Kempsey

Population growth drivers in Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Kempsey's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 16,274. This figure represents a growth of 620 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,654. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 16,272 in June 2025 and the addition of 127 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 83 persons per square kilometer. Kempsey's growth rate of 4.0% since the census is close to that of its SA3 area, which grew by 4.3%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 53.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to population projections, Kempsey is expected to experience above median growth, increasing by 2,383 persons to reach approximately 18,657 by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 14.6% over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Kempsey when compared nationally

Kempsey has recorded approximately 43 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 216 homes were approved, with an additional 22 approved so far in FY-26. On average, around 2.9 people have moved to the area per new home constructed over these five years, indicating solid demand that supports property values.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $283,000, which is consistent with regional patterns. In FY-26, $8.6 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Kempsey records markedly lower building activity, 51.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, which is also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

The estimated count of 488 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Kempsey is forecasted to gain 2,381 residents by 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 12 infrastructure projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Kempsey has a diverse workforce with both white and blue-collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 7.6% as of December 2025. There are 5,991 employed residents, with an unemployment rate 3.7% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation is lower at 49.0%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%.

According to Census data, only 6.5% work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance has a higher share of employment (1.3 times the regional level), while professional & technical jobs are underrepresented at 2.5%, compared to Regional NSW's average of 5.1%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

Between December 2024 and December 2025, Kempsey's labour force decreased by 1.2% and employment fell by 2.4%, leading to a 1.2 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kempsey's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Kempsey SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $44,318 and an average of $50,921. This is below the national average. Regional NSW's median was $52,390 with an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $48,892 (median) and $56,176 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Kempsey all fall between the 6th and 6th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals 28.8% of the population (4,686 individuals) earn within the $800 - 1,499 range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 83.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile.

Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Kempsey's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.9% houses and 9.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kempsey was at 38.7%, similar to Regional NSW, with the rest being mortgaged (30.6%) or rented (30.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent was $285, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Kempsey's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Kempsey has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.2% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 26.6% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.8%, with lone person households at 28.9% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.4%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 44.7% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 36.2%. Educational participation is high, with 33.4% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 13.2% in primary education, 10.2% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kempsey has 262 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 94 routes providing 1,034 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 189 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuting is outward-bound due to the residential nature of the area. Cars remain the dominant mode at 95%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.4 per dwelling. Only 6.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census).

Service frequency averages 147 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 3 weekly trips per stop. The map accompanying the analysis shows the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Kempsey faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 46% (around 7,502 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.4%) and mental health issues (11.0%). Conversely, 56.2% claim no medical ailments, lower than Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age residents face notable chronic condition rates. Kempsey has 21.4% of residents aged 65 and over (3,474 people), slightly below Regional NSW's 23.4%. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with its population comprising 85.7% citizens, 92.8% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kempsey, accounting for 57.0% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (31.8%), English (30.6%), and Australian Aboriginal (12.4%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 4.6%.

Notably, Maltese representation in Kempsey is higher at 0.5%, compared to 0.4% regionally, while Irish representation stands at 7.8% versus 8.8% regionally, and Samoan representation is equal at 0.1%.

Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

Kempsey's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 0-4 are particularly prominent at 6.7%, while the 85+ group is smaller at 2.1% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and now, the 35-44 age group has grown from 10.9% to 12.5%, and the 0-4 cohort has increased from 5.4% to 6.7%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 12.1%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Kempsey. The 45-54 age group is projected to grow by 26%, adding 455 residents to reach 2,197. In contrast, declines are projected for the 15-24 and 65-74 cohorts.