Kempsey

Population growth drivers in Kempsey are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Kempsey's population is around 16,274 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 620 people (4.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,654 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,272 from the ABS as of June 2025 and an additional 127 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 83 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Kempsey's 4.0% growth since census positions it within 0.3 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 53.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of national regional areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,383 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting reflecting an increase of 14.6% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Kempsey recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

In terms of residential construction, approvals have been granted for roughly 43 properties on an annual basis in Kempsey, with a total of 216 homes authorized over the previous 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) alongside 33 during FY-26 so far. The local population expansion averaged 2.6 people per year for each newly built residence over the prior 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), indicating consistent demand that underpins real estate values, while new dwellings carry a typical building cost of $283,000, aligning with broader regional trends. Furthermore, commercial building approvals have reached $8.6 million during the current financial year, highlighting the predominantly residential character of the locality.

Building activity within Kempsey is quiet, registering 51.0% below the regional average per person compared to the Rest of NSW. Such low volume in new home completions generally supports prices and demand for existing houses. This rate also sits below the national benchmark, pointing to the mature nature of the area and indicating possible planning restrictions. Residential construction comprises 80.0% standalone houses and 20.0% medium and high-density projects, which preserves the historically low-density neighborhood layout dominated by family dwellings that attract buyers desiring spacious living. The ratio of 491 people in the locality for each housing approval points to a very low-intensity development climate.

Demographic projections indicate that Kempsey will add 2,381 residents through to 2041, according to the most recent AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If the current pace of home building remains unchanged, the delivery of new housing could fall behind population growth, potentially heightening competition among purchasers and supporting upward price trends.

Kempsey has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Local infrastructure updates, planning programs, and major building works significantly impact regional performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 active projects poised to influence the district. Key developments include the Health Precinct Development West Kempsey, West Kempsey Social and Affordable Housing, the Telecommunications Facility West Kempsey, and the Kempsey Riverside Precinct Foreshore Stabilisation, with the main relevant projects detailed in the list below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Kempsey face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

The local workforce is distributed between white-collar and blue-collar occupations, with a strong presence in essential services, alongside an unemployment rate of 8.2%. As of March 2026, there are 5,836 employed residents, although the local jobless rate sits 4.1% above the Regional NSW benchmark of 4.1%, pointing to potential for economic progress, while labor force participation is notably low at 48.0% compared to 60.6% across Regional NSW. Data from the Census reveals a low 6.5% of the workforce worked from home, though this figure may have been influenced by COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.

Resident employment is primarily centered within health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The region exhibits a distinct concentration in health care & social assistance, where the employment proportion is 1.3 times the regional rate. In contrast, professional & technical roles are underrepresented, accounting for 2.5% of employment compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Although there are local jobs available, comparison between the Census working population and the resident population suggests a significant portion of the workforce commutes to other areas for employment.

Based on analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch, the local labor force contracted by 3.4% during the year leading to March 2026, while overall employment fell by 4.3%, leading to a 0.9 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. This trend diverged from Regional NSW, which experienced a 0.9% drop in employment, a 0.4% reduction in the labor force, and a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia as of May-25 offer additional context on prospective local demand trends in Kempsey. These five-year and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth patterns. While nationwide employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the expected growth rates vary considerably across different industries. Applying these sector-specific forecasts to the employment distribution in Kempsey suggests local jobs could grow by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, representing a simple weighted projection for illustration that does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to the latest ATO postcode statistics released for financial year 2023, the median taxpayer income in the Kempsey SA2 is $44,318, with an average of $50,921. This sits below the national benchmarks, and compares to a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated figures for March 2026 would be roughly $48,892 for the median and $56,176 for the average. In the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in Kempsey were situated between the 6th and 6th percentiles nationally. Regarding the distribution of income, 28.8% of residents (4,686 individuals) earn in the $800 - 1,499 range, which differs from the broader region where the $1,500 - 2,999 band is most common at 29.9%. Affordability is highly constrained, with only 83.4% of income remaining after housing costs, placing the area in the 7th percentile.

