Manilla

Manilla is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the estimated population of the suburb of Manilla is around 2,612 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 2,386 people, marking a 9.5% rise over five years. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,457 in Jun 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 37 persons per square kilometer. Manilla's growth exceeded the SA4 region (4.9%) and Rest of NSW during this period. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66% to overall population gains, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future projections anticipate an above median population growth in Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with the suburb expected to expand by 364 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 10.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Manilla averaged approximately 7 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 39 homes. As of FY26, 9 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 2.7 people moved to the area annually for each new home constructed between FY21 and FY25, indicating solid demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $390,000.

This year has seen $1.0 million in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Manilla has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 62nd percentile nationally for development activity, though recent periods have shown an increase. This level reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 67.0% standalone homes and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 95.0% houses). With around 238 people per dwelling approval, Manilla shows a developing market.

Future projections estimate Manilla adding 269 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining with projected growth, but buyers may face growing competition as population increases.

Manilla has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No local infrastructure changes have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact this area. Key projects include New England REZ Transmission Project, New England Highway - Willow Tree to Uralla Safety Upgrade, Corridor Preservation For East Coast High Speed Rail, and Regional NSW Road Network Safety Improvements.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Manilla shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Manilla has a balanced workforce with representation from both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.2%.

The unemployment rate in Manilla is 0.7% lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is somewhat lower at 59.1%, compared to the Rest of NSW average of 61.5%. According to Census responses, a low 8.9% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

Manilla has a particular specialization in mining, with an employment share 2.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services show lower representation at 2.0%, compared to the regional average of 5.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.1% and labour force increased by 0.8%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.7 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Manilla's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023 shows Manilla's median income among taxpayers is $35,406. The average income in the suburb is $41,978. Both figures are below national averages. Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income in Manilla would be approximately $38,543, with the average being around $45,697. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, incomes in Manilla fall between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Incomes ranging from $400 to $799 per week account for 33.4% of Manilla's population (872 individuals), unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 to $2,999 range. The concentration of 41.3% in sub-$800 weekly brackets indicates economic challenges faced by a significant portion of the community. After housing costs, 85.9% of income remains, ranking at the 5th percentile nationally.

Manilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Manilla, as per the latest Census evaluation, 94.8% of dwellings were houses while 5.3% consisted of other types such as semi-detached units, apartments and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's dwelling structure where 82.6% were houses and 17.4% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Manilla stood at 44.9%, with mortgaged properties making up 27.5% and rented dwellings comprising another 27.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,083, significantly lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure for Manilla was recorded at $260, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Manilla's mortgage repayments were considerably lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Manilla features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.3% of all households, including 18.7% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 16.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.7%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Manilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (8.3%) and certificates (32.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.1% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 1.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manila has 86 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 10 different routes that collectively provide 180 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 142 meters from the nearest transport stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 93%, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8.9% of residents work from home, a figure that might reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 25 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Manilla is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Manila faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions impact both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 44% of the total population (around 1,139 people), compared to 51.9% in the rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 11.7% and 11.6% of residents respectively, while 54.1% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in the rest of NSW.

The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 27.7% of residents aged 65 and over (723 people), higher than the 23.4% in the rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings largely comparable to those of the general population.

The latest Census data sees Manilla placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manilla has a lower than average cultural diversity, with 90.1% of its population being Australian citizens, 94.2% born in Australia, and 98.3% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Manilla is Christianity, accounting for 64.5%, compared to the Rest of NSW's 55.9%. For ancestry, Australians make up 35.0% of Manilla's population, higher than the regional average of 30.0%.

English ancestry follows at 31.2%, and Australian Aboriginal at 10.8%, both higher than their respective regional averages of 27.6% and 4.6%. Notably, Hungarian (0.2%), Russian (0.2%), and Maltese (0.3%) ethnicities are present in Manilla at levels similar or slightly higher than the regional averages.

Manilla hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Manilla's median age of 48 years is significantly older than Rest of NSW's median age of 43 and higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that 65-74 year-olds make up a particularly prominent group at 15.2%, while the 25-34 age group is comparatively smaller at 9.4%. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is well above the national average of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 0 to 4 age group has grown from 4.9% to 5.5%, while the 45 to 54 age cohort has declined from 12.0% to 11.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Manilla's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041, with the 25-34 age group projected to grow steadily, increasing by 62 people (25%) from 245 to 308. Conversely, numbers in the 15-24 age range are expected to fall by 14.