Narrabri

Narrabri has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Narrabri's population was around 6,951 as of November 2025. This reflected an increase of 53 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,898. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,965 in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. The population density was 38 persons per square kilometer. Narrabri's growth of 0.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 0.3%. Natural growth contributed approximately 64.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch used NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipated lower quartile growth for Australia's regional areas, with Narrabri expected to increase by 39 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 0.8% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Narrabri is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Narrabri has seen approximately 10 dwellings receiving development approval each year. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 50 homes were approved, with one more approved in FY26 so far. Despite a falling population during this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost of $358,000. This year, $15.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Narrabri has 83.0% higher new home approvals per person, offering greater choice for buyers. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. The current level is also lower than the national average, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent construction consists of 75.0% detached houses and 25.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes. With an estimated 1045 people per dwelling approval, Narrabri has a quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate that Narrabri will add 53 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Narrabri has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Narrabri Place Strategy, Newell Highway Upgrade - Heavy Duty Pavement Upgrades from Narrabri to Moree, Stoney Creek Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), and Narrabri Solar Farm and BESS.

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Employment conditions in Narrabri demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Narrabri has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, diverse sector representation, an unemployment rate of 2.3%, and estimated employment growth of 0.5% in the past year as of September 2025. There are 4,046 residents employed while the unemployment rate is 1.5% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 61.1%. The dominant sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and mining. Mining has a strong presence with an employment share 3.6 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance has limited presence at 13.0% compared to 16.9% regionally. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

From September 2024 to September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.5%, labour force increased by 0.8%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National forecasts suggest employment should increase by 5.8% over five years and 12.5% over ten years in Narrabri, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The Narrabri SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $52,353. The average income stood at $62,145 during the same period. These figures are below those of Rest of NSW, which had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes for Narrabri SA2 as of September 2025 are approximately $58,955 and $69,981 respectively. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Narrabri rank modestly, between the 38th and 52nd percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 31.5% of individuals in Narrabri earn between $1,500 and $2,999, consistent with broader trends across metropolitan regions showing 29.9% in the same category. Housing costs allow for retention of 87.5% of income, but disposable income ranks below average at the 43rd percentile.

Narrabri is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Narrabri's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.7% houses and 13.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 87.8% houses and 12.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Narrabri was at 34.0%, with the rest being mortgaged (32.3%) or rented (33.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,443, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in Narrabri was $260, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $220. Nationally, Narrabri's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,443 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Narrabri has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.3% of all households, including 25.6% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 11.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.7%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.4 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.5.

Narrabri faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (31.0%). Educational participation is high at 29.8%, with 13.0% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 13.0% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Narrabri's public transport system operates 125 active stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 35 individual routes, facilitating 372 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents on average located 239 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 53 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 2 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Narrabri is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Narrabri faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~3,517 people). The most common medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, impacting 9.8 and 9.5% of residents respectively. 63.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 66.7% across Rest of NSW. The area has 21.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,470 people), which is higher than the 18.8% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The latest Census data sees Narrabri placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Narrabri had a cultural diversity index below average, with 90.1% citizens, 94.5% born in Australia, and 96.5% speaking English only at home as of the 2016 Census. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 64.7%, compared to 68.1% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (37.8%), English (28.4%), and Australian Aboriginal (10.6%).

Notably, Samoan ancestry was overrepresented in Narrabri at 0.1%, while it was not present regionally.

Narrabri's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Narrabri is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Narrabri has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (14.0%) but fewer residents aged 65-74 (10.8%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group increased from 6.4% to 7.7% of Narrabri's population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group decreased from 14.5% to 12.8%, and the 55 to 64 age group dropped from 13.4% to 12.1%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Narrabri's age structure. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 34%, reaching 720 people from the current 535. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 57% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 65 to 74 and 15 to 24 age groups are projected to see reduced numbers.