Kempsey is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Residential property types in Kempsey at the time of the most recent Census consisted of 90.9% standalone houses and 9.1% alternative dwellings such as townhouses, units, and other structures, compared to Regional NSW where houses made up 82.6% and other dwellings constituted 17.4%. Home ownership levels in Kempsey matched the Regional NSW average of 38.7%, with the remaining properties split between mortgaged homes at 30.6% and rental properties at 30.7%. The typical monthly mortgage payment of $1,300 was lower than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, while the typical weekly rent was $285 compared to the regional figure of $330. On a national scale, Kempsey's mortgage costs are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rent payments are below the countrywide average of $375.

Kempsey has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up 68.2% of all households, consisting of 21.8% couples raising children, 26.6% couples without children, and 18.0% single parent households. The remaining 31.8% are non-family households, which include lone person households at 28.9% and shared group accommodation at 2.9% of the total. The typical household size of 2.5 residents is slightly larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Kempsey faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The locality faces educational hurdles, with university graduation rates of 11.3% falling well below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a difficulty and a chance for focused educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher education credential at 8.6%, followed by graduate diplomas at 1.4% and postgraduate degrees at 1.3%. Practical and vocational qualifications are common, with 44.7% of residents aged 15+ holding a trade certificate, including advanced diplomas at 8.5% and certificates at 36.2%.

Engagement in learning is high, with 33.4% of the population enrolled in an educational program. This proportion is divided into 13.2% in primary schools, 10.2% in high schools, and 2.2% in higher education institutions.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of local transit indicates there are 262 public transport stops in Kempsey, encompassing both rail and bus services. These locations are connected to 94 different routes, which provide a total of 1,034 passenger services each week. Access to transit is rated highly, with local residents living an average of 189 meters from the closest stop. Given the residential nature of the area, the vast majority of commuters travel out of the neighborhood, and private vehicles remain the primary transit mode at 95%. Households average 1.4 vehicles each. A minor portion of the workforce, 6.5%, worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

Transit routes average 147 runs per day, which translates to about 3 weekly services per individual stop. The map details the 100 closest transit stops relative to the center of the locality.

Health performance in Kempsey is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Significant health concerns are apparent in Kempsey based on AreaSearch's evaluation of death rates and the frequency of ongoing illnesses, with several medical conditions affecting both youth and elderly demographics. The proportion of residents with private health insurance is low at approximately 46% of the population (~7,502 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health conditions are the most prevalent health issues in the community, affecting 11.4 and 11.0% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 56.2% of residents reported having no long-term medical conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The workforce-aged population exhibits high rates of ongoing illnesses, posing health challenges. Residents aged 65 and over make up 21.4% of the local population (3,474 people), which is lower than the Regional NSW average of 23.4%. Seniors' health outcomes show challenges, with countrywide rankings generally corresponding to the broader community trends.

The latest Census data sees Kempsey placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kempsey displays lower levels of cultural diversity, with citizens making up 85.7% of the population, 92.8% of residents born in Australia, and 96.6% using only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religious affiliation, representing 57.0% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

Regarding family background and parents' birthplaces, the largest ancestral lines in Kempsey are Australian at 31.8%, English at 30.6%, and Australian Aboriginal at 12.4%, which is much higher than the regional average of 4.6%. Some other ancestries show variations: Maltese represents 0.5% in Kempsey (vs 0.4% in the region), Irish represents 7.8% (vs 8.8%), and Samoan represents 0.1% (vs 0.1%).

Kempsey's median age exceeds the national pattern

Kempsey's median age of 42 years is close to the Regional NSW average of 43, but older than the Australian median of 38 years. The local demographic has a prominent share of children aged 0 - 4 years (6.7%), while residents aged 85+ constitute a smaller share (2.1%) than is typical in Regional NSW. Since 2021, the 35 to 44 age bracket has risen from 10.9% to 12.5% of the population, and the 0 to 4 group grew from 5.4% to 6.7%. In contrast, the 55 to 64 bracket fell from 13.0% to 12.1%. Forecasts for 2041 suggest notable demographic shifts, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow the most at 26%, adding 455 people to reach 2,197, while the 15 to 24 and 65 to 74 brackets are expected to contract.