese is notably overrepresented at 0.5% of Kempsey (vs 0.4% regionally), Irish at 7.8% (vs 8.8%) and Samoan at 0.1% (vs 0.1%).

Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 41 years, Kempsey's median age is somewhat lower than the Regional NSW average of 43 yet modestly exceeds the 38-year national average. The 0 - 4 age group shows strong representation at 6.9% compared to Regional NSW, whereas the 65 - 74 cohort is less prevalent at 11.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.9% to 12.5% of the population, while the 0 to 4 cohort increased from 5.4% to 6.9%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Kempsey's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 26%, adding 467 residents to reach 2,256. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 cohorts.