Manilla

Manilla is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Manilla's population is estimated at around 2,527 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 141 people (5.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,386 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,474 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 35 persons per square kilometer. Manilla's growth of 5.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.6%) and the Rest of NSW, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 66.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of non-metropolitan areas nationally is projected, with the suburb expected to grow by 333 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 11.1% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Manilla, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Manilla has experienced around 9 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years to June 2021. This totals an estimated 45 homes. In the current financial year ending June 2026, 14 approvals have been recorded so far. The population decline in recent years has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average construction cost value of $390,000. There have also been $1.0 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Relative to the rest of NSW, Manilla records about three-quarters the building activity per person while it places among the 66th percentile of areas assessed nationally, though building activity has increased in recent years. New development consists of 56.0% detached houses and 44.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 95.0% houses.

This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 213 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Future projections show Manilla adding 280 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience increased competition as the population grows.

Manilla has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

No changes can influence an area's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact the area. Key projects include New England REZ Transmission Project, New England Highway - Willow Tree to Uralla Safety Upgrade, Corridor Preservation For East Coast High Speed Rail, and Regional NSW Road Network Safety Improvements. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Despite maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.5%, Manilla has experienced recent job losses, resulting in a below average employment performance ranking when compared nationally

Manilla has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.5%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 1,097 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Manilla lags at 55.3%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census responses show that only 8.9% of residents work from home. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Mining has a notable concentration, with employment levels at 2.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 2.0% of Manilla's workforce compared to Regional NSW's 5.1%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population counts. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 2.0%, while employment declined by 2.8%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment could expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Manilla's employment mix indicates potential local employment growth of 5.9% over five years and 12.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023 indicates median income among taxpayers in Manilla suburb was $35,406. Average income stood at $41,978. Both figures are below national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively across Regional NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 10.32% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated median income as of March 2026 would be approximately $39,060. Estimated average income for the same period is $46,310. Census 2021 data shows household, family and personal incomes in Manilla fall between 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally. Income distribution in Manilla has 33.4% of locals (844 people) earning between $400 - $799 weekly, differing from surrounding region where $1,500 - $2,999 category predominates at 29.9%. High concentration of 41.3% in sub-$800 weekly brackets suggests economic challenges for significant portion of community. After housing costs, 85.9% of income remains, ranking at 5th percentile nationally.

Manilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Manilla, as per the latest Census evaluation, 94.8% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 5.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Manilla stood at 44.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.5% and rented ones also at 27.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Manilla was recorded at $260, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Manilla's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,083 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Manilla features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.3% of all households, including 18.7% couples with children, 24.7% couples without children, and 16.7% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.7%, with lone person households at 34.8% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Manilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.9%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 40.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.3%) and certificates (32.6%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.1% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Manila has 86 active public transport stops operating within it, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 10 different routes, offering a total of 180 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing 142 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward. The car remains the primary mode of transportation at 93%, while 5% walk. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, only 8.9% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 25 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Manilla is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Manila faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at an extremely low rate of approximately 44% (~1,102 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.7%) and asthma (11.6%), while 54.1% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 28.6% (722 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings, presenting some challenges.

The latest Census data sees Manilla placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Manilla was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 90.1% of its population being Australian citizens and 94.2% born in Australia. English is spoken exclusively at home by 98.3% of Manilla's residents. Christianity is the predominant religion in Manilla, practiced by 64.5%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (35.0%), English (31.2%), and Australian Aboriginal (10.8%). Notably, Hungarian, Russian, and Maltese ethnicities were found to be relatively overrepresented in Manilla compared to regional averages: 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively.

Manilla hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Manilla's median age of 48 years is significantly older than Regional NSW's median age of 43 and higher than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that 65-74 year-olds make up a prominent 15.5% of the population, while those aged 25-34 comprise only 8.9%. This concentration of people aged 65-74 is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 0-4 age group has grown from 4.9% to 5.5%, while the 45-54 age cohort has declined from 12.0% to 11.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Manilla's age profile will evolve significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow steadily, increasing by 60 people (27%) from 224 to 285. Conversely, the number of people aged 15-24 is expected to decrease by 10.