Manilla

Manilla is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population for the suburb of Manilla is around 2,612, reflecting a growth of 226 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 9.5% rise from the previous population count of 2,386. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 2,457 in June 2024 and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 37 persons per square kilometer. Manilla's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (4.9%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning it as a growth leader in the area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 66.0% to overall population gains during recent periods, with other factors such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive contributors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by 366 persons, reflecting an increase of 8.1% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Manilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Manilla has experienced around 9 dwellings receiving development approval per year from FY-21 to FY-25. This totals an estimated 45 homes over the past five financial years. As of FY-26, 11 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built attracts 2.4 new residents per year, reflecting robust demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $390,000. In FY-26, $1.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Relative to Rest of NSW, Manilla shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person while it places among the 65th percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods.

Recent construction comprises 56.0% detached houses and 44.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 95.0% houses). This change reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles that require more diverse, affordable housing options. Manilla has around 217 people per dwelling approval, suggesting a developing market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Manilla is expected to grow by 211 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Manilla has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can significantly impact an area's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 0 projects that are likely to affect the area. Notable projects include New England REZ Transmission Project, New England Highway - Willow Tree to Uralla Safety Upgrade, Corridor Preservation For East Coast High Speed Rail, and Regional NSW Road Network Safety Improvements. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.5%, Manilla has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Manilla has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.5%, as per AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation. As of December 2025, 1,152 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Manilla stands at 57.9%, slightly below Regional NSW's 61.3%. Census responses show that only 8.9% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a notable concentration in mining, with employment levels at 2.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 2.0% compared to Regional NSW's 5.1%. The local job market appears limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and November 2025, Manilla experienced a labour force decrease of 0.7%, with employment decreasing by 1.5%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 1.2% and labour force decline by 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manilla's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Manilla's median income among taxpayers is $35,406. The average income in the suburb is $41,978. This is below the national average. In comparison, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Manilla's median income would be approximately $38,543 by September 2025, with the average estimated at around $45,697 during the same period. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Manilla fall between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In terms of income distribution, 33.4% of Manilla's community earns between $400 and $799 weekly (872 individuals). This is unlike regional trends where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. The concentration of 41.3% in sub-$800 weekly brackets highlights economic challenges faced by a significant portion of Manilla's community. After housing costs, 85.9% of income remains, which ranks at only the 5th percentile nationally.

Manilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Manilla's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 94.8% houses and 5.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manilla was at 44.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (27.5%) or rented (27.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Manilla was $260, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Manilla's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Manilla features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 62.3% of all households, including 18.7% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 16.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.7%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Manilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 10.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.3%) and certificates (32.6%). Educational participation is high, with 26.4% currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.1% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 1.4% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.1% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manila has 86 active public transport stops operating within the city. These stops are served by 10 different bus routes, offering a total of 180 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 142 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. The dominant mode of transportation is car, used by 93% of residents, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 25 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Manilla is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Manilla faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is extremely low at approximately 44% of Manilla's total population (around 1,139 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 11.7% and 11.6% of residents respectively. However, 54.1% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Manilla has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.4% (741 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. While senior health outcomes are generally aligned with national rankings, they present some challenges.

The latest Census data sees Manilla placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manilla's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 90.1% of its population being Australian citizens, 94.2% born in Australia, and 98.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion in Manilla, comprising 64.5% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (35.0%), English (31.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (10.8%).

These figures were substantially higher than regional averages of 30.0%, 26.4%, and 4.6%, respectively. Notably, Hungarian (0.2%) and Russian (0.2%) ethnic groups were equally represented in Manilla as regionally, while Maltese showed a slight decrease from the regional average of 0.4%.

Manilla hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Manilla's median age is 48 years, which is older than Regional NSW's median of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's median of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 make up 15.5% of the population, a larger proportion than in Regional NSW and more than double the national average of 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data indicates the 0 to 4 age group has grown from 4.9% to 5.7%, while the 45 to 54 cohort has decreased from 12.0% to 11.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Manilla's age profile will change significantly. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow steadily, increasing by 54 people (22%) from 248 to 303. Conversely, the number of those aged 15 to 24 is expected to decrease by 20.