Tamworth - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Tamworth - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Tamworth - East's population was around 22,975 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 1,615 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 21,360 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 22,606 in June 2024 and an additional 275 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 224 persons per square kilometer. Tamworth - East's growth rate of 7.6% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.4%) and the non-metro area, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Natural growth contributed approximately 44.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends, a population increase of just below the median of non-metropolitan areas nationally is expected, with Tamworth - East projected to expand by 2,690 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 10.1% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Tamworth - East when compared nationally

Tamworth - East has seen approximately 85 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 426 homes approved during this period. Additionally, 16 homes have been approved in FY26 so far. On average, each dwelling built over these five years has resulted in an increase of 2.9 new residents annually, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average expected construction cost value for new homes is $514,000. This year, $13.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting moderate levels of commercial development compared to the rest of NSW. Tamworth - East has 16.0% less new development per person than other areas in NSW and ranks at the 38th percentile nationally, offering limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. The composition of new development is 63.0% detached dwellings and 37.0% attached dwellings, providing a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets.

This shift from the current housing mix (86.0% houses) reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The estimated population density is 456 people per dwelling approval, indicating a quiet, low activity development environment. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Tamworth - East is projected to grow by 2,316 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-suited to meet future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Tamworth - East has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 21 projects likely impacting the region. Key projects include Goonoo Goonoo Commercial Precinct, Tamworth Sports and Entertainment Precinct, Goonoo Goonoo Road Upgrade, and Hillvue Public Preschool. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Tamworth - East demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Tamworth - East has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, unemployment is low at 2.2%, and employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.1%.

As of June 2025, 12,779 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was standard at 60.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 2.3% compared to 5.3% regionally. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data comparison. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 4.1%, labour force by 3.4%, and unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tamworth - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.0% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The median taxpayer income in Tamworth - East SA2 was $50,607 and the average was $60,968 according to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022. This is lower than national averages; Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,989 (median) and $68,656 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Tamworth - East rank modestly, between the 27th and 42nd percentiles. Income distribution data shows that 31.7% of locals (7,283 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 category, similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Tamworth - East; only 84.7% of income remains, ranking at the 28th percentile.

Tamworth - East is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Tamworth - East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consists of 86.2% houses and 13.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW has 89.5% houses and 10.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tamworth - East stands at 33.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented ones at 35.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment is $1,452, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,500. The median weekly rent figure in Tamworth - East is $300, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's figure but significantly lower than the national average of $375 for mortgage repayments and $489 for rents.

Tamworth - East has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 66.9% of all households, including 24.3% couples with children, 27.4% couples without children, and 13.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.1%, with lone person households at 29.6% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, aligning with the average in the Rest of NSW.

Tamworth - East faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 16.0%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (31.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 29.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.7% in primary education, 9.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Tamworth - East shows 471 active transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 80 individual routes that collectively provide 830 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 113 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 118 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately one weekly trip per stop.

Health performance in Tamworth - East is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Tamworth - East faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups experience high rates of common health conditions.

Approximately half of the total population (11,487 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 10.5% and 10.0% of residents respectively. However, 62.1% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's figure of 63.4%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (19.6%, or 4,496 people), with their health outcomes presenting challenges broadly in line with the general population's profile.

Tamworth - East is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Tamworth-East had a cultural diversity below average, with 88.6% citizens, 91.3% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 62.7%, compared to 63.6% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (33.1%), English (29.5%), and Australian Aboriginal (9.6%).

Notably, Vietnamese were overrepresented at 0.5% (vs regional 0.3%), Irish at 7.9% (vs 8.0%), and German at 3.0% (vs 2.9%).

Tamworth - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Tamworth - East has a median age of 38, which is lower than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 but equivalent to Australia's national norm of 38. The age group of 25-34 years old shows strong representation in Tamworth - East at 14.7%, compared to Rest of NSW. However, the 65-74 age cohort is less prevalent at 10.2%. According to the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 13.4% to 14.7% of the population in Tamworth - East. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age cohort has decreased from 11.4% to 9.9%. Demographic modeling suggests that by 2041, Tamworth - East's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 24%, adding 821 people and reaching a total of 4,199 from the current figure of 3,377. Meanwhile, population declines are anticipated for the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.